Russia - threadbanned users in OP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118213089#Comment_118213089

When did he say this?

Russia just before WW1 encompassed Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine in Europe, roughly speaking. Kaliningrad, in contrast, was German territory - Konigsberg. I doubt he'd want to let that go, though its existence is highly problematic, just as the existence of the Polish Corridor was problematic in the 30s.

When one ponders the boundary changes in central and eastern Europe, the sheer chaos of it all - the slaughter, forced relocations of millions of people; entire villages, towns and cities changing hands with mass forced movements of ethnicities; for me it has always highlighted the relatively mild nature of the Irish experience over the past 300 years in contrast.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214223#Comment_118214223

When did he say this?

I don't recall him ever saying it, but I've heard people talk when I've been in Russia. The expectation would be the return to the borders pre-WW2 (prior to the invasion by Germany), since many Russians see this area as being central to their core territories. So, Poland,, or the Baltic States wouldn't be part of it.

Oh, I imagine Russia would like to take all of these States, especially Finland and Poland, but time has moved on too much. Those countries have been accepted into the EU, and that's a line which would be quite dangerous to cross. However, the core territories, are still isolated and so, up for grabs.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214725#Comment_118214725

He gave a TV interview and press interviews which he said it ,

None of these sovereign states want to be Russian , Finland especially made that quite clear during WW2,

What would be the point of even trying to take several other countries by force ,we could end up with ww3 in Europe and if anything russia could end up losing territory if they actually tried because they might get so far before pushed back and then the EU or other states decide they want a buffer zone between us and them,I think it would be a grave mistake on his part to even suggest even trying ,

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214857#Comment_118214857

It's unlikely to happen. There's a rather clear line with regards to tackling Western Europe, and with the inclusion of Poland and others into the EU, that makes them untouchable. Putin can regain the other territories, without serious pushback from Europe/the West.

Russia doesn't want a war with the West. They're too vulnerable with their wide borders, and the Russian leadership knows this. They haven't the military to protect Russia itself while also dealing with NATO. I know that many posters here seem to believe that Russia is some kind of rabid beast.. but they're not suicidal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214857#Comment_118214857

He gave a TV interview and press interviews which he said it

Same question -- when and where -- who was the interviewer, what media org. was it for?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118215223#Comment_118215223

How do you explain the largest country in world within last 10 years annexing two areas in neighbouring Ukraine and two areas in neighbouring Georgia?

I'm truly wondering if posters bother to read previous posts.

Russia is a state run by mafia/kgb (same thing over there) combo for benefit of an oligarchic elite, while keeping 140 million people in poverty. Now that Covid killed over a million of these peasants they are getting restless, a good doze of nationalism and war would be a distraction that Putin needs, it worked well in Crimea before

And>? They have plenty of options to choose from, without needing to tackle Europe. Anyway, the nationalism/war has been going on before covid came along.

PokeHerKing

Vlads getting on in years, he might want to go out with a bang over the next decade, who knows.

I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed all rhetoric and no action but equally wouldn't be surprised if he invaded Ukraine proper.

Brussels Sprout

There's some serious amount of whataboutery and false equivalency in this thread. I would absolutely hate to live in the USA but I'd be 100 times happier to live there than in Putin's Russia.

Hasschu

For centuries Ukraine was known as "Little Russia" , Russia itself started in Kiev, Ukraine and migrated to Moscow. Russia has a strong military and a very strong world wide nuclear capability. It is well known that NATO has ringed the Russian border with hostile military installations. Both Putin and Lavrov have raised objections to US funded efforts to destabilise and make Ukraine anti Russian. Recently they have made it clear to the US that any further incursions into Ukraine will be met with overwhelming force. The US seem willing to start WW3 in Eastern Europe and Germany, Austria do not seem to recognise that WW3 in Eastern Europe is a very safe option for the USA. Italy and France seem to be aware of facts on the ground and communicate with Russia on a regular basis. I would not be surprised if Russia invades Ukraine in response to further US provocation. I have been in Russia and had dealings with them in Canada, They remind me of the Irish, mentally and physically tough caused by being under threat for centuries. Imagine the Irish with strong nuclear capability, would you play games with them?

