Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Doctor Jimbob

stateofflux wrote: »

Indo has a story saying MM rang Nicola Sturgeon about Delta.

“I spoke (on Tuesday) with Nicola Sturgeon First Minister of Scotland and she used a very telling phrase. She said Delta will rip through an unvaccinated population." -MM

Sturgeon has Zero medical background. My 15 year old springer spaniel would know as much about epidemiological forecasting. She is a serious hardliner, not surprised she got a call.

We don’t have an unvaccinated population Micheál.

We’re being led by a fúcking imbecile.

Larbre34

On that Scotland issue. 2,000 or so travelled to London for the game V England, either to attend the match, or to watch it elsewhere in the City with others.

1,200 of them are now infected.

Say what you like, this bugger is infectious like wildfire. I don't entertain anyone who uses deaths as a metric of success, but it would be churlish to ignore the risk to our hospitals of an explosion of cases once again.

funnydoggy

https://twitter.com/robertburke84/status/1410198070718042112

:pac: :pac:

funnydoggy

Also:

RTÉ to cut €1.5 million from news and current affairs budget as part of cost cutting effort:
https://www.thejournal.ie/rte-news-current-affairs-budget-cuts-5481738-Jun2021/

Can only be a good thing!

HerrKapitan

TomSweeney wrote: »

How will they justify winter lockdowns with the vaccination rates as they will be ?

The rising tide of people in need of boosters.

Murph85

This image sums up the situation pretty well...

1992ChainGang

September or beyond....:rolleyes:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-would-have-recommended-indoor-dining-stay-closed-until-end-of-september-or-beyondbut-for-vaccine-pass-says-cmo-40598801.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=seeding&fbclid=IwAR3bGYC2gNMZ1KNplYLOT7eP-2b_p7Z5oIHTEbzPiLwwrX2-p6TSEtULqUE

keano_afc

Aren't we so lucky to have NPHET.

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1410251942991904769?s=20

PTH2009

Larbre34 wrote: »

On that Scotland issue. 2,000 or so travelled to London for the game V England, either to attend the match, or to watch it elsewhere in the City with others.

1,200 of them are now infected.

Say what you like, this bugger is infectious like wildfire. I don't entertain anyone who uses deaths as a metric of success, but it would be churlish to ignore the risk to our hospitals of an explosion of cases once again.

Great that will add fuel to the fire for the pro restrictions lot

1992ChainGang

1992ChainGang wrote: »

September or beyond....:rolleyes:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-would-have-recommended-indoor-dining-stay-closed-until-end-of-september-or-beyondbut-for-vaccine-pass-says-cmo-40598801.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=seeding&fbclid=IwAR3bGYC2gNMZ1KNplYLOT7eP-2b_p7Z5oIHTEbzPiLwwrX2-p6TSEtULqUE

This is the worst part:

Dr Tony Holohan told a briefing on Wednesday the Delta wave “is coming, we know it’s coming” and that it will not be over within four weeks.

Yet no imagination taken by NPHET or the Government in the weeks leading up to what was an inevitable decision by them. No pass created. Nothing.

Instead, an 11th-hour meeting and something or other to be decided within 3-weeks.

It's a total lack of leadership and creativity.

It's infuriating. :mad:

Doctor Jimbob

1992ChainGang wrote: »

September or beyond....:rolleyes:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-would-have-recommended-indoor-dining-stay-closed-until-end-of-september-or-beyondbut-for-vaccine-pass-says-cmo-40598801.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=seeding&fbclid=IwAR3bGYC2gNMZ1KNplYLOT7eP-2b_p7Z5oIHTEbzPiLwwrX2-p6TSEtULqUE

Cases. Cases cases cases. Not a fecking mention of the numbers that matter - hospitalisations and deaths. I thought we moved on from the fixation on cases once the most vulnerable were vaccinated?

Someone should tell the clown to shut up about cases and give a proper explanation for his nonsensical stance on antigen testing.

Murph85

Open up, if the numbers are bad, lockdown again to current level. Its certainly better than the farce they came up with yesterday... yoh see after a year, they still think there are easy options or a lightbulb moment is just around the corner with an easy way out...

TomTomTim

1992ChainGang wrote: »

September or beyond....:rolleyes:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-would-have-recommended-indoor-dining-stay-closed-until-end-of-september-or-beyondbut-for-vaccine-pass-says-cmo-40598801.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=seeding&fbclid=IwAR3bGYC2gNMZ1KNplYLOT7eP-2b_p7Z5oIHTEbzPiLwwrX2-p6TSEtULqUE

If this does happen, I'd be seriously concerned about our freedoms in the long run, as there's no possible way to end this based on the incredibly high standards they've set for freedom. They can constantly use fear and fear alone to keep us in our place.

Whiplash85

This should be a penalty kick now to get Antigen in. When that happens the fixation on cases and modelling will be over.

Rosita

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We don’t have an unvaccinated population Micheál.

.

You're hardly claiming that everyone's been vaccinated?

HerrKapitan

TomTomTim wrote: »

If this does happen, I'd be seriously concerned about our freedoms in the long run, as there's no possible way to end this based on the incredibly high standards they've set for freedom. They can constantly use fear and fear alone to keep us in our place.

This is more for the King Mob and Dohnjoe forum.

landofthetree

We arent going back to normal till 95% of people from aged 0+ are vaccinated if we let Nphet stay in charge.

SAGE in the UK are already pushing for it.

We are in a very bad place.

Doctor Jimbob

Rosita wrote: »

You're hardly claiming that everyone's been vaccinated?

