Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Mech1

It's time for all of Europe including ourselves to up productivity of everything that Ukraine needs and what we need ourselves.

The whole defensive situation has been ground down since the fall of the wall in Germany.

Everyone seems to have taken the eye off the ball since.

Virgil°

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120966762#Comment_120966762

I think people underestimate just how much can change and how quickly. At the beginning nobody thought Ukraine would hold for more than a few weeks. Then they did. Everyone thought the Russian Navy was dominant in the black sea then the Moskova was sunk. Now the whole Black Sea fleet is cowering from speedboats jerry rigged with explosives. Last year we'd never have thought that the Russians would be wholesale routed from Kharkiv and booted out of Northern Kherson, then they were. Not to mention the Kersch bridge, which I've no doubt will be turned into and underwater scuba diving attraction eventually. Russia are complaining near daily that the sanctions both aren't working and need to be removed. The ruble is absolutely falling apart. How loyal will a hungry dog remain?

It was only a month or so ago we were on the cusp of a full blown mutiny come civil war. Now we're looking at a really tough slog. The Ukrainians haven't been given enough by the west to Ride of the Valkyrie their way to the coast. And undoubtedly they're losing lots of equipment and soldiers in this offensive. But if there's one thing that Russia have proven is just how brittle they are, something that the Ukrainians are not. These things tend to happen slowly and then all at once.

The offensive isn't over yet. It hopefully has months more before the ground becomes too difficult and the GLSDB and Abrams haven't shown up yet.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967082#Comment_120967082

Any example of that (from today)?

I don't think it is that the "West" (which is the US in recent discussions on thread, let us stop using euphamism) "has failed to deliver" (e.g. by not giving promised weapons etc.)

Just some people (incl. non expert me watching the news) would think more should/could have been done and a few more risks taken, and Ukraine would be in a better position if that had happened.

------------

My own 2p or 2c is that I think we were at limit of what the Biden admin. really wants to do & to risk as regards helping Ukraine (they may yet step up and do more to help Ukraine "counter" Russia if they think it becomes needed e.g. Russian military is making progress again, or Ukraine is weakening. I think US/NATO has been pretty reactive with aid most of the time...Russia changes strategy, they counter it).

There is just not as much at stake for the Americans in the outcome of this war as there is for Europeans. Speculating here but they might rate the risk of either a Russian collapse or Putin/Russia cracking under the pressure and doing something stupid + (even more) insane higher.

The war dragging on for a few years will not harm/affect the US too much, provided Ukraine doesn't collapse/lose (I will stress, I don't think any US cynicism is involved here though). However it's a disaster for Ukraine and terrible for Europe. The US definitely don't want Ukraine to "lose", but if it happened, the US and its alliances will be damaged and weakened, and the US humbled, but it is a catastrophe for us here IMO (a wound for "them"...vs perhaps having a leg blown off for "us").

Also majority (quite narrow I think going on polls?) of the "right" side of the US political divide is unconvinced of merits of assistance for Ukraine, and parts of it are pro-Russia and pro-Putin. That probably has to colour Biden's thinking heading into election, given easy and lazy attacks they can make on him ("wasting the taxpayers money on Ukraine", "concentrating on far away wars among foreigners, instead of the US homeland") to inflame US isolationism.

Unfortunately for us in Europe the reality is we (and Ukraine) are dependent on them. The (now flaky, very very divided and distracted...) US is in charge here and it decides the strategy to follow + the USA is the one with the fully stocked gun/ammo cabinet on hand on hand to actually help Ukraine [to win] now, rather than (perhaps) a few years hence.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967385#Comment_120967385

Biden is talking about a serious escalation in shell production. I wish Turkey would go all in.

SortingYouOut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967428#Comment_120967428

Any example of that (from today)?

I do

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-12541713?postid=6277734#liveblog-body

An expert has said he is "tired" of hearing opinions on why Ukraine's counteroffensive is going slowly.

"Bottom line, the West didn't deliver what they promised and more importantly didn't deliver even a fraction of what is needed in Ukraine," said John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute.

No other military has had to breach "such extensive mined defensive lines" since the Second World War, he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967464#Comment_120967464

That’s just depressing.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967460#Comment_120967460

We are not far off of 2 years of war there.

Still talking about is not much good though.

