Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Dubh Geannain

The co-ordination needed to try and ride two horses at the same time.

https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-putin-russia-west-25ac6174d5cfde41ccfc56758e3477db

“To the extent the West is reliable, Russia is equally reliable. For the last 50 years, we have been waiting at the doorstep of the EU and, at this moment in time, I trust Russia just as much as I trust the West.”

Maybe it was a little tongue in cheek but that's the phrase the wrote the headline above all else he said.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121131805#Comment_121131805

Yes but if fired from a howitzer it should be possible to open the main shell when it is nearer to the ground giving a more concentrated spread.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132100#Comment_121132100

The west should understand that the Russian mentality is not, and never has been, like that of the west - unless you are talking about the Roman empire.

zv2

Sabotage in Moscow

🇺🇦UkraineIntoucH🇺🇦 on X: "⚡⚡🇺🇦💪Unknown saboteurs blew up two planes and a helicopter near #Moscow, GUR MO. Explosives were planted and AN-148 and IL-20 aircraft (both belonging to the 354th special purpose aviation regiment) and an MI-28N helicopter were blown up. #UkraineWar #UkrainianArmy #Ukraine https://t.co/mnCvll8yZv" / X (twitter.com)

Polar101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132922#Comment_121132922

They sure manage to crash a lot of planes. Must be due to maintenance issues by now.

TedBundysDriver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132702#Comment_121132702

No bother. I thought you where over in Ukraine the way you framed that.

TedBundysDriver

If im not mistaken NATO have threatened war if Russia deploys nukes in this conflict, as the potential for radioactive fallout affecting member states would be considered a hostile act. But Russian nuclear doctrine is built around firing first. On the flip side, Russia has threatened many red lines that have been crossed by Ukraine and the allies.

My concern in this specific case is the potential domino effect. The front line is on the verge of breaking; the potential for another Kherson scale collapse that could isolate Crimea by cutting the overland link and bringing the Kerch Bridge into heavy weapons range is quite real. From Putin's perspective, it may prove an irreversible setback for his war.

He has this salient that is gradually filling up with some serious Ukrainian weaponry. In Putin's desperation, it might prove too tempting a target. The shock factor could freeze the entire front line. He could pull troops back out of immediate range of the blast sites and rebuild defences. I'm not saying that's logical thinking, but in Putin's head it might be. He might gamble that "small" nukes won't have sufficient fallout to travel far outside the warzone - it will be him testing NATO's red line.

It all comes down to how desperate he is, and who's crazy enough to listen to him. But then again, I might just be concerned over nothing.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133163#Comment_121133163

Is this not a rehash of the arguments thrown out about a year and more ago on this thread?? i.e. don't provoke the Russian state or Putin too much in case they go nuclear. Yet as you point out, supposed red lines have been crossed and they haven't. It would lead to worldwide condemnation bar North Korea and Belarus, and quite likely the end of the current Russian regime. The potential for escalation would be huge and the end result entirely unpredictable.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133292#Comment_121133292

I can see both sides of this discussion. Yes, the west has been able to cross numerous red lines (red squares? 🤔) set by Moscow without anything bar an angry barrage of Kinzhals and cruise missiles as a response. And I agree with the point that going nuclear, or indeed going after a NATO country would be supremely damaging and illogical. No rational leader would ever make that decision.

But here's the thing: We're not dealing with a rational actor here. The entire invasion of Ukraine is based on a deeply illogical vision of restoring Russia's former glory, fueled by a siege mentality that has been engrained in the Russian collective psyche. Putin has been acting from a deeply emotional and increasingly desperate base for years at this point, and that's why I tend to see where TedBundysDriver is coming from.

However, I feel like we're beyond the point where this fear should hold the west back. Eventually, Russia needs to be confronted and pushed back, its bluff called. I do believe that the chances of Russia going nuclear are small, but they're not zero. And while I believe the West should continue pushing back against Putin, I hope that NATO has the necessary battle plans in the drawer and ready to go in case he does snap.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133365#Comment_121133365

Agree quite.. no doubt but that the risk of nuclear escalation is not zero.. but is small in any rational world. NATO and allies and other concerned states have been following developments continuously. It's inconceivable that there isn't a whole set of scenarios planned for with degrees of appropriate response. Of course things could get out of hand in real time but the consequences for Russia itself are dire if it goes down this road. Even imperialists have a sense of self preservation.

