Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

FileNotFound

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

I suppose the question is then, when or where does it end for social distancing and mask wearing?

Great question, vaccine efficacy means we will continue to have covid deaths for years to come but they will be in line or marginally higher than flu related for example.

Realistically I would have thought that once the adult populous is vaccinated we should progress to normality.

At risk defended best we can with a vaccine - any who get it and die after a shot is out of our control.
Low to no risk for lower ages means we can vaccinate but will have little impact beyond case numbers with no negative outcomes.
Variants galore may come but thats life, flu does it all the time.

I guess we have gotten to the point that one could argue we have become carried away with this and forgotten the aims of lockdowns, masks and social distancing.

Honestly I imagine that this will be dragged out to next year, some people seem to enjoy life being on hold, whether its WFH, PUP payments, wallowing in misery and feel any risk is too much risk.

I think I read somewhere that we are now at greater risk of dying if we drive 50km a day than of covid...

I'd say the masks and distancing are definitely here for the year unless the UK show really good results. Our lad be afraid of making the call.

MOH

MOH wrote: »

There you go again perpetuating the same lie. No, it didn't.

I can't be bother looking up the exact dates yet again, but:
Indoor hospitality opened somewhere around June 28th, so go back to a week before that.
At that point the positive rate over the previous 7 days was 0.6%.
(last column in the linked stats)

A month later, that had increased to a whopping .... 0.3%.
Oh wait, the percentage of positive tests actually halved during the first month hospitality was open.

It spiked to 1.8% over the August bank holiday then started steadily decreasing again. Which is an odd thing to see if we're in a runaway surge caused by hospitality.

It made it back down to 1.2%, then schools opened.
A month after schools opened it was 2.9% and kept on going up until we went back into lockdown.

So:
indoor hospitality - rate continues on downward trend, briefly spikes for bank holiday, resumes downward trend
schools - rate doubles in three weeks, keeps going until just before level 5 introduced.

There's only one of those two that "led directly to the surge in cases". And it wasn't indoor dining.

You are assuming positive rate is a measure of virus in circulation. It is only so when testing criteria is constant. It changed massively in that time period. What was constant over that entire time period was the rate of increase.

Furze99

Responder XY wrote: »

Well for what it's worth, I'll take whatever vaccine I'm offered when the time comes. So will everyone my age that I know. (been trying in vain to get into a pharmacy - looks like I have to wait)

I still think you are letting frustrations with what has happened with Delta cloud your judgement on what was the right decision at the time and your thinking is not rational. AZ was available to over 60s - with one dose it prevented severe illness against all known strains of Covid. AZ could not be used on lower age groups due to emerging evidence of harm to them being possible. Therefore the entirely right decision to use AZ on those it was safe to use it on was made and reserve other vaccines for those whom it may not have been safe to use AZ on (again further evidence on the saftey has emerged in the meantime - but you can only act on what you know at the time).

As it turned out, the arithmetic behind that decision was completely sound. I was sceptical myself at the time, but it made best use of scarce vaccine resources. If Pfizer/Modera was used for over 60s, AZ does would have gone to waste and the whole program would be further delayed, which would not leave us in a better position today.

You're in La La Land - the thrust of the vaccination programme was to firstly vaccinate healthcare workers, then those most at risk with other underlying conditions and the general population above 60 years of age. They have largely addressed all to date except those 60-69. Even just now on RTE we have an admission that there are insufficient AZ vaccine supplies to complete this.

You won't be getting an AZ vaccine because there aren't even enough to target the population at risk. And by the time there is, no one else will be taking it because there's no point in using a vaccine that will have to be supplemented by the mRNA type.

As things stand, there are people in their 40s fully vaccinated whilst the population at risk are stuck in an AZ limbo.

Multipass

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

I suppose the question is then, when or where does it end for social distancing and mask wearing?

It’ll fizzle out slowly - it’s already starting to. I regularly see people paying for petrol without them, it’ll get chipped away on those kind of quick stops, and eventually spread to bigger shops. There’s an element of herd mentality, once one or two start the trend, others will get braver. I don’t know anyone who actually wants to wear the things anymore.

Hurrache

You mean you actually knew people who wanted to wear them?

They're a necessity, not a desire.

