Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

mightyreds

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017553#Comment_118017553

They wont, they will be back to say case numbers have got too high and that we need to be cautious at this point in time and listen to the science. Point out how bad the situation in Burkina Faso is and we should look to them to see what could become of us.

Ozvaldo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017524#Comment_118017524

Because he doesnt live in a cave by himself

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017611#Comment_118017611

I wrote IF.. that means it's conditional. I don't want any retribution, I want to be wrong even. Why would I reference it? Because I believe it will go to hell.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017621#Comment_118017621

Nah, most around here have been wrong so many times now we just greet the latest one with a shrug. What this thing has done to opinions though is to make people a little bit less precious about them and to try to back them up. The problem for some posters is that they are wedded to single positions and that just makes them think that others have it in for them.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017509#Comment_118017509

Posted on the other thred but applies equally here.

We have 69 in ICU. 69% of whom are not vaccinated - 47 to 22. Now given 92% of the adult population are vaccinated, given the relative risk, with no vaccine you would expect us to currently have 587 people in ICU. And that is ignoring that the rate of vaccination is even higher among those most vulnerable. At peak in January we had 218 in ICU. The peak daily cases associated with the 218 peak was 6,500 in a population with no vaccine. To have 587 in ICU you would need the equivalent of 17,000 cases every day - eg. without the vaccine we would expect an additional 15,000 people to have been detected with availability of testing. Obviously this comes with assumptions and a margin of error, however it is clear, to have resulted in the relative ICU numbers we have now in vaccinated v unvaccinated, the vaccine has both significantly reduced both prevalence and severity by a huge amount.

We are slap bang in the middle of a huge wave, and you know, things are generally ok, because of the vaccines.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017597#Comment_118017597

As frustrating as the kite-flying, the leaks, and POTENTIAL delay in relaxing the restrictions is, it's the attitude of a cohort of posters on here, who seem to be less concerned with the actual restrictions and more concerned with winning some imaginary internet battle with other posters, that is most frustrating. It's pathetic and sad. Everyone is entitled to an opinion on here, some air their views more vocally than others, fair enough, call them out and move on. But it's clear to me from following this thread for the last 6 months or so, that there are some posters on here who wouldn't mind a continuation of restrictions so that they can gleefully proclaim "I told ye so".

BTW, before you or one of your acolytes accuse me, I'm not one of those posters who claimed everything would be back to normal on the 22nd. Being an optimist, I just hoped that it would. FWIW, I still believe we are on track and don't subscribe to some of the more insane views that not only will we keep current restrictions, but that we will be returning to lockdown. Anyway, this thread will be an interesting place to dip in and out of over the next few days...

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017553#Comment_118017553

As one of the people who was saying (not screaming) that the 22nd would happen I'd be more than happy to say I was wrong if it turns out that I was, and honestly it's looking likely I will be saying it at some point next week

Mind you, if it turns out we were right before would the posters from the other side admit they were wrong? I think not

I think there will be mass protests about it as well

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017679#Comment_118017679

Like I said, I'd gladly like to be wrong and if I am then I shall admit it.

They will open up with continued face masks on transport, in shops and in health settings and maybe a few other situations.

Yesterday the head of hospitality said they would keep vaccine cert checks for winter "if that's it takes"..he volunteered it up prior to it being retained, that's how bad things are. This will remain, so for the winter at least it will be Vaccine certs required to eat or drink in out of the cold and rain or even snow in addition to everything else.

If you're a politicians child though, you can go in and have your meal because the killer virus has no beef wit you, just those pesky anti-vaxers that are killing the economy and the grandparents..

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017660#Comment_118017660

The hospital situation is without doubt the main reason. If all restrictions end then obviously everything will start going up more and then they have to act again to prevent the hospital problem again. Restrictions were to prevent health services being overwhelmed in all countries but Ireland never thought about increasing them just in case they would be needed.

Apart from that, things don't look too bad to me. Just need to play it day by day ATM unfortunately.

