Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

darconio

shocksy wrote: »

The answer is yes. It would also help the serious drinking problem this country has.

I know the prohibitionism was very successful indeed
I actually started drinking more since the lockdown, and by the way, is not shutting down the pubs that you fight the so called "drinking culture" :rolleyes: , we have plenty off-licence and supermarket selling alcohol.
That reminds me when pubs were closing on good friday: it was actually a good excuse to gather in somebody's gaff and get sh1tfaced (and I would normally know my limit if I go to the pub)

OwenM

seamus wrote: »

As of yesterday, just over 51% of the total population have received a first dose, and 37% are fully vaccinated.

In terms of case management, that falls far below the threshold required to keep a lid on things. The most vulnerable cohorts are (mostly) complete, but that will only dampen the hospital impact from a surge in cases, it won't prevent ICUs and beds filling up again.

If we're going to relax restrictions with the aim of not tightening them again, then our approach needs to be more measured, and not hit-and-hope that "maybe it'll work out better than last year".

Why haven't beds and ICU's filled up in the UK, their caseload has increased massively in the last few weeks and Delta has been responsible for >80% of those for over three weeks.

Working class heroes

seamus wrote: »

As of yesterday, just over 51% of the total population have received a first dose, and 37% are fully vaccinated.

In terms of case management, that falls far below the threshold required to keep a lid on things. The most vulnerable cohorts are (mostly) complete, but that will only dampen the hospital impact from a surge in cases, it won't prevent ICUs and beds filling up again.

If we're going to relax restrictions with the aim of not tightening them again, then our approach needs to be more measured, and not hit-and-hope that "maybe it'll work out better than last year".

Can you define this threshold please?

bucketybuck

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Or perhaps - and let's be honest - who don't particularly care/aren't worried anyway, and are only doing it so they're not fined rather than anything else.

For anyone in their 40s/50s or younger and generally healthy that's probably a reasonable position at this stage given vaccination progress and better information generally on who's at risk or not.

It is kinda funny to read in fairness.

People judging and critiquing mask wearers among a population that couldn't give a **** about them and are mostly only doing so under duress.

Next up we will be assessing the shovel wielding prowess of prisoners on a chain gang...

bucketybuck

Working class heroes wrote: »

Can you define this threshold please?

Good luck with that.

seamus

OwenM wrote: »

Why haven't beds and ICU's filled up in the UK, their caseload has increased massively in the last few weeks and Delta has been responsible for >80% of those for over three weeks.

They are filling up.
More slowly, but they are. The doubling rate for hospitalisations in the UK has increased. It was 30 days last week, now it's about 25 days.

Shelga

seamus wrote: »

As of yesterday, just over 51% of the total population have received a first dose, and 37% are fully vaccinated.

In terms of case management, that falls far below the threshold required to keep a lid on things. The most vulnerable cohorts are (mostly) complete, but that will only dampen the hospital impact from a surge in cases, it won't prevent ICUs and beds filling up again.

If we're going to relax restrictions with the aim of not tightening them again, then our approach needs to be more measured, and not hit-and-hope that "maybe it'll work out better than last year".

Do you accept that we are not in the same position as last summer, when there was not a glimmer of a vaccine?

Fandymo

Fandymo wrote: »

Yeah, definitely not anti drinking haha. The mask slipped literally 1 post later.

I dont think the "drinking problem" in this country is near as bad as made out, however expressing an opinion that there may be a drinking problem in the country is not the same as being anti drinking

seamus

Working class heroes wrote: »

Can you define this threshold please?

It's somewhere around 55% fully vaccinated, based on what we've seen in Israel. There will be some regional variations due to the types of vaccines used, and cultural differences in how people intermix. Israel is as close as one can get to an "ideal conditions" all-population test.

So when we have about 2.7m people fully vaccinated we can seriously plan around lifting all restrictions. Until then the only option really is to limit higher-risk stuff to vaccinated/tested people, or keep them closed.

JRant

seamus wrote: »

As of yesterday, just over 51% of the total population have received a first dose, and 37% are fully vaccinated.

