Russia - threadbanned users in OP

RoyalCelt

We're October now lads and hasn't been any villages taken in the south for week's. Should we expect it to stay the same until the ground freezes in December?

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182008#Comment_121182008

Unless something major changes its likely to stay that way until summer again,I know that some were hoping the few Abrams that arrived would have been a big deal but not in very limited numbers,

There will be some ground taken but I reckon it will become pretty static for the next while, which might actually be a good thing,they an reassess the current offensive and replan or completely change tactics in the meantime

zv2

Russia's rhetoric is getting more desperate

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182080#Comment_121182080

Would the British soldiers technically be a legitimate target if it was to happen? I mean there in the country training you shoot a ballistic missile and blows up where the training takes place and kill them, would anything happen? I know the German plant 1 is a load of crap as your attacking another country and NATO1 at that but British instructors?

Seanmadradubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182046#Comment_121182046

Giving Russia a chance to strengthen its defences, or giving them a breather by taking off the pressure would not be a good thing. This is why no half decent military analyst thinks that it'll happen.

zv2

When is a spade a spade?

https://twitter.com/knittingknots/status/1707879648204353771

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182116#Comment_121182116

Analysts are saying exactly that they will makes some gains but once the weather kicks things will become static,

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182097#Comment_121182097

They would be a legitimate target,but they have regularly being in Ukraine since 2014 along with other nations including the various branches of the US military army , marines ,and National guards, they were never threatened before so I don't see I happening now , but targeting a military training area wouldn't be off limits,

T

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182097#Comment_121182097

I would guess they are legally* targets. Why not do the training in Poland?

*not that 'legal' has much meaning for Russians.

AMKC

Ukraine will win this War because they have something to fight for there home and they are very resourceful unlike Russia.

Like this for instance,

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-modifying-agricultural-drones-against-russian-tanks-2023-9

Victory to Ukraine.

Seanmadradubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182143#Comment_121182143

We'll see.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182237#Comment_121182237

This isn't a Hollywood movie. Being morally in the right doesn't guarantee victory.

Zelensky himself said it recently: if aid (above all military) from the West dries up, Ukraine will lose the war. This is what will determine the outcome and 2024 is going to be a pivotal year

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182247#Comment_121182247

From reports I have read the change in weather might not impact the attacks on putin's forces by Ukraine that much as they have been unable to use large scale armoured assaults anyway due to the size of the mine fields deployed by putin's troops. Advances in freeing Ukrainian territory have largely been by small infantry units storming moskovyte trenches and these may not be influenced too much by the mud that slows the movement of heavy equipment. Ukraine continues to target moskovvte supply lines so as winter hits this type of attack may be even more effective at destroying the ability of putin's front line troops to continue to occupy Ukrainian territory.

Edit: Just found this article that at the start sums up the points about Ukraine's military tactics not being as influenced by weather as some might have expected.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/01/europe/ukraine-winter-war-intl/index.html

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121181500#Comment_121181500

When I was a young lad, I asked my father who won world war 1. After a couple of glasses of wine, my father looked me dead in the eye and said "there are no winners in war son". This was great philosophical advice which has stuck with me to this day. It was of no real assistance with my homework, for which the teacher wanted the answer of "not Germany".

As this war goes on, and Russian propagandists keep telling us that Ukraine can't win so why try etc, I'm reminded of his sagely words. In reality, Ukraine and Russia are both losing this war. Both have suffered massive damage in terms of lives, their eocnomies and, in the case of Russia, huge reputational loss. On a global scale, it is also costing Ukraine's supporter nations a large amount of money, it is causing havoc for food supply to Africa, there is political instability in the caucuses and in other former Soviet States, and China is finding the renewed attention in defending smaller nations against their larger aggressor neighbours to be unwelcome, to say the least.

Fico being elected is not going to stop funding to Ukraine. I don't pretend to understand the wrangling in the US Congress. However, from what I understand, it is very unlikely to end in the US agreeing to cut all support for Ukraine. A deal will be done. It always is.

It is important to remember that Ukraine are a sovereign nation and they make their own mind up on these things. It is not, as Russian propaganda would have it, a situation where they will fold if their support runs out. As far as I can tell, Ukraine is going to keep fighting until, essentially, they cannot fight anymore. Putin isn't going to back down - maybe. But Zelensky isn't going to back down either. Even if Putin never backs down, it doesn't necessarily equate into Russia conquering all of Ukraine. If Putin isn't going to back down, they are going to become bogged down in Ukraine for years to come. That isn't useful for his geopolitical aspirations.

Lets cut through some of the noise in relation to US and EU support for Ukraine. Lets not get into the debate of is it high minded defence of democracy or is it a proxy war by the US or any of that stuff. If you were a snub nosed military adviser to NATO, who is tasked with only one job, and that is to make NATO ready for a potential war with Russia what would your advice be? I suppose there are a lot of things to be done, like increase munitions production, focus on cheaper but more easily made weaponry, maybe we should get back into static defences and Maginot Line style defensive structures etc etc.

But by far and away, the single best recommendation you can give to your clients i.e. the NATO Member States, is that you should keep funding Ukraine. So long as Russia are fighting Ukraine, they aren't going to fight anyone else. The more men and materiel that the Russians lose, the harder it will be for them to invade a NATO country. The more of Ukraine that Russia has to hold and maintain through force of arms, the greater the rebuilding cost. But if Russia manage to absorb Ukraine or a significant portion of Ukraine, it will strengthen their hand and make them want to take a bite out of another country, probably one in Eastern Europe.

So if you don't want to be invaded and annexed by Russia, you have to help Ukraine now.