Allinall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017493#Comment_118017493

Main headline now on RTE

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/1014/1253631-coronavirus-ireland/

Beechwoodspark

It’s pretty depressing to see we have a higher rate here than many EU countries who had less restrictions :/

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017660#Comment_118017660

Personally I agree re hospital dysfunctionality, its quite shocking , I brought someone to A&E yesterday, Midlands hospital and my god, I'd never seen such utter chaos, genuine emergency, broken limb , if this is what it's like now, week 2 in October, I dread what's coming down the track.

I've not called or discussed moving restrictions but I do get your point 😏

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017666#Comment_118017666

Very interesting post actually 😏

bucketybuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017670#Comment_118017670

Please. You have repeatedly pissed all over anybody who questioned if the 22nd was actually legitimate. Remember this...

"I can't believe we're even discussing this. Is there that much mental scarring, that throwaway comments, worst-case contingency plans, etc. are being used (again by the same few on here) as evidence of further lockdowns?"

Not an isolated comment, you and others sneer and jibe constantly at people who try to make logical points. But no matter, it all ends on the 22nd, right?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017711#Comment_118017711

And look at what she's saying:

"Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Prof Loscher said these mitigating risk factors should include maintaining the need for Covid-19 vaccination certs for indoor activities, along with a continued focus on mask wearing and hand sanitising."

She's not actually calling for the lifting of restrictions as planned. She's calling for the maintaining of a restriction, i.e. the vaccine passport.

Why did the interviewer not ask Professor Loscher why Denmark, with fewer people vaccinated at the time, were able to scrap all restrictions? Sweden and Norway the same.

Penfailed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017553#Comment_118017553

I didn't see any posters screaming about anything.

bloopy

Listening to morning Ireland, there was great emphasis on the passports.

Is this all about extending the vaccine passports I wonder.

Nyero

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017731#Comment_118017731

Little natural herd immunity was allowed build up during periods when it could have like over the last 2 summers.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017589#Comment_118017589

I think I can answer my own question: the media. Who are the perhaps the two most extreme countries in the erstwhile free world when it comes to covid? Ireland and the US. And both countries have a horrendous media. In Ireland it's normal for people to be called out and vilified by the media for not being vaccinated. Callum Robinson, for example. Exact same thing is happening in the US. NBA players, for example.

In both countries public health persons are now celebrities. Fauci is on news programmes every day and even had time to make a film and write a book. In Ireland Tomás Ryan, Sam McConkey, Gabriel Scally, Tony Holohan, Ronan Glynn et al are all household names.

Russman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017701#Comment_118017701

You're probably not far off the mark with this, although I still think they'll just go ahead as planned and fudge it with the caveat that it'll be reviewed.

From what I've read some countries are bringing in a rule that ties the percentage of ICU occupancy with the type of cert required. ie at the moment vaccinated, recovered or negative test is required to enter, but if ICU reaches x%, it reverts to vaccinated or recovered, if it increases again to y% it becomes vaccinated only. Whether its right or wrong, at least its a metric.

Despite the bleating about Denmark, Denmark, Denmark, lots of European countries are not fully back to normal yet and are keeping the requirement for a cert/masks during the winter. With 90% vaccination here, nearly everyone has one anyway so it doesn't much matter, or its a pointless exercise, depending on which way you look at it.

bear1

So they are meeting next Tuesday to let us know if on Thursday the easing can go ahead? Why leave it so late ffs

bucketybuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017679#Comment_118017679

You will be more than welcome to quote me, I helpfully made some very specific predictions about how I thought things would go. Here is one from August for example:

"I posted weeks/months ago that a plausible timeline was: Delay reopening until schools return and cases rise - delay again until November and then use the "remember last christmas" concern to keep restrictions - then surf the flu season wave into 2022.

People are crying that we are never happy but how can they not see that we are right bang on track for that timeline! They are going to give a "reopening plan" that doesn't take full effect for another 2 months, right at the end of October!

And if come the time it all gets pushed out again they will pretend none of this was said."

