Russia - threadbanned users in OP

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718659#Comment_120718659

It reveals nothing - "they're hardly going to state the real reasons in a press conference". So there you go.

Just that you viewed the press conference through the prism of an already held opinion.

You were unable to support your claims with direct reference to the press conference. Which proves my point. I didn't dodge your question, I was sticking to the main point.

And besides, if they were about to give some new weapons -> they'd hardly give any hints of that in a press conference. Catch 22.

As for your question, you have expressed a wish to Russia to be 'destroyed' and rebuilt like Japan and Germany after WWII. Your posts seem to ignore the geopolitical reality that Russia is nuclear and WMD armed and if it thinks it is danger of suffering a 'killer blow' from Ukraine or NATO may resort to their use.

On top of that, I can imagine a whole host of reasons why certain weapons are held back -> fears of advanced systems falling into Russian hands, shortage of equipment, need to keep reserve for other threats, complexity of training, logistics, supply.

I don't think it reflects some conspiracy / agenda to deliberately draw out the war. If I'm to be convinced of that, need a lot more.

So I will take the comments at face value.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718760#Comment_120718760

I think there are two possibilities why they hold back certain weapons: first, out of fear of provoking a nuclear state (which you acknowledge), and second because Russia bogged down in a long war may be better than Russia swiftly defeated and regrouping for the next attack.

I suspect both factors play their role.

You disagree on the second point - fine. History may one day clear up the debate. For now we know only that the US could offer much more military help than it chooses to.

mike_cork

https://twitter.com/Ayei_Eloheichem/status/1669358003781500930?t=e4B9U0t_u6C4ORxbXqadMg&s=19

Merkava tanks maybe on the way (or used as backfill to allow other tanks to be sent to Ukraine)

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120716251#Comment_120716251

Poland is spending far more on advanced and proven precision systems like F35, Himars than on artillery systems, and its unclear what ammunition is going to be purchased for the K9s, most probably guided and/or extended range shells.

The point being that NATO does not share the same philosophy that Russia, and to a lesser extent Ukraine, do, which is that you get massive amounts of shells and you destroy vast areas in the hopes of hitting something of military value. GMLRS rockets, together with superior ISR, has been able to seriously hamper Russian logistics, and if Ukraine had a NATO airforce their logistics would be completely destroyed.

In a hypothetical war between Russia and Poland, Poland would not make and fire 50,000 shells or whatever it is the Russians do, because they wouldnt need to.

So I disagree that the failure to produce enough shells is due to slow European decision making. Its because European armies simply dont expect to expend such vast amounts of unguided shells in future conflicts. Maybe they should, and thats a separate argument in a way, certainly they have relied on US stockpiles a bit too much, but they just dont want or need vast amounts of unguided shells, any more than they dont want or need millions of bayonettes!

A good analogy would be if Australia made a promise to provide winter gear to Ukraine. They would struggle to fulfill any pledges because they just dont need winter gear themselves, and when the wars over its not simply a case of pressing a button to stop the production line.

If you still dont believe me, think about this - if you were Mateusz Morawiecki would you rather use those billions of Zloti to set up a huge factory in Poland to make dumb munitions, employing thousands of Polish people and giving you defense autonomy, or would you rather give it to US, Korean and German manufacturers?

Field east

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718970#Comment_120718970

Hard to believe that Uke has ,to some extent , the same strategy/philosophy re conducting a war/battle. I thought that Uke with much, much, much less soldiers and equipment were able to shu The Russians out of Kiev and work them ALLthe way back to the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. And Uke is , IMO, deeply aware that it must use what it has very sparingly and economically .

I wonder what would the Americans do DIFFERENTLY if it was in Ukrain’s shoes with the same manpower and equipment or for that matter France, Germany Spain, etc.?

WheelieKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718215#Comment_120718215

Of course it's capable of change. Russia is blessed with a massive wealth of resources that should make it one of the wealthiest nations on earth, instead power and wealth is hoarded by a selfish few. They just need leadership no different than any other nation on earth. Russians seem to be painted by some on here as a type of monster, ive seen the word orc used to describe them for instance but this is pure hogwash and nonsensical.

thereitisgone

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1669213383113973760?s=20

Really interesting if true

zv2

@odyssey06 Russia is nuclear and WMD armed and if it thinks it is danger of suffering a 'killer blow' from Ukraine or NATO may resort to their use.

The west has had high level meetings with the Russians and they warned them that if they use certain weapons they will be severely punished. What those punishments are we don't know but Russia will lose the war for sure if they use those weapons.

thereitisgone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719162#Comment_120719162

sorry link doesn't appear for some reason

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719174#Comment_120719174

Russia may also have advised on their red lines too ... and if they think the 'severe punishment' is on a par with the 'killer blow' some people wish Ukraine to deliver. Well, why wait?