In terms of case management, that falls far below the threshold required to keep a lid on things. The most vulnerable cohorts are (mostly) complete, but that will only dampen the hospital impact from a surge in cases, it won't prevent ICUs and beds filling up again.

If we're going to relax restrictions with the aim of not tightening them again, then our approach needs to be more measured, and not hit-and-hope that "maybe it'll work out better than last year".

Why use the percentage of total population as a metric?
The HSE have been using percentage of adult population for a while now.
For anyone under 18 COVID is a complete nonentity so why consider them when talking about vaccination levels we need to reach before opening up?

FileNotFound

seamus wrote: »

It's somewhere around 55% fully vaccinated, based on what we've seen in Israel. There will be some regional variations due to the types of vaccines used, and cultural differences in how people intermix. Israel is as close as one can get to an "ideal conditions" all-population test.

So when we have about 2.7m people fully vaccinated we can seriously plan around lifting all restrictions. Until then the only option really is to limit higher-risk stuff to vaccinated/tested people, or keep them closed.

While I cannot comment on the actual figure - I do think the Gov are in a position to say we can open when we reach X% full vaccination and X% are first dose.

I actually do not care about the actual restrictions, its the lack of a plan that kills me.

Given the UK have been looking pretty safe and have very high case numbers but very low hospital cases. I think they were on 80+% first and 55+% second dose in the adult population when it started circulating heavily. They heavily dosed with AZ which seems to be inferior to others.

We are pretty much at 70% first and 50% full using a mix.

Maybe we could set the UK figure above and then start top live again?

Furze99

seamus wrote: »

It's somewhere around 55% fully vaccinated, based on what we've seen in Israel. There will be some regional variations due to the types of vaccines used, and cultural differences in how people intermix. Israel is as close as one can get to an "ideal conditions" all-population test..

When this Covid broke in March 2020, the general consensus from health authorities was that anyone over 60 was more at risk.

We are well into the vaccination scheme now with large numbers in their 40s and 50s fully vaccinated. And yet, people like my wife & myself in our 60s, are not.

Someone/ some people in the HSE made a big mistake in deciding to go down the AZ route for the c.400,000 citizens in this 'at risk' 60s age group. I don't hear anyone being held to account either in HSE or the government.

Remember Varadkar and his advice 'take this AZ vaccine or go to the back of the queue' Well we followed his dictate and we still find ourselves at the back of the queue.........

Working class heroes

seamus wrote: »

It's somewhere around 55% fully vaccinated, based on what we've seen in Israel. There will be some regional variations due to the types of vaccines used, and cultural differences in how people intermix. Israel is as close as one can get to an "ideal conditions" all-population test.

So when we have about 2.7m people fully vaccinated we can seriously plan around lifting all restrictions. Until then the only option really is to limit higher-risk stuff to vaccinated/tested people, or keep them closed.

Thanks.
Would you consider schools in this category?

RobitTV

Interesting developments from Singapore...

Singapore will STOP counting Covid-19 cases as officials say it's time to 'live with this like the flu and get on with our lives'

- Ministers in Singapore have laid out their vision for a future living with Covid
- They say virus will become 'like flu' as vaccines and treatments reduce severity
- Daily case tally could be dropped as routine testing eases with only serious cases tracked, though border checks and vaccine passports will remain

The Singaporean ministers said: 'We can't eradicate Covid.

'But we can turn the pandemic into something much less threatening, like influenza, hand, foot and mouth disease, or chickenpox, and get on with our lives.

Responder XY

Furze99 wrote: »

When this Covid broke in March 2020, the general consensus from health authorities was that anyone over 60 was more at risk.

We are well into the vaccination scheme now with large numbers in their 40s and 50s fully vaccinated. And yet, people like my wife & myself in our 60s, are not.

Someone/ some people in the HSE made a big mistake in deciding to go down the AZ route for the c.400,000 citizens in this 'at risk' 60s age group. I don't hear anyone being held to account either in HSE or the government.

Remember Varadkar and his advice 'take this AZ vaccine or go to the back of the queue' Well we followed his dictate and we still find ourselves at the back of the queue.........

