Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

ACitizenErased

Phishnet wrote: »

At least seat belts were fully tested before roll out!

What a terrible comparison.

paw patrol

agoodpunt wrote: »

Selective data, ages, underlying conds?

LOLz

the same argument of only the elderly and very ill being at risk from covid - didn't work to argue against application of harsh restrictions.
yet somehow it is a fine measure to use to defend vaccines

cant have it both ways.

ACitizenErased

Phishnet wrote: »

Sorry to burst your bubble but here is the fact sheet on the FDA.gov website relating to the Pfizer vaccination for Covid , all vaccines have a similar wording.

FACT SHEET FOR HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS ADMINISTERING VACCINE (VACCINATION PROVIDERS)
EMERGENCY USE AUTHORIZATION (EUA) OF
THE PFIZER-BIONTECH COVID-19 VACCINE TO PREVENT CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19)
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to permit the emergency use of the unapproved product, Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, for active immunization to prevent COVID-19 in individuals 12 years of age and older.

You're posting the wording of the approval for a previously unapproved product which is now approved.

Anyone with an immune disorder (MANY people in a population) will not respond as well to the vaccines.

Older people will not respond as effectively.

Anyone taking corticosteroids (again, a huge number of people) will not respond as well to vaccines as these drugs suppress the immune response.

Anyone taking chemotherapy will not respond as well to vaccines.

Conclusion: avoid the fearmongering from people who show you the number of people who've died after being fully vaccinated.

ACitizenErased

Phishnet wrote: »

Can you post the updated one please?

You literally just posted it? That's the approval for the Pfizer vaccine, which was (shock) unapproved, before it was approved. That's how approval works.

Phishnet

Phishnet wrote: »

BUT WAIT A MINUTE, MORE PEOPLE WHO WERE FULLY VACCINATED AGAINST THE VIRUS DIED LAST WEEK IN THE UK WITH THE DELTA VARIANT THAN DOES WHO WERE UNVACCINATED!

This sort of antivaccine scaremongering from the likes of you and Holohan really should be banned on boards.ie.

Of course more vaccinated people died than people who were unvaccinated. That's because more people have been vaccinated than are unvaccinated in the UK.

Deliberately trying to undermine the vaccine campaign is anti-social behaviour and is a threat to the stability of the country.

0lddog

Phishnet wrote: »

But hang on a minute!
The figures from the UK of people who died with the Delta variant are as follows:

117 total deaths.

44 unvaccinated

23 single dose

50 fully vaccinated

....

Hang on a minute yourself !

Does anyone believe https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/united-kingdom-falls ? ( random website returned by search engine )

If it can be believed then it appears that the figure of 117 deaths ( per week ) is running at the same level as the 2018 average number of deaths per week due to falling in UK.

Please, when can we all get over this and get back to life ?

0lddog

eskimohunt wrote: »

Anyone with an immune disorder (MANY people in a population) will not respond as well to the vaccines.....

you might want to amend that

brickster69

Phishnet wrote: »

But hang on a minute!



The figures from the UK of people who died with the Delta variant are as follows:


117 total deaths.

44 unvaccinated

23 single dose

50 fully vaccinated

All these deaths occurred in people over 50 years of age.


BUT WAIT A MINUTE, MORE PEOPLE WHO WERE FULLY VACCINATED AGAINST THE VIRUS DIED LAST WEEK IN THE UK WITH THE DELTA VARIANT THAN DOES WHO WERE UNVACCINATED!

You missed a bit

98.5 % of the positive cases who were fully vaccinated and over 50 survived.

JRant

Bsharp wrote: »

"Thus, the precision of pandemic modelling lies somewhere between weather prediction (good) and economic forecasting (poor)". We're basing policy decisions on the extremity result of this; the worst case prediction. The modellers themselves know it's not accurate.

From looking at what they are trying to model I would say it's far closer to economic forecasting (poor).

"In the IEMAG model, the infectious group is further divided into six subgroups depending on the path of the infection. Thus, there are nine coupled equations which must be solved together on a computer. The interactions between groups depend on about a dozen factors known as parameters, for example, the incubation period, rate of transmission, fraction of cases that self-quarantine and so on."

So we have 9 subsets of differential equations that need converge for a solution to be found. Those 9 subsets are then made up of at least 12 parameters, the majority of which are made up or as they say 'use a probabilistic value" for each.

All in all, I do admire teams trying to carry out this type of work. It's an incredibly difficult thing to do with any degree of accuracy, which quite clearly they haven't managed to date.

It's funny but nobody puts any real value into economic models because the degrees of freedom used in them is so complicated that they are more or less useless. Why they think they can model an entire population with a similar degree of complexity with any sort of accuracy shows either blind optimism or an unhealthy amount of hubris.

0lddog

brickster69 wrote: »

You missed a bit

98.5 % of the positive cases who were fully vaccinated and over 50 survived.

Not only that but the 117 are down as having died with COVID and not down as having died of COVID



The figure of 117 persons is insignificant in the context of the UK population.

ceadaoin.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You're posting the wording of the approval for a previously unapproved product which is now approved.

None of the vaccines are approved yet. They are authorized for emergency use, not approved.

ACitizenErased

ceadaoin. wrote: »

None of the vaccines are approved yet. They are authorized for emergency use, not approved.

You're getting mixed up with the USA. EMA doesn't do emergency approvals, the FDA does. All EU vaccines are fully approved.

Sierra Oscar

How do we feel about restrictions beyond July, like weddings due to go to 100 from August? The Government haven't really given any certainty in the last couple of weeks or so if they intend on relaxing those restrictions further.

