Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

HalfAndHalf

brickster69 wrote: »

And if the UK get it wrong there is no chance Ireland will open anything till Christmas :pac::pac:

And then we won’t at Xmas as it’ll be winter and every sniffle, cold and flu symptom will be Covid!

Ballynally

growleaves wrote: »

Here published on 18th of June is NHS data on variants:

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England

Please skip to Page 8/71 which gives the respective CFRs for Alpha variant and Delta variant.

Alpha 1.9% (1.8 to 2.0%)

Delta 0.1% (0.1 to 0.2%)

Delta, according to this NHS data, is 1/10th to 1/20th as deadly as the original strain and the first mutations.

I am not going to argue about the numbers.
What i will say however, that it is impossible to calculate.
The reason being that the control group is not the same.
In statistics, if you cannot have the same control group you cannot derive any conclusions.
Now, i havent seen the NHS data and i suspect they use it in the context of the changed variables. So, at this point in time, such and such a percentage of people do get infected, go to hospital and die compared to the first virus.
It would be a real test if you have a control group devided in half, one given Alpha, one given Delta.
It would be obviously immoral to do such a test. Nazi Germany comes to mind.
But IF, the NHS nrs w be different i think.
Having said that, variants tend to turn less lethal over time. It just needs to spread more. The timeframe there is uncertain.

Timmy O Toole

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It’s either that or no indoor dining, that’s the choice

No it's not "the choice". Ireland will be the only country in the world allowing only vaccinated people.

Hello Moto GP

I'm not exaggerating when I say the government has done literally nothing right in the last 15 months RE covid. Not one thing. They overreacted when they didn't need to, they undereacted when they should have done something, they employed solutions which made the situation worse, they got rid of things which would have helped. They literally could not have bollocksed things worse if they were trying, you'd need laser focus and maximum effort to intentionally make as much of a hames as they did.
But not only that, can you think of an area of society that is NOT currently engulfed in flames, even covid aside?
Housing: disaster.
Healthcare: catastrophe.
Homelessness: dreadful.
Drug addiction: soaring.
Violent crime: off the charts.
National debt: ballooning.
Sexually transmitted diseases: exploding.
Cyber security: non-existent.
Defence forces: crumbling.
Border control: terrible.
Agriculture: hammered.
Fishing: shafted.
Third level education rankings: plummeting.
Taxpayer money: massively wasted on a regular basis, everything ends up going HUGELY overbudget and delivered late (St. James' Hospital, Rural Broadband, Sewage Treatment Plant, etc.)
The list goes on and on. Literally, every single area of human life that matters is getting worse at a rate of knots. I'd love to ask a government minister to name one substantial thing that they or their party have contributed to Irish society and not effed up being all recognition. Just one.
They'd probably say something like "Promoting equality" (whatever the hell that means) or talk about woke Marxist social issues that fundamentally don't matter and are just used to distract from their painful blinding incompetence. When people start to cop on to what's happening they wave a referendum in front of our face about some totally unnecessary tripe to keep us all occupied.
Honestly, I cannot stress this enough. Every single thing these people touches turns to dirt.

_Kaiser_

Hurrache wrote: »

Ah sure why did we bother with them at all and instead cater for the lowest common denominator..

That's arguably what we did - catered to the "we must do something!" mob on social media who were outraged that we weren't wearing masks like other places.

So, we did.. (funny though how we're not as good as following other places when it comes to lifting these restrictions again though!)

As for "maybe they're not that effective", you're digging yourself even deeper with that.

Not at all.. Many people don't wear them correctly (as you said yourself), don't store them correctly, don't clean the reusable ones, and in general only comply because of the threat of fines and prosecution.

As such, they seem to make very little difference to the spread of the virus either way. No masks this time last year and yet we had very few cases and even less hospitalisation or deaths despite the country being more open than it is now.

How do you account for that?

Plus if they were so effective, don't you think people WOULD be wearing them correctly and at all times?

Or is it maybe that covid itself isn't that dangerous to the majority of people in this country after all?*


(* you don't need to answer that one. 15 months of data has already done that!)

growleaves

Ballynally wrote: »

I am not going to argue about the numbers.
What i will say however, that it is impossible to calculate.
The reason being that the control group is not the same.
In statistics, if you cannot have the same control group you cannot derive any conclusions.
Now, i havent seen the NHS data and i suspect they use it in the context of the changed variables. So, at this point in time, such and such a percentage of people do get infected, go to hospital and die compared to the first virus.
It would be a real test if you have a control group devided in half, one given Alpha, one given Delta.
It would be obviously immoral to do such a test. Nazi Germany comes to mind.
But IF, the NHS nrs w be different i think.
Having said that, variants tend to turn less lethal over time. It just needs to spread more. The timeframe there is uncertain.

Thanks, very insightful post.

_Kaiser_

lawred2 wrote: »

Your papers please!!?