TedBundysDriver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133292#Comment_121133292

No idea haven't read back on the thread from a year ago. Just musing what Putin's next move will aloud. I can foresee him trying something but personally i don't think he'll push the nuclear button. I wouldn't put it past him to go the chemical warfare route if defeat looks inevitable though. Who knows though, we are dealing with an utter madman.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133163#Comment_121133163

Why do you think the front line is on the verge of breaking? I've been searching/waiting for news of a breach and hundreds of Ukrainian tanks pouring through. But it hasn't happened yet. Russia seems to be better at defense than offense.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133114#Comment_121133114

Nope, but still I will go by what Zelenski says, if he says, negotiate, fine, If he says fight on, that's fine too. I'm prepared to wait for his decision, and not go by the various opinions and suggestions of anyone else.

gw80

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133163#Comment_121133163

I think the most unlikely thing to happen there is that he would pull back his troops out of the blast zone first.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133093#Comment_121133093

In fairness, not only did the US lose an aircraft this week, they literally lost it to the extent that they were asking the public to help find it. They've lost enough in the last month that the USMC had stopped all non emergency flying for a bit.

Miltary aviation is just plain not as reliable and safe as we expect from airliners. It comes with trying to eke out every possible bit of performance from bleeding edge technology. The US lost six aircraft last year and they're not even fighting anyone.

Just keeping perspective.

Azza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133519#Comment_121133519

There is various sources outside of the big mainstream news outlets that cover whats happening in the offensive in more detail. There quite a number of negative indicators for the Russian's such as them having to redeploy troops laterally from other sectors of the front to the Zaporizhzhia area where Ukraine is trying to breakthrough to plug holes, which indicate the Russian's are struggling for manpower, as if they weren't the holes would be plugged by a reserve force that was already in the sector.

There is other indicators such as numerous Russian telegram channels complaining about the lack of rotation of Russian troops in the sector and the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery and Russian counter-battery fire being ineffective.

Blarney_man

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121132173#Comment_121132173

Nah, Dayton was to butcher the Bosnia and Herzegovina. During operation storm, Croatian army breached the border into Bosnia to protect Bihac, and secure the border on the other side to make sure Serbs from Krajina can't come back and attack Croatia again. Sentiment at the time within Croatian generals was that it should be secured all over to Banja Luka so they can't bomb Zagreb in retaliation to the operation storm. Americans ordered a stop just outside Bihac on western front and Derventa up a bit north in Bosnia. Great read below, largest battle on European soil after WW2 (there is probably larger one now in Ukraine)

Operation Storm - Wikipedia

TedBundysDriver

Unbelievable stuff 🙄

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-rejects-defective-lot-german-194612761.html

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133835#Comment_121133835

What's unbelievable about Ukraine having quality control for equipment to be used to help remove the moskovyte scum occupying their country?

ejmaztec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133659#Comment_121133659

I remember years ago in the UK when there were a lot more USAF/RAF bases before the Soviet Union collapsed, and it seemed regular that a USAF jet would crash somewhere on an exercise. Competitive RAF pilots suggested that the Americans weren't as good as RAF pilots when it came to low flying. Whether or not that was true or part of a superiority complex, I don't know. 😛

Dubh Geannain

Another strike in Crimea?

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1704446691187843458

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133961#Comment_121133961

There's a home advantage for british flyers of course, but the shear amount of US military aircraft scattered around the world probably makes most headlines when they do go down.

Addmagnet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133365#Comment_121133365

I think the invasion of Ukraine is all about resources - whether that's oil, gas, water, people, whatever.

I think Putin et al have done their sums and decided what's economic for them in terms of how long they can fight, how many of their own citizens they can throw at the invasion, how many of Ukraine's citizens they feel they can afford to lose etc., versus how much they stand to gain in the long term (and I mean seriously long term). While I don't believe Putin is a master strategist, I also don't believe he's become addled by age or infirmity.

I think the imperialistic guff that gets spouted is all smoke and mirrors, designed to appeal to lowest common denominators at home and abroad. The BOMB stuff that Russian officials periodically trot out is to try to slow down and mitigate the response to the invasion, until the countries that are sending financial and/or military aid to Ukraine stop and sanctions are eased or lifted ('business as usual' tovarisch).

I absolutely believe that if Russia 'profits' in any way from this, they and others of their ilk will do it again, in the future and somewhere else.

