Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

the kelt

showpony1 wrote: »

anyone else sell off all their home gym gear? i was about sell my spin bike but now having second thoughts about Tony deciding their is too much risk in winter and closing everything down.

To be honest im thinking of going the other way and investing in some home equipment.

charlie14

MOH wrote: »

Let's not forget that at the end of March Ronan Glyyn told us it would be "a very significant challenge" to keep cases as low as 500-600 per day.

It was just over a week later that the 7-day average dropped below 500, where it's been ever since, mostly in the low 400s, briefly dipping below 300.

And that was based on Alpha, before we'd identified the first Delta case here.
Tells you all you need to know about the accuracy of their modelling.

There are many examples worldwide where modelling figures were inaccurate, both optimistic and pessimistic, but I`m not sure that example is one of them tbh.
Sounds more from those figures that people actually heeded what was being said.

mightyreds

Johns nephew wrote: »

Britain have had one of the biggest vaccine roll out in the world, they have had restrictions for 16 months. What else can they do except get on with life?

This is exactly the thing if you get to the stage where everyone is offered a vaccine and you cant move on when can you? My guess would be never then the conspiracy forum starts to become credible.

the kelt

Degag wrote: »

Where are you getting that from?

We need the UK to succeed. That is blatantly obvious.

That doesn’t mean that one can’t be critical of the choices they’ve made regarding the easing of restrictions.

Genuine question?

Do ye think Tony Holohan and the rest of NPHET will change their thinking if its a roaring success?

Floppybits

Johns nephew wrote: »

Are most Lockdown lovers long-term unemployed losers who vote for solidarity-pbp?

I couldn't tell who they are or there employment status and I would never try to either. There are people out there who are quite happy with the current restrictions and would be more than happy to continue on this way. We need to start moving on and living with Covid and if people still want to live by these restrictions then that is their choice but its not something that we all should be forced to live with if we don't want too.

Floppybits

the kelt wrote: »

Genuine question?

Do ye think Tony Holohan and the rest of NPHET will change their thinking if its a roaring success?

What admit they were wrong? Can't see it happening. The government are the ones that are going to have to make that decision and take back control from NPHET.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

There are many examples worldwide where modelling figures were inaccurate, both optimistic and pessimistic, but I`m not sure that example is one of them tbh.
Sounds more from those figures that people actually heeded what was being said.

That "praise" has been used again and again throughout this but little evidence it has ever been used in their models. This is one reason there are questions over this type of modelling, lack of input data on public response.

MOH

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It's your own posts that are playing the man not the ball.

Report away so, and leave the modding to the mods?

Hurrache

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

What hypocrisy, yours? You're criticising others for posting unreliable sources while doing the exact same yourself.

Like I said at the time, and probably a few times since, the data in the tweets wasn't his, they were graphs, fact and figures from a variety of organisations, there was nothing unreliable or inaccurate about them.

The hypocrisy is people whinging about me criticising the Telegragh and Javid and brushing off that story as it's likely to be a simple PR exercise given the 2 involved, while at the same time jumping at the links I posted because of who had linked to the unarguable facts and figures, ignoring those undeniable facts and figures.

It couldn't be more blatant.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

The "UK" aka Boris and his new Minister of Health have apparently decided to turn the clock back to March 2020 and let nature take its course and are back to the natural herd immunity theory.

I suspect Boris's usual populist leanings and Sajid Javid background as a merchant banker and a serious Margaret Thatcher acolyte has more got to so with the recent decision to dump all covid controls than any humanitarian leanings or concern about lives tbf.

Looking at social media- it would appear the new minister or his ideas are not necessarily as popular as some would suggest

But to your point on 'real costs' - I believe discussion on that is important and it will likley take years of analysis and real discussion as to balancing the human costs of the pandemic - but that's a thread yet to come.

Is Twitter representative of the population at large?

https://twitter.com/SherbetJibJab/status/1412090934804856833

Ballynally

BailMeOut wrote: »

They did say 'Irish people can expect to be issued with the certs by email and by post shortly - with the initial roll-out possibly starting by the end of this week.'