Joke

I remember saying that last year and referencing Cold War era movies, yet here we are.

the kelt

brickster69 wrote: »

And if the UK get it wrong there is no chance Ireland will open anything till Christmas :pac::pac:

True, if it goes tits up in the uk ye might as well write off the rest of the year over here.

If it goes well in the uk, still won’t make a blind bit of difference over here.

lawred2

growleaves wrote: »

Here published on 18th of June is NHS data on variants:

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England

Please skip to Page 8/71 which gives the respective CFRs for Alpha variant and Delta variant.

Alpha 1.9% (1.8 to 2.0%)

Delta 0.1% (0.1 to 0.2%)

Delta, according to this NHS data, is 1/10th to 1/20th as deadly as the original strain and the first mutations.

That data wasn't available to NPHET I suppose!

corkonion

Deeper Blue wrote: »

So are they on track to open by July 19th or to have a plan by July 19th? There's a huge difference between the two

Its something like " everyone that is eligible will have a vaccine appointment by the end of june"
They just say stuff to keep us compliant, while wallowing in keeping us restricted

Ballynally

Parachutes wrote: »

I’d go out on a limb and say they’ll be grand. There will be no overflowing hospitals and the sky won’t fall down.

If it does go tits up it just proves the vaccines are ****ing useless.

To me it is not a binary choice, neither a "****hole" or 'theyll be grand"
It is, as always, a trade off. The UK government is making a calculated risk from a positive point of view.
Nobody knows the precise outcome but by now it is pretty clear that the war is almost over, at least in the west.
The UK might be heading for operation Market Garden (check yr history) but we will get to Berlin at some near point in the future
( that is, if SarsCov3 wont come knocking on our door)
We are still battling variants, succesfully.

_Kaiser_

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

You'd swear he is after making it illegal to wear a mask ffs

And this is the really strange thing.

Because it will be no longer mandatory, some people are losing their minds rather than just carrying on as they have to this point and continuing to mask up if they want. Nothing wrong with them doing that either.

It seems more that those same people who want the Government to mandate and validate their actions, are now upset because not everyone feels the same way about the issue that they do.

These people should be reminded that the real world isn't Twitter.

Hurrache

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I just cannot see Michael Martin following Boris Johnson's courage.

Jesus Christ, this thread has always been dipping its toes in farce but has really crapped itself with this. It's like people only discovered Johnson today during his press conference.

Fils

Nphet aren’t giving a inch. Have the government the liathroidi to go against them.

corkonion

Furze99 wrote: »

You're in La La Land - the thrust of the vaccination programme was to firstly vaccinate healthcare workers, then those most at risk with other underlying conditions and the general population above 60 years of age. They have largely addressed all to date except those 60-69. Even just now on RTE we have an admission that there are insufficient AZ vaccine supplies to complete this.

You won't be getting an AZ vaccine because there aren't even enough to target the population at risk. And by the time there is, no one else will be taking it because there's no point in using a vaccine that will have to be supplemented by the mRNA type.

As things stand, there are people in their 40s fully vaccinated whilst the population at risk are stuck in an AZ limbo.

Which is a dire reflection on AZ, many European countries have banned its use, and we still can't get enough to give out second doses in a timely fashion, is their whole production facility in a 8x4 garden shed? Thank god for Pfizer, without them we'd be facing a decade of lockdown.

growleaves

Mass mask wearing on a timescale of years is itself an experiment.

Restricting oxygen flow on a daily basis for say three years does... what to your health? No one knows.

But hey 'I thrust the experts' right?

growleaves

Hurrache wrote: »

Jesus Christ, this thread has always been dipping its toes in farce but has really crapped itself with this. It's like people only discovered Johnson today during his press conference.

Whenever I look at him I assume barbers are still closed in UK.

Hurrache

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

That's arguably what we did - catered to the "we must do something!" mob on social media who were outraged that we weren't wearing masks like other places.

So, we did.. (funny though how we're not as good as following other places when it comes to lifting these restrictions again though!)



Not at all.. Many people don't wear them correctly (as you said yourself), don't store them correctly, don't clean the reusable ones, and in general only comply because of the threat of fines and prosecution.

As such, they seem to make very little difference to the spread of the virus either way. No masks this time last year and yet we had very few cases and even less hospitalisation or deaths despite the country being more open than it is now.

How do you account for that?

Plus if they were so effective, don't you think people WOULD be wearing them correctly and at all times?

Or is it maybe that covid itself isn't that dangerous to the majority of people in this country after all?*


(* you don't need to answer that one. 15 months of data has already done that!)

Your logic is terrible, you simply can't, and don't, account for stupidity, of which there continuous to be much of, this thread a prime example.

Your logic is the same as saying if some people don't get themselves vaccinated, then no point vaccinating others.

You even have yourself convinced they were only introduced, the world over, because of Twitter.

It's absurd you're trying to argue the effectiveness of masks because there's some many stupid people who can't figure them out.