MOH

Deleted User wrote: »

You are assuming positive rate is a measure of virus in circulation. It is only so when testing criteria is constant. It changed massively in that time period. What was constant over that entire time period was the rate of increase.

I'm not assuming anything, but it's the only figure in that data that's remotely valid for comparison

(BTW it's also one that has been used by NPHET on numerous occasions precisely as a comparative measure as to how the virus is progressing)

I'm not sure exactly how the testing criteria "changed massively" during that period? As far as I know, we were still only ever testing based on people with potential symptoms having a referral from a GP, and close contacts of confirmed cases.

I don't know what you mean by "the rate of increase" - of what?
Because if you mean just 7-day cases, that makes no sense.
You can't just base whether things are getting better or worse on that, when the number of tests is varying dramatically.

Week 1: Test 1000 people. Get 500 cases.
Week 2: Test 10000 people. Get 600 cases. Oh no! Things are getting worse!
Week 3: test 100 people. Get 100 cases. Phew! Everything is much better!

Leftwaffe

Restaurant representative on Drivetime just now saying it’s gonna be a paper based vaccine pass for indoor dining. 1.8m letters or emails proposed to go out in the next 7 to 10 days. App would take months.

Surely that is pointless? There will people scamming the system left right and centre. I’m not vaccinated but no way my publican is gonna stop me from going indoors. Fake email away ya go.

Royale with Cheese

Leftwaffe wrote: »

Restaurant representative on Drivetime just now saying it’s gonna be a paper based vaccine pass for indoor dining. 1.8m letters or emails proposed to go out in the next 7 to 10 days. App would take months.

Surely that is pointless? There will people scamming the system left right and centre. I’m not vaccinated but no way my publican is gonna stop me from going indoors. Fake email away ya go.

Shhh, don't tell Tony that.

Responder XY

Furze99 wrote: »

You're in La La Land - the thrust of the vaccination programme was to firstly vaccinate healthcare workers, then those most at risk with other underlying conditions and the general population above 60 years of age. They have largely addressed all to date except those 60-69. Even just now on RTE we have an admission that there are insufficient AZ vaccine supplies to complete this.

You won't be getting an AZ vaccine because there aren't even enough to target the population at risk. And by the time there is, no one else will be taking it because there's no point in using a vaccine that will have to be supplemented by the mRNA type.

As things stand, there are people in their 40s fully vaccinated whilst the population at risk are stuck in an AZ limbo.

I'm not in LaLa land. I get it you are angry. I might be too in your boat. But somethings things happen which are outside of anyones control. I think you are letting the personal impact of the arrival of Delta cloud your judgement.

That circumstances have changed doesn't make the decision that was taken back when it was taken wrong. it was the right decision at the time.

To address your other point, there is every point in taking second dose of AZ - it's perfectly effective and won't have to be suplemented by a mRNA vaccine. (not to say boosters won't be required in time - but there's no way to say right now if either AZ or mRNA or both will need that.)

MOR316

Hurrache wrote: »

You mean you actually knew people who wanted to wear them?

They're a necessity, not a desire.

Why do your posts have such an angry tone to them?
If it were in person, I'd feel as if you were trying to deck someone

FileNotFound

Furze99 wrote: »

You're in La La Land - the thrust of the vaccination programme was to firstly vaccinate healthcare workers, then those most at risk with other underlying conditions and the general population above 60 years of age. They have largely addressed all to date except those 60-69. Even just now on RTE we have an admission that there are insufficient AZ vaccine supplies to complete this.

You won't be getting an AZ vaccine because there aren't even enough to target the population at risk. And by the time there is, no one else will be taking it because there's no point in using a vaccine that will have to be supplemented by the mRNA type.

As things stand, there are people in their 40s fully vaccinated whilst the population at risk are stuck in an AZ limbo.

When i hear of the 60-69 group i wonder why they don't just give them all a J&J jab and be done with it.

Would be quick effective and if we are giving it to no risk 18 year olds surely we have enough to get this done fast.

SnuggyBear

Hurrache wrote: »

You mean you actually knew people who wanted to wear them?

They're a necessity, not a desire.

Have you not read the mask thread?

TomTomTim

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Have you not read the mask thread?

Or seen the millions of social media accounts, where people wear masks in their avatars with great pride.

FileNotFound

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Have you not read the mask thread?