Russia will take that as an encouraging sign, talk and only talk of normal production levels, not serious effort. March 22 should have been the cut off date for the talk and decision making.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120966911#Comment_120966911

That may be what you think, but its not true. Not in my personal experience anyway.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967390#Comment_120967390

Getting a bit browned off with the pernicious tarring of 'the left' in this thread, to be honest. I think that universal healthcare, fair wages, social security, workers rights, human rights, animal rights etc are good things and ideals to strive towards if not already implemented. Also think that climate change is certainly not some big hoax and that immigration is a net positive. By most metrics, I skew 'left'. However, I also think that Putin is a craven monster and that Russia needs putting back in its box post haste. Probably a bit more depth and geopolitical/economic complexity to Brazil's attitude regarding Russia than lefty likey Ruskie. BRICS, for example, has been a thing well before Russia (officially) invaded Ukraine. Shock horror - all these countries have been mighty slow to condemn Russia's conduct.

Fair enough you get the people over here who are so far left that the horseshow theory comes very much into play, but that should be recognised as far left, i.e. contrarians who have to be on the bleeding edge of every hot take going. Back toward the centre there's a bit more nuance and reason going on. Most ordinary people on either side of the political spectrum in the West can agree that Russia are in the wrong, to put it comically mildly.

mike_cork

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1690113110126776320

........

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967464#Comment_120967464

They talked a good game though, that must have had a serious impact though.

Putin is going to look at America, regardless of who is President Congress will have a majority of both sides keeping aid incoming but the focus will move to the election and Ukraine will drop away from the news cycle.

Most of Europe seem to think it is all happening in some shi7 hole in Africa and not on the Eastern fringe of the continent, and involving a man who Views himself as in an existential struggle against Europe and the West.

He has f all to worry about from most of Europe

technocrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967704#Comment_120967704

Then why no anti Putin/war protests by Russian expats in Berlin, Amsterdam or London.

Yet we see same Russians flying Z flags and moaning about Ukrainian refugees.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967729#Comment_120967729

The thing is though, if people lose interest in news stories about Ukraine, but are happy for their governments to continue to sanction Russia and send aid to Ukraine, isnt that the worst outcome for Putin?

Western aid continues unabated. Meanwhile, Russian propaganda has less of an impact because people dont want to hear it either way!

This tends to suggest that Western support for Ukraine can continue for the medium term at least, and possibly indefinitely. That isnt good news for Putin at all

selectamatic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967405#Comment_120967405

Will ya stop.

Ukraine faltering to the point Russia get a "win" and then roll on to face the west is a ship that sailed about 4 days after the 24/02/22.

AerLingus747

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967405#Comment_120967405

The western front probably has the biggest placement of active forces since WW2. NATO aren't going to leave themselves short.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967763#Comment_120967763

From Feb 22-Mar 22 2022, 15000 protesting Russians were arrested in Moscow. And since then, there has been silent protests in Russian cities, where under the pretext of honoring the war dead by laying flowers at monuments, but they are in reality drawing attention to the war. While abroad, where Russians have settled, Georgia, Lithuania, Berlin, Barcelona, Paris, London, Serbia. have all held protests. Just because you do not hear to much about them now, does not mean that they are not going on. First point ( I've mentioned it before, anyway) Ethnic Russians are far from popular in the Republics. I learned this the hard way in my early days in Russia, when in my innocence, I inadvertedly called a colleague "Russian". I never made that mistake again. I was told in no uncertain terms, not to ever, ever call him a Russian again. 2nd point, Ethnic Russians are even less popular now in the Republics due to Putin definitely biased mobilization plans. So, while Putin has his supporters, there's many who do not agree with or support him, and I know quite a few of them ( I know quite a few of his dedicated followers too) But for sure, its not all cut and dried black and white, all Russians support Putin. They don't.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967032#Comment_120967032

So based on 1 team of Ukrainian soliders who only have 3 drones and raided a Russian trench and found 26 boxes of chinese drones (didn't China recently ban all drone exports?)

I'd love to know what happened to the Russian soliders.... and were the boxes empty?

I'm extremely curious what anti artillery equipment Germany has promised that hasn't arrived yet, he only mentions 'stuff like this'.... like what?

dennis72

Judging by the movement on battlefield the Russian unannounced suppliers seem to be more reliable than the west who is losing this important strategic battle their are only so many Ukrainian fighters eventually they will cave

The west has not woken up when Ukraine and Belarus are gone they will be the next we il nuke you cannon fodder to be thrown at lets denazify Poland

10 year war ahead

A no fly zone and a NATO black sea protection fleet Russian stopped surveillance US drone taken out should have being a wake up call

Russians know article 5 is a joke they have tested it many more times than we know

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967998#Comment_120967998

Yes that is human nature. Whoever holds the power decides the narrative. At the risk of going off Topic, but to bring it back to the Irish context, it’s similar to how the power of the Irish Catholic Church collapsed in Ireland. Pre 1992/93 the church were still a very powerful force in this country and the general reverence and deference of the 60s/70’s/80’s was still very much in place. It was a feature of many of our childhoods. But look at how quickly that all collapsed in the space of a few short years months even. Suddenly many latent anti church voices appeared in the media who were pretty much silent a few short months before. It wasn’t a gradual process over years. It happened over a space of months around the horrific Brendan smith case and cascaded from there. That’s the way powerful organisations fall asunder. Once some event precipitates a change all those silent voices suddenly feel safe to make their presence known and step out of the shadows. That’s the way it will be with Putins Russia as well it’s just a case of what event or occurrence will precipitate the collapse. But latent / hidden anti Putinism is massive in Russia no doubt and will make its presence known when circumstances allow.

