Russia - threadbanned users in OP

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120714941#Comment_120714941

Just to add to this, Ukraine just have to fight Russia, but Russia needs to keep troops in reserve to prop up ailing CTSO members and other allies, quell domestic disquiet and also to be prepared for the all out war with NATO that seems to be always going on, at least in their heads. They also need to be able to offer to supply smaller nations with materiel in order to keep hold of the idea that they are a world leader. They cant allow China to suddenly become the no.2 defense contractor in the world.

So while Ukraine can and possibly will fight to the last bullet, Russia has to keep a lot in reserve. Its hard to see how they havent already passed this point, but for political (i.e. non military related) reasons cannot withdraw now.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715133#Comment_120715133

Part of the problem is that, the current war aside, it is not clear that massive amounts of unguided ammunition will be required for NATOs future needs. NATO relies on superior ISR, air power and precision strikes. The prevailing theory before this was is that massive amounts of cheap artillery shells just simply wouldnt be needed. Even now, it is not clear that, in a hypothetical conventional war between NATO and Russia that NATO would use artillery to the same extent Ukraine are.

So it makes no sense to ramp up production to several million rounds per year, at tremendous cost, when the requirement for same is not really needed.

Put another way, NATO has committed over $1 trillion to the F35 and the US spent $20 billion on the now cancelled Zumwalt destroyer programme.

At a cost of c. $500-$1,000 per dumb shell, if NATO really wanted them, they would have no problem making them. They just dont see the long term future in early cold war tech, is all.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715220#Comment_120715220

To keep this in context, these look like earthen dams on reservoirs used solely for irrigation water. The volume of water involved would be a fraction of the Nova Khakovka dam. Here is the embankment of one of the reservoirs

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.2738526,35.9408619,3a,75y,18.29h,78.84t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipM80GpxlBrTXopF8qBwnpkg3fXfj80wWh3_HY9H!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipM80GpxlBrTXopF8qBwnpkg3fXfj80wWh3_HY9H%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0-ya53.000004-ro-0-fo100!7i10240!8i5120?entry=ttu

This is the Tokmach river further downstream in Tokmak.

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.2505237,35.7247177,3a,75y,40h,100t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipOkQCL8JYuyhLtsBWxXEyNcZNtGN1C_B-aHDEfW!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOkQCL8JYuyhLtsBWxXEyNcZNtGN1C_B-aHDEfW%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-10-ya31.999996-ro-0-fo100!7i8192!8i4096?entry=ttu

The ESB have probably done more damage in the past releasing water on the Lee than blowing any of these dams will cause.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715463#Comment_120715463

One plan could be to push north of Bakhmut, where they are already winning and make haste to the Russian border. This would cut off the troops in the north, which they could savage. They could also surround Bakhmut and then push south. But this is only armchair stuff. I'm not a military person.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715618#Comment_120715618

You have a point but the need is now, done right there will be no need to worry about Russia for a generation or two.

The bigger Communist brother in China is the real threat this century.

For all we know supplying Mongolia with 40k shells a day might be the best thing in history come 2030.

One thing you can be certain of is that whatever the scenarios most of Europe will have only a paler imitation then of the depleted stocks and run down armies of today.

thereitisgone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715526#Comment_120715526

I understand why the Russians have put so much defense in the south

If the Ukrainians reach the Sea of Azoz then its game over for all Russian occupation south of Kherson

The supply chain is gone from the Donetsk side and the Ukrainians now have the ability to blow the Kerch bridge with storm shadow anytime they want

They will simply have to retreat to Crimea and hope the ferries can supply them from there for the defense of Crimea

Have the Russians put all there eggs in one basket down south and are they still moving troops down there from the north

Took them a lot of time to quieten that cross border thing up north so seems they didn't have much resources there

But again we are all guessing just like the Russians, time will tell

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715704#Comment_120715704

Going north puts you on the way to donesk which has been heavily mined and fortified over the last ten years, going to the border brings you closer to Russian artillery to,

Melitopol is the keystone to the whole landbridge and access to Crimea,you take melitopol you then split the landbridge allowing you to come down through Kherson securing the whole area including Zaporizhzhia, that leaves them free to move to berdyansk Russia losses the port and has to withdraw to Mariupol, that going to be a bloody battle that was one of the objectives putin wanted since 2014

WheelieKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715085#Comment_120715085

No, it's rubbish as far as i know. Do you watch it?

