Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725023#Comment_118725023

While we are at it all Irish troops out of Ukraine. Right now Putin is the one in Ukraine so it seems a bit difficult to withdraw NATO troops. Indeed if NATO was there Putin would not be.

Curious will you have the same opinion of Finland and Sweden? Both of them have been ordered by Russia to not enter NATO. Which countries should Putin be in command of which alliances they can apply to join?

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118723876#Comment_118723876

Any country that gets a threat from Putin si getting it because he has plans to attack them and do a Ukraine. NATO is a a self defence alliance. All of them should immediately start sending troops and planes, otherwise they will be picked off one by one later.

You would think Europe would remember the consequences of trying appeasment of madmen bent on reconstituting imagined former glories.

gandalf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725023#Comment_118725023

TBH that may seem like a reasonable position to us but in reality what organisation a sovereign country joins is their own business and no-one else's. Russia should not have a veto over what organisation that Ukraine joins and they shouldn't have say over what one Russia is part of. Once they don't impede on each others sovereignty there is not a problem.

However if Ukraine survives this with an independent Government you can be guaranteed they will push to join NATO. Russia was supposed to respect their sovereignty after they gave up Nuclear Weapons instead they pilled over their border and then threatens the use of same weapons against any one who would aid them.

I think the aim for the world now is to get the dangerous regime out of power in Russia, denazify Russia and demilitarised them up to ensure they no longer have nukes.

shillyshilly

this is going towards a Russian nuke being launched.... Putin is getting backed into a nothing to lose corner...

Only way out I see is:

a) he gets his way

b) he has a heart attack by a 10th floor window / suicide by 3 shots to the back of the head etc...

where's @MFPM @BurgerFace @BluePlanet been?

weisses

Going over all the different videos posted on the various platforms in the last week ..... The Russians lost an awfull lot of hardware and the personell that comes with it

briany

It's great to see the support Ukraine is getting in terms both material and spiritual, but I am a bit worried that Putin's going to come out any day now and announce that, in his estimation, NATO are waging a proxy war against Russia and that war will become a direct war if NATO does not cease and desist. He has already threatened those who would seek to intervene, but did not name anyone specifically at that time.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118724997#Comment_118724997

I presume it's a statement by the MOD which is being relayed by that twitter feed

As for releasing that kind of info to the public, boosting morale would play a large part

gandalf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725074#Comment_118725074

I put money on it being a "stroke" myself. Classic politburo way of dealing with the "dear leader".

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118724919#Comment_118724919

Indeed. Swords into ploughshares is a wonderful sentiment until fascism is beating at your door and your country is being extinguished.

I'm fairly sure none of the Ukrainian men that travelled from Ireland back home thought or were minded to by personality be wielding AKs even a short few weeks ago. What choice do they have? Watch their country be steamrollered from afar?

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725086#Comment_118725086

I really hope it is more than just morale boosting though. They need to inflict a reversal on the Russians somewhere and fast.

realdanbreen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118724909#Comment_118724909

I already spoke with a guy there. Once the call is finished don't hang up and it will/ should tie up the line.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118724997#Comment_118724997

All part of the media strategy, truth and disinformation in equal measures. I believe Russia have about 95% of their forces deployed so as good a time as any to be thinking about it.

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725083#Comment_118725083

I hope it he does that NATO ignores his threat. He would only make that threat if NATO's aid to Ukraine was truly wrecking his plans.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725018#Comment_118725018

Theatre of war, it means where the conflict is taking place. Counterattacks are critical, not just from a strategic perspective, but also for morale.

Dohnjoe

Some parts of Ukraine already looking like Grozny

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725023#Comment_118725023

Yep. And face can be saved here. Agree to some NATO stuff way down the line, but not anytime soon. Which would suit NATO too. Same with the gesture - and nice that it is, that's all it was - of EU membership.

Let's peek behind the current and very understandable* we love Ukraine! Twitterisms for the moment. Ukraine is an economic basketcase and the second most corrupt nation in Europe with a grumbling civil war in her eastern provinces. A country with more baggage than Dublin airport on Christmas Eve. It isn't within an asses roar of the requirements for entry into the EU. Now there was a very welcome policy shift on a groundswell of Ukrainian support that kicked out the last Putin lite oligarch, but it has years to go. As I said earlier in the thread, horrific though this invasion continues to be, IMHO when the dust has settled and the tragic dead are buried IMHO it will turn out to be one of the 'best' things to happen to Ukraine and for Ukrainians. Money will flood in to rebuild and the beady eye will be on them for any corruption shenanigans.

I do think the country's borders need redrawing. The nation itself is barely a century old as it is and was drawn up as a loose province of the Soviet Union. The border was somewhat of an afterthought and some parts are a lot less Ukrainian than others. Partition is always a crap solution, but in this case it may well be the only one. Let the East go to Russia. Crimea too actually, more for realistic reasons as Russia is dug in there. The rest a free Ukraine looking westward.

*that I even need to qualify that...

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725105#Comment_118725105

They could probably commit a bit more in terms of boots, but not much more. Russia has an incredible amount of real estate to defend and a lot of bordering countries have scores to settle with ol' Puts, and scores that were generated in Moscow. Georgia immediately comes to mind, and there are a few other likely lads you can throw into the mix as well.

