Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

lawred2

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In case there was still any doubt over whether the vaccines work...
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1411376694133506048?s=20

But there's a hurricane coming

ErnieG

emo72 wrote: »

Modeling, or predicting the future, or predicting the weather, or horoscopes.

They presented 4 outcomes? They should have presented 10 outcomes. One of them may have been close.

It is outrageous that the government, this week, decided to change its strategy on restrictions from (let's call it) "the old plan" to "the new plan" using model data only for "the old plan".

NPHET recommended moving to the new plan, presenting model data for the old plan as their justification.

The government needed to tell them "we're open to your recommendation, but you haven't adequately justified it yet. So that we can make an informed decision, you must give us modelling for the new plan."

It should have been obvious to government that there were two major issues

• weighing up competing options requires full information about each option
• NPHET's approach, on the face of it, was contrived to avoid putting their credibility on the line. Once their recommendation was adopted, none of their modelling could ever be tested by subsequent real-world events. This was a red flag - why make multi-billion euro decisions affecting hundreds of thousands of livelihoods based on models, if the authors of those models are contriving that the models not be tested in the real world?

I am basing my thoughts here on the rte article:
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0702/1232678-nphet-models-fourth-wave-scenarios/

Which includes the comments:
"All the numbers presented are modelled based on the assumption there will be a "step change" in social mixing on 5 July"

"Prof Nolan ...told Prime Time that "the whole point of running the scenarios is to prevent them, by making the right decisions.""

In the middle of the article, Prof Nolan does make a claim that he modelled outcomes for the "new plan", and waffles about them. "it’s modest," he said. "Frankly, it is anywhere between Alpha-only and the optimistic scenario."

So for the old plan the government was presented with 4 outcomes .

For the new plan, they were provided with no data. When asked about this in a presser, Prof Nolan wriggled his way past the question without putting anything really testable on the table.

The government is making some of the biggest decisions in the history of the state using badly-structured decision-making. Snap decisions. It's madness.

CruelSummer

hynesie08 wrote: »

Still won't be 3am serving.

No but punters will be allow stay on the premises drinking until 3am as I already stated also.

hynesie08

CruelSummer wrote: »

No but punters will be allow stay on the premises drinking until 3am as I already stated also.

So, exactly where we were for 20 years pre covid....

finalfurlong

normanoffside wrote: »

The 2nd trial concert is neatly worse than Iveagh Gardens. Now there's testing but still pods and distancing.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1411374790481428487

I dont know about anyone else but the amount of steel sheep like pen s is a bad look.If it is a trial is it really a long term or medium term veiw to have this level of segregation.One of the great things about festivals were meeting random fans from far and near-this photo is depressing from that veiwpoint.The trialled concerts in London and Liverpool were essentially scaled back numbers wise but I am certain I did not see steel enclosures

bucketybuck

If anything sums up how utterly useless this government is, it is those "test" events. They are embarrassing, the sort of thing you would associate with some third world tinpot dictatorship.

A test that doesn't reflect real world conditions isn't worth a **** and a child could tell you that. And that is quite apart from the fact that they are actually redundant at this stage, when there have been far bigger events already hosted across Europe for which there is any amount of data gathered.

These are the people making decisions for this country, god help us all.

lawred2

bucketybuck wrote: »

If anything sums up how utterly useless this government is, it is those "test" events. They are embarrassing, the sort of thing you would associate with some third world tinpot dictatorship.

A test that doesn't reflect real world conditions isn't worth a **** and a child could tell you that. And that is quite apart from the fact that they are actually redundant at this stage, when there have been far bigger events already hosted across Europe for which there is any amount of data gathered.

These are the people making decisions for this country, god help us all.

It's the usual "doing something to be seen to be doing something" bolloxology that we're great at. These sheep pen trials aren't worth a ha'penny f*ck. The last one didn't even allow people have a few drinks. There's nothing real world about them.

bloopy

finalfurlong wrote: »

I dont know about anyone else but the amount of steel sheep like pen s is a bad look.If it is a trial is it really a long term or medium term veiw to have this level of segregation.One of the great things about festivals were meeting random fans from far and near-this photo is depressing from that veiwpoint.The trialled concerts in London and Liverpool were essentially scaled back numbers wise but I am certain I did not see steel enclosures

A concert like the one showed in that report cannot become the norm. It is just too expensive. Increase cost for the pens with less attendance. The only purpose it can serve is as a feel good news report.
Nothing more

normanoffside

finalfurlong wrote: »

I dont know about anyone else but the amount of steel sheep like pen s is a bad look

yes, look how they are all penned in

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1411357496242065420

AlekSmart

normanoffside wrote: »

The 2nd trial concert is neatly worse than Iveagh Gardens. Now there's testing but still pods and distancing.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1411374790481428487

FFS,we really need a shot of enjoyment at the moment,the already melancohlic Irish phsyche will disappear into a Black Hole if somebody does'nt get a grip soon.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFHC6t13hi0

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

yes, look how they are all penned in

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1411357496242065420

Embarrassing.

