Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Marcusm

Frozen Veg wrote: »

How can they model data when they can't access the data for the last couple of months due to archaic IT Systems.

Because they’d already dumped it into the Lotus 123 spreadsheet they are using for the modelling. Can only accept a few hundred data points so it has to have wildly skewed outputs.

Arytonblue

Arytonblue wrote: »

And yeah, that's it. What a ****show. I need a big feck off joint after today.

Why was a 'pessimistic model' even included, if not for inducing fear?

Surely, the best approach is to follow the likely outcome - and base policy decisions on that.

Stheno

Fils wrote: »

The biggest laugh is the faux outrage and model 16 month hibernation.

I've been in my office for half a day in that time.
I've not seen my family in months

Yet that poster whines about vulnerable le family while admitting they don't follow guidelines every week?

namloc1980

If a data modeller where I work came in with scenarios ranging from 80,000 to nearly 800,000 of anything they'd be politely taken to one side and given a serious talking to.

gozunda

Stheno wrote: »

So you chose to break the guidelines at the time?

And now you expect those of us who've had to put our lives for 16 months to do so further whole you still ignore guidelines so your vulnerable family members are protected?

Are you having a laugh?

A bit personal no? I don't see how you think poster broke the guidelines

Captain Pillowcase

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

I reckon this goes on until just before Christmas, Tony says open up to see family for the holiday season and then all 5 million of us die in January.

:D Now that made me laugh!!! You could almost picture it, there you are, all round at Grannies house toasting the new year and bang - the Kris Kringle variant gets us all dropping like a kick in the snowballs

titan18

namloc1980 wrote: »

If a data modeller where I work came in with scenarios ranging from 80,000 to nearly 800,000 of anything they'd be politely taken to one side and given a serious talking to.

Yup, I'd be the same and I work in this area. It's a ridiculous variance in outcome and unless you can explain the points that cause the outcomes to differ do much, it should be completely disregarded.

GeorgeBailey

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

I reckon this goes on until just before Christmas, Tony says open up to see family for the holiday season and then all 5 million of us die in January.

That'd be sweet relief at this stage

Stheno

gozunda wrote: »

A bit personal no? I don't see how you think poster broke the guidelines

They were working from home and despite restrictions in place a year ago chose not to do so due to company pressure

Clearly not essential if as they themselves posted, their performance at home was dinw

Stheno

titan18 wrote: »

Yup, I'd be the same and I work in this area. It's a ridiculous variance in outcome and unless you can explain the points that cause the outcomes to differ do much, it should be completely disregarded.

Same where I work

If I cannot give a plus/minus of 10% in scenarios its discounted

Periodic reminder on this wonderful day, as we continue to be ruled by the docs and told to listen to the "experts", that during the Weimar Republic in the mid-twentieth century, more than half of all German physicians became early joiners of the Nazi Party, surpassing the party enrollments of all other professions.

It's posited that this was in part because of "professional vulnerabilities among physicians in general (valuing conformity and obedience to authority, valuing the prevention of contamination and fighting against mortality, and possessing a basic interest in biomedical knowledge and research)."

Just a one-off though, I'm sure.

KanyeSouthEast

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I’m NOT a public health expert

Neither are the cabinet

The experts however have provided briefing and advice to our elected officials

Speaking as someone with vulnerable family and friends I’m happy enough with that.

Much preferable than politicians making stupid populist decisions.

You have heard of vaccines have you?

HalfAndHalf

gozunda wrote: »

A bit personal no? I don't see how you think poster broke the guidelines

Speaking of personal, still waiting for an apology for you editing your post then making out like I was lying!

Beechwoodspark

Stheno wrote: »

They were working from home and despite restrictions in place a year ago chose not to do so due to company pressure

Clearly not essential if as they themselves posted, their performance at home was dinw

I was informed by my manager (foreign national who was a total spoofer and since sacked!) My job was not tenable at home

I pleaded with my employer - it drove me to tears

But I was told either go back delivering food to shops or else get the sack

That was my option.

Ballynally

Stheno wrote: »

Its not the right decision imo

Its based on flawed data

It is not the data that is flawed but the conclusions derived from it.
That is probably what you wanted to say..

titan18

Ballynally wrote: »

It is not the data that is flawed but the conclusions derived from it.
That is probably what you wanted to say..

No, for all we know they could be feeding crap data in to whatever model they're using. No one should have zero confidence that they're doing things correctly with the outcome they came out with (and this model has been continually wrong anyway)

normanoffside

What we all knew but was always denied by the lockdown cheerleaders.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1409902997333762050

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0629/1231973-irish-college-of-psychiatrists-mental-health/

John.Icy

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Because I was told either come back driving or else be sacked

I have a mortgage a wife and kids. I was backed into a corner

The ironic thing is my sales actually were level and went up some weeks when I was working from home.

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I was informed by my manager (foreign national who was a total spoofer and since sacked!) My job was not tenable at home

I pleaded with my employer - it drove me to tears

But I was told either go back delivering food to shops or else get the sack

That was my option.

How on earth are you a food delivery driver and you worked from home?

Either way, food delivery to shops is an essential service ergo your manager had every right to tell you to do your job, no?

EDIT: Open to understanding the situation but I am baffled at present as to what exactly your job is and whether or not you were required to WFH based on guidelines.

Beechwoodspark

My post from 19/10/20


In my situation I was working from home for approx a month and my sales figures were better than pre covid but my manager would not leave it well enough until I was pestered, cajoled, and borderline bullied into returning to work.

The same guy expected phone calls to be answered within 2 rings otherwise he’d query what you were doing and why not a quicker answer....where do I even begin to explain what it has been like working with this guy.

