Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Paddigol

Significance of Biden's meeting with the Chinese? Attempts to sideline Russia, even slightly, from their biggest ally?

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376390#Comment_121376390

On point d), I know it's asking an awful lot of him, but has Trump given any kind of coherent answer on what his Ukraine policy would be apart from"I'll sort it all out within 24 hours" and the usual shite he comes out with?

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376390#Comment_121376390

Sadly something in that..

a) Not as successful as I and some others thought (not a failure though)

b) Russia has huge losses but doesn't care (at least Putin)

c) Arms supply to Ukraine are slow and need to improve

d) Biden may well lose God help us all if Trump wins.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376492#Comment_121376492

Of course not. Just add it to the list of complex problems he says he can solve with vague but simple solutions. I'd imagine a good indicator of what it may consist of would be that his Middle Eastern Peace plan consisted of completely sidelining and ignoring the Palestinians. In this case he'd probably just negotiate directly with Putin and ignore the Ukrainians before cutting them off from aid before trying to pull the USA out of NATO.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376473#Comment_121376473

Any good that came from the meeting Biden went and blew when he called him a dictator.

m2_browning

In the highly unlikely event US stops all aid to Ukraine what’s to stop Ukrainians driving armour via Belarus and its undefended border and reaching Moscow in under three days while whole of Russian military is tied up

Do a Wagner on it

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121374802#Comment_121374802

They are hoping and praying that Trump will be elected next year, and funding and support for Ukraine will dry up. Putin has placed every thing on this last gamble, and its pure desperation, because he has no other cards left to play. Because even if ( and its a big IF) Trump does get elected, there's no guarantee which way he will jump. Trump being Trump, he could just as easy turn out to be Putin's worst nightmare come true ! ( wishfull thinking, I know....but still.....)

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376691#Comment_121376691

Bear in mind the damage could be done. EU and others have stepped up and surpassed the US. Trump may not have the power to immediately cease military aid to Ukraine.

Unless the US starts supplying Russia then it could be too late.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121374947#Comment_121374947

Putin's whole premise and justification for invading Ukraine was under the guise of "protecting" Russians from the evil Nazi hordes in Ukraine who are threatening Russia. To be seen to be retreating ( as against the more commonly used " Moving to a better strategic position) would be admitting that he is no longer capable of protecting Russians. and therefore needs to be replaced by some one who can protect them.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376751#Comment_121376751

Of course, anything could happen, this story is far from over. Worst case, Trump gets elected, and noy only promptly cuts all Support from Ukraine that he possibly can at this stage, with on going reductions as time passes, but actually decides to help Putin as you suggest. Loss of US support would be a big blow, but not insurmountable. Ukraine has to fall back on help from the EU / UK. So be it. Ukraine will survive, and even if Russia was to mount a really massive attack on all of Ukraine, and win, ( very unlikely) they will never be able to hold it. When the present day Russia was the mighty USSR, with far more resources, men and equipment, they were unable to hold Afghanistan, so Ukraine will be a far more painful and costly project for them. Ultimately, Putin made a very bad decision when he decided to invade. Now all he can do is to keep the charade going as long as he can.

20silkcut

Trump has stated before (can’t find the exact quote ) that he would pressure Putin into a ceasefire and if he refused he would dramatically increase aid to Ukraine. But that also means he would pressure Ukraine into a ceasefire and basically give up crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

Economics101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376855#Comment_121376855

You are assuming that the GOP will have control of Congress. THere appears to be a better picture for the Dems at congressional elections than polling numbers are indicating for Biden (not that one puts much faith in polls a year away from the election).

I could see Congress giving Trump hell if he really tried shafting Ukraine, unless of course he tries to unleash another Jan 6th mob.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376433#Comment_121376433

The whole point is that Putin cannot allow even the faintest glimmer of protest to exist. His life literally depends on it. Just imagine...to day one protest, tomorrow, 5, the day after 15 etc, etc. And it would quickly reach mass protest level's, were it not for Putin's massive clamp down, he would have been dethroned a long time ago. Bring on the day when Russians finally over come their fear of Putin's criminal gang, and take to the streets is numbers that even Putin's militia's cannot control.

m2_browning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376912#Comment_121376912

Which further lowers Russian “infinite manpower” pool as millions are needed to maintain a police state

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376906#Comment_121376906

My comment was a pretty open ended case of "what If" , and even if Trump wins and does his worst regarding support for Ukraine ( the Putin premise) That will not be the end of the story. Because even at this point in time, there are plenty of Americans who recognize the threat that Putin poses, not only to Ukraine, but to the wider world too. Especially his links with China.

m2_browning

US is spending 1.5 trillion to update its nuclear arsenal that’s more than total Russian GDP

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/behind-the-scenes-at-a-u-s-factory-building-new-nuclear-bombs/

Putin made a mistake in pulling out of treaties

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376900#Comment_121376900

If Ukraine ever does get Crimea and those Eastern territories back I suspect Russia would fund a terror campaign that would make Belfast in the 70s look like an island of peace. If they were offered to give up those territories in exchange for NATO and EU membership, opening the path to full integration into the West, it would be very interesting to see what path Ukraine would choose. Get bogged down in an endless war, or move 80 percent of the country in a positive direction and look at the issue of the East again when Putin is gone and/or Russia ever turns a positive corner?