Correct, I’m not.

stateofflux

Larbre34 wrote: »

On that Scotland issue. 2,000 or so travelled to London for the game V England, either to attend the match, or to watch it elsewhere in the City with others.

1,200 of them are now infected.

Say what you like, this bugger is infectious like wildfire. I don't entertain anyone who uses deaths as a metric of success, but it would be churlish to ignore the risk to our hospitals of an explosion of cases once again.

The point is we have not seen accurate risk forecasting against the volume of Vaccinations.

Case numbers mean sweet FA to me unless they are hospitalizations.

There has to be proportionality here, plus Logic and common sense. None of these 3 things are on display with recent govt announcements. I simply don't buy it without more data / proof.

is_that_so

1992ChainGang wrote: »

September or beyond....:rolleyes:

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-would-have-recommended-indoor-dining-stay-closed-until-end-of-september-or-beyondbut-for-vaccine-pass-says-cmo-40598801.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=seeding&fbclid=IwAR3bGYC2gNMZ1KNplYLOT7eP-2b_p7Z5oIHTEbzPiLwwrX2-p6TSEtULqUE

Things to be grateful for?

M_Murphy57

keano_afc wrote: »

Aren't we so lucky to have NPHET.

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1410251942991904769?s=20

Blackmailing people into taking vaccines is another way to put it.

Holding business owners livelihoods hostage to force the government to implement vaccine discrimination is another again.

UK reporting 26,068 new cases of COVID-19 with an additional 14 deaths.

Taking population into account, that's the equivalent of approx. 2,000 cases here and 1 death. And they are several weeks ahead of us with 95% of new cases being the Indian Variant.

We really are being WAY too cautious!

frink

Got my 1st dose vaccine this morning and grateful for it. Following the announcement yesterday, I had to ask myself what is the point

Quags

keano_afc wrote: »

Aren't we so lucky to have NPHET.

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1410251942991904769?s=20

My god, they really are trying to destroy the country

the kelt

frink wrote: »

Got my 1st dose vaccine this morning and grateful for it. Following the announcement yesterday, I had to ask myself what is the point

Got my second yesterday and said to the nurse while getting it "is there much point in bothering?"

She laughed and said "if only i had a euro for everyone thats said that to me today id be a wealthy woman going home!"

keano_afc

Quags wrote: »

My god, they really are trying to destroy the country

He doesnt see an issue with the death of the pub trade. And he's in charge of the country, so we're all screwed.

eastie17

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Cases. Cases cases cases. Not a fecking mention of the numbers that matter - hospitalisations and deaths. I thought we moved on from the fixation on cases once the most vulnerable were vaccinated?

Someone should tell the clown to shut up about cases and give a proper explanation for his nonsensical stance on antigen testing.

We did, until it didnt suit anymore it seems to me

gozunda

Responder XY wrote: »

I started to try and re-model the 700k figure in 3 months - I heard someone on the radio (might have been Sam McConkey, but not 100% sure) say that the basis was a doubling every 10 days of Delta cases as that was observed once in some part of the UK. So I started there. Then I finished, because that's all they seem to have done.

Once they publish the list of assumptions I'm expecting it will be very short. It's completely outlandish to say cases will double every 10 days for 3 months and nothing will change! Clearly that's not going to happen! Takes no account of vaccinated people, takes no account of seasonality, takes no account that during those 3 months more people will get vaccinated, takes no account of the fact that even if we started to see doubling every 10 days, behaviour would very quickly adopt in the population.
I'm so disgusted that analysis like that even got presented. If that happened in the private sector you'd never get to present analysis again.

Afaik vaccination and transmissibility data were used.

I don't know of you've seen the brief on the modelling but it details but five different scenarios were modeled "with two fundamental types of assumption, on indoor social mixing and transmission advantage" Vaccination data was also included

The vaccination programme is included in the model according to the latest available estimates of vaccine supply and administration, and published estimates of vaccine effectiveness in preventing infection and severe disease.

Table 1 summarises the mean case counts, admissions, and deaths for each scenario.
It is noteworthy across all scenarios that case counts rise very slowly during July 2021. However, the seeds of future growth are sown at this time, and case counts increase exponentially through August
2021 until a combination of vaccine-induced and infection-induced immunity slows growth through September and October 2021.
The infections occur largely in the young, unvaccinated population, but as the force of infection grows, a significant number of infections also occur in older, vaccinated people. The optimistic scenario is associated with 81,000 (23,000 – 231,000) cases between 1 July 2021 and 30 September, 1,530 (1,400-1,660) admissions to hospital, 195 (150-250) admissions to ICU, and 250 (215-290)
deaths. While 75% of the cases are in people under 40 years of age, 99.9% of the deaths are in
people over 40 years of age.

The first central and subsequent scenarios see higher case counts and significantly more people requiring hospital and critical care.
There is an additional important uncertainty in relation to these model scenarios. The latter part of the infection curve, beyond September 2021, is sustained by infection in children and adolescents, who are not currently eligible for vaccination. If children are less susceptible, and/or less likely to transmit infection, or a decision is made to vaccinate those under 16 years of age, the wave of infection will peak earlier and decline more rapidly

More here:

https://www.rte.ie/documents/news/2021/06/138789-3fe6b992-45e8-4a1c-b4c2-5e4a6131ad53.pdf

I believe MM said the data would be made available for those who wished to review it fully. Cant find the link I saw earlier about this

Hellrazer

Everyone just needs to email / ring / text their local TDs - then if there is a protest join it - this will be the only way we get our freedom back.
Every person in employment in hospitality should be in the city centre this Saturday - show this shower of eejits that they work for us not the other way around.

Vicxas

I've never once emailed a TD before, but this is disgusting.