Gatling

It's all Americas fault lol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118219186#Comment_118219186

That's the usual deflection.. but let's run with it. The US has been very active in world affairs since WW2. They went "all in" in their fight against communism, and stood against the Soviet Union, and later, Russia throughout that time. They've worked to isolate Russia, while playing the popular card as a peacemaker, but the military/diplomatic strategy of isolating Russia has continued. Of course, they're partly, responsible.

It is natural that comparisons would be drawn between the US and Russia, for all manner of reasons. It's just when the negatives associated with the US come out, that we hear this deflection, that it's all America's fault. Which I doubt anyone is suggesting, but the belief that they're not somewhat responsible, considering their contributions to world diplomacy, and active participation in a wide number of conflicts, is naive.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118219579#Comment_118219579

Which leads to a contradiction Russia is simultaneously great and not great often in same sentences, which I believe is subconscious admission that it’s the deepest shithole among a collection of shitholes

I doubt you've traveled much around the world if you think that. There's far worse places that Russia. It's a great nation, in terms of history, just as Britain/England is a great nation due to their history. However, in a modern sense, they've both fallen well behind their historical accomplishments. The Russian Empire was an incredibly power force in world affairs for centuries. That's why they were great.

As for the great and no great being contained within the same sentence, you'll find that with most nations. They all have their downsides, and positives. Some more so, than others.. but this comes back to my point about double standards. Take the US for example, look at their numbers of homeless, their numbers addicted to various drugs, their illiteracy problems, the issues with parts of the US being essentially like 3rd world nations in terms of infrastructure, institutionalized racial discrimination, etc... Both great and not so great at the same time.

Gatling

@klaz "Take the US for example, look at their numbers of homeless, their numbers addicted to various drugs, their illiteracy problems, the issues with parts of the US being essentially like 3rd world nations in terms of infrastructure, institutionalized racial discrimination, etc... Both great and not so great at the same time"

The same applies to larger parts of russsia , they tend to mirror themselves for most part ,they have a huge drug and alcohol addiction issue in Russia just as they have in America and vice versa when I comes to homelessness they both have in some case huge wealth gaps ,the same for military might

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220052#Comment_118220052

The life expectancy for Russian men is shockingly low: 68.2. That ranks them 118th in the world. In most western European countries it's hitting 80 and in the US it's 76.3 (41st). Once again, USA bad, Russia terrible - not equivalent.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220052#Comment_118220052

You're not countering what I said.... just reinforcing it. All nations, especially the major nations, are a combination of both the great and the bad. This is particularly true when you consider the difficulties that particular nations faced in settling, and dominating their respective territories. You seem to want to ignore all the particulars in history that contributed to how a nation develops, and just skip to the modern status.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220258#Comment_118220258

Who said they were equivalent?

Hasschu

The US has engaged in a propaganda campaign against Russia since 1945, for 76 years now. Prior to that Russia was the great ally who defeated the Germans. The Americans have now bought into their own propaganda, invincible and superior to Russia in every way. The fact that Russia and China are now allies which together are militarily superior to the US has not not yet entered into the consciousness of the American public. America actually pushed Russia into China's arms, one of the worlds greatest strategic blunders. You will see the US making friendly overtures to Russia as they try to undo the damage they have wrought on the Russo-American relationship. How Ukraine is handled will be a good indicator as to whether nuclear war is imminent or delayed. Taiwan was always Chinese except for periods where Japan occupied it. Mao defeated Chiang Kai Shek who retreated with his army from war on the Chinese mainland to the Chinese island of Taiwan in 1949. The Americans do not have a leg to stand on when they say Taiwan is not Chinese. It is highly unlikely that America will risk a nuclear war should China decide to retake Taiwan.