Whither you like it or not, Ireland will be back on Level 5+ lockdown from October 2021 until spring 2022.

Sierra Oscar

Johns nephew wrote: »

Whither you like it or not, Ireland will be back on Level 5+ lockdown from October 2021 until spring 2022.

Why?

kwestfan08

gozunda wrote: »

Well no not quite. The ECDC report details those most at risk include people who have not been vaccinated but also those who have only received the first dose of a two-dose vaccination
course and are less well protected against infection with the Delta variant*. It remains we have a substantial proportion of individuals who have as if yet have only received one dose.

*And that is simply a statement from the ECDC who also state that the lifting of non pharmaceutical interventions would lead to a further rise is infections.

I presume you do know that deaths from covid are not the sole metric which are relevant here yes?

No I understand completely. As you say those with one shot of vaccine are those who are MOST at risk. But what exactly is that risk? If I have one dose of vaccine what are the chances I contract covid? And further then what are the chances that Covid kills me. 1,000/1? 5,000/1? 10,000/1?

While the risk is certainly higher if you only have one shot, the actual real world chances of anything remotely bad happening to you are very low and it seems we’re keep everything indoors closed on the fear that something MIGHT happen.

JRant

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

How do we feel about restrictions beyond July, like weddings due to go to 100 from August? The Government haven't really given any certainty in the last couple of weeks or so if they intend on relaxing those restrictions further.

At best we'll be stuck at our current level of restrictions for July and August. I wouldn't be planning anything that involved further relaxation of restrictions for the next few months.

We may even take a step or two backwards and start to severely limit weddings, funerals, events etc and possibly outdoor dining by mid August.

Once case numbers increase they'll start increasing restrictions regardless of whether hospitalisations increase here or if we have solid data from the UK and EU to say otherwise.

gozunda

kwestfan08 wrote: »

No I understand completely. As you say those with one shot of vaccine are those who are MOST at risk. But what exactly is that risk? If I have one dose of vaccine what are the chances I contract covid? And further then what are the chances that Covid kills me. 1,000/1? 5,000/1? 10,000/1?

While the risk is certainly higher if you only have one shot, the actual real world chances of anything remotely bad happening to you are very low and it seems we’re keep everything indoors closed on the fear that something MIGHT happen.

Take a read of the full report. More detail there. Can't link atm but you'll find it further back . But no its not linked to "anything remotely bad happening to you" and "keeping indoors" because "something might happen" or wtte

emo72

Modeling, or predicting the future, or predicting the weather, or horoscopes.

They presented 4 outcomes? They should have presented 10 outcomes. One of them may have been close.

landofthetree

JRant wrote: »

At best we'll be stuck at our current level of restrictions for July and August. I wouldn't be planning anything that involved further relaxation of restrictions for the next few months.

We may even take a step or two backwards and start to severely limit weddings, funerals, events etc and possibly outdoor dining by mid August.

Once case numbers increase they'll start increasing restrictions regardless of whether hospitalisations increase here or if we have solid data from the UK and EU to say otherwise.

We have had 10,000+ cases in the last 4 weeks.

Only 42 are in hospital after all those cases.

When you have all your over 40s vaccinated you stop 90% of hospitalizations.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1110045/coronavirus-covid-19-hospitalizations-number-age-group-switzerland/

Shelga

Why are the latest case numbers splashed up as a headline on RTÉ news? Plus “14 IN ICU”- it’s like they’re willing that number to go up.

Other countries are moving on. Still headline news all day, every day for us, because of NPHET scaremongering. So sick of this sh*t.

lawred2

Shelga wrote: »

Why are the latest case numbers splashed up as a headline on RTÉ news? Plus “14 IN ICU”- it’s like they’re willing that number to go up.

Other countries are moving on. Still headline news all day, every day for us, because of NPHET scaremongering. So sick of this sh*t.

I think covid has been good for RTE's bottom line. That's a big problem.

ACitizenErased

In case there was still any doubt over whether the vaccines work...
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1411376694133506048?s=20

Penfailed

CruelSummer wrote: »

Ok fair enough. Just after double checking - all pubs are open in NI for indoor and outdoor & can remain open now until 3am.

You should triple check. All pubs in the north can't remain open now until 3am.

normanoffside

The 2nd trial concert is neatly worse than Iveagh Gardens. Now there's testing but still pods and distancing.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1411374790481428487

JRant

landofthetree wrote: »

We have had 10,000+ cases in the last 4 weeks.

Only 42 are in hospital after all those cases.

When you have all your over 40s vaccinated you stop 90% of hospitalizations.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1110045/coronavirus-covid-19-hospitalizations-number-age-group-switzerland/

You're preaching to the choir.

NPHET are acting like one vaccine gives no protection and we need to have every man, woman, and child vaccinated before we can come out of this.

CruelSummer

Penfailed wrote: »

You should triple check. All pubs in the north can't remain open now until 3am.

Thanks that was already pointed out to me. I posted up the links from rte & bbc - it is Oct it comes in re late hours.
Pubs & indoor dining is open right now in the north - no vaccine passport, just open to all.

hynesie08

CruelSummer wrote: »

Thanks that was already pointed out to me. I posted up the links from rte & bbc - it is Oct it comes in re late hours.
Pubs & indoor dining is open right now in the north - no vaccine passport, just open to all.

Still won't be 3am serving.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In case there was still any doubt over whether the vaccines work...
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1411376694133506048?s=20

This very time last year when deaths were low we were told it was because lockdowns and social distancing work, remember people on this very fourm this time last year saying "we are beating this virus"