Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Gatling

Somewhere under all of that reactive armor is a British Challenger 2 tank in Ukraine......

https://twitter.com/uarealitynow/status/1640742788663853058?s=20

Say my name

https://spyscape.com/article/kgb-secrets-how-double-agent-jack-barsky-spied-on-america-and-cheated-death

The story of how an East German became a Sleeper Agent for the KGB in the US.

Seanmadradubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120412189#Comment_120412189

Mistreating POWs is stupid because in the long run it increases your own losses.

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1640621188182319105

More fakery from the land of lies.

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1640321732480315398

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120412495#Comment_120412495

Bring back that nice Irish fella. Everything was grand when he was in charge.

Raoul Duke III

Stepping away from the Twitter feed of events for a minute, what potential scenarios do we see for how this war ends? I'll attempt a few.

(Realistic ones please, not the plot of some Tom Clancy novel)

1. Ukraine - total victory. All pre-2014 borders restored. Russian troops defeated and driven out. I'd assign this a fairly low probability given how entrenched the Russians are in the Donbas and Crimea. Even if this unlikely event occurred, what would be the terms of any settlement? Hard to see Putin (or any neo-Putin) accepting terms.
2. Ukraine - partial victory. They take back lands, probably in the Zaporhizia\Mariupol direction, cutting off Crimea but are unable to launch a full-scale invasion of occupied Donetsk. I think this is the most likely short-term scenario given the NATO-grade weaponry that Ukraine is currently amassing for its forthcoming offensive. Again though, what happens when this scenario unfolds. What is the political resolution?
3. Russia - total victory. Seems highly unlikely, given their abject military performance to date. Even if they 'won', they would occupy a wasteland and would face an insurgency that makes their Afghani experience look like a picnic.
4. Frozen conflict. It becomes another, much larger, version of Nagorno-Karabakh. 75% of Ukraine remains under Ukrainian sovereignty with occasional border conflict. No political settlement.

The one thing that jumps out at you when you think about it some more is this; the military angle is the (relatively) easy bit. The political aspect is close to insurmountable.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120413027#Comment_120413027

That photo was taken in 2012, Germany.

Well, the original was, anyway. The photoshopping is more recent.

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1640711169383227394

Another drone found near moscow.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120412189#Comment_120412189

Democracy is a drain on resources. Yet it is also the very thing that Ukraine is fighting for. Whats the point of resisting Russia's troops only to become just like them anyway?

Youre not seriously suggesting that they execute POWs are you?

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120412752#Comment_120412752

Unlike his opposite number in Russia.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120413267#Comment_120413267

Ah crap ...

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120413251#Comment_120413251

I think it is going to be hard to describe any outcome from this conflict as a victory but I don't agree with giving such a low probability to Ukraine retaking its territory that the moskovytes have illegally occupied. Trench warfare was at its peak over a hundred years ago and even then the first mechanised tanks and combat aircraft were pointing the way to it becoming less of a factor in deciding success. The moskovytes may have had time to dig in positions in Ukraine particularly in areas where they have troops in place since 2014 but tactics to overcome entrenched positions have had a long time to develop.

Artillery and precise drone strikes with armoured assault groups including main battle tanks I think will break the moskovyte lines in a number of places and with mobile armour and good intelligence on the supply lines used to support the most fortified positions I would be hopeful that large groups of moskovyte troops will be cut off and forced to surrender to Ukrainian forces. With his forces mostly pushed out of Ukraine or captured or dead I think putin will most likely fall out a window and some other figure from the kremlin will be authorised to accept a settlement that allows captured troops return home and a non aggression pact with Ukraine be agreed. Ukraine now has a large motivated army going up against moskovyte troops who simply do not want to be invading a neighbour. They have got so desperate to patch up their loses that putin has just decreed that he will take soldiers of any age without restriction. I see no reason to doubt the reported figures from Ukraine that over 170,000 moskovytes have been killed in Ukraine and the equipment losses recorded also point to putin's army being much less able to do anything now compared to when he launched the major offensive at the start of last year.

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-removes-upper-age-limit-conscripts-national-guard-ukraine-1790807?utm_source=Flipboard&utm_medium=App&utm_campaign=Partnerships

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120411406#Comment_120411406

I take your point, but in lieu of Russians rising up against Putin, I'll take them fleeing the country and robbing the regime of cannon fodder.