That wasn't a mistake - it was good common sense at the time to focus resources available (AZ) on the people who could benefit (over 60s)

Delta impacting the effectiveness of one does vrs. two was a curveball that wasn't known at that time. Nobody had a crystal ball.

seamus

JRant wrote: »

Why use the percentage of total population as a metric?
The HSE have been using percentage of adult population for a while now.
For anyone under 18 COVID is a complete nonentity so why consider them when talking about vaccination levels we need to reach before opening up?

There are many metrics to consider in vaccine rollout, and all are valid for specific uses.

Tracking the % of vaccines administered per eligible adult tells you how far away you are from administering vaccines to everyone who can possibly get it. This is perfectly reasonable. If your job is to paint a wall in a house, you'd never say the job is only half done because the other side of the plasterboard hasn't been painted.

But from an immunity level, the entire population figure is important to measure the level of protection in the population. Under-16s aren't exempt from vaccination they can't get covid. They can still get and spread covid and therefore in terms of measuring how far along we are in whole-population protection, the total population vaccination percentage, is important.

Populations freely intermix. Therefore for herd immunity it is the % protected in the entire population that's important.

Now, I personally feel that the absolute need to achieve herd immunity across the whole population is a bit overplayed. That in many respects it is fair to consider the under-12 and over-12 populations to have a somewhat natural disconnect. The former having a very limited "bubble" of contacts and being less susceptible to spreading covid.

But that's an assumption. We can't base our decision on it unless the data demonstrates it.

OwenM

seamus wrote: »

They are filling up.
More slowly, but they are. The doubling rate for hospitalisations in the UK has increased. It was 30 days last week, now it's about 25 days.

They are doing 330K doses a day (200k 2nd vaccine doses a day), with ~50% of the eligible population fully vaccinated already. The relationship between cases and hospitalisation is very different.

We have been achieving 50k doses a day last week (several times better then the UK), if the Romanian vaccines materialise this could increase dramatically - and here's why - the Romanian government are selling them because they are going out of date - that puts a gun to Paul Reid's head as soon as they hit the airport runway, dumping vaccines because they are out of date is not a good look.

DarkJager21

RobitTV wrote: »

Interesting developments from Singapore...

Meanwhile in Ireland we are at the cutting edge of fighting Covid by destroying lives & businesses so nobody ever dies from Covid again, because Paddy knows better than everybody else in the whole world :rolleyes:

RobitTV

Stephen Donnelly has expressed his 'disappointment' and 'discomfort' with the way in which members of the public have been critical of NPHET online

Stephen Donnelly is 100% correct. Ireland must follow Iran and Belarus and begin shutting down social media and online forums. Any criticism of NPHET is totally unacceptable. It should be a criminal offence.

This country is like some sort of parody of itself.

Chivito550

Had a lovely ribeye steak, delicious hand cut chunky chips, the nicest cheesecake I've ever had, and some glorious pints in a restaurant indoors yesterday, while it was lashing outdoors. Don't feel in the least bit guilty about it.

F*ck them!

Furze99

Responder XY wrote: »

That wasn't a mistake - it was good common sense at the time to focus resources available (AZ) on the people who could benefit (over 60s)

Delta impacting the effectiveness of one does vrs. two was a curveball that wasn't known at that time. Nobody had a crystal ball.

I disagree and the proof is in the pudding. There were known supply problems with AZ, it was known and planned there would be a 3 month gap between doses. That's what the booklet given at the time states clearly. The 'Indian' variant and the possibility of other variants were known.

A child with basic maths could have calculated/ predicted that it was unlikely that the 60s cohort would be fully vaccinated before the mid/ end of August. And even that dependent on supplies of AZ.

If the HSE had followed the logic of their programme for over 70s and applied mRNA type vaccines to those in their 60s and 50s, these would all practically be done by now and the pubs/ restaurants etc., could all open. That's the factual situation. It's been a complete cock up. And even after using these AZ vaccines, they're already saying they'll have to be 'boosted' with mRNA vaccines later. This was very poor planning and undermines public confidence in vaccines.

hynesie08

RobitTV wrote: »

Stephen Donnelly is 100% correct. Ireland must follow Iran and Belarus has begin shutting down social media and online forums. Any criticism of NPHET is totally unacceptable. It should be a criminal offence.

