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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,391 ✭✭✭nigeldaniel


    Hundreds of big ones. No. Not that much. In fact, most US finance to Ukraine has been spread about to cover a lot more than weapons. Also, a fair bit of that money goes directly to US weapons industry as all that gear sent to Ukraine has to be paid for. Its not free or anything.

    Dan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,879 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    @johnnyskeleton

    But Europe will turn cold towards the US as an unreliable defence and trade partner and seek to improve relations with China. US global hegemony will be over, and this will be either a good thing or a bad thing depending on your world view. But, what is not a matter of debate is that the US economy would, in such circumstances shrink significantly. The US would also lack allies in its rivalry with China.

    On the China-EU relations point, at the moment just can't see Europe (EU, as a bloc) improving relations with China very much. I expect they will get worse.

    IMO this is kind of independent of support the US provides or withholds from Ukraine, and also independent of whatever bad stuff happens in future to the relations between the EU and the US (e.g. dawn of a new Trump era, God forbid).

    So you could have an unfortunate situation where the EU is getting more isolated and relations with both of these 2 "superpowers" are worsening, with China (and potentially the US) trying to undermine us, rob us, carve us up into bits in their influence games.

    China winks at at what Russia has been doing in Ukraine. They are Russia's main high technology supplier and trade partner now, have been a massive help to them in keeping their economy going under Western sanctions and enabling increases in weapons production.

    There is a bloc of Eastern and Baltic states facing a real threat from Russia that are not going to want to be China's friend after all this, esp. if reports/claims by the US are right and they are now poking a toe past the stated "red line" of military aid to Russia (could actually prove to be some more empty US words that sound good with nothing behind it I fear, bold new policy could be on hold because it is a crucial election year).

    Nor is Germany I think, who have sunk an awful lot into trying to help Ukraine (while China more and more openly backs Russia to destroy it) and whose industry and EU market is under threat from Chinese export dumping in Europe (mercantilist "dual circulation" policy of the Chinese govt.).

    Not to mention industrial espionage and cyberattacks that until recently at least seem to be written off as a kind of acceptable Western corporate cost of doing business with China.

    There's a few smaller and (IMO) short sighted + very greedy EU countries (incl. Ireland in that number!…we would sell our granny for some FDI) who are lured by and even encourage CCP investments and who could try and veto future trade sanctions against China at EU level, but I think there will now be a bloc in the EU that is opposed to any closer relationship with China for a long time.

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    So the veil was lifted just there on CNN via Marco Rubeo

    When asked about this €60bn being held up in House of reps .. he said we could have that on the floor tomorrow and pass it FOR ISRAEL, no prob. Then asked about the portion for Ukraine he said yip has no problem funding Ukraine but only if he has a deal on the southern border.

    So it appears Israel funding out of this 60bn is unconditional but Ukraine aid is conditional & tied to US southern border.

    I thought it was all conditional on the southern border



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    J D Vance ( REP ) now on CNN with same craic. Basically saying that in order to fund Israel who is a far closer ally and Taiwan and the US itself, they cant afford to fund Ukraine also

    Vance - Ukraine is not an ally and doesnt deserve being funded. Tomorrow the money for Israel only should be put tru congress, Israel is way more important to US than Ukraine is



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,703 ✭✭✭✭briany


    My memory must be failing me because I seem to remember that there was already a compromise bill put on the floor which had aid for Ukraine in it plus measures on the southern border, but Republicans voted against it because Trump ordered them to, not wanting Biden to get credit for solving something Trump wanted to wield as an election issue.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,002 ✭✭✭ToweringPerformance




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Vance on CNN - Ukraine is not an ally and doesnt deserve being funded. Tomorrow the money for Israel only should be put tru congress, Israel is way more important to US than Ukraine is



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    The new story so appears to be BRING the Israel aid ( separate from Ukraine, Taiwan aid which is conditional to Southern Border ) to the floor in congress tomorrow and get it passed as the Senate already passsed it. Biden / Dems will have to pass it in congress otherwise ( with current events ) it would not be a good look at all. So again it seems Trump has the Dems / Biden by the balls ..



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    Johnson already tried this before (bringing an Israel standalone) and the democrats didn't give in. Most realized it for what it was. A political move in order to make the other side look bad. Rather than a genuine attempt to get anything done. So I doubt he'll try that trick again.

