Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

At this stage, I'm convinced that indoor hospitality will be closed until early 2022 -- though they don't have the nerve to say so.

Why?

Because it takes several weeks post-vaccination for the effects to fully come through. This brings us into August.

Then, as per Holohan's letter today, concern has already been raised about schools/colleges returning in September. Therefore, "caution" will be warranted.

After that, we are diving into the optimum season for viral replication. Whether it's the Delta or some future variant, NPHET will argue that cases will rise too high in hot, indoor winter settings.

This will last throughout winter, leading us into early 2022 when all restrictions - perhaps except a mask mandate - will be lifted.

I hope that I turn out to be completely and utterly wrong.

lawrencesummers

suicide_circus wrote: »

Is there now any reason to believe the travel will be back on the 19th July?

Yes, because the gobs in this country are not deciding it.

suicide_circus

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Yes, because the gobs in this country are not deciding it.

Arent they?

acequion

Ballynally wrote: »

How many public health experts did get things spectacularly wrong during the pandemic? A model is based on an assumption of direction the data seems to point to. Although it is a useful tool to have as a way to simplify a system into an X and Y line, and makes a watcheable power point presentation, given the interaction of the many variables and the continueing changing circumstances this system is highly speculative and cannot give an accurate description of future prospects.
It is a bit like predicting the weather. High probability for 3 days, after that an extending error margin. 5-7 days an educated guess. Longer and you are in the tall grass. I would take any good weather expert over a health expert in terms of the certainty of predictions in which the former will have a lot of 'it depends'.
Weather people have very sofisticated computer models.
The latter are more like economists with their inventive models, claiming knowledge where there isnt enough data, assuming A leads to B. Guesswork is a better description.
The best model is the one in hindsight.
Put 10 models in a bucket. Take one out and that's the winner.
The higher a person is up in the pecking order, the more he is a manager/policitian and likely to carry the least insight into statistics.
So, whenever you hear a health expert say:" if nothing changes, it looks like we are going to have X amount of.." you can stop listening.
He is playing a game to push a simplistic model down your throat or ignorant of other factors. It is a bit like the Groucho Marx joke: '..i have Principles, you know and if you dont like them...i have others!

A very interesting insight. And very plausible too. Nice sophisticated PP presentation, bamboozle with stats and jargon and shur what about it if it's mainly guesswork!! No one is checking the figures too closely.

And because that's from NPHET and because they say so, that's all it takes to destroy livelihoods and a country's economy.Wow :eek:

giveitholly

[Deleted User] wrote: »

At this stage, I'm convinced that indoor hospitality will be closed until early 2022 -- though they don't have the nerve to say so.

Why?

Because it takes several weeks post-vaccination for the effects to fully come through. This brings us into August.

Then, as per Holohan's letter today, concern has already been raised about schools/colleges returning in September. Therefore, "caution" will be warranted.

After that, we are diving into the optimum season for viral replication. Whether it's the Delta or some future variant, NPHET will argue that cases will rise too high in hot, indoor winter settings.

This will last throughout winter, leading us into early 2022 when all restrictions - perhaps except a mask mandate - will be lifted.

I hope that I turn out to be completely and utterly wrong.

Early 2022? Not a hope,reckon earliest it will be is May 2022 and that is being generous

PaulJoseph22

PaulJoseph22 wrote: »

Not irrelevant, if this is the level of ‘expertise’ that the clowns are following.

Also google his advice on pandernix despite warnings. So not the first time tony flew in the face of better medical wisdom. He should be made step down citing early comeback after his wifes passing. Then deconstruct the quango...

Coillte_Bhoy

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Not at all

I don’t defer to them

I am happy our elected officials in the form of the cabinet have NPHET to brief and advise them

Remember. Some of the cabinet have no 3rd level qualifications and almost all have no medical qualifications.

So yeah, the cabinet can disregard the advice. They can. But they are obviously won over by the reports.

Most of the cabinet had little time to 'scrutinise' the latest report/letter. I think it's clear now that the cabinet will blindly accept any recommendations from NPHET

Fils

suicide_circus wrote: »

Is there now any reason to believe the travel will be back on the 19th July?

Not a chance with this new variant.

jusvi2001

ninebeanrows wrote: »

why have Nphet been so quiet today, they often out

So as Martin and Leo. didn't bothered to answer questions from journos.

Tenzor07

eskimohunt wrote: »

This will last throughout winter, leading us into early 2022 when all restrictions - perhaps except a mask mandate - will be lifted.

Optimistic aren't you?

