Russia - threadbanned users in OP

RedXIV

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994091#Comment_120994091

Honestly, stalemate doesn't suit Putin. The economic ravages of the war on Russia are compounding. The stories of mobilised beginning to return to Russia (and causing chaos as they do), will increase as whomever survive start to return. They need to be replaced and it's not as if we're seeing volunteers lining the streets. Winter MAY be a geographical advantage to defenders rather than attackers in Ukraine, but that's very different to the battle Putin and Russia are facing, in which time will be working actively against them.

The recently announced 12.5% interest rate from the Russian central bank is fairly brutal on a country that can barely feed itself outside its major cities. And there are no signs of day to day life for those in Russia to improve.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120993238#Comment_120993238

I'd reckon that Kerch Bridge is living on borrowed time. What's likely saving it at the moment are the dire threats & retaliation the Russian administration rush out any time it has been damaged to date. Russia however went ahead and blew the Kakhovka Dam and is constantly reckless around the Zaporizhia nuclear plant. Ukraine will sooner or later be able to target it. Even if the west limits the range or defines use of supplies, they can/ will develop their own. I'm no expert on air defence systems, can you defend an 18 kilometre narrow bridge?

TedBundysDriver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120993960#Comment_120993960

I haven't bothered following the daily in's and out's of the war but the reason i ask the question is because the analyst on sky sounded pretty much as saying the window was closing rapidly for success and i remember a few months back hearing a lot of experts saying this offensive was Ukraine's last chance to regain what's rightfully theirs.

You are right though, there where many very naive predictions and a lot of bravado that was never realistic.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120993875#Comment_120993875

It is hard to determine if it is a failure or success unless you know what the Russian strength is. There is a lot of uncertainty about what they have. But they are losing battles so they can't have a huge amount left.

victor8600

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994233#Comment_120994233

Yes, the bridge can be defended from rocket attacks with a combination of air defence systems. Which needs to be taken off the front lines, so Ukraine wins in any case if it continues sending cheap drones and rockets towards the bridge. But the bridge was damaged twice already, and not by rockets -- once by a truck bomb, and another time by drone boats. Next time it could be mined by Ukrainian sappers brought by a submarine.

Virgil°

There was a Washington post article released either today or yesterday where US Intelligence officials are saying its unlikely that this Ukraine counter offensive will achieve the gold medal of piercing all the way to Melitopol. Just to get ahead of the misery merchants on the thread.

And while I'd actually agree that it seems unlikely that Ukraine will reach the sea of Azov by this time 8 weeks there really isn't anything new in the article that isn't widely known for months now.

• Ukraine not using NATO tactics but opting for small scale and attrition rather than driving all their units in a columns and taking huge losses
• Russian minefields and defenses more formidable than originally thought
• Ukr not having air superiority
• Counter offensive being a tough slog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994091#Comment_120994091

The hope is there'll be a breakthrough somewhere by October but it's looking increasingly unlikely.

By what metric are you basing this on? Ukraine are on the offensive and currently(going by Oryx) destroying Russian armor and equipment at a rate 3x to what they're losing. That's absolutely miraculous considering the defenders advantage. And an absolute disaster for Russia. Russian artillery and counter battery is being absolutely genocided daily.Russia even fired one of their most respected generals for saying as much. They fully lost 2 of their most effective anti armor helis yesterday alone. And continue to lose 1 a week.

The Ukr forces that have crossed the Dnipro continue to creep forwards towards the only good main supply line in the south by Oleshky. And Russia seem unable to dislodge them. Almost certainly because they simply don't have the reserves to do it. Another potentially catastrophic sign for Russia. And now as of a couple of days ago Ukraine has put their 82nd brigade into the mix. So we'll see soon enough why they've chosen to do this.

All that implies that a breakthrough is much MORE likely now than it was 2 months ago. Unless the mud season starts tomorrow. They may not make massive gains in this counter offensive noone here knows. But I just can't agree that the signs are terrible as of today.