Dubh Geannain

A glimpse inside Russia at the mobilised and tight rope their families must walk -

On September 17, Denis Ivanov (the names in this story have been changed for the safety of the heroes) was supposed to come on his first vacation since the start of the so-called partial mobilization. But he never came. Three days before leaving the unit, he called his wife and said that he had every chance of dying in the coming days. The 94th regiment, in which Ivanov serves, confronts the advancing Ukrainian troops. According to the military, several hundred people died in senseless assaults in a few days. They have to go to the enemy "literally with shovels."

The story of Denis Ivanov from the Saratov region was told to the correspondent of Radio Liberty on his own initiative by the family of the mobilized. During an interview with relatives, the military man himself called. The real names and place of residence of the heroes are known to the editors, but are not disclosed for reasons of their safety.

Denis's wife and son live on the outskirts of Saratov - fields begin just behind their house. A small kopeck piece in a mortgage for thirty years, repairs and household appliances on credit. "Like many other wives of the mobilized," Vera shrugs. Little Fedya, who will be two years old one of these days, pulls his mother by the trouser leg and smiles shyly. Vera's sister, Irina, sits in the kitchen. She's here for moral support.

The summons came to Denis in October last year at work.

"Of course, it was a surprise," Vera recalls. - No one expects this. At first, he did not go to pick up the summons. Two weeks later, a second one came. At work - in a security agency - they began to frighten with a criminal record, creating problems for the family. Then he took the summons. And on October 20, he was taken away.

Equipment, like many others mobilized from the Saratov region, was bought with their own. According to Vera, what was given out in the training was worn and more suitable for disposal than for living people.

"He called on Thursday and said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were taking Andriyivka, breaking through to Bakhmut," says Vera. - And they are thrown into this Andreevka practically without weapons - he said: roughly speaking, we go at them with shovels and without artillery support. There is nowhere to retreat, because behind them are their own, who will not feel sorry for them either. He said that of a regiment of a thousand men there were four hundred. Six hundred did not return from their missions. And all this in just two days. And in official reports, we are told that there are only 2-3 people dead.

And this is how Putin has managed to keep a lid on the mothers this time

"Yesterday, my mother-in-law wrote to a group of mothers and wives of the mobilized 94th regiment that our guys are in a difficult situation," says Vera. "That they don't have weapons. And she offered to "spread" this information on social networks. And everyone pounced on her: it is not necessary, they say, to substitute everyone. They are more worried about their salaries than about their husbands. They worry that if the names of the rebels emerge, they will simply be made "missing" and there will be no payments to them.

Basically a couple of hundred may be killed but they only list 4-5 deaths officially. If the families start making utterances the killed are marked as missing and the family is blacklisted.

"They throw us for meat." How Russian troops are trying to recapture Andreevka (svoboda.org)

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121133961#Comment_121133961

F35 lost the other day and a v22 in Australia a couple of weeks before that,it's not so uncommon for military aircraft to crash, but yes the RAF did generally fly lower on exercises especially on the ground attack tornados and Jaguars( see the mach loop in Wales ) where the Americans stick to harddeck and fly all more sensible altitudes ,it's down to whatever doctrine various forces are using

jmreire

Meanwhile, on the Kadyrov status:-

Malinda 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇵🇱🇨🇦🇮🇹🇦🇺🇬🇧🇬🇪🇩🇪🇸🇪 on X: "Kadyrov was diagnosed with brain death, he was put into an artificial coma and doctors from the UAE were called: new data on Ding Dong’s condition has emerged 🐷 Kadyrov could have been put into an induced coma due to the rejection of a transplanted kidney, which began a few… https://t.co/8IXCntRr3u" / X (twitter.com)

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121134172#Comment_121134172

Roll on the chaos

prunudo

Nice terminology, 'diagnosed with brain death'. To be fair, I think I've worked with a few people like that!

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121134023#Comment_121134023

Looks like a storm shadow was seen in one of the videos doing the rounds

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121134164#Comment_121134164

There are some pretty interesting stories about RAF and Royal Navy aircraft taking part in the early Red Flag exercises in the US, Rowland White gathered a few of those in his books Vulcan 607 and Phoenix Squadron. I highly recommend both books, by the way. Anyway, apparently, Vulcan bombers were diving down into the Grand Canyon, utility company workers repaired torn power cables, only to find that they had been cut by an aircraft fin from below, Buccaneers returned from sorties with branches stuck in their airframes, the Brits definitely put the low in low level during those exercises.