Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121563019#Comment_121563019

As apparently a parasitical organism (and a light colonel to boot), I'm curious to hear the substantiation of this statement, and then compare with my twenty plus years since I commissioned.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568896#Comment_121568896

They are viruses within the organisation, an anachronistic and outdated concept. They provide little in actual specialty, instead creating environments to further their existence. Bloated bureaucracies, focused on short term actions to deliver OER bullets. They create institutional inertia, suppressing innovation and dynamism in favor of risk aversion and ass covering.

They are vestigial. Anything of value they bring, is capable of being performed by trained specialists, without the additional hierarchical nonsense.

Manic Moran

That's a... erm... take.

There have been three militaries which have tried abolishing officers in the interests of egalitarianism and cultural revolution. (Actually they tried abolishing all official rank, even without abolishing the distinguishment of duties). Soviet Union (1918-1924, then they brought back in 'ranks in disguise' 1924-1935), PRC (1965-1988) and Albania (1966-1991). All decided it was a stupid idea and re-established them after a while. Granted, Soviet era junior officers often tended to perform functions which were conducted by enlisted in Western militaries, but at the higher levels, the job descriptions tended to merge with those of other nations.

Officers are planners and co-ordinators, trained specialists in such areas. Or, in other words, officers figure out what needs to be done, NCOs figure out how to get it done, and the junior enlisted and specialists actually do it. I wouldn't dream of telling a Master Gunner how to do his job, but the Master Gunner similarly has not been trained in implementation of doctrine. He doesn't have time, he's too busy being a subject matter expert in getting the tank and crews to shoot straight.

There is another factor which officers need to deal with but enlisted don't. The commander is responsible for everything the unit does and fails to do. We cannot delegate responsibility to enlisted, even if we delegate the authority. If something goes wrong, it's on our heads.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121564878#Comment_121564878

For sure Russia is struggling with manpower, just like Ukraine is, just like both sides are struggling to get enough weapons to make progress. My point was simply that neither side has made any major progress in the last year and the Crimean beach party predictions from some here proved as far fetched as the 3 day war predictions from the other side, so really both sides should learn to be a bit more circumspect when gazing into the crystal ball

drop table Users

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569067#Comment_121569067

But I didn’t make a prediction I posted an article reported by Russians in Russian media and asked the obvious question why if Russia “has endless manpower” they have to resort to such despicable and quite possibly worthy of more war crimes actions

You are the one on other hand who bizarrely immediately jumped upon the post for some reason and who went off on a tangent and invented what was not posted

You can’t both sides this as Ukraine is not gang pressing foreigners into service, for that matter they seem quite reluctant to even expand the draft of their own

Which raises the question now of why you in particular felt this post was worthy of being downplayed and deflected upon with such haste

vswr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121567107#Comment_121567107

Probably had similar experience to any officer in the ARW.... maybe people would find the brief more palatable if it was presented by Ray Goggins (not sure if he was commissioned though).

Addmagnet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121566693#Comment_121566693

... ordinary people want to see Ukrainian MPs suffer like they and their kids do ...

Huh, there's a rude awakening coming to the Ukrainians if they think the MPs of other countries do any suffering like "the little people".

silverharp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121563159#Comment_121563159

does it matter?, if the Russians were so badly equipped they would have lost the summer offensive, what point do you think is important?

drop table Users

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569432#Comment_121569432

She despite admitting to be over two decades in Ireland and now naturalised keeps claiming to speak on behalf of all Ukrainians but instead regurgitates Russian propaganda talking points like clockwork

Very sus

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568934#Comment_121568934

All things that can be done by trained personnel, without the rank portion. A significant portion of planning is also done by NCOs. Certainly wouldn't trust an officer to plan any sort of tactical operation. Any of the best Unit organizations are entirely NCO driven. The up and out function attributed to officers largely consists of fulfillment of needlessly paper churn, designed to give validity to those positions. Endless trackers, PowerPoints and conops.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568701#Comment_121568701

Maybe not at the moment, if you go by territory lost / gained, but for sure Ukraine is winning in terms of losses of men and machines, by a long shot. And now, the war has started to come to Russia proper, and not only on the economic front, but with bombs falling on Russian cities. Putin talks about a new round of mobilizations (300'000) but only after he has stolen the upcoming election. Why wait, if he's so sure? The fact is he's not sure, and does not want to take a chance, small and all as that chance is that he might not be re-elected. He's afraid. Thinks are not going well in Putins Russia, so time is running out for him too., the national wealth fund is not bottomless, and its emptying fast.

drop table Users

Speaking of failed offensives here is yet another one caught on high definition drone video for the military experts in thread to observe

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1742872554010825164

saabsaab

Good to see we are sending mine clearing equipment to Ukraine.