AerLingus747

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120968139#Comment_120968139

They're doing what Russia always do, and leave a level of ambiguity and plausible deniability...

There's no going back from a full article 5 trigger, to do so with the incidents we've had so far, would be reckless in mine (and a lot of others) opinions. Article 4 triggering has been the appropriate response so far.

If article 5 was thought to be such a joke, the Suwałki Gap would have been attacked last year.

Contrary to the above though, I do think the west can do a lot more, but the entanglement with NATO and the article 5 argument, has actually paralised things a bit. I feel if the likes of Poland or others weren't in NATO, with the threat of article 5 hanging over if attacked, they would have been a bit more all in.... but then you would have had far different tactics from the Russians also with regards to them.

rogber

Very interesting piece on the drone strikes in Moscow and the effect (or lack of it) on the Russian civilian population:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/12/kyivs-drone-strikes-on-moscow-mean-kremlins-war-cant-be-ignored-by-russians

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967715#Comment_120967715

Although the recent slide is attracting attention, it's interesting to look at the longer term trend.

The massive spike at the start of 2022 very visibly indicates the start of the war. After that we see a period of where the ruble traded in a range lower than the long term historical average. Presumably it was being artificially propped up by the Russian Central bank. Since December, it doesn't look like it's been able to continue supporting it.

Assuming that the ruble value is being determined mainly by free market forces now, it would seem that the economists have a bleak view of Russia's economic future. Many military analysts don't seem to have such a bleak view of the Russian Army's prospects. But I would have thought that the two were interlinked. Without a viable economic future, in the medium to long term the armed forces are going to suffer substantially.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967320#Comment_120967320

Brazil needs a kick up the arse big time

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120967715#Comment_120967715

Just before anybody says they don't deal with Dollar anymore which they actually do. The Ruble has dropped a lot over 12 months Vs other currencies too. I check China, India, Britain and eur all major drops. This makes importing more expensive for Russia and ultimately it means they'll burn through their reserves faster and when they do it will be more costly to borrow money.

Russia really shielded themselves from this war and 18 months in they're still going but give it another year, if the currency keeps dropping they'll not have a good financial outlook.

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120968139#Comment_120968139

What delusional world are you living in? The movements on the battlefield since putin initiated a more widespread invasion of Ukraine last year has been for putin's forces to be pushed back from much of the territory they have tried to occupy.

How do you suggest they now have the force to go on to take on Poland when they have not even been able to maintain the portion of Ukraine that they tried to occupy initially?

I don't think Ukraine will allow putin's forces to occupy part of their country for ten years and any action putin takes against NATO member states will see an even more rapid elimintion of the threat his terrorist state poses to the rest of the world.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120968154#Comment_120968154

I agree with you re the Catholic Church, but where it differs from Russia, is that for Putin and Co, their lives depend on strangling dissent at birth, or even before. Had Putin been the head of the Catholic Church, it would still be alive and well and as powerful as ever. And as we have seen, and continue to see Putin is prepared to kill as many as it takes to preserve his own miserable life.

Dohnjoe

Leadership

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1689974876713447425

Akabusi

The Kerch bridge may have been hit again, telegram accounts reporting it.

IdHidden

Good point made by the journalist Christo Grozev, the lead Russia investigator at Bellingcat. The Russians want to kill him and he has been forced to move countries to stay safe.

”the far right and the far left, which seem to have a near-identical scepticism about the west’s support for Ukraine.

“The Kremlin discovered a long time ago they could exploit this ‘horseshoe coalition’ [where the extremes meet] by obfuscating the fact that Moscow has a far-right government and there is zero socialism in Russia,” Grozev says. “Socialists around the world seem to be oblivious to that. So they are available for free. We only need to bribe the far right in the west because the left is free. They are still our useful idiots.”

RoyalCelt

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1690307788700848128?t=JwdQpUrbv5_W1qIUJe-UUQ&s=19

The question is it a smoke screen drill. Or smoke screen activated after a successful hit. The black smoke would suggest so. I seen another imagine where there was more black smoke near the bridge but not on it. Maybe an air defence unit or a boat was targeted also.