Sand

Irrational anti-Russian sentiment has a very long track record. All the way back in the 16th century, the new Russian state was being demonised by European commentators as alien, dangerous and bent on world conquest. Fast forward 5 centuries and the irrational hostility from "the west" towards Russia is still the same. It's no wonder that one of the Russian tsars said that Russia only had two allies - its army and its navy.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118222133#Comment_118222133

The notion that 'Taiwan was always part of China' is a Communist Party wheeze that simply isn't factual. It was only part of Chinese sovereignty from the Qing dynasty onwards - which in Chinese historical terms, is just a gust of wind. And during that dynasty (which was Manchu-led and not Han in any case) It was a backwater treated with ambivalence and was not Sinicised to any great extent. Even before the end of the Second World War, when speaking of the possible post-war settlement, Mao frequently spoke of Taiwan in the same breath as Korea (for important context, Korea had more or less always been a tributary state to Chinese empires, but not within the empire).

It was only when the KMT decamped to Taiwan at the end of the civil war that the CCP cottoned on to how important it was strategically, and the 'integral part of China since time immemorial' yarn really got going. It's really one of those things that get repeated so often by CCP organs that foreigners who know no better just start to repeat it.

Anyway, back on topic: Russia, big country, up to no good (probably)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118223872#Comment_118223872

Taiwan was part of "China" until the end of WW2, when the Allies denied them a variety of territories that the Japanese had occupied. The CCP has a claim to the island... however.... most nations have claims on territories held by others. It doesn't mean that they should have them. Taiwan has developed itself into an independent nation. Had the CCP taken Taiwan in the 40s/50s then there wouldn't be much of an issue... but they didn't. And considering the nature of Taiwans governance at that time, I doubt anyone here would have been too bothered had the CCP taken Taiwan. Too many nations have a stake in Taiwan remaining independent.

However, the world has simply moved on, where these kind of claims no longer have any real validity.... unless you can get away with it. As Russia is likely to get away with reclaiming many of the territories lost with the fall of the Soviet Union.

HerrKapitan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214857#Comment_118214857

Should be easy to post links in that case...

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118224157#Comment_118224157

The Qing ceded Taiwan to the Japanese after the 1st Sino-Japanese War. They can crow about it and "unequal treaties", but those were the cruel rules of war in the 19th century. You lose a war, you lose the territory and they signed it over - the Japanese made a place out of Taiwan despite the depredations of colonial rule (still treated much better than Korea).

With all the fuss over Hong Kong and Taiwan and the "unequal treaties", you don't hear the CCP kick up a stink about outer Manchuria beyond the Amur (Now the Russian Far East) - they know better than to reopen any wounds with Russia. Though, if they thought Russia was a pushover, they'd no doubt be at it and hard.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118224246#Comment_118224246

Oh, I completely agree. However, with Taiwan, the CCP have made such a big deal about it over 6 decades, that I doubt they'd let it go. Chinese culture would never allow such a thing. Its always going to be someone elses fault.

China, Russia, and whatever other country out there that claims land, and seeks to expand are opportunists. If the opportunity is there, they'll go for it. Taiwan is pretty much locked down now, due to China isolating themselves, and pissing off all their neighbors. Russia will likely grab a variety of nearby nation states, because nobody is really that interested. Ukraine is something different, but even then, I genuinely doubt anyone will step in to protect them. If it came to Poland/Finland, or other Baltic states, I suspect Russia wouldn't try anything because of the solid links between those countries and Europe. They missed their chance there.

Tiny nations like Ireland are paranoid by virtue of an inferiority complex that causes them to act out in a manner of “superiority”. This mostly bluff plays out mostly in the continental town hall.

Behomoth nations like Russia, China, USA are paranoid by virtue of a complex that causes them to act out in a manner of “competitiveness and paranoia” . Dangerous bluff on the world stage.

Plus ça change.