Shepherded into their pens like a drove of pigs.

CruelSummer

hynesie08 wrote: »

So, exactly where we were for 20 years pre covid....

We as in Ireland? Where we’re heading for a vaccine passport and indoor dining / drinking closed and no exit strategy from NPHET?
In fact the precedent they’ve set in the last week is that there will be NO exit strategy, even those fully vaccinated over 70’s are considered still at risk despite the vaccinations being incredibly effective.
Or we as in NI where their CMO & public health England have currently both indoor dining/drinking & an exit strategy.

Stadium in Rome in the TV - capacity 18,000 tonight. How many were in Croker today.

AlekSmart

eskimohunt wrote: »

Embarrassing.

Shepherded into their pens like a drove of pigs.

Yet,this New Normality is supposed to be something to rejoice about.....I would be interested in looking inside the head of whomever came up with this idea,as it must be a bleak space indeed ?

eskimohunt

eskimohunt wrote: »

Embarrassing.

Shepherded into their pens like a drove of pigs.

Meanwhile, this was an actual test event in Liverpool a few weeks ago..... sTill though, Tony knows best :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_8O34msX5Q

prunudo

I really despair for the future of this country. Bad enough that this is being called a test event, even worse that some of the interviewees think this is a return to normality. At least Gavin James was saying he couldn't wait till people can actually mingle again.

AlekSmart

AlekSmart wrote: »

Yet,this New Normality is supposed to be something to rejoice about.....I would be interested in looking inside the head of whomever came up with this idea,as it must be a bleak space indeed ?

Who could forget this gem? It sickens my sh1t to hear that Luke O'Neill so lionised. He's enjoyed every bit of this pandemic and his wealth and profile has significantly increased

https://www.rte.ie/news/claire-byrne-live/2021/0210/1196251-could-zorbs-be-a-safe-way-to-enjoy-a-live-gig/

prunudo

prunudo wrote: »

I really despair for the future of this country. Bad enough that this is being called a test event, even worse that some of the interviewees think this is a return to normality. At least Gavin James was saying he couldn't wait till people can actually mingle again.

The problem is when you treat a country like a controlled experiment.

You cannot control all variables, there are too many. So, when NPHET propose restrictions - they don't consider the consequences of those restrictions. NPHET are obsessing too much with numbers, variables, modelling, predictions etc., and are completely ignoring real world data.

As a result, we are the laughing stock in Europe because we are assumed to be controlled like guinea pigs, when in fact we are no different to other Europeans who actually seem to be managing just fine with hospitality re-opened.

I just wish the Government opened their eyes and saw what everyone else can see.

prunudo

prunudo wrote: »

I really despair for the future of this country. Bad enough that this is being called a test event, even worse that some of the interviewees think this is a return to normality. At least Gavin James was saying he couldn't wait till people can actually mingle again.

When we didn't rip the country apart after the banks bailout, it was always going to be easy to convince us to do this. Most gullible bunch of pathetic wasters that ever was. I wouldn't believe any Irish politician if they told me it was Saturday, but some follow their words religiously :rolleyes:

AlekSmart

Deleted User wrote: »

Meanwhile, this was an actual test event in Liverpool a few weeks ago..... sTill though, Tony knows best :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_8O34msX5Q

Start small and move on carefully.....but quality will always come to the top... https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=3241900085839774

hynesie08

Deleted User wrote: »

Meanwhile, this was an actual test event in Liverpool a few weeks ago..... sTill though, Tony knows best :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_8O34msX5Q

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/frank-turner-lighthouse-family-among-18818128.amp


And before that they had this...... Timing is different but the actual events are the same.....

JRant

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Meanwhile, this was an actual test event in Liverpool a few weeks ago..... sTill though, Tony knows best :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_8O34msX5Q

The most worrying thing about that video is the fact so many mouth breathers felt the need to ring the police to inform on those they thought were breaking social distancing rules. That's the real problem.

Klonker

ErnieG wrote: »

It is outrageous that the government, this week, decided to change its strategy on restrictions from (let's call it) "the old plan" to "the new plan" using model data only for "the old plan".

NPHET recommended moving to the new plan, presenting model data for the old plan as their justification.

The government needed to tell them "we're open to your recommendation, but you haven't adequately justified it yet. So that we can make an informed decision, you must give us modelling for the new plan."

It should have been obvious to government that there were two major issues

• weighing up competing options requires full information about each option
• NPHET's approach, on the face of it, was contrived to avoid putting their credibility on the line. Once their recommendation was adopted, none of their modelling could ever be tested by subsequent real-world events. This was a red flag - why make multi-billion euro decisions affecting hundreds of thousands of livelihoods based on models, if the authors of those models are contriving that the models not be tested in the real world?

I am basing my thoughts here on the rte article:
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0702/1232678-nphet-models-fourth-wave-scenarios/

Which includes the comments:
"All the numbers presented are modelled based on the assumption there will be a "step change" in social mixing on 5 July"

"Prof Nolan ...told Prime Time that "the whole point of running the scenarios is to prevent them, by making the right decisions.""

In the middle of the article, Prof Nolan does make a claim that he modelled outcomes for the "new plan", and waffles about them. "it’s modest," he said. "Frankly, it is anywhere between Alpha-only and the optimistic scenario."

So for the old plan the government was presented with 4 outcomes .

For the new plan, they were provided with no data. When asked about this in a presser, Prof Nolan wriggled his way past the question without putting anything really testable on the table.

The government is making some of the biggest decisions in the history of the state using badly-structured decision-making. Snap decisions. It's madness.

How these models haven't come under more scrutiny from the media is a disgrace. As you say no model for if we don't open indoor hospitality.

How people can still claim NPHET don't have an agenda is crazy. They only put forward the modelling scenarios that they think will support the decision they wanted on the first place. Please god the government will realise by 19th July how insane the projections were when the UK will still be going steady at that stage.

Klonker

Klonker wrote: »

How these models haven't come under more scrutiny from the media is a disgrace. As you say no model for if we don't open indoor hospitality.

How people can still claim NPHET don't have an agenda is crazy. They only put forward the modelling scenarios that they think will support the decision they wanted on the first place. Please god the government will realise by 19th July how insane the projections were when the UK will still be going steady at that stage.

Not a chance the penny will ever drop for them. There was hope this week when Donnelly appeared to sideline NPHET, but i would doubt anything will come of it. He'll go back tail between legs apologising to Tony eventually

ACitizenErased

You actually couldn't pay me enough to go to a 'penned in' concert. I wouldn't bother wasting my time.

Penfailed

I'm two days...and about thirty pages behind on this thread! Playing catch up.

DellyBelly wrote: »

Listening to Claire Byrne at the moment and I have to say the Delta virus sounds frightening...you have to be worried what is going to happen over here. Next couple of weeks will be telling to see if this new variant rips through the country...I really thought we had turned a corner...depressing stuff

Correct me if I'm wrong...are you the same poster that lives 7km from the beach and really missed going for walks on the beach...but wouldn't do so until the 5km restriction was lifted?

_Kaiser_

JRant wrote: »

The most worrying thing about that video is the fact so many mouth breathers felt the need to ring the police to inform on those they thought were breaking social distancing rules. That's the real problem.

The other thing there was some of the attendees of that event saying that they felt anxious being around so many people (why did you go then?), and that they felt as though people should be wearing masks

That to me is indicative of the level of fear and damage done to society in the last year - and even more worrying considering the demographic involved were/are always at little to no risk from Covid anyway.

CalamariFritti

0lddog wrote: »

Hang on a minute yourself !

Does anyone believe https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/united-kingdom-falls ? ( random website returned by search engine )

If it can be believed then it appears that the figure of 117 deaths ( per week ) is running at the same level as the 2018 average number of deaths per week due to falling in UK.

Please, when can we all get over this and get back to life ?

Its not per week. Its in total since the 1st of February when they started monitoring delta.

No Im not kiddin.

JRant

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

The other thing there was some of the attendees of that event saying that they felt anxious being around so many people (why did you go then?), and that they felt as though people should be wearing masks

That to me is indicative of the level of fear and damage done to society in the last year - and even more worrying considering the demographic involved were/are always at little to no risk from Covid anyway.

There's an element of playing to camera in some of those responses. Us, I'd imagine a few told the reporters that they didn't give a shïtê but RTE are never going to show those types of responses.

normanoffside

Deleted User wrote: »

Meanwhile, this was an actual test event in Liverpool a few weeks ago..... sTill though, Tony knows best :rolleyes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_8O34msX5Q

That was on the 30th April- over 2 months ago.

hynesie08

normanoffside wrote: »

That was on the 30th April- over 3 months ago.

8 and a bit weeks is not over 3 months by any recognized measure.....