I was not provided with any letter from my employer either and when I protested that I was told “just tell them you are essential as you work stocking convenience stores”. He also said if a guard stops you ring me and put me on to the guard. That was the height of support I got.

I think it’s awful that some employers have decided to act the pr1ck over this

campo

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I was informed by my manager (foreign national who was a total spoofer and since sacked!) My job was not tenable at home

I pleaded with my employer - it drove me to tears

But I was told either go back delivering food to shops or else get the sack

That was my option.

What difference does this make ?

PTH2009

Where's the report from outside Wembley Stadium where there all dropping like flies because of the scary Delta Variant ?

Ballynally

namloc1980 wrote: »

If a data modeller where I work came in with scenarios ranging from 80,000 to nearly 800,000 of anything they'd be politely taken to one side and given a serious talking to.

indeed and furthermore, a model rarely completes its trajectory. It changes over time. A new, revised model appears and then that changes again .
As i said before, the right model is the one taken in hindsight..

Feria40

Jesus Christ, George Lee just on RTE running with the NHPET worse case scenario without any question.

Just short of saying that we should be delighted that we are not going back into full lockdown...

Dr. Bre

PTH2009 wrote: »

Where's the report from outside Wembley Stadium where there all dropping like flies because of the scary Delta Variant ?

The moshing inside the stadium and celebrations at bars will be crazy but who can blame them! Trying to forget about covid and enjoy themselves

0ph0rce0

PTH2009 wrote: »

Where's the report from outside Wembley Stadium where there all dropping like flies because of the scary Delta Variant ?

Aidric

namloc1980 wrote: »

If a data modeller where I work came in with scenarios ranging from 80,000 to nearly 800,000 of anything they'd be politely taken to one side and given a serious talking to.

titan18 wrote: »

Yup, I'd be the same and I work in this area. It's a ridiculous variance in outcome and unless you can explain the points that cause the outcomes to differ do much, it should be completely disregarded.

Stheno wrote: »

Same where I work

If I cannot give a plus/minus of 10% in scenarios its discounted

Completely agree. Basing policy on a worst case scenario model would be dismissed out of hand at any functioning company. This government is now paralyzed by fear and has lost all relationship to reality.

Shelga

I don't think it's a coincidence that those who can and can't dine indoors will be (very roughly) divided into those who are and are not completely f**ked by the housing crisis- i.e. those over 37/38 and those under this age. This shower of self-serving cretins we call a government has deliberately screwed millennials over with calculated housing policy since the recession designed to favour vulture funds and MNCs over the people of this country. They are incapable of looking beyond the next election and do not seem to give the tiniest shit about young people, unless it's to serve them food indoors of course.

That Micheal Martin, the man who was Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment the last time this country went to the dogs, has been rewarded for his atrocious incompetence by becoming the bloody Taoiseach, will never not boil my piss.

To not provide a date for reopening is just despicable. This government has abdicated all responsibility. Why does Mehole even do the press conferences?- just send Tony out.

16 in ICU with covid tonight, in the entire country. Contrast the news of RoI today with the scenes from Wembley, where 45,000 people celebrated their country's win.

Like the vast majority of people, I was grudgingly in agreement with how things were going for about three quarters of this pandemic. But now? It's unbelievable how wrong NPHET have gotten this. Their models are complete bullsh*t and not in line with any other country in the world, never mind Europe. I will join any protest organised, on behalf of all indoor hospitality.

MM refusing to provide an opening date has just pushed me over the edge.

Chivito550

A lad I know, who works in data analytics, told me NPHET's modeling is pure b0llocks and it's the equivalent of a company forecasting that their profits for the next year will be somewhere between €40 and €16,000,000.

Of course, the usual fools will lap it up.

Stheno

Shelga wrote: »

I don't think it's a coincidence that those who can and can't dine indoors will be (very roughly) divided into those who are and are not completely f**ked by the housing crisis- i.e. those over 37/38 and those under this age. This shower of self-serving cretins we call a government has deliberately screwed millennials over with calculated housing policy since the recession designed to favour vulture funds and MNCs over the people of this country. They are incapable of looking beyond the next election and do not seem to give the tiniest shit about young people, unless it's to serve them food indoors of course.

That Micheal Martin, the man who was Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment the last time this country went to the dogs, has been rewarded for his atrocious incompetence by becoming the bloody Taoiseach, will never not boil my piss.

To not provide a date for reopening is just atrocious. This government has abdicated all responsibility. Why does Mehole even do the press conferences?- just send Tony out.

16 in ICU with covid tonight, in the entire country. Contrast the news of RoI today with the scenes from Wembley, where 45,000 people celebrated their country's win.

Like the vast majority of people, I was grudgingly in agreement with how things were going for about three quarters of this pandemic. But now? It's unbelievable how wrong NPHET have gotten this. Their models are complete bullsh*t and not in line with any other country in the world, never mind Europe. I will join any protest organised, on behalf of all indoor hospitality.

MM refusing to provide an opening date has just pushed me over the edge.

I'm fully vaxxed and working from home since March 2020

I've love to get back to some small level of normality tbh

namloc1980

Ballynally wrote: »

indeed and furthermore, a model rarely completes its trajectory. It changes over time. A new, revised model appears and then that changes again .
As i said before, the right model is the one taken in hindsight..

The model scenarios presented by NPHET to cabinet, with such a massive variance, are absolutely useless to decision makers. If your variance is as wide as those from NPHET then making any sort of decision based on them is impossible and by default you'll just end up going with the worst case scenario to make decisions. That's not to defend the cabinet but the data presented by NPHET is pure scutter and not worth a shiite. The data going in must be a load of nonsense to get that variance. As they say "garbage in, garbage out".

And they were only forecasting for 3 months in the scenarios! If the variance is that wide for just the next few weeks, their worst scenario into next year will have us all dead by February.