We continue to be right on track. I believe that rather than fully reopening on the 22nd, instead there will be a reopening with a bunch of caveats, things like vaccine passports remaining, certain attendance limits, social distancing in various areas etc etc. That is not what was promised but people will accept it and say, they aren't really restrictions, they don't affect us so whats the problem?" Then as we get into december the "remember last christmas" narrative aligned with rising cases and reports of struggling hospitals will see further restrictions discussed.

Those are my opinions and unlike others I will happily say so if they turn out to be wrong.

Penfailed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017770#Comment_118017770

Level 5 lockdown again? Nah.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017783#Comment_118017783

Fair points , I'd just say as someone with a direct connection to the states and someone who watches US Media regularly, it has to be said the Anti Vaccine Lobby and in particular media are extraordinarily and dare I say dangerously extreme, almost to the point of scary to be honest, their views go way beyond Vaccine hesitation and some quite astonishing and vile campaigns afoot.

bucketybuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017776#Comment_118017776

Can't be, we were assured that the legislation for those passports was expiring and would not be extended.

Nyero

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017793#Comment_118017793

Yes and its absolutely shocking. Next weekend is a bank holiday, people will have booked things in hospitality such as tables of more than 6 people which are now up in the air, so staff etc. are affected once again.

I know several pubs who have bands lined up, staff hired etc. on the basis of there being full capacity.

floorpie

A nightclub owner was on Morning Ireland talking about the disruption that will be incurred if restrictions aren't lifted on 22nd.

Although I feel bad for him and his staff, he listed his schedule of nightly events at full capacity in Dublin, across multiple defined age cohorts, comprising thousands of people, during the start of the season for respiratory illness. He said 50% or 75% capacity, or antigen testing, was a no go for him.

If this is their firm position then I believe that restrictions can not be lifted now. We are already in a worse position than this time last year pre-vaccination, and plans such as this will sky rocket us into a far worse winter than last year.

It's unfortunate but it was pretty much the stupidest plan ever to maintain restrictions until winter and then plan a reopen.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017755#Comment_118017755

Please. Show me the evidence where I have "pissed all over anybody who questioned if the 22nd was actually legitimate". My comment above was in relation to posters talking about a lockdown. Level 5, all locked away in our homes, with everything shut. I stand by my comments that we will not be returning to that.

So again, I ask, show me where "I sneer and jibe constantly at people who try to make logical points". Because talking about a Level 5 lockdown again is far from logical.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017793#Comment_118017793

because it will take a few more days to get all that data together so they can fudge it up. Data that will determine lives and livelihoods, peoples mental health and of course indisputable evidence that will cross all parties. You can now see why Donnelly extended the powers beyond October, it was always happening.

You'd think they'd leave this off the back of very low ratings etc. I think ad hoc protests at residences will be the least of their worries if they go in their perceived direction.

They aim to punish and really marginalize those who wont take a vaccine..I can see MM rubbing is hands, we'll keep them in the cold another winter and Xmas, they'll be begging us for jabs. What happened to leo.... "if not then, when?" Ireland want to win the race to 100% compliance, you can see it in their speeches, just a couple more percent folks and then the boosters!!

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017825#Comment_118017825

I wouldn't trust this Government to stick to their promises. Leo is already promoting it for the winter..

Nyero

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017832#Comment_118017832

Why ask us to imagine?

Why not nail your colours to the mast there and tell us what the 7 day moving average will be this time next week?

One days numbers in isolation is irrelevant and only used for cherry picking be the likes of yourself and the media.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017757#Comment_118017757

As the joke goes, when Scandinavian's had the physical distance requirement of 1m lifted they were delighted, as they could return to their previous 5m

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017817#Comment_118017817

I agree with you however that also works on the opposing side, there are "doctors" who are also extreme in their views, views which cannot be questioned, data which will not be shared, policies which cannot be scrutinized, numbers which cannot be overlooked and most of all and most importantly, profiles and influence which simply cannot be matched. Some have given their agendas away on social media and others have discredited antigen tests as "snake oil". Both camps are cranks, both camps have damaged credibility as I see it. Remember huge campaigns are always exploited and hijacked by extreme views but advertising revenue must be obtained, grants must be won, Nobel prizes for medicine will be fantasized about and politicians always love to kiss and save the babies.