On a more geopolitical level, the Republicans are preventing a very superificial brexitey type argument. Instead of spending X on Ukraine we could spend it on Y. There is no serious debate on this because it is, in reality, a bit of rhetoric used by a minority of one party to secure non specific concessions at budget time. If there was a real debate on it, the point would be made that if the US wants to maintain its preeminent position in the world, they have to support Ukraine against Russia. If they don't, they could lose their position. No one in the Republican party, and especially the MAGA end of it, want America to lose its privileged position as first amongst nations. Even Donald Trump isn't advocating for a mindless defunding of Ukraine. Indeed, he was responsible for arming them to a significant degree during 2016-2020 giving them billions in military and other aid, and he has threatened at times to increase aid to Ukraine if Russia don't enter a peace deal with them.

So yes, the future does look grim. There will be no winners. We will all be a lot poorer and less secure. But Ukraine are not going to be abandoned by the rest of the world, nor are Ukraine anywhere near giving up. Putin too may not give up, but no one is expecting him to. Instead, people are expecting the Russian army or elites to give up on Putin.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182610#Comment_121182610

That's what Putin is banking on.

Seanmadradubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182647#Comment_121182647

Exactly this.

Russia didn't stop fighting for Bakhmut last winter, Soledar fell to them in January. Someone would have to come up with a very good reason why the Russians can continue fighting and make gains during the winter but Ukraine can't in order to be taken seriously.

Pausing would be not just a tactical, but a strategic mistake of monumental proportions for Ukraine, and result in many needless casualties over the long term.

Seanmadradubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182610#Comment_121182610

You are correct that being morally in the right dosen't guarantee victory, but fighting for your home (which is what the poster mentioned) has nothing to do with morality, but it is about survival and people fighting for their very survival will not go down easily, this is a definite advantage Ukraine has in this fight.

amandstu

Let's not forget that Progozhy moment.

How solid was Putin's support then?

How long will it last now before something else arises to test it?

To be honest ,I was one of those who was happy enough when Putin first gained power as he looked like an intelligent man (not a good man but an intelligent one) who could buy time for Russia to adapt to the new dispensation after the Cold War.

His actions since then were understandable, if wretchedly disappointing and I sympathise with Russia wanting to be seen as an equal to the US (which they are not btw by any criteria).

If they want to follow the path of antagonism towards the West that is also OK

But they have no right to inflict their prejudices on their neighbours by unleashing the dogs of war on them.

They have made a fatal misstep in their invasion of Ukraine and our response should be ,firstly to defend Ukraine and secondly to have a close mind on the consequences for Russia itself as it tears itself apart in the near future ,I fear (and also,secretly welcome ,unfruitful as that outcome will surely be)

Relax brah

Credit where it’s due the brits are not in any way intimidated by Putin. Defence minister saying they are considering going into Ukraine is a ballsy statement which could prevent a lot war in Europe.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182880#Comment_121182880

They had no choice but to fight for bakmuth ,if they didn't slow down or stop the Russians they would have lost a lot more than an obliterated town ,but it cost them dearly in manpower at the time

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121182988#Comment_121182988

They are talking about training Ukrainians forces something they have been doing since 2014 ,there no putting boots on the ground to fight,and even at that they wouldn't be the only foreign military in Ukraine, there is foreign advisors on the ground,

It could be sign sending 20,000 men to the UK for 3 months isn't the most logistically sound plan when you can train similar numbers inside of Ukraine and deploy where and when needed

Say my name

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1708426003771453695?t=WigAseNPeQjaY3Aq7R2f_g&s=19

This is gone over my head.

Could someone explain what's the older song and tune?

And also a translation of what the girl is singing of Putin.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121183164#Comment_121183164

The great irony would be that although Russia would grumble and growl bitterly about these British forces being there, the British forces would have every right to be there given they've actually been invited.

Say my name

https://youtu.be/t-wFKNy0MZQ?si=UJqlCZUIXwY2mHwQ

From 7 years ago.

Putin. Put out.

Gatling

Interviews from individuals at last nights concert celebrating the new territories in Russia.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1708569436192395756?s=20

Gatling

Interesting piece from the polish prime Minister

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1708559578776965418?s=20

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1708562048391463306?s=20

amandstu

And here is a man who is "even" greater than Putin

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1wFWR5qCB2k&pp=ygUccmFuZHkgbmV3bWFuIHB1dGluIHRpbnkgZGVzaw%3D%3D

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121183263#Comment_121183263

He’s happy to take billions from the Germans every year though. Bit of a mouth the polish prime minister and so much for “western” solidarity. Moscow will be happy with him.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121183263#Comment_121183263

I don't think Ukraine care too much, they just want weapons and support.

I don't see Germany making any statements about withholding arms delivery to Ukraine.

I don't see Germany kicking back about Ukrainian grain entering the EU.

We are long past the days of 5000 helmets. Germany has upped their game wrt arms deliveries to Ukraine. The fact he's stating that speaks volumes.

Seems like Poland are afraid Ukraine will be more German leaning than Polish leaning? It's a silly thing, I'm sure Ukraine would lean to anyone for arms to help defend itself. If German defense companies are willing to operate factories within Ukraine, then of course Ukraine should jump on that.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121183305#Comment_121183305

But at the same time ukraine are happy to take Billions from Poland and then threaten them for trying to protect polish agriculture sectors,so far it's only one German company rhemimenthal looking to set up in Ukraine, which makes sense especially if they are primarily only going to be repairing damaged German vehicles, cheaper than the Germans having to pick up damaged vehicles in Ukraine and transporting them to Germany and back to Ukraine again,and there's likely substantial financial rewards for rhemimenthal too ,so not so charitable, from what I can gather it's several other countries footing the bill too ,

It's not a simple as oh Germany companies are queuing up to get into Ukraine