    I think the most plausible scenario is one of the below:

    1. Johnson will bring a Ukraine bill to the floor that has one too many poison pills in it so that he knows the dems or the senate won't pass it quickly if at all. At which point he can throw his hands up and say he tried and blame Biden and the dems.
    2. Johnson will deflect and evade until he sends congress on another 2 week vacation end of next week. Then forevermore deflect, evade, dodge and stall.
    3. Johnson brings the current Senate passed bill to the floor and asks the Dems to protect him from a motion to vacate. Several democrats have openly said they'd protect him on the condition of a clean up or down vote on the Senate foreign aid bill.

    Take your pick of any of these. I've ordered them in the likeliness they are to happen in my mind.

    The other scenarios outside Johnson to get the bill to the floor:

    • The discharge petition: https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031209?CongressNum=118 . Is currently sitting at 195 signatures and climbing gradually. It needs 218. The republicans probably aren't going to sign it until they know it'll hit 218. So we know at least that there's less than 23 republicans willing to sign it currently. Some probably aren't signing it because they hate Israel. And some more are probably waiting to see if Johnson actually brings a bill to the floor himself.
    • Only 2 more moderate republicans quitting Congress early would give democrats the majority in the house and pass the speakership to Hakeem Jeffries. At which point the bill will hit the floor in short order. The moderate republicans are constantly making noise about MAGA republicans openly spouting russian propaganda and being chaotic. And they're getting fed up of it. So this could easily happen.

    Anyways. That's just what's in my head.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Ukraine must feel hugely abandoned now, particularly by the US via Trump and his political party called the GOP / Republicans.

    How hollow this phrase "we will be with you to the end" or similar is. Maddening soundbites because that is all they are, worthless .. and from the get go, when Russia invaded Ukraine in feb 2022, and when I heard leaders inc EU with there soundbite statements I knew they would be utter worthless, regardless of how well meaning, as they have proven now to be, esp from the USA via Trump and his political party called the GOP / Republicans. .

    ( also see my comments above re Marco Rubio and JD Vance saying Ukraine is not an ally and not worth supporting )

    We, especially in Europe will rue these days as we are at the forefront of whats to come.

    Post edited by aidanodr on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,703 ✭✭✭✭briany


    To say that Ukraine has been abandoned by the US is pretty cynical and without nuance because the most pivotal event which has stymied US aid to Ukraine hasn't really been trouble with Israel, rather it's been the Republican party retaking the US House of Representatives, making it considerably more difficult to pass bills which get aid to the country. It's also to ignore that US defence contractors are still working with Ukraine, that US ex-military personnel are still volunteering to fight in Ukraine and that US intelligence is still working with Ukraine.

    It would be more accurate to say that the Republican party of the United States are working against Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,022 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Putin laughing all the way at this, good ol divide and conquer. Just when whatever support there was for Israel was beginning to slip, Iran intervenes again and the USA/ UK rush to save Netanyahu's bacon. All focus on Israel and giving them protection. Meanwhile he can prosecute his imperial war of conquest much less hindered.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    @briany Adjusted my post to include some of what you said

    BUT the US political system is as it is because the citizens seem to leave it that way and do not push for adequate change? They are also polarised and divided. So surely the US population also to shoulder some blame in this? In a democracy they are the only people with the power to change surely?

    What it has proven is the US political system is broken completely and in need of a complete overhaul. Proof in the pudding of this is Trump has shown up its big flaws via gaming the current broken system successfully. To me anyway here we have Trump in Maralago being president without being in office with visits from House speaker over weekend to get orders from the boss. He is running the show via controlling the US House of Representatives which seems to be all that any party needs to do going forward ( one of the many broken things )?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,576 ✭✭✭Field east


    what if The US wants an ally in that area! Ie UKr.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,576 ✭✭✭Field east


    I thought that the whole bill was all in or nothing gets funded ? If they are suggesting that they fund Israel seperately well why then did Congress do that from the beginning ie circa nov-dec last?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    @Field east This is specifically from the MAGA wing of the GOP / Republicans via interviews on CNN ( SOTU show ) earlier. Both Republicans J.D. Vance ( who wrote article on Ukraine in todays NY Times ) & Marco Rubio said ( first time I heard this ) that they would bring the aid part for Israel to congress tomorrow, monday with no conditions attached and THEY would pass it, implying its up to the Dems to do same now if that were to happen.