So long as Holohan and Nolan are in charge there's really nothing to protect us from the "NPHET Variant"


When the 2k and 5k from home and only essential food retail to open comes back I hope people who support NPHET will remember...

tommybrees

All nephet is is a bunch of civil servants who have a long proven track history of failure. Combined with a government ministers with the same accolades what the hell do we expect.
It's over to people power now. Nothing else.

ninebeanrows

jusvi2001 wrote: »

So as Martin and Leo. didn't bothered to answer questions from journos.

Have a feeling they have realized the modelling is completely flawed and didn't take in to account any vaccination.

Mortifying for them.

Hopefully the ECDC can quickly appraise the figures.

Stheno

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Personally would love to be still at home but was given an ultimatum to return to work (sales and delivery/stock management role) over a year ago

Why did you not suggest that was against guidelines at the time and refuse?

ninebeanrows

It's likely the model simply used different R numbers with the existing death/hospitalisation per case rate.

It seems like this is weak weak modelling that could be worked on by an interested student in a few hours.

No vaccination programmed in to the model, can any journos who follow this thread please ask this question of politicians/ NPHET members.

They should admit their error now and put hundreds of thousands of people back to work and reinstate simple rights to citizens of this country.

brickster69

RavenBea17b wrote: »

Link to variants around the world. - these figures are updated regularly and are the ones reported to have been sequenced and identified after positive test.

https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/

You can certainly see why lot's of countries are now panicking with Delta. They have literally no idea what the hell is going on.

Stheno

ninebeanrows wrote: »

It's likely the model simply used different R numbers with the existing death per case rate.

It seems like this is weak weak modelling that could be worked on by an interested student in a few hours.

Previous models have already been shown to be flawed

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1409885270049239048?s=19

Beechwoodspark

Stheno wrote: »

Why did you not suggest that was against guidelines at the time and refuse?

Because I was told either come back driving or else be sacked

I have a mortgage a wife and kids. I was backed into a corner

The ironic thing is my sales actually were level and went up some weeks when I was working from home.

gozunda

jakiah wrote: »

Sure. All we heard was when we vaccinate the vulnerable we could reopen. Not so. We are in a worse position now than last summer when we had no vaccine....

Not being smart - but really no recollection of that being stated. Do you have a link?

namloc1980

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Not at all

I don’t defer to them

I am happy our elected officials in the form of the cabinet have NPHET to brief and advise them

Remember. Some of the cabinet have no 3rd level qualifications (Simon Harris is one example) and almost all have no medical qualifications.

So yeah, the cabinet can disregard the advice. They can. But they are obviously won over by the reports.

So you need third level to be able to use your brain? Interesting perspective.

Tony Holohan is neither a virologist nor a epidemiologist. Why do you think he's an expert here?

KrustyUCC

Consternation as Ministers 'blindsided' by NPHET

"Consternation.

That was the immediate reaction of ministers to the unexpected recommendation from the National Public Health Emergency Team that only vaccinated people, and those who had recovered from Covid-19, should be allowed to enjoy indoor hospitality.

They were blindsided by the NPHET advice and are struggling to get to grips with it.

For months, the Government had espoused the value of being "all in this together." It has publicly eschewed treating the vaccinated differently from those who did not have the jab.

Now that principle is being hastily ditched.

This situation might not have been so difficult for the Government, if there had been some planning about how such a policy would be introduced.

It appears this didn't happen because Government and NPHET policy was that there should be no policy difference between those who are vaccinated and those who are not.

However, it does beg the question - could NPHET not have tipped-off the Health Minister that a significant change in policy might possibly be required?

The Chief Medical Officer and Health Minister work in the same building.

Could Dr Tony Holohan not have tapped Stephen Donnelly on the shoulder and said: "Maybe you should look at that again... do some modelling... we might just have to have to recommend it."

I put that question to Tánaiste Leo Varadkar at today's news conference and he suggested that the answer would best come from NPHET.

However, he also said that there was an effective relationship between the public health experts and the Cabinet.

But opposition TDs believe there are significant questions about how they function together."

Interesting take from Paul Cunningham

It's mad that the government had no planning done for vaccinated people to avail of hospitality even just as a backup

The government being shocked at a Tony blindside lol

Did they learn nothing from level three to level five in one meeting with Tony back in October?

stephenjmcd

Whoops

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1409959838059278337?s=19

titan18

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Whoops

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1409959838059278337?s=19

What are the odds NPHET were straight on going wtf so Smyth was pulled aside and told to clarify it

jusvi2001

Fandymo wrote: »

How many “expert” epidemiologists on NPHET? How many “expert” virologists on NPHET?