Gatling

It's now widely believed Russia is gearing up to mount a full invasion of Ukraine ,they already have stationed 100,000 troops on Ukraine's borders , with another 50,000 enroute to the region , Belarus has also stated that they wont just sit back if things escalate to conflict ,if things play out we could see troops from Russia Push right into Ukraine while Belarus opens another front from their border forcing Ukraine to fight on two fronts while being massively outnumbered and outgunned

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118253354#Comment_118253354

It would be an appalling war, and probably the bloodiest land war in Europe since WW2, worse than the Balkans one would fear.

While the Ukrainian army are outmatched, they are still no joke, and there are enough post-Soviet black market weapons in the country to arm Ukrainian nationalist militias out the wazoo (who will prove to be a determined bunch I predict). Town to town, street to street warfare. It doesn't bear thinking about the consequences of such a conflict in the EU's backyard.

I don't see how Putin could really think he could pull something like a two-front war of such a scale without destabilizing the homeland. Memories of young men secretly coming back in boxes by the thousand from Afghanistan are still fresh in the mind of the Russian consciousness. That war was really one of the factors that bled the Soviet Union white before its collapse. The old dog is a wiley one however, who knows how brassy his balls are.

AbusesToilets

For all his ills, I don't think Putin is eager to bring about the collapse of his regime. Russia would be taken apart economically by the west if they invade, in addition to whatever military pain is inflicted. To what end for the Russians?

Gatling

I don't think it's about reabsorbing Ukraine ,I beginning to think Putin wants everything on the coastline of the black sea , Ukraine has something like 13 ports on the black sea and another few in the azoz sea mauripol which russian forces tried multiple times to take by force only to be beaten back by heavy Ukrainian resistance ,they also still maintain troops in Moldova under the guise of peacekeeping which Putin has refused to remove despite multiple calls to from the Moldovan government .

Taking everything from the azoz to the Moldovan border could give the russia complete control of the black sea

Sand

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118253354#Comment_118253354

Widely believed by who? Every few months people are claiming WW3 is going to break out and it never does. I don't blame Ukrainians for mass manufacturing propaganda, but people need to be a little smarter than swallowing it wholesale. Russia has no benefit or gain from further invading Ukraine. It gained Crimea and its Black Sea naval base, and its gained a frozen conflict that it can warm up at any time to prevent Ukraine joining the EU or NATO. It's strategic objectives are already achieved, at significant costs. A total conquest of Ukraine isn't in its strategic interests (hostile population), gains it nothing it does not already have, and the risks/costs to the Russia would be far too high.

If anything, Putin's seizure of Crimea could be seen as a desperate and flawed response to the prospect of NATO forces advancing to within a few hundred kilometers of Moscow on the Ukrainian border. The miscalculation on the part of EU/NATO was that Russia wouldn't react to that prospect.

Richard Hillman

Vlad will probably give Belarus some Ukrainian land if they help conquer Ukraine. Unfortunately for Belarus, the only land on their border is the Chernobyl exclusion zone.

Saying that, it's in everyone's best interest that Chernobyl is secured, Lukashenko will be demanding some payments from the EU to maintain it.

Lukashenko has already copped onto what Turkey were doing by weaponizing migrants. He wants the same deal Turkey got to hold them back.

Ultimately I think Vlad wants 3 things. The warm weather ports. The reunite most of the Soviet Union for this legacy. And to have his gas pipelines flowing into Europe without any hassle.

The Gas pipelines is what he has over Europe. He'll turn them on and off at this own will. He knows we are killing ourselves over Green Issues and that we will need him to supply our gas.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214857#Comment_118214857

The USSR gave up that land. The Russians invaded Crimea because it’s a Russian enclave.

any conflict here and Europe will freeze this winter. I’ve just got another increase in my electricity bill. It’s up about 30% now.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118257627#Comment_118257627

I don’t think they will invade but that economic threat isn’t that great anymore. Russia has outlets to sell outside the west. China continues to grow.

anyway what would actually bring peace is a European Russian alliance kicking out the US.