    They both separated UKRAINE and Taiwan from Israel putting the border condition on both Ukraine and Taiwan but not on Israel. They also said pretty much Ukraine should be tossed to the wolves, Ukraine is not a US ally and in order of importance is bottom of pile.

    Both Rubio and Vance were on air on CNN doing there bosses bidding



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Have things advanced even with Rubio and Vances utterances on CNN earlier to the contrary ( Israel only, not Ukraine ). Ill believe it when I see it, another false dawn of many most likely

    Speaker Mike Johnson said the House will vote this week on aid for Israel in the wake of Iran’s attack, and he indicated Ukraine funds could be part of the package



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,087 ✭✭✭threeball


    Well you suspect wrong. It was a war they should never have been involved in but their disdain of communism and their need to keep the Soviets in check saw them enter the war. The same with Vietnam where the North Vietnamese became communists of convience as it was the opposite of what the US was. Ho chi min had no communist leanings before the war. He just leveraged it to gain support.

    I listed a number of other forays on there but you chose to ignore them as you knew there was no defence of those actions. American foreign policy has been an aabsolute shítshow. It is now again in Ukraine and it will be in the upcoming Israel Iran conflict. Netanyahu attacked the Iranian consulate knowing it would illicit a response so he could keep his war going and stay in power.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,087 ✭✭✭threeball


    They've delivered nothing of the sort. They delivered end of life, army surplus which would have cost millions if not billions to decommission and priced it out as if it was new and fools around the world, especially at home have fallen for these fantasy figures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,703 ✭✭✭✭briany


    How is a polarised and divided electorate suppose to push for changes to any system when it's their polarisation and division which prevents them from doing so?

    The first thing that needs an overhaul is that very division, and if that division could be solved, then their bicameral system would probably work just about as well as any other bicameral system in the world.

    The tail is wagging the dog for the Republican party because about 16 years ago they helped create a little movement called the Tea Party which was designed to wreck the progressive vision which Obama had, but it ended up snowballing into a monster much stronger than they could control. That Tea Party base was taken over by Trump not via the party apparatus as had been the case with previous candidates, but by social media and a brand he'd built up for 30 years prior to his 2016 run. That's why he's calling the shots from Mar a Lago.

    There is no short term solution to this problem which has been almost 20 years in the making, but there is a short term salve in the sense of enough Americans seeing sense in November to tip the balance back to the Democrats and let them get the aid flowing back to Ukraine.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    I could be wrong then based on this new info. I still seriously doubt the democrats will allow a standalone Israel aid bill through while a bill that includes Israel + Ukraine + Taiwan aid sits there. There's just too many democrats that hate Israel now and many more who won't allow Israel to go forward without Ukraine and Taiwan.

    That'd be my hope anyway. Israel don't need that money at all, let alone above and before Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 43 DoyleLoneganYouFollow


    I agree with you. The US has "earmarked" hundreds of billions for Ukraine. 70% of that never even got there. It went into the pockets of Raytheon and Northrop-Grumman shareholders. The US essentially sent them garbage.



  • Registered Users Posts: 43 DoyleLoneganYouFollow


    It could be that he examines all sides of an issue rather than just one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 43 DoyleLoneganYouFollow


    Gives me flashbacks to Tony Blair addressing the Afghans. His words "we won't abandon you again", in that smarmy voice of his.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,681 ✭✭✭Economics101




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,022 ✭✭✭✭Furze99




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/gop-house-intel-chair-says-he-expects-ukraine-aid-to-pass-this-week-208953925966

    Small clip there. He doesn't mention whether or not it's the senate bill. And I don't know if he's been talking to Mike Johnson since the whole Iran-Israel drone strike/embassy event.

    But some hope at least?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Yes the arms manufacturers are benefiting (of course they are when arms need to be produced) but to say that the US sent them "garbage" is pure revisionism.

    To pick just one example, HIMARs allowed the targeting of munition piles and bridges which greatly aided in the taking back of Kherson in 2022.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,368 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Apparently US 'garbage' was enough to stop the Russian invasion in its tracks eg anti tank weapons.

    What does that say about Russia military capabilities that garbage can do so much damage to it eg Bradleys, HIMARs etc

    Russian propaganda backfiring again.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭aidanodr




This discussion has been closed.
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