Drumpot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118724923#Comment_118724923

As Wibbs said, if you look at the thread , when people try to expand out from “Putin is bad, we have to save Ukraine” (which is fine to be the general narrative), people are accused of trying to deflect or somehow imply it’s ok what Putin is doing.

I personally came in here as green as most, frothing at the mouth about Putin. But I’ve not just watched the media , I’ve watched links posted here and from friends that show people who know far much more then me, about why we are where we are. Most didn’t engage on it.

I think some posters were saying NATO and the west played a role in getting here and they were attacked. some also suggested there is propaganda on both sides , which there is, but it was taken that they were saying the pictures from Ukraine are not real )which wasn’t what they were saying).

People are reacting very aggressive if anybody says something that they think hints at “Putin isn’t entirely to blame” even if that’s not actually what’s being said.

I was chatting with my wife about it yesterday, asking why people might be so defensive. I explained what I thought and she made a good point. Firstly , not all people on these threads are balanced , objective individuals. And secondly a small piece of text. Can easily be misinterpreted and considered hostile. This is why I’ve generally always tried to write longish posts to give nuance to my stance on a topic.

But on these forums people have second attention spans , they see something , even one sentence in a long post and they attack that. I do it myself to be fair, but I am aware of that defect.

Id actually write more but I’m out and about and have probably bored some to sleep at this stage.

TLDR: basically what Wibbs said.

This is it

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725101#Comment_118725101

It won't, that's not how it works.

This is a public number, it's not being used by the embassy to call Putin... Any call of any importance will use encrypted phones, not a landline provided by EIR.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118723964#Comment_118723964

If I were a betting man, this is how I think it will play out.

Russian army will complete their strategic objectives within a week or so - Kyiv, Odessa will be taken and Russia will control the Eastern half of Ukraine more or less.

Russia will announce a ceasefire and state that they have no intention of invading the western half of Ukraine. Guerrilla warfare will continue in the occupied areas. Morale amongst populace will continue to decline as water/food/power impacts are felt. Especially in the large urban areas.

Russia will oust the current government and announce upcoming 'democratic elections'. In the meantime they will install an interim government with some Russian stooge as president. I am hoping Zelensky gets out and becomes a president in exile. Otherwise he will be killed or imprisoned.

Russia will immediately organise referendums/plebiscites in the disputed territories and possibly other Russian dominated regions in the east of Ukraine. These votes will of course be rigged to show 95%+ willingness to become part of Russian federation.

The Russians will restore power, water, comms and bring in food supplies in order to persuade urban citizens that the worst is over.

Russia will agree with the west and Ukraine that they can never join NATO before they agree to withdraw military. They will also insist on rules around gas pipelines, tariffs to guarantee supplies going east-west.

Democratic elections will take place but it will also be rigged in favour of pro Russian members of parliament. Possibly a new constitution to guarantee things like NATO membership, future nuclear weapons and cultural Russian protections (e.g. language).

The North Crimean canal will be re-opened to water from the Dnieper with a guarantee that the flow will be maintained or another invasion will occur.

I have no idea how they will deal with Transnistria.

I could see the Russian military withdrawing with a matter of months but Ukranian cities will be a hellish and oppressive place to live in until that happens. Many will die in the meantime and the big question is how Ukrainians will be able to undo the damage done by Putin.

Putin's propaganda machine will be in overdrive at home to make above look like peacekeeping/liberation/victory etc etc. That said, I think his days are numbered now. He completely misread the response.

Thoughts?

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725070#Comment_118725070

Putin has threatened both Sweden and Finland, who'd be more than able to resist an initial attack. As I've mentioned Article 42 of Lisbon is about mutual aid and if one of those offering aid happened to be a NATO member he'd have a huge problem.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118724065#Comment_118724065

You are thoroughly deluded.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725078#Comment_118725078

The Russians also have a lot of hardware that they can afford to lose and life has always been a bit cheaper in Russia than the West.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725025#Comment_118725025

This war is a Putin problem, not a problem of the West trying to understand the mysterious unknowable soul of the Russian nation.

I agree, but in order to fix things the West has to understand the guys across the table from them. Otherwise war goes on.

is_that_so

...

Bayonet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725078#Comment_118725078

Much of it abandoned. Russians trying to outdo Biden in abandoning military equipment. I've never seen anything like this. Tank after tank, even AD systems worth $20m a piece. Either it's chronic fuel shortages or the young kids Putin has sent in decided to high tail it back home.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725083#Comment_118725083

In a way that would be great if he said that, because it would be an open admission on his part that Russia are struggling to subdue Ukraine.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725095#Comment_118725095

And hopefully let him lie in his own sh1t for 12 hours like his idols.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118725138#Comment_118725138

Putin is likely the most studied and pored over individual since the end of the cold war.

In filing cabinets in foreign ministeries across the world there's probably millions of words trying to devine his psychological profile, his disposition, his priorities etc. That's for 20 years. We know enough.

Bayonet

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499320660476182529?s=20&t=5qjK-e-g4nO6DC5z3U3BDA