The one and only advise from the so experts of Tony gang in last 15 months is 'close down everything' no matter how many vaccines administered or how many people recovered from covid.

There wont be a zero covid situation. Delta variant is not the first one and wont be the last one. What we need is a plan to live with covid and take calculated risk. unfortunately our spineless politicians have no ambition or vision for it. There were sitting on a stock pile of vaccines since last month and now on this 11th hour they decide to give it the young ones. May god forgive this bunch of clowns but people of Ireland wont.

Stheno

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Because I was told either come back driving or else be sacked

I have a mortgage a wife and kids. I was backed into a corner

The ironic thing is my sales actually were level and went up some weeks when I was working from home.

So you chose to break the guidelines at the time?

And now you expect those of us who've had to put our lives for 16 months to do so further whole you still ignore guidelines so your vulnerable family members are protected?

Are you having a laugh?

KrustyUCC

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Whoops

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1409959838059278337?s=19

Ha nice backtracking

Can't be scrutinizing very important modelling that is being used to keep society closed, businesses to not trade and thousands of people to remain unemployed and costing the state millions

Fils

Stheno wrote: »

So you chose to break the guidelines at the time?

And now you expect those of us who've had to put our lives for 16 months to do so further whole you still ignore guidelines so your vulnerable family members are protected?

Are you having a laugh?

The biggest laugh is the faux outrage and model 16 month hibernation.

Arytonblue

The 'expert' label with NPHET at this stage, to me at least, is just an easy to slap on label to someone/ some group in an authoritive position saying things you probably already agreed with anyway. Most ordinary people, you know, the majority of this country I like to think, are actually capable of even the most basic research and critical thinking on a topic if they are interested in it, to help come to their own conclusion, and yes this involves taking in a wide-range of data and studies by people in expert fields. It does not mean you follow and adhere 100% to whatever someone says because they happeneded to say it at that particular moment. That's the equivalent of a rabid sports fan, not a smart independent thinking adult judging the biggest crisis affecting it's nation in decades.

You don't need to be an epidemiologist or 'public health expert' to see that NPHETs idea of a 'Predictive Model' is about as weak and full of holes as the models I used to try and fob off in Year 1 of Economics at the last minute hungover. You can't call your model 'predictive' and also have such a wide range of outcomes from one extreme to another with about a million variables that you cannot account for days in advance, never mind 3 fcuking months and expect it to be taken seriously. What is the point in such wide ranging scenarios really? How likely are any of them? We don't know of course, too hard to know that, only the experts know that stuff, best go with worst case scenario then. The minute they put in that ludicrous 'pessimistic' model it basically throws the entire basis of the whole paper into question for me and I cannot take it seriously. I'm not going to discount my own thoughts and analysis of this stuff just to satiate an appeal to authority. It aint rocket science, it's a basic model using numbers over a period of time and none of them stand up to scrutiny because it's been made in-house by a questionable 1 issue group of civil servants with no independent review. Worshiping at the alter of authority is never a wise thing to do. Call it 'trust the experts' or 'follow the science' all you like, but most people have a half decent scent for pure bull**** and the reaction to that worthless excuse of a paper today said it all, absolutely reeking.

Some people speak as if NPHET are at the global pinnacle in expert advice and ideas. Here, I can list all of their wonderful, dynamic, forward thinking and proactive ideas over the last 15 months:

1. Lockdown.
2. Stay in Lockdown in order to prevent no 1.
3. Delay attempts at reopening at all costs. Pubs are the greatest threat to the Irish state and need to be vilifiied and martyred for the good of the nation.
4. Move the goalposts on the metrics used/ targets needed/ whatever Philip Nolan's breakfast cereal told him today.No consequences for why we change this, again, experts.
5. Never be wrong or incorrect because we are the experts. When we predict something to happen and it doesn't happen? NPHET we're right all along, clearly whatever we said worked. If whatever we said doesn't work? Obviously we aren't being listened to you bold boys and girls, no fun for you. Rest of EU/ UK not following in suit with our 'models' and plans? When will you learn? Experts :-)

And yeah, that's it. What a ****show. I need a big feck off joint after today.

namloc1980

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Whoops

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1409959838059278337?s=19

Couldn't be having any of that independent scrutiny. No way.

0ph0rce0

I reckon this goes on until just before Christmas, Tony says open up to see family for the holiday season and then all 5 million of us die in January.

namloc1980

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

I reckon this goes on until just before Christmas, Tony says open up to see family for the holiday season and then all 5 million of us die in January.

That's probably the optimistic NPHET scenario. :pac: