Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

normanoffside

Chivito550 wrote: »

A lad I know, who works in data analytics, told me NPHET's modeling is pure b0llocks and it's the equivalent of a company forecast that their profits for the next year will be somewhere between €40 and €16,000,000.

Of course, the usual fools will lap it up.

As I Said on another thread:

It's like a weather forecaster saying that Tomorrow will be sunny, cloudy or stormy.
Temperature will be between -10 and 40 c.
Rainfall will be between 0mm and 100mm.
Winds will be between 0mp and 100mph

If a weather forecaster came up with that forecast they would be sacked.

stargazer 68

I work in a hospital and between the last 16 months and the cyber attack the general consensus today was we are just done.

Booking holidays, weekends away - some up North, etc.
Meeting up with family and friends now - we are vaccinated and so are they so sod it.

PTH2009

Chivito550 wrote: »

A lad I know, who works in data analytics, told me NPHET's modeling is pure b0llocks and it's the equivalent of a company forecasting that their profits for the next year will be somewhere between €40 and €16,000,000.

Of course, the usual fools will lap it up.

And nobody in government will stick up the people and challenge NPHET

Ballynally

titan18 wrote: »

No, for all we know they could be feeding crap data in to whatever model they're using. No one should have zero confidence that they're doing things correctly with the outcome they came out with (and this model has been continually wrong anyway)

ok.technically, data cant be flawed unless it is made up.
I dont think that is happening but i may be wrong.
But you can of course chose the data points which suits your narrative and disgard others, the way Pharma manipulates medicine studies.
And you can use a multiplier to amplify a number you like to make things look bigger than it would be.
That is manipulation. Of data points.
Or do you think NPHET is actually lying and make up the data?

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

As I Said on another thread:

It's like a weather forecaster saying that Tomorrow will be sunny, cloudy or stormy.
Temperature will be between -10 and 40 c.
Rainfall will be between 0mm and 100mm.
Winds will be between 0mp and 100mph

If a weather forecaster came up with that forecast they would be sacked.

The problem is that this isn't a forecast.

Same with NPHET.

They have basically given the entire range and said, "Something will happen between these extremes". Well, what a surprise.

Not even a 1st Year analyst worth their salt would return something as unprofessional as this - and yet this is the entire basis upon which the decision was made.

If I were Michael Martin, I'd have ordered an independent review with a sophisticated team and asked for the results back within 48-hours -- and base my decision on that.

To blindly go with NPHETs non-forecast / guesswork, is pure and utter insanity.

Degag

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Remember. Some of the cabinet have no 3rd level qualifications (Simon Harris is one example) and almost all have no medical qualifications.

I have a third level degree but this is extremely disingenuous.

Some of the biggest muppets and eejits i know have degrees and doctorates to beat the band. They are not earned through common sense.

This is not a common sense decision today regardless of qualifications.

(and Simon Harris is one of the finer examples we have in Government IMO btw - very competent)

shockframe

Feria40 wrote: »

Jesus Christ, George Lee just on RTE running with the NHPET worse case scenario without any question.

Just short of saying that we should be delighted that we are not going back into full lockdown...

Lee needs to step away for a while.

Looking at him wallow in people's misery is going too far.

lawrencesummers

stargazer 68 wrote: »

I work in a hospital and between the last 16 months and the cyber attack the general consensus today was we are just done.

Booking holidays, weekends away - some up North, etc.
Meeting up with family and friends now - we are vaccinated and so are they so sod it.

You know the actual advice is that vaccinated people can meet in whatever number that want????

Tenzor07

Shelga wrote: »

16 in ICU with covid tonight, in the entire country. Contrast the news of RoI today with the scenes from Wembley, where 45,000 people celebrated their country's win.

That England V Germany match was supposed to be in Dublin but cancelled due to the NPHET Governments restrictions, even with restricted numbers it brought a loss of €5 million in revenue plus a loss of advertising Ireland as a tourist destination... And now with the continued Lockdowns there's going to be no International tourism in Ireland this year, countless more millions lost...

https://www.newstalk.com/news/revealed-dublin-losses-as-a-result-of-missing-euro-2020-1218239

Relax brah

Sure look it’ll be over in a few weeks, we are “so close.” Again.

giveitholly

I know it has been posted here several times but could someone direct me to the tweet about NPHET'S projections back around March/April

Doctor Jimbob

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The problem is that this isn't a forecast.

Same with NPHET.

They have basically given the entire range and said, "Something will happen between these extremes". Well, what a surprise.

Not even a 1st Year analyst worth their salt would return something as unprofessional as this - and yet this is the entire basis upon which the decision was made.

If I were Michael Martin, I'd have ordered an independent review with a sophisticated team and asked for the results back within 48-hours -- and base my decision on that.

To blindly go with NPHETs non-forecast / guesswork, is pure and utter insanity.

