Russia - threadbanned users in OP

cnocbui

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1647344007721152512

What a shame.

Cigarette packets need yet another warning; about not smoking near concentrations of ammunition.

Polar101

Obviously if the 7:1 or 10:1 loss ratios were everywhere, Ukraine would be in Vladivostok by now and all Russian soldiers would be dead. Given that neither side is not really advancing, the losses must be more "even".

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120482908#Comment_120482908

Not a Hope,

I'm More Pro Ukrainian than any of the johnny come latelys in the last 12 months.

See I live in the real world, where Ukrainians are dieing along with Russians and definitely not at odds of 10-1 or 7-1 ,

If you apply the claimed on here 10-1 just in bakhmut the majority of Russian total loses happen In bakhmut in the last few months, which goes against everything we have seen .

Some one took an opinion given in the media and hold on it like a life jacket in a cold bath

charlie_says

Interview with British soldier in Ukraine

https://archive.is/xAvMU

Even that old contradiction in terms US military intelligence figures released through unofficial channels are only guesstimated.

Same as the tank kills, these figures are only verified. Even with today’s technology it’s going to be difficult to accurately assess actual casualties.

Also, it’s very annoying to see the regular few posters on here constantly defending previous utterances or their long held positions like most of us give a flying Fuk. It’s tiresome, totally irrelevant and no, your personally held opinion doesn’t add up to a hill of beans.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120482579#Comment_120482579

I have always been sceptical of the pledges of serious military equipment. It's easy to promise delivery a year down the line to gain brownie points at home and some crumbs in between when they know deep down what way this is likely to end up. Those pledges will never have to be seriously delivered on.

This conflict has been a foregone conclusion since the start. Yes the Ukrainians are fighting bravely, doing all they can and it's disgusting what is happening but we, in Europe, need to face the inevitable and think about our own security in the aftermath. Ukraine could just be the first victim of Russian expansionism.

A counter offensive is clearly a one shot deal. Ukraine's last chance. It has to work. Imagine the planning and knowing that's it if it fails basically. It just has to go right.

Widdensushi

So this 21 year old (and obviously thousands of others) had access to all this top secret material, any chance that some of the material was meant to fall into the wrong hands, something smells here, they can't be that lax.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483124#Comment_120483124

WRONG

Russia is a Pariah state for years to come. It gambled on a quick win and lost. It’s a laughing stock among dictator states, practically a vassal state for China. They are a future large North Korea. In fairness it was probably heading this way anyway. Communism failed, and they couldn’t convert to capitalism without their mafia taking control. They are probably doomed to serf status or emigrating. Putin has just supercharged this. Russia has already lost.

Ukraine don’t need NATO MBT’s, their Bradley’s will do just fine for the offensive. Yes, Russia has a shît ton of dumb munitions, but that won’t win them the war. I give you the US vs Vietnam as evidence of this.

”Ukraine’s last chance’ Your favourite phrase of late. This is simply propaganda, plain and simple.

You will be proved wrong, as exposed as the muppet you are.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/20/ukraine-russia-war-tanks-leopard-ifv-infantry-fighting-vehicle-bradley/

greenpilot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483222#Comment_120483222

Oh they can. Have you seen the calibre of some of the newest members of the US Armed forces? Men and women. You wouldn't trust them with a job in Centra, nevermind entrusting them with either sensitive information or a sensitive job.

There is a whole generation of young people entering the workforces and military positions around the world who do not understand cause and effect, respect to be rewarded for just taking part in something ( ie: showing up), have absolutely zero knowledge of the geography, politics nor history outside the US and are ultra-naive.

This guy is one of those...

weisses

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483001#Comment_120483001

And in the real world losses are 1-1 according to you ??

Mad reality ur living in then

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483253#Comment_120483253

Ukraine can commit roughly 160,000 max to a counter offensive of a 200,000 standing force and that's being depleted all the time. Believe me when I tell you it's not enough...this is over, Just a question of when. I would prefer, in order to save lives, Ukraine enter negotiations soon and give up the pretenses.

Let's see how the counter offensive goes, I really hope I eat my words and Ukraine is victorious. I don't think it can be.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483222#Comment_120483222

Over 1 million people in the US have top secret clearance. It doesn't mean they all have access to these particular documents but it gives an idea of the sheer number people who have to be given top secret clearance in order to keep things ticking over. The man who fixes the photocopier needs Top Secret clearance.

The reason more things are not leaked is because most people don't want to leak things - they're not ideologically inclined to do so or they don't fancy the consequences.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120482440#Comment_120482440

The Ukrainian losses given in the leaked US Intel are sourced from Ukraine itself.

There is also a footnote that says the reliability of Ukrainian numbers about their own dead + wounded is considered unreliable.

So hardly surprising that it aligns with previous propaganda numbers they put out about losses.

BoxcarWilliam99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120482974#Comment_120482974

"The Orcs altered many of the original documents in the leak, and likely fabricated ones that weren't leaked and inserted them in the overall information flow. It's the age old trick of inserting false information into a set of less important true information in the hope no one notices and accepts the false information as being true, by association"

You were pressed for any kind of evidence of this wild and peculiar claim you made. No evidence has been presented but you did edit the post. I see twitter videos been used 😆

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483273#Comment_120483273

I don’t believe you. I don’t believe you want Ukraine to win.

The population of Ukraine is 10s of millions. They are not afraid to utilise women. Spouting only 200k soldiers is patently obviously incorrect, and marks you as disingenuous.

Ukraine is fighting an existential battle.

It has the backing of the West.

It is up against a country with reluctant cannon fodder for troops. If Russia was as mighty as you hoped this war would have been over a year ago.