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121377057#Comment_121377057

The allies gave up East Germany and Eastern Europe for 45 years. So it’s not a huge stretch to imagine a scenario where eastern Ukraine becomes a Cold War type scenario. At the bare minimum Putin is sure that those territories will be sacrificed. But deep down in his delusion he probably thinks article 5 wont save the Baltics or the likes of Moldova either. And if he survives this current war I wouldn’t bet against him testing that at some point in the not too distant future. In fairness another viktor orban type character in another major European country would be a massive boost to those goals. Without a clear strategy to destroy Putin he will always be a danger to Europe. And there is no clear cohesive strategy. Russia are controlling the intensity of this war by default, by their incompetence. Ukraine just seem to be kept in the game with carefully calibrated weapons supplies to whatever the threat level Russia pose. But at no point are they allowed to up the intensity themselves and drive the Russians out and collapse the Putin regime .

Steviemak7

....

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121377094#Comment_121377094

Yes, a good summary of were we're at and possible long term prospects if things don't change soon.

The policy very much "Russia must not be allowed win this war" rather than "Russia must be totally defeated".

m2_browning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121377179#Comment_121377179

I guess you missed the news of Russian hyperbullcrap missiles being regularly intercepted and the news of repeated Russian test nuke rocket launches failing

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121377179#Comment_121377179

On the balance of reality revealed by this war, I'd not be convinced Russia's nuclear arsenal either works, or exists.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121377094#Comment_121377094

In fairness, if Eastern European countries express some kind of democratic mandate to ally with Russia (i.e. by electing a pro-Russian government), then they should be allowed to do that, as much as I think it would be a bad idea, personally, and disagree with Putin's vision of how the world order should be. But if they're a member of the EU, their membership or benefits of being such, should be heavily reexamined, so long as the EU is opposed to Putin's Russia.

What I fundamentally object to is Putin's Russia attempting to exert its political will on surrounding countries through direct military intervention, especially where and when said countries' people and/or governments are not consenting to coming under increased Russian influence. We can see the Ukrainian people fighting tooth and nail to prevent this process for many years, now.

I don't think Russia has the stuff, militarily, to eat into Eastern Europe in any significant way. We already see how much they're being bogged down just against the NATO handmedowns that Ukraine have been receiving. A conventional war against a joint NATO force does not end in anything like the stalemate we're currently seeing in Ukraine. It ends with Russian forces scurrying back over their borders, saying blyat.

It's only if the NATO alliance ends up not being worth the paper it's printed on that Russia has some kind of a chance, but even then, Russia would have it's work cut out against an ad-hoc alliance of say Poland, Germany and France.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121377057#Comment_121377057

Those eastern territories are valuable for both growing grain and in terms of minerals. Crimea gives more access to the Black Sea. If push comes to shove eventually I suspect Crimea might be more useful to Ukraine. But ceding anything permanently just means that they'll have to go on the offensive at some time in the future to regain them.

As for Trump, surely he's badly wounded. The Rep party made the mistake once of getting him in, their strategists must surely be taking aim carefully and will take him down once and for all when the time is opportune. For all his charisma and bluster, he's toxic.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121377057#Comment_121377057

I'd say that every country in that region has given up on Russia ever changing, based on past history. Maybe 20 or 30 ( or more) years post Putin there might be a rethink, but currently? No, I doubt it. It will have to be dismantled and re-built from the ground up, and who knows if that's even possible?

Overheal

According to tonight's PBS news hour that I'm watching live right now, this is still happening, the US hasn't yet closed the loophole

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2023/04/18/these-five-countries-are-laundering-russian-oil-study-says-and-selling-it-to-the-west/?sh=514239b686cd

The reporting tonight:

https://www.youtube.com/live/kqHXAX6yUGg?si=brVK17_51FVy9jWh&t=2029

Sleepy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121376756#Comment_121376756

You know probably better than I that he could easily declare "Mission Accomplished - We've killed all the Nazis" and the Russian public would have no choice but to accept this. His real problem at this point would be that all public attention would return to domestic issues and then the wheels totally fall off. Russia is in a tailspin economically, socially and demographically and even if all sanctions on them were removed the day after their withdrawal, that's not going to change. Revolution / Regime change will eventually come imo (it's pretty much inevitable when there stops being food on the shelves of the supermarkets) all Putin can do is try to delay it until after his own lifetime.

m2_browning

Russian agriculture is one to watch, in Soviet days it never produced enough (having to import massive amounts from evil USA) often destroying good soils

but from 90s they got modern farm equipment and methods and business practices that somewhat increased productivity

something Ukraine has and Russia doesn’t, especially if they start feeding the farmers into the meat grinder too (already sending oil workers to die)

Rawr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121377057#Comment_121377057

I thought we were long past the point of Ukraine needing Russian permission to join NATO or the EU? Finland pretty much imploded the concept of their namesake "Finlandisation" by joining NATO regardless of Russian sabre-rattling & threats. The only barriers to Ukraine's NATO membership now are the Russians on their territory and the approval of other NATO members. Apart from that, the AFU is being converted gradually into a de-facto NATO-grade force.

The Russian occupation will however not stop EU membership. That might still take a good few years, but as with the case of Cyprus having a hostile neighbour invading, it does not stop you from joining the economic union.

Also, we have been over this countless times in the thread, but awarding any territory to the Russians for what they have done is an invitation for them to try again later. Whatever "peace" won would be very temporary, and any treaty with Putin would be worthless. The best the Russians should hope for are a normalisation of relations with the West and the dropping of sanctions. The price of that has *at the very least* been withdrawal from all of Ukraine, and as time progresses that price could increase to include a shopping list of War-Criminals for The Hauge or varing degrees of dearming or even DMZs imposed within Russian territory.