Even beyond that, their most optimistic scenario involves things staying more or less as they are now - ignoring the fact that their optimistic scenarios were previously wrong and that we’re vaccinating an increasing number of people. It’s beyond parody. If I handed something like this up in college I’d be told to cop on to myself. The fact our government appear to have accepted it without question is a frightening insight into their capabilities.

Stheno

PTH2009 wrote: »

And nobody in government will stick up the people and challenge NPHET

The smart people in data and analytics do not work in the public sector
Most of the modellers are students

km79

stargazer 68 wrote: »

I work in a hospital and between the last 16 months and the cyber attack the general consensus today was we are just done.

Booking holidays, weekends away - some up North, etc.
Meeting up with family and friends now - we are vaccinated and so are they so sod it.

I said this yesterday
There is a danger now that normally compliant people have just had enough now and will stop listening to everything . Social distancing measures etc will slip as people now think that ii matter what they do it won’t make a difference .
NPHET cried wolf loudly in April about a 4th wave that never came and a summer that also now will never come

titan18

Ballynally wrote: »

ok.technically, data cant be flawed unless it is made up.
I dont think that is happening but i may be wrong.
But you can of course chose the data points which suits your narrative and disgard others, the way Pharma manipulates medicine studies.
And you can use a multiplier to amplify a number you like to make things look bigger than would be.
That is manipulation. Of data points.
Or do you think NPHET is actually lying and make up the data?

Might not even be nefarious that they're doing it, they could (probably are) be just inept and someone might have messed up the source data.

Not sure how they're doing it, but if there's any manual element to it in populating the data sources then you've something that's prone to human error, and for all we know someone could have left out a decimal point. Or if there's a decent bit of software/data engineering behind it, could be a wrong join somewhere. Unless it's validated and controlled by someone else, there's no guarantee its correct.

For all we know, they could have changed their model so much since they underestimated the January spike that that's the reason their variance is so large as they don't want to be caught again but ultimately it means their model is a load of crap.

namloc1980

giveitholly wrote: »

I know it has been posted here several times but could someone direct me to the tweet about NPHET'S projections back around March/April

This one:

.

Total fantasy from the experts.

SEPT 23 1989

North Korea Prime Time TV up next

Jinglejangle69

Really a lot of anger today after the ****show earlier.

FileNotFound

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Really a lot of anger today after the ****show earlier.

Most anger I have had and seen to be fair.

Total F up by the Gov.

stateofflux

km79 wrote: »

I said this yesterday
There is a danger now that normally compliant people have just had enough now and will stop listening to everything . Social distancing measures etc will slip as people now think that ii matter what they do it won’t make a difference .
NPHET cried wolf loudly in April about a 4th wave that never came and a summer that also now will never come

I agree with this. On top of that there is little logic to the proposals re: indoor passports...the dogs on the street know its not workable, will take ages to implement and smells like a red herring.

It will be house party palooza this summer.

boggerman1

shockframe wrote: »

Lee needs to step away for a while.

Looking at him wallow in people's misery is going too far.

George lee has made a career out of wallowing in misery porn

Penfailed

I posted this four days ago -

"I know this is going against the current consensus on the thread...but I think we'll be opening as planned."

It hasn't aged well.

I refrained from getting all outraged about the information that was leaking out in between times as I was still optimistic that the government would grow a pair of balls and put down NPHET and their crazy modelling. I was wrong. What a complete shítshow.

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

This one:

.

Total fantasy from the experts.

UK cases up 72% from last week
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

We are always behind the UK..

opinionated3

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

North Korea Prime Time TV up next

Can't even bring myself to watch it. What's the point anyway? Rte have been pathetic through this whole pandemic.

plastic glass

shockframe wrote: »

Lee needs to step away for a while.

Looking at him wallow in people's misery is going too far.

His life has barely changed one bit. Why would he cate one bit about the lowly common man. Lee is a disgust. Wringing his hands and salivating while giving updates on rte 1

titan18

NoDrama wrote: »

UK cases up 72% from last week
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

We are always behind the UK..

They're also miles ahead of us in regards reopening though. What we were doing on the 5th is what they did 6 weeks ago.

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

This one:

.

Total fantasy from the experts.

It's amazing how frequently NPHET have been shown to be wrong in their modelling, yet this is entirely forgotten by media organisms such as RTE and George Lee (not to mention the damn Government).

FileNotFound

titan18 wrote: »

They're also miles ahead of us in regards reopening though. What we were doing on the 5th is what they did 6 weeks ago.

Also cases in low to no risk populous don't mean squat.

This was supposed to be save th hospitals and prevent death.

namloc1980

NoDrama wrote: »

UK cases up 72% from last week
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

We are always behind the UK..

Our daily cases would need to increase by over 3,000% to hit the NPHET projection from March by end of Sept. You probably don't need me to tell you how outlandish that would be.

SEPT 23 1989

Government had no choice sez RTE