So spare us your Lord Haw Haw act. You will be defeated.

zv2

lol

https://twitter.com/MichaelMcKay87/status/1647531340521172999?s=20

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483386#Comment_120483386

Well, when this debacle is over, no doubt it will be fear of the consequences that will be the main deterrent.

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483092#Comment_120483092

"If Call of Duty brought out a war game based on this, no one would play it."

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483273#Comment_120483273

Ukraine has increased its armed forces massively since the war started. Some are NATO trained. They have suffered losses, people finish their tours etc, but they have a pool of at least 700,000 troops to call upon. Prigozhin estimates that the assault force alone is at least 200k, and they need hundreds of thousands of troops to hold the line, supply it, guard the borders etc. So your suggestion that most of their army will take part in the offensive is way off, to be honest.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483509#Comment_120483509

Unlikely. The consequences have always been there, there is no shortage of whistleblowers/leakers who have been given long sentences. Yet it still happens; albeit rarely.

A certain number of would-be whistleblowers (or boasting idiots as seems to be the case here) will not care about the consequences or they will be too stupid to fully measure them. So there will always be leakers. Every few years there will be another case. When you consider how many people could leak info versus how many people actually do, it's a pretty small problem.

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483222#Comment_120483222

I'm not sure I'd trust a 21 year old with the keys to open the office in the morning, nevermind classified documents that world security depends on. It's probably some test they use to separate the wheat from the weasels before deciding who might make a decent agent.

Padre_Pio

Disagree with the most optimistic of optimistic Ukrainian sources = pro orc shill putinbot.

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483273#Comment_120483273

Kermit, why would we ever believe anything you say? You're forever promising snow and we get sun. If anything, I'm reassured of Ukrainian success purely because you don't believe it'll happen.

Ukraine can commit significantly more numbers than at the start of the invasion since it has been training volunteer forces for over a year now. Do you really think if it comes to it that brave young men and women won't pick up the gun to defend themselves if it comes to it, just because they aren't labelled "professional soldier"?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483260#Comment_120483260

It's more likely 2-1

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483441#Comment_120483441

It's a thinly veiled "the EU is bad" rant but not based on any sort of reality. putin knows his plan is over it's just a matter of when and how the retreat occurs and what face-saving will occur with it. You'd expect this would deter users from making statements about russian victory, but not really, they have no issue being proven wrong on issue after issue and coming back with more in the hope of eventually being right (i.e. EU collapse).

RoyalCelt

I was thinking why China wouldn't just send Russia their latest weapons.

Strategically they're partner's right now but Russia need's china way more then china need's Russia. Who's to say in 20 year's after Putin's died Russia doesn't have a proper leader who's steering them towards Europe and co operation. Who's to say china and Russia get in a dispute over lands in the far East.

It's not in China's interest to bolster Russia. There's no doubt they're hope for a collapse of the federation because they'll be the biggest net beneficiaries.

Danzy

The going in Bakhmut is savage for both sides, especially for the Red Army because they are attacking a dug in force in a city.

There losses are immense but the losses for the Ukrainian forces are going to be very big as well.

Russia can't beat Ukraine, it may well take the Donbas, at a cost that may eventually collapse it in years to come.

Taking back the occupied land means that it will be Ukrainian forces being the ones attacking in urban areas.

It could very easily see the Ukrainian forces burn out doing so.

Additional factors upsetting clear cut wins or losses.

Ukraine has about 10mn refugees abroad, if they stay abroad Ukraine is finished as a country, if there is family reunification then it is even a quicker end.

Several million more are under occupation, another million may be in Russia, often involuntary in Communist gulags. Another 10mn internal displaced.

A Russian loss may be holding what they have and their army no longer capable of offensive operations but they could see a win in that as well. Territory held, Ukraine with 25% of its population forced out and mostly women and children at that. It's economy in tatters and a permanent low level hot line of contact ensuring Ukraine is always a State at war.

Winning and losing are not clear cut.

From the earliest days I've wanted mass military support for Ukraine and thought that in the event of grain blockades, chemical attacks etc that NATO should be involved in the fight, regardless of consequences.

This conflict will in all probability be going well into next year and further. Both sides might be husks after that.

The refusal of most of Europe to be on a war footing is truly baffling.

Germany has solved the dilemma of its Socialist party going against Russia by refusing to replace any ammunition sent to Ukraine, the best way to stop guns to Ukraine is to denude the wehrmacht of basic supplies. This is replicated to a lesser degree across Europe where as the reality calls for immediate escalation of defense spending and arming up, ramping up military production as an existential issue.

Nope, the opposite for Europe.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120482996#Comment_120482996

They aren't even. 1:5 or 6 would probably be the overall ratio.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammittal/2023/03/05/military-casualties-in-russia-ukraine-war-are-likely-less-than-commonly-stated/

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120483762#Comment_120483762

The same leaked intelligence reports which claim they foresee Ukraine making only limited gains in a counter-offensive would be the same report which says that Russia are not forecast to take much ground either. Although Russia holding more Ukrainian territory than February 2022 would be called a victory by some, it would not be a victory relative to their opening war aims. It certainly wouldn't be a victory in Putin's mind. If he regards Ukraine as historically Russia and Ukrainians as basically Russian, he'll want the whole thing. Maybe a rump containing Lviv and the Carpathians to be tossed to the West. Putin cannot sit down to negotiate the ceding of territory Russia currently occupy because he knows the redrawn Ukraine will be fast-tracked into NATO and he'll be unable to return for another go. NATO membership has to be the only way Ukraine would agree to a peace settlement at this point, as it's the only thing which would give Ukraine any considerable protection going forward.