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715839#Comment_120715839

Certainly, splitting the land bridge could spell the end of the Russian invasion, but Ukraine would need to have enough in reserve to actually press home that advantage, and that would depend on what this particular offensive might cost them in terms of man power and equipment.

If the Ukrainians found a southern offensive a tough slog, getting through Crimea would presumably be that on steroids. Blowing up the Kerch bridge would obviously help cut off Crimea, but it could still be resupplied by sea albeit more slowly. You would think that Ukraine would need to control either the sky or the sea above or around Crimea in order to make a successful offensive in this area. Air power, especially, would be of huge value at any point, including the current operations Ukraine is conducting.

WheelieKing

Say what you want about Ukraine, but they are masters of getting good PR stories out. One of their drone pilots guided a Russian soldier to safety in Bakhmut after most of his unit had died and he wanted to surrender. Wall Street Journal talked to the people involved and put a video on YouTube explaining what happened. Caution: bodies of dead soldiers are shown in the video.

https://youtu.be/n2W8yRa9XuA

A very nice story under the circumstances and shows that even in war people can still stay human. Especially if you consider all the stories of Russian atrocities...

IdHidden

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1669053098180894724?s=20

If the journalists are allowed there, it's a fair bet that the front line is a long way in advance of that.

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715850#Comment_120715850

I’d be of the same mind. I would however like to see Donetsk liberated from Russian / DPR control. That city in particular appears to have been the epicenter of Moscow’s attempts to Russify the area, and having Ukraine take it back would be a massive blow to Russian morale.

But tacktically, Melitopol is the key to all this. Crimea is what Putin want’s and if he can’t rule Kyiv I guess he’ll take a re-enforced Crimea as a runner up prize. I’d bet you he doesn’t give a flying fig about the DPR or LPR. They were a means to an end, and he somehow had to give them up to reach his goals, he’d do it in a heartbeat.

IdHidden

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668959494779420675?s=20

Russian losing a lot of mobile artillery.

Overheal

I'd love to be at the pentagon watching these fights unfold at scale by satellite.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715913#Comment_120715913

Absolutely. The uprisings in the east were fomented by Russia as a means of taking the focus off of the annexation of Crimea. They were a means to an end. An open sore in Ukraine that Russia could keep poking. When this conflict started they showed their disdain for these regions by treating their menfolk far worse than actual Russians. They were press-ganged into the army almost immediately and then treated like dirt by regular Russian troops. They're given the worst of equipment and gear and when they're killed their families don't get any benefits.

The Russians don't even really believe their own decree that Donetsk and Luhansk are now officially part of their country - there are still border crossings and check-points between them and Russia! They're basically on a par with the people of South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria to Russia. Useful geopolitical pawns.

Brussels Sprout

Pretty good explainer of the dilemma facing Russia right now as they try and maintain their secondary reserve at the rear where they rush to plug any gaps that might be punched through the lines at the front.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtDGD-HOyKY&t=926s&ab_channel=WilliamSpaniel

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715913#Comment_120715913

Donesk and lughansk was just a toe in the door for putin,all around the two cities the majority of Russian equipment is based solely in population centers, artillery, intelligence, command and control bunkers are all in or beside apartment complexs and hospitals knowing that the Ukrainans wouldn't risk trying to take them out without causing large civilian casualties and turning more of the population against Kiev ,but then the locals know if they speak up they will be disappeared and thousands have already been disappeared over the last ten years in the region,they have fortified the area and set up massive mine fields so pretty much not to defend donesk and lughansk from agression but to slow any assault on either city ,go back to the 90s when ukraine gained independence Russian agents called a meeting to get support to break away from independent Ukraine,no more than 200 people from the region turned up and that was the end of that until Russians turned up in 2014 set up two break away republics the leaders of these new people's republic were all Russian Military and FSB agents not locals looking for some autonomy,

zv2

Russian truck filled with ammunition...well, you know how it goes...

https://twitter.com/Frostilicus_/status/1669081728093134848?s=20

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715618#Comment_120715618

After this war Russia might be reduced to a lesser threat, but the real threat to the "west" will be China. Artillery shells (in huge quantities) might not be needed against them in a possible future conflict, but who knows?

In any case, pretty much every European country is now realising downsizing their military power was a mistake, and there are huge reinforcement projects on going - just look at the number of tanks and self-propelled howitzers (K9 Thunder) Poland is buying. Finland is buying more K9's as well. That means artillery shells will be produced even if it's just to reinforce European armies' stocks. Everyone also found out stockpiles run out quickly, so it's likely they will make ammunition reserves larger.