Sleepy

Surprised to see so many made it out of those vehicles after they'd been hit... looks like the cluster munitions crew failed to mop up the men pouring out. Pity.

CelticRambler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569067#Comment_121569067

Neither side has made any major progress? We keep hearing this, and have been hearing it for months (frequently accompanied by the phrase "failed/stalled counteroffensive") ... and yet that point refers only to the movement of the line of conflict on the ground.

Anyone who's wandered through the north of France will surely have seen the panels marking the position of the front line in WW1 and noticed how little it moved over the course of several years - but the war wasn't being fought and won there.

In 2023, Ukraine drove the Black Sea fleet out of Crimea, and have make the Black Sea sufficiently treacherous that the same Black Sea Fleet generally stays out of it. Similarly, they have made the skies over Donbas, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Crimea sufficiently dangerous that helicopters rarely visit the front line regions any more, and their jets are increasingly wary of taking to the air.

Those two achievements alone are "major progress" for Ukraine, and there is nothing comparable for the Russians to brag about.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569885#Comment_121569885

FFS just give Ukraine what they need to finish these rats off altogether.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569113#Comment_121569113

But they are press ganging people into service theres plenty of videos showing Ukrainian men being grabbed on the streets and taking away to be conscripted,

glen123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121569553#Comment_121569553

...and this somehow makes me less Ukrainian and less knowledgeable than you, for example, about what goes on in the country where, as I mentioned, all my family and friends and their kids still live? Unlike you, I don't watch and read Russian propaganda to know what exactly they are promoting there these days. Maybe you should switch to Ukrainian news instead too for a change?

Or are you ashamed to come across this? After all it's the creation of our "hero" and his besties.

Kvartal 95 making disgusting jokes about people of Skadovsk (Kherson), currently under occupation, during their New Years performance. One of the participants visited Crimea at least 3 times since its occupation (big no-no but ...what's another y....visit). Some MPs are now calling for them to volunteer to the frontlines after their wonderful performance (won't happen, of course). Poor sods even had to cancel their gig at Bukovel (our top ski resort)...and one would think what...ski resort..gigs...during the war??

https://eng.obozrevatel.com/section-entertainment/news-11-tv-channel-apologizes-for-the-displaced-woman-from-skadovsk-the-scandalous-episode-of-kvartal-95-will-be-cut-03-01-2024.html

Poor mayor of Skadovsk was so disgusted, he ended up quoting Petlura's "We are not so afraid of Moscow lice, we are afraid of Ukrainian nits."

Let's see how Zelenky's strong hand is going to pack them all up, drive them to Avdiivka and leave them all there as volunteers :)

drop table Users

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570170#Comment_121570170

Way to not read the article about press ganging foreigners in Russia and also go off on a tangent and to then make claims without any evidence

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570223#Comment_121570223

Tangent your grasp of thing seems very much limited

drop table Users

More reality with sources on foreigners in Russia

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1742904514926064100?s=20

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570536#Comment_121570536

Fast track citizenship..

Nothing new there the law was proposed pre Ukraine invasion

drop table Users

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121570567#Comment_121570567

And now signed by your leader for life, here is your chance to get that coveted Russian citizenship and show off your military expertise

Gatling

This isn't a great sign,Ive seen other reports from Ukrainian unit's saying that they ran out of mortars and 40mm grenades for their MGLs

https://twitter.com/Harri_Est/status/1742663195758834078?s=20

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568497#Comment_121568497

The U.S. may not but the E.U. certainly do. Not to the point where Russia collapses chaotically or uses weapons of mass destruction, but the majority of E.U. Member States want to see the Russian army routed from all Ukrainian territory.

You keep mentioning the artillery deliveries as though it is the only weapon that is being used or the only help that the E.U. can provide, when it is not. You speak about it as though it was a broken promise - the EU promised 1m shells within a year from March, 2023, they have delivered almost 500k and they still have some time before March to make it up. But in any event it is not because they are dragging their feet or unwilling to provide shells, the problem is that you can't just magic up a millions shells out of nowhere, nor can you give away your entire stocks that will be needed to train your own troops and to be used in the event that Russia attacks an E.U. Member State.