Should they be welcomed with open arms? Not necessarily. Welcomed with strict conditions, maybe more like. Must sign an affidavit that they do not support the Invasion of Ukraine and be incentivised to work in industries/charities which support Ukrainian refugees, as two suggestions to start with.

maebee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120413737#Comment_120413737

Barrel scraping desperation.

Gatling

Busy night in melitopol last night

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1640968581985841154?s=20

Gatling

Looks like a Ukrainan mig 29 was lost along with it's pilot yesterday

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1640823424053379072?s=20

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120413737#Comment_120413737

I think we all are tempted to give credence to the theory that, having been thwarted militarily in Ukraine, that there will be some kind of (usually vague and unspecified) political regime change in Russia that will lead to a more amenable Russian government i.e. one that is willing to compromise on Ukraine and indeed with the West generally.

I think that is beyond optimistic. Putin is at the apex of a carefully constructed power vertical - even if he dies or is somehow deposed (and the scenarios proposed here are usually of the Hollywood variety), then his replacement will also come from within that power vertical. There won't suddenly be a flowering of democracy in Russia. If you want another real world example, look to another aggressive rogue nation; North Korea. We've been waiting many decades for the regime there to collapse under the weight of its own contradictions and it has never happened.

This isn't a Japan or Germany 1945 scenario. Russia will not be occupied and totally defeated in the form of unconditional surrender. It has lost and probably will lose even more in its war of imperial conquest (lets call it what it is) in Ukraine but, unfortunately, that does not axiomatically lead to political change.

Raoul Duke III

Returning to the frozen conflict theme, we need to remember that is exactly the situation that Ukraine was in from 2014-2022. Any return to this would just represent the status quo.

The more I think about this, the more likely that outcome seems. The open question being what lines on the map would demarcate the boundaries between sovereign Ukrainian territory and illegally occupied fake Russian 'republics'.

(note that this is clearly not the outcome any of us want, but it seems to be the most realistic)

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120414214#Comment_120414214

It's not going to happen, ukraine will retake all of their sovereign territories back including Crimea, this won't be a frozen conflict, Putin went with a frozen conflict to deny Ukraine a chance to join either the eu or nato eventually, now's he went with full invasion all bets are off there will be no negotiated settlement,they won't be giving away any of their sovereign territory to Russia because in a year or 5 years time they will come back for more,

Russia will be pushed out of Ukraine,it's the only way this gets settled

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120414214#Comment_120414214

That's what I worry will be the outcome too. I especially worry that the US will lose interest in supporting Ukraine once Biden is gone and Russia will be able to push the frontline deeper into Ukraine. I feel the Ukrainians really need to retake territory this spring/summer because it may be their last chance.

AerLingus747

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120412811#Comment_120412811

I'm not picking anything... it's a simple fact, if Russia are so concerned about their POW's, how about:

1) Leave the country

or

2) Treat Ukrainian POW's better

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120414355#Comment_120414355

in 1917, there was a clear groundswell against the Tsar, who had clearly lost his grip on power, and a host of alternatives.

Can we say the same in 2022?

1. Is there a clear opposition to Putin? Is the population generally opposed to him?
2. Where are the modern-day Social Revolutionaries, the Mensheviks, the Bolsheviks?
3. Could we even identify a modern-day Kerensky?

AerLingus747

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120412974#Comment_120412974

Nobody is saying they can or should... however over a year in of Ukrainian's treating Russian POW's in over 99% of cases with a lot more dignity and respect when it wasn't ever returned, you can expect patience to be wearing thin on a lot of battle hardened Ukrainian's..

Your armchair expertise is really showing when you're blatantly overlooking any sort of psychological aspect as to why there is an increase of Russian POW mistreatment.

Unfortunately, this plays right into the Russian propaganda.

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120414492#Comment_120414492

Also Tsar Nicholas was more direct about being in day to day command of the army which made the poor performance on the battlefield and poor conditions of the soldiers more directly his fault in the eyes of the population. Putin still has plenty of generals and a defence minister to blame for his own decisions.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120414344#Comment_120414344

This is my concern too. It might actually be Russian strategy to hold the line as long as possible in hope that Putin’s puppet Trump gets back into the White House or another similar MAGA-aligned cretin who has no real love for democracy.