_Kaiser_

Hurrache wrote: »

Jesus Christ, this thread has always been dipping its toes in farce but has really crapped itself with this. It's like people only discovered Johnson today during his press conference.

Why's that? Because you don't personally agree with the decision?

That's entirely your right - and you may be proven correct in the end - but you really need to learn to accept that not everyone will feel the same way about something as you do, and that's fine too.

As I referred to above.. Covid has really exposed a section of society who actively get angry and upset and start lashing out when their own views aren't universally validated.

It's a disturbing trend TBH.

Hurrache

growleaves wrote: »

Mass mask wearing on a timescale of years is itself an experiment.

Restricting oxygen flow on a daily basis for say three years does... what to your health? No one knows.

But hey 'I thrust the experts' right?

Sorry, I didn't mean my recent post to be a challenge to someone to try post something even stupider, yet here it is.

Hurrache

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Why's that? Because you don't personally agree with the decision?

That's entirely your right - and you may be proven correct in the end - but you really need to learn to accept that not everyone will feel the same way about something as you do, and that's fine too.

As I referred to above.. Covid has really exposed a section of society who actively get angry and upset and start lashing out when their own views aren't universally validated.

It's a disturbing trend TBH.

It's not a trend, disturbing or not. If you post nonsense, contrary to science everywhere, it's not my opinion, you're simply wrong, and there's no arguing that masks are effective.

Beasty

growleaves wrote: »

Restricting oxygen flow on a daily basis for say three years does... what to your health? No one knows.

Doesn't bother healthcare workers

Now stop making such outlandish claims

growleaves

Hurrache wrote: »

Sorry, I didn't mean my recent post to be a challenge to someone to try post something even stupider, yet here it is.

Surgeons only wear them for two hours at a time in a climate controlled environment. Not all surgeons wear masks even.

No guarantee that someone wearing a mask day-in day-out for an 8 hour shift will not suffer adverse health effects down the line. You are literally restricting oxygen flow for that time.

growleaves

I'll shut up talking about it.

brickster69

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

And this is the really strange thing.

Because it will be no longer mandatory, some people are losing their minds rather than just carrying on as they have to this point and continuing to mask up if they want. Nothing wrong with them doing that either.

It seems more that those same people who want the Government to mandate and validate their actions, are now upset because not everyone feels the same way about the issue that they do.

These people should be reminded that the real world isn't Twitter.

They will be moaning if you do not where one when you laid out are in a wooden box next these bar stewards.

_Kaiser_

Hurrache wrote: »

Your logic is terrible, you simply can't, and don't, account for stupidity, of which there continuous to be much of, this thread a prime example.

Your logic is the same as saying if some people don't get themselves vaccinated, then no point vaccinating others.

You even have yourself convinced they were only introduced, the world over, because of Twitter.

It's absurd you're trying to argue the effectiveness of masks because there's some many stupid people who can't figure them out.

What are you so angry/outraged or fearful about?

I'm being genuine here... the facts and stats of the last 15 months have shown who is actually at significant risk from Covid - on the whole it's a thankfully very small number in this country.

It's also shown that the overwhelming majority are at little to no risk from it - again, surely this is a very good thing?

Don't forget the effect of the vaccination programme which is also a very effective countermeasure, especially for the first group above.

So unless you think that we can somehow prevent death entirely (we can't), or your issue is that others don't feel the same level of concern that you do, then what are you getting so upset about?

Ice Albatross

growleaves wrote: »

Mass mask wearing on a timescale of years is itself an experiment.

Restricting oxygen flow on a daily basis for say three years does... what to your health? No one knows.


But hey 'I thrust the experts' right?

Some are born experts, others have expertise thrust upon them

corkonion

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Hope I am wrong but seems the UK are taking unnecessary risks.

A few colleagues today said similar to me.

I just hope the “great Bozza Jozza” takes full responsibility if it goes down the sh1tter...

I agree with Boris, it's now or never. Vaccinations and people recently recovered from a mild case gives a great deal of immunity, opening up in October or November is madness, when everyone shields together indoors from our amazing climate, of course he's taking a risk, for me,its the right risk

ElTel

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It’s either that or no indoor dining, that’s the choice

Or ignore Nphet!
Have they updated their projections yet before they retune them with new data from these few weeks?

I really hate the idea of vaccine passes and so did our government on principle I thought.
MM (it seems) is now running around trying to implement Nphet's advice!!!

Hmmm, Your probably right but the optimist in me hopes it's a ploy to help the vaccine drive.

Our country's vaccine uptake stats by the 19th should even render the international travel pass unnecessary for the over 40s.(say)

corkonion

Does anyone know if the Romanian vaccine deal has been completed and if they are on route? Our national broadcaster don't like to give positives, so there's no info there, yesterday, when cases climbed a little, it was headline news, today, when they dropped way back down, they decided not to report on numbers.