Russia - threadbanned users in OP

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407139#Comment_121407139

What do you propose russia should do to achieve your aim?

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407062#Comment_121407062

Russia has collapsed before, it wasn't some "world ending" event, quite the opposite. And that was when it was a superpower, now it's a heavily sanctioned country with a GDP smaller than the state of Texas.

The Kremlin was boasting of taking Ukraine in 3 days, instead they've lost over a quarter million men, and have been pushed back in one of the most humiliating military reversals in modern times. Has Putin lost any grip on power? Nope.

If Ukraine prevail further, the Russian kleptocracy will simply plow on as normal and continue blaming the West for all the problems. Like it's supporters do.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407139#Comment_121407139

Russia can end the war at any time by simply turning around.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407139#Comment_121407139

2 of the 3 outcomes you propose aren't peaceful outcomes as far as I can tell. Is your outcome #3 peaceful? This 'new world order' sure doesn't seem like it'll be peaceful. Does that 'new world order' bring peace to all the other conflicts in the world? Yemen/Ethiopia/Sub-Saharan Africa/...

Virgil°

The absolute excitement when I see 50 odd unread posts on the Russia thread.... hoping for some exciting good news,

• Dnipro river crossing breakthrough?
• Russian Avdiivka soldiers finally rebelling instead of agreeing to soak up UAF shells for no reason?
• Maybe even a few more black sea fleet boats being promoted to submarine?

Nope just a miserable Peacenik scuttering up the thread with horse manure. Total blueballs.

Steviemak7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407382#Comment_121407382

Same. Dipped in expecting news but alas....

jmreire

Yes, there has been an uptick in attacks on mainly the military recruitment / call up offices especially in the republics. Generally carried out after dark. Police stations not so much, because the police in Russia are well armed, and the stations even more so. Plus, they are closely connected to the police network. If a call goes out, the place will be swarming with Police within a very short time. As for taking a few of Putins men with them, unlike the US marines in Vietnam, they had a system in place to "take care" of any officer who was deemed to be putting his men's lives needlessly at risk. "Fragging" was the term used I believe. This culture never really caught on in the Russian army. It's something to do with Russian conditioning, going back to the communist days. You will notice this attitude / stance in any of the videos sent from the front, showing Russian soldiers literally begging for help, they have nothing, food , weapons, clothing, shelter, medicine, leadership etc. They are imploring Putin for help. Not much chance of any of them taking the initiative of any kind, never mind killing their officers. None the less, I'd say that it's not totally unknown either, given the maelstrom of firing that goes on during an attack or a defense.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407062#Comment_121407062

I doubt your point about the refugees and Europe in event Russia suffers a defeat serious enough it results in Putin being ousted or something.

Russia is already working overtime to destabilise the EU with refugees, Putin's best buddy Lukashenko was doing the same on the Polish border for years and now its kicking into gear on other borders (Finland).

Also Putin bombed the crap out of Syria, helped create the 2016 migrant crisis in Europe related to the war in that country, impacts of that are felt in politics in the EU to this day I think.

Russia is trying very hard to destroy Ukraine's agricultural production to deprive it of export earnings and wreck its economy. That will increase food prices around the world...more refugees to Europe.

A collapse of Putin's evil...erm..."regime" and a period where Russia turns inward working out what comes next will help reduce migrant pressures on Europe & the EU IMO.

Also noone who has a functioning brain should care about the Russian propaganda or what the "regime" thinks of us in the "West". We should be well past that.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121406905#Comment_121406905

I've never thought of you as a supporter of Putin.

But you know well my thoughts and that of many others, that the Russian public and expat citizenry cannot be absolved of all accountability. They just don't get to wash their hands like that.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407127#Comment_121407127

Don't get the idea that these behaviors don't happen in the West. Western governments are not in your face thugs like the Russian ruling class are. Western governments are much more subtle about how they go about invading other countries, such as bringing freedom and democracy to Iraq and Libya (R2P) come to mind. When Western governments want to go to war they don't ask you or me, they find a law to enable them, it's all legal and above board.

We don't use fascism (state directed capitalism) anymore, we call it public/private partnership. The taxpayer gets put on the hook for corporate subsidies and bailouts, the politicians get paid off in book sales, speaking engagements and corporate directorships, jobs for the relatives or get rich from insider trading benefiting from the laws they pass or grants they allocate. All legal.

We don't assassinate journalists, we cancel and memory hole them or we appoint them to state quangos.

Alexandr Solzhenitsyn described this doctrine of legalism in 1978, there is other stiff in that speech relevant to the conflict today.

Western society has given itself the organization best suited to its purposes based, I would say, one the letter of the law. The limits of human rights and righteousness are determined by a system of laws; such limits are very broad. People in the West have acquired considerable skill in interpreting and manipulating law. Any conflict is solved according to the letter of the law and this is considered to be the supreme solution. If one is right from a legal point of view, nothing more is required. Nobody will mention that one could still not be entirely right, and urge self-restraint, a willingness to renounce such legal rights, sacrifice and selfless risk. It would sound simply absurd. One almost never sees voluntary self-restraint. Everybody operates at the extreme limit of those legal frames. source

Western governments tolerated Russia, and sought a legal means to resolve the conflict and importantly keep oil & gas flowing.

This is from 2016: THE WEST’S RESPONSE TO THE UKRAINE CONFLICT - A TRANSATLANTIC SUCCESS STORY

Minsk II managed to move the conflict largely — but not entirely — from the military playing field to the diplomatic playing field; since then, the main struggle has been about what the agreement means.

Russia wants to use it as a tool to gain decisive influence over Ukraine by making a Moscow-controlled Donbas its main lever over internal Ukrainian affairs, while Ukraine and its Western backers insist that the main point of Minsk is to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity, its control over its borders.

In the end it was just a stalling tactic and pax Merkel dissipated with her departure.

"I would have preferred a more peaceful period after my departure, because I really did spend a lot of time on Ukraine," says Merkel.

"But it didn’t come as a surprise. The Minsk agreements had eroded. In summer 2021, after President Biden met with Putin, Emmanuel Macron and I had wanted to put together a productive negotiating format in the EU Council. Some were opposed to the idea and I no longer had the power to push it through, because everyone knew I’d be gone that autumn. I asked others in the Council: 'Why aren’t you speaking up? Say something.’ One said: 'It’s too big for me.’ The other merely shrugged his shoulders, saying that it was an issue for the big countries. If I had run again for re-election that September, I would have followed up. It was the same story during my farewell visit in Moscow. The feeling was quite clear: 'You’re done with power politics.’ For Putin, only power counts. He brought Lavrov along for this last visit. Usually, we tended to meet face-to-face." source

A reason can always be found to go to war, Western governments go through legal channels. In Russia, the Tsars directive becomes law, it's always been that way. Ordinary Russians too expect that the law will protect them, however, when it some to the special military operation, the laws that are meant protect them from state power are turned on them.

m2_browning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407725#Comment_121407725

Eh no for one we are having this conversation (freely) online instead of bleeding for a criminal in a field

Your attempts at trying to downplay the shitshow that Russia only further highlight your detachment from reality and shows you have fallen for the same cynicism and conspiracies that Russian propaganda works so hard to promote as it breeds and army of useful idiots who excuse their barbarism and criminality

Polar101

Peaceful outcome in a war? That's definitely an oxymoron.

Also, the "West" doesn't tolerate Russia any more - things changed a bit in 2022 when they launched a full-scale war. That's always where the tankie rhetoric fails.. it's not what about Afghanistan, what about Iraq, what about gas, what about Crimea, what about NATO expansion - it's what about Putin's invasion.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407702#Comment_121407702

I'm not trying to absolve Russians of their responsibilities, for sure Putin does have a certain nr (and not an inconsequential Nr either) but to tar all Russians as being supporters of Putin's madness, is simply not true.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407243#Comment_121407243

President Putin, can indeed turn around, declare victory and end the war today and he must. His fate and those of the siloviki protecting him are tied to the outcome of the war and defeat does not look like Khrushchev style retirement to a luxury dacha in the Valdai hills. Too many Russian men dead and a demographic crisis, defeat means a power vacuum with a lot of angry combat veterans in the country, available to hire.

Realistically, Putin and his allies will likely see 2024 as make or break, they know the Ukrainian front lines are at breaking point, they know the West is in an election cycle. The aim for this Winter will be to break the Ukrainian front lines and wreck the countries infrastructure, then move to take the remaining parts of the oblasts they hold and dictate terms to Ukraine.

Ukraine does not have the men to sacrifice, holding out against constant meat-wave attacks which are making incremental gains. The Russian leadership are counting on taking Avdiivka this Winter, likely after the mud freezes, the Russian command has to report victories before the March "election".

To get back to scenario 1: Iran's game is likely to try split the Abraham accords agreement and get its nuclear program complete. Instability in the Middle East has a higher rank in the politics of USA, China and Europe than Ukraine does. The United States is moving into an election cycle, where providing support to Ukraine is a contentious issue. Historically there always has been political opposition in the USA to foreign intervention, for context pre-1941 (Pearl Harbour), most Americans did not want their country involved in the war. American government debt has reached levels that primary dealers cannot process and China is offloading American debt facing and economic crisis of it's own. The US election voting and counting must also be seen as fair and accountable, both sides like to game the system, if this does not happen political disruption is guaranteed. The 2024 US presidential is likely to be a 3 horse race + house elections as well. 2024 also sees European parliament elections, while these don't carry the same weight as the US elections, they will likely precipitate change in the political organisation of the member countries. Should the Middle East conflict expand and Avdiivka fall, combined with the expected Winter infrastructure attacks from the Russians, the Ukrainian government and army will face a crisis of confidence.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407139#Comment_121407139

Half of the soldiers in the trenches are already "home". It's the other half that need to leave.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407294#Comment_121407294

Before the end of WWII, there were discussions and agreements on what the post war world would look like. That agreement sucked if you lived in eastern Europe, it worked out well for countries aligned under pax-Americana.

China is both Irans and Saudi Arabias biggest customer, China is also in the midst of an internal economic crisis, they really don't want disruption. If the Persian gulf gets disrupted then it adds to Chinese governments domestic problems, which may lead to an upsurge in patriotic nationalism. I expect that given its business interests China will become the moderating influence in the region and take a pragmatic approach to diplomacy, instead of all the wolf warrior diplomacy crap they have been pushing in recent years, this will require agreement with the USA which may be underway.

Since 2000, the neocons dominate foreign policy in the United States, their ideas have been the primary driver of US foreign intervention, they are not likely to come to agreement with China. Here is senator John McCain from 2014.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93eyhO8VTdg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLAzeHnNgR8

Historically, British diplomats are quite good at getting international agreements stitched together, bringing David Cameron back into the cabinet may bring some normalcy to their diplomatic relations after the Brexit fiasco.

The United States is dominant economically and culturally and still has an outsized military, however, the countrys military adventures since 2000 have not been translated into the success they had in post World war II Germany, Japan and South Korea.

As can be seen from WWII the West is not above making deals with dictators, the EU tried to make a deal with president Putin and that failed officially in February 2022. A military victory to the Russia/Ukraine war is likely to mean NATO boots on the ground, which could happen in one of two scenarios, a Ukrainian army collapse east of the Dnipro river to halt the Russians outside Kiev, or a final push to clear out an exhausted but entrenched Russian army (e.g. Americans entry in WW I).

junkyarddog

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1727774486756237686

WTF!!!😧

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407702#Comment_121407702

Fact is Furze99, as far as you are concerned, all Russians are guilty of what Putin has done, and they are all accountable. My view is the polar opposite, I do not believe that all Russians are responsible for what Putin is doing. For sure, the estimated 330'000 dead and double (at least) maimed and disabled, their relatives and friends are not supportive of Putin's war. Neither are the 300'000 due to be called up after the Election. And the next 300'000. Putin's friends (Oligarchs and Siloviki) are calling for a million strong army. You think that all these are supportive of Putin? But for you every single Russian is responsible. You are unable to even row back and admit that, well maybe not all of them support Putin. Because Putin's support is very far from his claimed 80% (Kremlin figures) support, very far from it indeed, and for sure most Russians do not want this war, but as I've tried to explain to you, they arec powerless to do anything about it, you saw what happened to the woman in the video I posted, when she refused to sign the way they wanted. This happens thousands of times each day in different parts of Russia.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121409122#Comment_121409122

I don't think anyone is buying your pearl clutching about poor russia/NATO contrarianism schtick by the way.

Lirange

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121408460#Comment_121408460

“they know the Ukrainian front lines are at a breaking point.”

Can you provide evidence of this claim? You casually drop that in as if it is an accepted, established fact.

It’s an interesting take to frame the Avdiivka/Bakhmut tactics as an effective strategy given that we have seen no evidence of that in this conflict. As has been noted already in this thread Russia has not shown it has the capacity to make any significant or consequential territorial advances beyond the initial phase of their invasion. There is a large discrepancy between your speculative assessment of the future course of the conflict and what we have been seeing transpire.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121407116#Comment_121407116

Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Describes Zelensky to a "T". he held the whole show together in Ukraine's darkest hour.

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121409278#Comment_121409278

I say putin is delighted to get rid of people like this in Ukraine if they die. Kills off the scum of Russia and you don't have to worry about some of them been released and commit violent crimes again as there dead. Makes room in jail cells for anyone who protests back in Russia, evil but smart at same way.

jmreire

Anyway, on a slightly different note, for anyone doubting the effectiveness of the sanctions have a look at this link.

Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Russian civil aviation is on the verge of collapse: The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine conducted a cyber operation against Rosaviation and obtained classified documents of the Russian Ministry of Transport. The intelligence managed to find out that: ▪️ In January 2023, 185 air… https://t.co/yyy46aEmU5" / X (twitter.com)

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121409645#Comment_121409645

Yes, when it works out like that, and statistics favor it, none the less, several have survived the war, and returned home, and in some cases, reverted to form and killed again.

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121409951#Comment_121409951

Yeah I saw some of those cases but I say for them still it's a win as a lot more of them will die in Ukraine then survive to come home and commit these crimes. I suppose down the line they will have massive issues with soldiers returning with trauma so I say eventually you will see a good few of them in prison and committing crimes in Russia. I actually wonder has the crime rate on some things gone down in Russia since the Ukraine invasion, if a lot of criminals who asked to go to Ukraine who were in prison to be pardoned die then they can't reoffend.

I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-rising-artillery-losses-ukraine-totally-depleted-shells-1846415

Ukrainian Arty superiority will only expand as time goes on which strikes right into the heart of russian military doctrine. No amount of meat waves can even hold a stalemate with no arty to support them.

"The pressure of worn-out barrels is a particularly big issue, Stupak said." I mentioned this a few weeks ago too, they can't replace them at any meaning rate.

pcardin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121406186#Comment_121406186

Hes smiling in photo, so I think its the number 4 - Banketny

Mike3549

LOL

https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1727952394837712928?t=7XQ_LFnZXGG0-v0xSG6nDA&s=19

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121410023#Comment_121410023

Yes, and when a crime is committed now in Russia, criminals face an indirect death penalty ie: end up in Ukraine, so I'd say some criminals are thinking twice. But corruption being what it is in Russia, its a way of life, so only in time will statistics' show the side effects of Putins war.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121410360#Comment_121410360

It's a long way on a bike. especially in the wintertime.

m2_browning

Having been a few hundred km to the west of that checkpoint this time of year which is above the arctic circle, best of luck to anyone participating in Putin’s ironman games

Its good to see that states bordering russia are on the ball and quickly react to Putin’s bullshit, it shows growing immunity to the Russian neo fascist virus