Virgil°

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994335#Comment_120994335

Depends on what analyst you're listening to. If it's Michael Clarke then he's been reasonably good so far. Although nobody has a crystal ball and its not clear but to a handful of people what's actually happening on the ground as a whole.

If its Sean Bell then good luck. The guy is as much a military analyst as I am. A through and through idiot who has been calling for Ukraine to sue for peace since the start of the war. Even as Russia was flattening Severodonetsk. If Ukr had taken his advice they wouldn't have reclaimed Kherson nor Kharkiv.

zv2

Port on fire in Mordor

https://twitter.com/Maks49810504/status/1692457158007259165?s=20

Retr0gamer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994642#Comment_120994642

If you think lefties support a totalitarian right wing country like Russia then you've been drinking the far right coolaid my friend.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994409#Comment_120994409

This is a good point. I remember hearing on an economist podcast an excellent remark that dictatorships often look very secure until about 5 minutes before they collapse. The stalemate situation could be similar. Or it might go on and on. Who knows...

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994091#Comment_120994091

Expectations by who? I don't recall anyone from Ukraine laying out their expectations. Things haven't gone gung-ho and that's a disappointment to the war fan boys out there who then throw their soothers at the laptop when there isn't carnage and Russians dying/fleeing while the Ukrainians dance at the crossroads in celebration. Who set the time limit on these expectations? Did someone say if ye lads aren't in some village with X thousand dead Russians then go home and the war is over? No they didn't.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994691#Comment_120994691

They do. For example, Clare Daly and Mick Wallace have consistently voted against Europe in favour of Putin's Russia.

The recent term Campist encapsulates their thinking:

"A leftist who supports any country/organization simply for being opposed to the United States or the West, including authoritarian governments who would otherwise not follow leftist beliefs."

They are typically smart enough to make a vapid condemnation of Putin, but typically it's just window dressing before making statements that are directly in line with Putin's. The "Putin is bad but" trope.

Retr0gamer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994718#Comment_120994718

I'd put them in a wheelie bin marked 'clowns'. I wouldn't even call them leftists. Most people on the left have compassion for the common man.

Anyway:

https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1692159899747139808?t=NDH5SzyDv1WiY5Z4lg9P6A&s=19

This could well be Ukraine moving laterally along the Russian defensive line as consolidating this line for defense for themselves. I just hope they keep pushing. If they can do the same at the tokmak like then Russia has basically lost the entire south.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994691#Comment_120994691

I wish you were right, but looking at the local far-left crowd, or the likes of the Linkspartei back in Germany, they are fully onboard with the Kremlin line. Anything that goes against the "evil" United States and NATO must be supported.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994691#Comment_120994691

There's a cohort of Left Wing people who, in a ideological desperation to pin the blame on The West/NATO/The USA, will jump through hoops to at best, Both Sides the war & at worst, openly support Russia's right to invade or will argue away Ukrainian autonomy like it's nothing. From the likes of Jeremy Corbyn to Brazil's Lula to Sabine Higgins, nominally sober and left-leaning figures have simply ignored the concept of Russia as either autocratic - or Empire Building, such is the myopia for all things "west".

Dohnjoe

The balls on whoever did this

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1692479921161904288

Gregor Samsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994781#Comment_120994781

You’re engaging in the “no true Scotsman” fallacy. Daly and Wallace are, by any reasonable definition, on the (far) left of Irish politics.