Field east

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719026#Comment_120719026

There is leadership but if it/they are lucky they are in jail otherwise they are 6 feet down. Anyone who is even THINKING of putting their heads above the proverbial parapet it will be immediately ‘ chopped off’. You need only look at the lady who held up a blank piece of paper on a stick in Moscow a few months ago was ‘ arrested.. IMO , the barriers towards change are insurmountable because at least FIVE sides must agree on a basic strategy towards a democracy / a more equal society / or whatever , Namely :- Putins/ his replacement inner circle, the olegarcs, the security /secret service, the army and Wagner and similar groups. They all have a certain amount of sway/power and can probably thwart any move to change because of loss of wealth, power, tradition

r groups

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719174#Comment_120719174

You think the Russians haven't issued warnings too? There's mutual deterrence here as always

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718612#Comment_120718612

I think this is it Netherlands to supply 200 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine (aa.com.tr)

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719185#Comment_120719185

So Russia has a choice - destruction or hang on and see how it goes.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120718174#Comment_120718174

Have you tried nexium for the gut 😄

It would make zero sense that Nato would start some secret training program for Ukrainian pilots when we are still in the position of nobody has currently offered any of their F16s to go to ukraine,we had this previously with the secret A10 warthog training program in las Vegas which turned out to be some lad with ties to Ukraine flying a few Ukrainians over to fly A10 warthog games on PCs before been sent home,then it was F18s didn't happen,and back to f16s, one thing for sure is there won't be any Ukrainian F16s flying in October

greenpilot

Are American boots on the ground in Ukraine?

The American's would say no.

At 23.20 onwards in this footage ( read the English subtitles), I would say, probably....

Extraordinary stuff. Bit of a blooper.

https://youtu.be/uSqHkKvD-rs

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719192#Comment_120719192

Well, the ball is in Russia's court. Let's see what they do.

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719419#Comment_120719419

I seen reference to the "Americans", but I didn't want to watch it all TBH. Could you give a brief rundown?

Always assumed there were Americans there but off the books so to say, is this video showing proof of troops there outside Ukraine's international legion?

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719419#Comment_120719419

Plenty of Americans fighting with Ukraine. Plenty of all sorts of nationalities. Anybody with military experience is welcome to go and volunteer to fight for Ukraine.

greenpilot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719475#Comment_120719475

Oh yes, I know of course. But in the context of the dialogue, it seemed like they were referring to US troops, purely in the context of the conversation.

Maybe not, but intriguing nonetheless as, you can bet on it, the Russians could size upon it as "proof" that they are indeed fighting NATO troops. It would be interesting if they do....

greenpilot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719462#Comment_120719462

While in a firefight, around 23.30 mark, there is a reference over the radio between Ukranian troops, to send a unit to " help the Americans evacuate ", and there is a back and forth regarding this on the walkies.

RoyalCelt

I feel like this battle in the south is going to be the decisive make or break battle this summer possibly for both sides. It feels like the first time both sides are going at it fully head on.

At the start of the war Ukraine was retreating before Ukraine caught them off guard in kharkiv and had a major advantage in Kherson.

Then you had the winter and Russia all out attack in the East with Ukraine in defence.

But now Ukraine are attacking in the south and it feels like Russia are not just in defence here but meeting them head on.

If Russia can hold out it will give them confidence but if Ukraine make the breakthrough the Russian morale will be deflated after trying everything and still failing.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719419#Comment_120719419

Probably a group of foreign volunteers (volunteers from particular nations often group together). From the leaks it appears there are some US/UK special forces and experts on the ground in Ukraine but likely they are there in advisory function, I'd doubt they are on the front line in the trenches.

As for the video, equally exhausting and terrifying front-line work, thank god for drones and good comms.

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719502#Comment_120719502

Probably there within the international legion but I always assumed some of the Americans fighting there did so in an unofficial official capacity. Seems like a no-brainer to plant a solid source of info on the ground but i'm sure they would be on their own if things got heavy.

Gatling

Israel to sell 200 merkva tanks to two unnamed European countries pending US permission,the latest rumors is these tanks could well be delivered to ukraine,

Currently only a rumour but this is social media after all ,

https://twitter.com/vorobyov/status/1669374510020034562?s=20

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1669386285775986688?s=20

Gregor Samsa

Interesting that neutral Israel could sell weapons to Europe that would then be passed on to Ukraine, but Switzerland will not.

https://www.rferl.org/amp/swiss-parliament-blocks-arms-exports-ukraine/32440097.html

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719645#Comment_120719645

Israel aren't neutral but a lot of there equipment has a lot of American tech involved, they have programs to modernise the Soviet era Hind gunships and tanks

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719645#Comment_120719645

Totally different politics. The majority of the world hate's Israel's guts (TBF, largely for the actions reflected by the IDF and that whole can of worms), whereas Switzerland is where everyone comes to launder their vast horde of wealth they extracted from the economies of other countries. Switzerland has very different calculus for what it does.

IdHidden

He will definitely fall out of a window.

https://twitter.com/k_alsharki/status/1669396720826843170?s=46&t=164doiZBMwnNrFfsvLsvPA

Overheal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120719798#Comment_120719798

He's a hoot.