Your dismissive attitude towards 2,500 armored vehicles is striking. Likewise with the jets.

Are the U.S. and E.U. being cautious and conservative about assisting Ukraine? Absolutely yes. They don't want it to escalate into a full scale NATO v Russia war and they don't want to deplete their own stocks or run the risk that Russia will destroy or capture their most sophisticated equipment. But the E.U. countries at least would like to see nothing more than a Ukrainian victory as soon as possible. It's just that it isn't possible to win a war overnight.

As to what is the plan, well in many ways there is no plan. The US and EU didn't start this war. Their actions have been entirely reactive throughout. A more relevant question is what are the next steps for the US and EU, and the answer to that will hopefully be revealed in the next couple of weeks.

The U.S. is not going to cut all aid to Ukraine, but they are probably not going to give the 60bn that Biden would like them to give. The U.S. has a massive national debt and the Republicans are gaining ground in arguing that they shouldn't be giving out so much money in foreign aid (even though it is in their long term strategic interests that Russia not take over Ukraine and that the money is often reinvested in the US industry). The figure they eventually give will, IMO, be somewhere in the region of 20-40bn. I would hope that it will be towards the upper end of that range.

As for the E.U. Member States, well that's a more straightforward issue. They can't use the E.U. or N.A.T.O. to coordinate aid to Ukraine, so they are going to have to find a way to do so without involving Hungary. This will take longer as it requires the national parliaments to get there, but they will. So I wouldn't be pessimistic on that front.

As to how 2024 will play out, it is very hard to say. I suspect that the period between now and March will be very intense but if the Russians keep attacking as they are they will suffer huge casualties and deplete their weapons. After the election, it is unclear if Russia will engage in mass mobilisation or not. It is also not clear whether they can realistically mass mobilise and achieve any real effects, but you can be pretty sure that if they do so the EU and US won't be far behind in increasing support for them.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121568874#Comment_121568874

The logic of Ukraine not striking inside Russia in 2022 was that they didn't want to escalate and they didn't have the capacity given that they weren't allowed to use aided weapons to strike Russia proper. 2023 showed us that Ukraine can hit military targets in Russia, but it is a risky strategy if they target civilians as this could play badly amongst the countries providing aid to them.

The idea that Russia retaliates 100 fold isn't really accurate I'm afraid. Russia are intent on striking civilian targets across Ukraine regardless of what the Ukrainians do. They didn't decide on a whim to fire over 200 missiles in the last week - that was planned in advance. The fact that Ukrain struck Belogord is an excuse for them to claim that it is retaliation, but in reality it is not.

If Russia really had additional, non-nuclear and politically acceptable capacity to damage Ukraine, they would have done so by now. And the last year has shown that they can strike inside Russia without causing the Russians to take drastic measures.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571195#Comment_121571195

I presume you mean military targets only?

drop table Users

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571195#Comment_121571195

It turned out in end that it was Russian anti air that “struck Belgorod” and another example of a bomb being dropped on this town by … Russians themselves

Gatling

@johnnyskeleton You speak about it as though it was a broken promise - the EU promised 1m shells within a year from March, 2023, they have delivered almost 500k and they still have some time before March to make it up.

They already said that they failed and wouldn't be able to deliver on the promised as I said they would,they haven't delivered 500,000 either in September/October they were looking at 300,000 shells delivered in 8 months,we also know that even if they promised 20bn ,90% of that stays in America going to America jobs supporting American programmes not Ukrainian,for instance there was discussion of another patriot system and I believe 100+ missles for it ,but that and they won't be delivered before 2027 ,the EU wants Russia out of Ukraine but they more than likely want Russia sitting at the table Russia can provide big opportunities to the EU and they don't want a broken up and highly unstable groups on European borders ,

While artillery isn't the only weapon system in Ukraine,it's the the main tool for keeping large numbers of men and vehicles at bay ,if they are suffering shortages as coming from Ukrainian accounts that suggests that they are going to end in a precarious position in the next few months,

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121571243#Comment_121571243

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-countries-order-only-60000-shells-ukraine-via-new-scheme-sources-2023-12-06/

Together, those schemes have yielded some 480,000 munitions, according to the EU - less than half of the target, with about four months to go.