That's just in addition to obvious changes in warfare, such as drones and the need to counter them.

It's just that European decision making is slow - since there's no "EU army" (and NATO isn't fighting in Ukraine as such), it seems to be very complicated to decide which countries should start producing shells, and any delays will directly affect the amount of aid Ukraine gets.

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715913#Comment_120715913

Yeah exactly, we can see how much Putin cares about the annexed territories - just look at Kherson which according to him is forever a part of Russia. So far they've lost the capital, and destroyed much of the oblast in a flood.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716251#Comment_120716251

Poland is playing there own particular game in all of this , massive modernisation across their whole military, hundreds of new tanks , artillery, HiMars, apache gunships,and now they announced today that they won't support the lastest candidate for the Next NATO Secretary general from Denmark instead they are demanding a secretary general be picked from one of the Baltic states instead, Poland See's it's self as the next big dog of Europe militarily and politically,

Interesting times ahead

IdHidden

Tell me without telling me "Russia has a man power problem"

https://twitter.com/DevanaUkraine/status/1669046699480735749?s=20

Dohnjoe

The only truth from Russia seems to come out of one man

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1669075226007617536

Say my name

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716335#Comment_120716335

Russians were saying Poland had eyes on Ukraine before this recent invasion. Whilst Russian propaganda will use every whisper going to justify their genocide. It doesn't mean the baltic states including Ukraine always had some understanding of each other.

Go back and look at news reports of Lithuanian and Latvian independence rallies and there's more than likely a Ukrainian flag to be seen in the crowds. Since independence from Russia they kind of all had some understanding they needed to stand by one another or else the dominoes would fall back to the old days.

I can see in the future an Eastern block of nations. Russia not included. As their own economic union. Perhaps their own joint one army too. Could be a real manufacturing hub too. I'd say the EU can sense this too so doing everything to court Ukraine favour for the EU over setting up of a breakaway Eastern half of Europe.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716335#Comment_120716335

It should be someone from those countries, some one with skin in the game.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120714922#Comment_120714922

OK. So explain again how all that money is being spent without any jobs getting money from it? You are trying to talk two sides here. Yes from a purely economic point of view the money could be better spent but you tried to brush off the point that the money will be going to jobs by saying it was all old equipment but now there is still money being spent.

Ammunition still has to be made by people and hotels putting up Ukrainians have to be staffed. The money is still going back into the local economy.

200mg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120713986#Comment_120713986

Do they really just make a one size fits all uniform. You see some bursting out of them or sleeves to short. His is over his hands. Looks swamped.

200mg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716384#Comment_120716384

Not a single one of them look like they would pass basic training in any EU/Western army.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716448#Comment_120716448

What utter nonsense. EU funds have transformed them. They won’t leave while they are benefitting on the gravy train. Germany biggest contributor, Poland was the biggest net recipient last year in the EU, they got 12.9B. Their government have been great on Ukraine but let’s not kid ourselves they’re awful. Them and Hungary are two peas in a pod, differing only on Russia. Cracking down on press freedom, judges etc. Declaring gay free zones in Poland which is just bizarre. Ironically copying a lot of stuff from Putin’s playbook.

Only recently they adopted a law that would ban anyone who they deem as having ties with Russia from running for office for 10 years, EU and USA criticised this because with their track record of cracking down on freedom it was seen as an affront to bar Donald Tusk the ex EU president from running in the polish elections.

EU to fund up to 85% of estimated 7B cost for the largest infrastructure project in the Baltic region for a hundred years is. The 870 km Rail Baltica project will connect the capitals of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia with Warsaw and the rest of Europe, allowing trains from the continent to run uninterrupted. While the Baltics used to be connected by European rail standards of 1435 mm gauge, since its Soviet occupation, the region’s rail system adopted the Russian gauge which is 1524 mm. I bet they just can’t wait to leave the EU lol. Utterly ridiculous.

And the EU scared of Ukraine starting a breakaway eastern block? Are you telling me Estonia, Latvia, Lithuanian and Poland the 4 net recipients of eu money are going to able to facilitate the rebuilding of Ukraine? On what planet would Ukraine take this route over the EU funding plus a massive free trade block of countries. Mental

pcardin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120715439#Comment_120715439

so bots and orc supporters are nowadays called 'cooler heads'? Thanks for an update!