To get a digital cert on your phone you will need to scan a QR code and that will be sent electronically or on paper (in the post).

Nothing wrong with this process.

If that is the case that would be good.
The RTE site says the code will be attached to either an email or a letter..

Sobit1964

Gortanna wrote: »

Is Twitter representative of the population at large?

https://twitter.com/SherbetJibJab/status/1412090934804856833

The video is better:

https://twitter.com/MalkyTHE/status/1412091304440385540

Hundreds of identical posts - <sarc>not at all on purpose</sarc>

Degag

the kelt wrote: »

Genuine question?

Do ye think Tony Holohan and the rest of NPHET will change their thinking if its a roaring success?

I don’t know. I’d hope that would follow the data like they say but would still imagine there will be more caution shown than the UK.

Not saying that is right or wrong but they are certainly more risk adverse

Doctor Jimbob

Hurrache wrote: »

Like I said at the time, and probably a few times since, the data in the tweets wasn't his, they were graphs, fact and figures from a variety of organisations, there was nothing unreliable or inaccurate about them.

The hypocrisy is people whinging about me criticising the Telegragh and Javid and brushing off that story as it's likely to be a simple PR exercise given the 2 involved, while at the same time jumping at the links I posted because of who had linked to the unarguable facts and figures, ignoring those undeniable facts and figures.

It couldn't be more blatant.

Speaking of blatant, I like how you cut out the part of my post where I addressed the fact the data wasn't his. Seems like a blatant attempt to misrepresent my stance.

bucketybuck

Hurrache wrote: »

Like I said at the time, and probably a few times since, the data in the tweets wasn't his, they were graphs, fact and figures from a variety of organisations, there was nothing unreliable or inaccurate about them.

The hypocrisy is people whinging about me criticising the Telegragh and Javid and brushing off that story as it's likely to be a simple PR exercise given the 2 involved, while at the same time jumping at the links I posted because of who had linked to the unarguable facts and figures, ignoring those undeniable facts and figures.

It couldn't be more blatant.

You lumped me into that despite that fact that I had never jumped on any of your previous links, I couldn't even post here until a few days ago. Easier to dismiss my point that way I guess.

Penfailed

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's plain as day that NPHET will recommend some form of lockdown to government in next 4 weeks. Case numbers are only going to go up which further justifies their rationale. Don't agree with NPHET on this as I think they are being too cautious.

I don't agree with you on this as I think you are being too pessimistic.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

That "praise" has been used again and again throughout this but little evidence it has ever been used in their models. This is one reason there are questions over this type of modelling, lack of input data on public response.

I have seen these modelling figures from other countries being used to promote "open up everything right now" here where they later shown to be spectacularly inaccurate.
It`s not an exact science by any means, but from the OP example I don`t see where it could be called a failure as people appeared to have heeded what was said and numbers dropped accordingly.

Floppybits

Penfailed wrote: »

I don't agree with you on this as I think you are being too pessimistic.

What if case numbers are up but hospitalistions remain low, what then? The whole point of the lockdowns were to protect the hospitals now the vaccines are suppose to be doing that.

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

Well, the government want it to happen but will not currently push back against NPHET with their big numbers. We're all watching the UK but it remains to be seen whether data in two weeks will make any difference to that stance, even though what NHPET claimed would cause that surge is now not happening.

But the UK is open big time in comparison to here, the rest of Europe for that matter too. We can’t even get the travel Certs issued in time so that people can holiday abroad, eat indoors, go to a concert, match etc. It’s pathetic on every level.

Floppybits

Floppybits wrote: »

Isn't that the Irish way, to not discuss these things and bury them away in a dark closet and never to be opened as we have seen the Mother and baby homes, the state sponsored church abuse and sex. We as a nation need to grow up and start discussing these things not matter who uncomfortable they might be.

I think in Iceland they have some saying that they have a "small island" mentality. I think the same applies to Ireland. We tend to form a general consensus on most issues and use a good dose of shaming to cast out the dissenters.

gansi

gansi wrote: »

But the UK is open big time in comparison to here, the rest of Europe for that matter too. We can’t even get the travel Certs issued in time so that people can holiday abroad, eat indoors, go to a concert, match etc. It’s pathetic on every level.