Russman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017877#Comment_118017877

Ohh I totally agree, I've been asked for it and not asked for it. I guess what that means or illustrates could be debated for hours and hours.

Maybe some restaurants should advertise for those a bit nervous and say "we actually check" and other should have a "wink, wink" sign outside 😁😁

Meh, I dunno, they're damned if they do and potentially damned if they don't.

bloopy

Looks like we are going down the US route and a new Enemy is going to be served up to us over the next week in the form of the unvaccinated.

Will be perfect fodder for the two minute hate to get people all frothy in the mouth.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017860#Comment_118017860

I also heard that absolute clown, Adrian Cummins from Restaurant Association, talking utter nonsense, he had the absolute neck to say some staff may have to go back on PUP (Which is actually closed) , the very support this Tool has been incorrectly blaming for staff shortages for months, even before Restaurants fully opened, he makes my Blood Boil 😡

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017937#Comment_118017937

Yes agreed and I saw the patronising Sanjay Guptha of CNN last night having his latest covid book being shamelessly plugged on CNN, there was a fascinating 3 hr appearance by him on the Joe Rogan show, worth a look .

Dempo1

Claire Byrne about to discuss with Philip Nolan

Dempo1

Philip Nolan , Rapidly evolving Situation, Demand for testing increasing and positivity rates in public health laboratories @ 10 %

Dempo1

Philip Nolan , increase in Middle age older patients in hospital.

Seathrun66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017757#Comment_118017757

Denmark and Norway have been ahead of Ireland in terms of vaccinations throughout the rollout, Sweden a little behind. The first two nations have been cautious whereas Sweden have made a shambles of the entire situation. A country that is double the Irish population (10m to5m) but much more rural (6.5 times our size, 450,000 sq km to 70,000 sq km) has 38% more deaths than us (1,462 per million to 1,059pm). Sweden has also had 3.2 times the death rate of Denmark (460pm) and 9.1 times that of Norway (161pm).

In terms of vaccines and re-opening Ireland, Norway and Denmark are handling it pretty well. The continued indoor vaccine certs and mask use are essential. We are almost there.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=gbr&areas=isr&areas=usa&areas=eue&areas=can&areas=chn&areas=ind&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=1

Deeper Blue

Is this the same Nolan that came up with the models which were a million miles off? If he told me the sky was blue I'd have to go outside and check

B2021M

It's incredible that no matter what date is picked this charade starts 8 or 10 days before the selected date....!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017978#Comment_118017978

Yep I agree. even Walter freeman Jackson was seen as a visionary.. and the Medics of the day ignored johns snow on the famous Cholera outbreak. The same medics refuted the claims that scurvy was a nutritional deficiency despite the clear evidence to back it up.. why?? because weak crews were expendable, compliant and easier to manage. History of full of doctors ignoring the truth for personal gain and political leverage.

floorpie

Even Philip Nolan doesn't understand what "90% reduction in rates" means. He says it's 90% protection as if it's a probability, amazing.

Dempo1

Claire Byrne: 50% of hospitalisations are vacinated according to Ann O Connor (Head of Spin HSE) earlier this morning (unless I've heard that wrong)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017817#Comment_118017817

And that's the one difference between the two countries: opposition to vaccines in the US, while I believe rather exaggerated, is a real thing, but you'd swear there was widespread opposition to vaccination in Ireland the way the media goes on. Pat Kenny at it the other day, Joe Duffy saying the unvaccinated should stay at home the other week. Callum Robinson vilified.

We see calls for restrictions to be placed on the unvaccinated on this thread. The media is incredibly powerful. It can make people think things that they would, I hope, never have previously thought, i.e. that locking their fellow man out of society is a good thing.

Dempo1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018056#Comment_118018056

Absolutely agree 👍

B2021M

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018014#Comment_118018014

Doesn't Sweden have a higher proportion of over 65s than us which would explain some of the difference? And maybe even a higher proportion again of over 80s where most deaths occur?