I will note that “being soft” on Russia is not a prerequisite for being on the left. Brendan Ogle is a contrary example to be commended: https://www.newstalk.com/news/war-on-ukraine-the-left-is-being-too-soft-on-putin-brendan-ogle-1388301

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994830#Comment_120994830

I would question how Noted Businessman Mick Wallace could be considered "far left" though, purely from an economic perspective, for someone to be quite ... enthusiastic in the pursuit of private capital wealth.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994642#Comment_120994642

Did you see the footage from the Bray chap called Finn last night on RTE? In one of the sectors he was in, he noted that the Ukrainians were just collecting their own casualties and filmed Russian bodies rotting away on the roadsides. I'm sure they'll be tidied up in time but not a priority when their f***er friends are still trying to wipe you out. Better things to be doing.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994857#Comment_120994857

Badly failed businessman you mean surely?

astrofool

Any Ukrainian gains will have been a success (and we're already past that criteria), russia aren't advancing, their economy is collapsed and they're now having to defend Moscow from daily attacks.

From Ukraine's perspective, it won't be over until they have their territory back, however long that takes.

From "the west's" perspective, now that all bridges with russia have been burned, by russia, while russians were standing on them, continued support of Ukraine is still the cheapest ever dismantling of a superpower. The weapons to Ukraine will continue to flow, once F-16 are added, then there will be clamouring for F-18 maybe F-35 (I doubt the latter, but I doubted we'd see Abrams as well).

It also acts as a cautionary tale for others thinking to do the same (China with Taiwan), doubly so by NATO and allies all turning the weapons production back to full, so there will be far more exercises carried out and equipment available if and when needed (my own opinion is that China will just wait it out and both countries will meet in the middle at some point far in the future).

As others have said, artillery superiority on the Ukraine side makes it a long winter for russian troops, but I do expect them to lash out at civilians.

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994796#Comment_120994796

It's funny how a policy of "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" was criticised when the US indulged in it e.g. with the Taliban, but is now a perfectly sensible policy when the anti-America/NATO types do it.

Gregor Samsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994857#Comment_120994857

That’s where the fallacy part of the “no true Scotsman” fallacy lives. Concentrating on one particular aspect in isolation, demanding purity, and dismissing the overwhelming evidence as a whole. There’s nothing that says the far left can’t be susceptible to hypocrisy.

ColemanY2K

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994781#Comment_120994781

100%... taking tokmak would open up a potential dash to the coast but the town is 25km or so from the frontline with enormous russian defensive positions in-between. the russians will throw absolutely everything at the ukrainians to stop them getting to tokmak in order to prevent a potentially war ending scenario from occurring.

map below courtesy of ISW which illustrate the dense russian defenses.

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995082#Comment_120995082

Yeah and the problem is that they will be adding to these every day making them stronger or more of them. That's why it's super important that Ukraine can get as far as they can before the really bad weather happens as Russia just needs time to increase their defences. So the more pain Ukraine can dish on the Russians before the bad weather happens the better.

TheRepentent

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994857#Comment_120994857

I think Moscow Mick only sucks at Putins teat , cos he knows if he lived in Russia his corruption would of earned him kudo's

nacho libre

https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-ukraine-possibly-used-cluster-munitions-when-retaking-urozhaine/

So it seems, as we speculated about previously , the Cluster Munitions are having a decisive impact.

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995607#Comment_120995607

I know Russia are using them but I wonder will they increase production of them to use on Ukrainian military.

ColemanY2K

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995403#Comment_120995403

For ordinary Joe's like us there's no way of telling what state the russian forces are in (I'm sure the IC community know full well the current situation). They could collapse in days or hang in there right through the winter. As you said the more attrition the better before winter.

Had the US supplied large quantities of ATACMS in 2022 this war would surely be over by now.

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120995925#Comment_120995925

I don't think the war would be over no matter what was supplied but if everything that is going to be drip fed was just given straight away or ASAP including training on fighter jets starting immediately a huge number of Ukraine civilian and soldiers lives would be saved and Russia army casualties would be far higher.

By now they'd have probably retaken the south and northern luhansk province up by svatove. And by now they'd probably attempting to retake Crimea, Mariupol and Donetsk. Bakhmut would never have fallen.

But alas the West has appeased Russia too much and prolonged this war.