A lot of opposition in England. None in Ireland. Unique in the world in that respect. That's why Ireland is the outlier in Europe in terms of restrictions.

Whatsisname

Sobit1964 wrote: »

The video is better:

https://twitter.com/MalkyTHE/status/1412091304440385540

Hundreds of identical posts - <sarc>not at all on purpose</sarc>

There was similar stuff when it first hit Italy, hundreds and thousands of identical posts all calling for a lockdown. Same happened when UK announced the herd immunity angle initially too. I remember coming across posts on Reddit that were blatant shill accounts too, you’d wonder how often you’re actually reading real people’s opinions on social media over the last year and not some bots.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

I have seen these modelling figures from other countries being used to promote "open up everything right now" here where they later shown to be spectacularly inaccurate.
It`s not an exact science by any means, but from the OP example I don`t see where it could be called a failure as people appeared to have heeded what was said and numbers dropped accordingly.

If you do an economic model of a 2% VAT increase you know that have to factor in data about likely public response in terms of spending and the potential effect on income on such a measure. Epidemiological modelling does not do any of this yet it is the only arbiter on government actions in many places.

Gortanna

Gortanna wrote: »

A lot of opposition in England. None in Ireland. Unique in the world in that respect. That's why Ireland is the outlier in Europe in terms of restrictions.

It's so interesting.

Sobit1964

Sobit1964 wrote: »

The video is better:

https://twitter.com/MalkyTHE/status/1412091304440385540

Hundreds of identical posts - <sarc>not at all on purpose</sarc>

Amazing that any attempt at any discussion on any of that is relegated to the Conspiracy Theory forum.

One often reads articles in the West about how Twitter has erupted over such and such a thing. Almost half of the world's population has no access to the internet and couldn't care less about Twitter and social media as a result, In the West meanwhile, Twitter determines public policy and what journalists write about.

lawred2

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Its refreshing to hear some grownup discussion when the past year and a half have been so:

https://twitter.com/MalkyTHE/status/1412091304440385540

Twitter could sort a lot of this overnight by preventing tweets being created programmatically. Free free to use the API for analytics etc but I can't see where the value add for Twitter is in programmatic tweets

is_that_so

gansi wrote: »

But the UK is open big time in comparison to here, the rest of Europe for that matter too. We can’t even get the travel Certs issued in time so that people can holiday abroad, eat indoors, go to a concert, match etc. It’s pathetic on every level.

Well, travel certs only became official 5 days ago in Europe. I don't disagree on hospitality, it's extremely cautious but I'm OK with a two week pause. My concern is what the new models will tell us in two weeks' time and the potential impact on other areas in society.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

If you do an economic model of a 2% VAT increase you know that have to factor in data about likely public response in terms of spending and the potential effect on income on such a measure. Epidemiological modelling does not do any of this yet it is the only arbiter on government actions in many places.

Not disagreeing with you. Just pointing out that modelling figures have been used on both sides of the argument and neither have been to any degree accurate.
My point was that the example given by the OP may not have been a great example of inaccuracy as people appeared to have listened to what was said and the numbers subsequently dropped.

FileNotFound

is_that_so wrote: »

Based on what? Last year? We'll have done all adults who want a dose and be well on our way with kids, if they decide to let that happen. Probably be doing boosters then too!

We will see a a spike in case numbers when schools return, or at least we are likely to especially if we delay our opening as the 2 will coincide.

That will act as their justification I suppose.

Literally what the Chris Whitty in the UK says they are trying to avoid - level the load.

What is the info on the AZ immunity duration anyone know, I've seen all sorts of figures. We may see the line - we need time to boost the front line workers.

FileNotFound

Red Silurian wrote: »

Probably, with England on our doorstep playing the fool from the 19th of July it's only a matter of time before we see a similarly huge load in cases

For the record I'm not suggesting we keep restrictions, we should open up because why not have some freedoms before the inevitable happens?

Boris is banking on people being quick to forget, take some hits now and be open for Xmas etc.