I too also feel it important for them to successfully drive the lines forward this year. A successful Ukraine in battle makes it easier to sell the idea of arming them and providing military aid.

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120414327#Comment_120414327

Even if your highly optimistic scenario occurs, you could still have a frozen conflict. It would just be based along the 2014 borders.

I also think it's very optimistic to think that Ukraine could conquer back Donetsk city. Look how hard it is for Russia to take a much, much smaller city in Bakhmut for example. Defence is easier than attack, and Russia still, in spite of their awful tactics and leadership, has a lot of men and weaponry to throw into the conflict.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be very happy if Ukraine could push Russia back into its own territory for good. I just don't share the same probabilistic assessment as you. Time will prove us right or wrong.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120414515#Comment_120414515

If Ukraine mean to retake all of Donbass, Donetsk City is going to be the messiest fight of all, probably worse than Crimea in my opinion.

It’s not impossible though. If the Russians can be successful routed on the field they might be running back to the international border to protect themselves. I get the impression that there’s no real love between the DPR and RU forces with some mention of them using people from their opposite number as cannon fodder. The DPR forces themselves might not be in a good enough state to resist a full AFU assault on the city without RU support.

Even then, it would be an ugly fight and best case would be encirclement and a DPR surrender.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120414512#Comment_120414512

Pretty sure that IS the strategy at this juncture. Putin likely fancies his chances of remaining in Ukraine until November 2024.

Of the two Republicans most likely to run/win, both fall squarely into the 'Russian asset' category.

What's probably more concerning than who is POTUS is what their Congress looks like. They're the one who actually pass these bills to give Ukraine another X billion in military aid.

If the worst happens there, then Europe must severely up its game. There is a massive worry here, though. The extent to which a deep red USA washes its hands of the conflict would be directly proportional to the credibility of Russian nuclear threats against European countries, like Poland, who decided to get directly (and unilaterally) involved in the conflict. And Russia might even be free to use tactical nukes and chemical weapons in the battlefield with no comeback apart from "widespread international condemnation". About as much use as "thoughts and prayers".

Fastpud

There are a couple of things to be taken from the current situation

1. It’s clear that Russia can only do slow grinding advances at massive losses -but unfortunately they seem willing to keep doing this.
2. A Ukrainian blitzkrieg attack in the spring / summer smashing to the coast with a subsequent over all Russian army collapse seems like wishful thinking.
3. The coming Ukrainian attack will more than likely be successful at a tactical level rather than strategic making gains but not ending the war
4. It’s going to take a few more years until Russia completely runs out of men and material so the west need to keep supplying ukraine in great quantities.
5. Given the ongoing destruction of Ukraine with no corresponding destruction of Russia’s infrastructure means the cost is so unbalanced there no incentive for Russia to look for peace
6. The big risk is the US election in 2024. The US is really the main nation with the deep pockets and large qty of kit who can sustain Ukraine. If that pipeline is reduced can any other nation(s) pick up the slack?

I hope the upcoming Ukrainian offensive is wildly successfully but I fear this is going to go on for years with neither side able to deliver a knockout punch

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120414158#Comment_120414158

Sorry not to be clear but when I said that when Ukraine's looming counteroffensive has had a major impact on the moskovyte army in Ukraine that putin would fall out a window I should have simply said that a group in the Kremlin will have him elliminated. I did not intend to suggest there would be some peace loving government formed in a political regime change but meant to say that some one from the Kremlin would come forward to be the face of the existing moskovyte leadership grouping that will have lost patience with putin's delusions of muskovyte military superiority which has clearly been shown to be false by their failures in Ukraine.

It's just an opinion but I think even non peace loving Kremlin staff will realise that if they continue to destroy their military in Ukraine the russian federation will no longer exist and a lot of the republics more distant from moskow will align themselves with China rather than continue to send their young people to be fodder for putin's dreams of a revitalised soviet style empire. Survival is a great motivator and when it filters through to the people behind putin that he is no longer doing the right things to keep them safe his time will be up and maybe one of his alleged illnesses will suddenly prove terminal and allow the regime change direction without admitting to responsibility for putin's mistakes.