I would try not to confuse wanting to do the best thing with wanting to wear a mask

I assume many supported mask wearing as the science supported it.

Hurrache

MOR316 wrote: »

Why do your posts have such an angry tone to them?
If it were in person, I'd feel as if you were trying to deck someone

Disdain, not to be confused with anger.

Multipass

FileNotFound wrote: »

When i hear of the 60-69 group i wonder why they don't just give them all a J&J jab and be done with it.

Would be quick effective and if we are giving it to no risk 18 year olds surely we have enough to get this done fast.

I don’t understand why they don’t pause the 30s, and give the over 60s an mRNA vaccine. They are multiples more at risk, they deserve the most effective vaccine.

TomTomTim

FileNotFound wrote: »

I would try not to confuse wanting to do the best thing with wanting to wear a mask

I assume many supported mask wearing as the science supported it.

The same science that initially told us not to wear masks?

KrustyUCC

Multipass wrote: »

I don’t understand why they don’t pause the 30s, and give the over 60s an mRNA vaccine. They are multiples more at risk, they deserve the most effective vaccine.

We don't mix vaccines here at the moment

FileNotFound

Multipass wrote: »

I don’t understand why they don’t pause the 30s, and give the over 60s an mRNA vaccine. They are multiples more at risk, they deserve the most effective vaccine.

Can't argue with that at all - was just thinking Adenovirus followed by the same type might work like a second AZ if nothing else.

Either way they should be done before this mass rollout they are doing to try and save some votes. Once again no science based approach.

Martin and cueball are an utter disgrace at the moment

FileNotFound

KrustyUCC wrote: »

We don't mix vaccines here at the moment

True if the science says it works we work on fear.

Studies in Manchester showing Adenovirus followed by mRNA may be even more effective than either alone.

Multipass

KrustyUCC wrote: »

We don't mix vaccines here at the moment

Time to start then. Or give them 2 doses. It’s daft to be leaving that age group behind whilst vaccinating young people with the most minute risk of death.

Responder XY

Multipass wrote: »

I don’t understand why they don’t pause the 30s, and give the over 60s an mRNA vaccine. They are multiples more at risk, they deserve the most effective vaccine.

Because there's no need - they can finish with AZ within the next two weeks, they wouldn't be able to do much quicker no matter what vaccine they used and it would be slower if they considered a full dose of mRNA was required as effectively that would be to restart the clock and consider AZ wasted.

Also - not my generation, but my parents, parents in law and as far as I know all my aunts and uncles in their 60s got their second dose done now (some got last Friday) - not exactly a good sampling methodology, but good indication that they are well on the way to getting that one done.

jakiah

TomTomTim wrote: »

The same science that initially told us not to wear masks?

Science changes depending on available evidence, its called the scientific method. You should look it up seeing as you obviously left school before it was taught.

growleaves

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Can ye stop with the obsessive use of the word cohorts.

There's a certain cohort who keep using the word "cohort".

MOH

growleaves wrote: »

There's a certain cohort who keep using the word "cohort".

Recohorsion

Timmy O Toole

growleaves wrote: »

There's a certain cohort who keep using the word "cohort".

Last year it was 'setting'. Instead of saying pub they'd say a pub setting. Baahaa

Dempo1

Quite a move by Boris today, apparently he's no up to date data, he's saying possibly 50,000 cases a day by the 19th July and whilst I can understand the need for restrictions being lifted, the facemask decision quite a move. I could be wrong but I think he might have gone too far (just a humble opinion, not biting off of heads please)

Degag

Dempo1 wrote: »

I could be wrong but I think he might have gone too far (just a humble opinion, not biting off of heads please)

I think he undoubtedly has; which isn't really surprising considering his performance pandemic-wise thus far.

Del Griffith

Fair play to Boris, enough is enough, vaccines rolled out so getting the show on the road.

Can only hope the Brits colonise us again. Failing that I'd take direct rule from Brussels.

Anything over the spineless gutless crowd we have now, only thing worse I can think of is the opposition.

Dempo1

Del Griffith wrote: »

Fair play to Boris, enough is enough, vaccines rolled out so getting the show on the road.

Can only hope the Brits colonise us again. Failing that I'd take direct rule from Brussels.

Anything over the spineless gutless crowd we have now, only thing worse I can think of is the opposition.

OMG, re colonise us, that's going to get a reaction