Or people could tone down the weird obsession with tony holohan **** that gets mentioned way too much on here and twitter.

seamus

FileNotFound wrote: »

Maybe we could set the UK figure above and then start top live again?

We absolutely cannot follow the UK's lead on anything. If it wasn't for the political fallout, they would have gone with the "let the bodies pile high" approach.

Even today, Johnson is going to say "we have to learn to live with covid", which is his way of saying, "Many of you will die, but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make".

Furze99 wrote: »

We are well into the vaccination scheme now with large numbers in their 40s and 50s fully vaccinated. And yet, people like my wife & myself in our 60s, are not.

If hindsight was 20:20. I do appreciate how frustrating it is for those who got AZ, but at the time we were very much just trying to maximise what was available to us. If it was possible to predict how things would look 8 weeks later, then different choices would have been made.

Working class heroes wrote: »

Would you consider schools in this category?

No. Schools appear to be somewhere in the middle, risk-wise, and the main risk points are easily mitigated.

FileNotFound

Whoever voted for that Donnelly chap should hang their heads in shame.

Responder XY

Furze99 wrote: »

I disagree and the proof is in the pudding. There were known supply problems with AZ, it was known and planned there would be a 3 month gap between doses. That's what the booklet given at the time states clearly. The 'Indian' variant and the possibility of other variants were known.

A child with basic maths could have calculated/ predicted that it was unlikely that the 60s cohort would be fully vaccinated before the mid/ end of August. And even that dependent on supplies of AZ.

If the HSE had followed the logic of their programme for over 70s and applied mRNA type vaccines to those in their 60s and 50s, these would all practically be done by now and the pubs/ restaurants etc., could all open. That's the factual situation.

Not at all - one dose was known to be almost as effective as two does at that point in time. Fully vaccinated didn't really matter. In fact there was a push to skip second doses entirely at that point to get the entire population one dose as that was thought likely to give maximum societal protection and limit spread.

Obviously things changed with Delta coming along and with hindsight we might have done something different. Does not change the fact that it was the correct decision at the time.

Hurrache

normanoffside wrote: »

I have always said ISAG had some kind of motive beyond Covid. This tweet and article give us an idea of what their plans are.

Meanwhile they are still getting trotted out over here on every media source as ‘experts’

https://twitter.com/skepticalzebra/status/1411415649994395653?s=21

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1457950/lockdown-labour-scientists-plot-bit-more-restrictions

It's the Express, they make stories up.

Timmy O Toole

Another sports event lost as Ireland can't guarantee a crowd for the PDC darts in LATE OCTOBER

Furze99

seamus wrote: »

If hindsight was 20:20. I do appreciate how frustrating it is for those who got AZ, but at the time we were very much just trying to maximise what was available to us. If it was possible to predict how things would look 8 weeks later, then different choices would have been made.

It's not just frustrating Seamus. I am genuinely angry that the state has knowingly exposed us both to extra risk from Covid and obliged us to take more vaccines than necessary. There are a lot of people very pissed off about it.

ACitizenErased

seamus wrote: »

We absolutely cannot follow the UK's lead on anything. If it wasn't for the political fallout, they would have gone with the "let the bodies pile high" approach.

Even today, Johnson is going to say "we have to learn to live with covid", which is his way of saying, "Many of you will die, but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make".

If hindsight was 20:20. I do appreciate how frustrating it is for those who got AZ, but at the time we were very much just trying to maximise what was available to us. If it was possible to predict how things would look 8 weeks later, then different choices would have been made.

No. Schools appear to be somewhere in the middle, risk-wise, and the main risk points are easily mitigated.

Your posts just lost all credibility with this comment. What an insane opinion.

RobitTV

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Another sports event lost as Ireland can't guarantee a crowd for the PDC darts in LATE OCTOBER

You need to keep holding firm. Brighter days are ahead.

:rolleyes: