Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Jinglejangle69

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Why is it we're getting our knickers in a twist over this exactly? Because the under 35's won't be able to go to a restaurant and sit inside for a few more weeks? Is that it?

That really doesn't seem like that great a sacrifice tbh.

The way some are going on here you'd swear that they'd announced that u35's were going to be in indefinite solitary confinement.

Yeah that's it.

You're right and the rest of us are all idiots.

Weldone.

Just worth putting COVID-19 deaths in context.

In the UK, for instance, currently 10x more people are dying from flu and pneumonia in the UK compared to COVID-19.

Wales went an entire week without any Covid deaths for the first time since the pandemic began, official figures show.

In the same seven day period, the week ending on June 18, only one in 100 deaths in England and Wales were attributed to the virus.

The figures from the Office for National Statistics show that 1.1 per cent of the 9,459 deaths during that week involved coronavirus symptoms.

Deaths linked to flu and pneumonia were 10 times the 102 Covid fatalities.

Despite an increase in cases, the amount of people dying from Covid is declining as the number of death certificates that mention the virus are lower than they were nine months ago, before the second wave arrived.

Society is being paralyzed by fear about COVID-19.

These out of context death figures really must be considered. We need to learn to live with risk and with the virus. It's as simple as that.

MrMusician18

facehugger99 wrote: »

2/10

Go on them, explain why this is such a huge problem. I'm failing to see, in the context of everything that has happened over the last year and a half, how this is a great disaster.

Can't go inside in a pub or restaurant for another few weeks. Aside from publicans and restauranteurs who would be understandably upset, why this is a huge problem.

Doctor Jimbob

beaz2018 wrote: »

Nolan has a 36 tweet thread now on the modeling. “Throw enough detail at them, they won’t read it and will assume it’s right”

Having a read of it and while I still think there are some overly negative assumptions being made, the man deserves credit for taking the time to explain the reasoning behind it all.

Xaniaj

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Why is it we're getting our knickers in a twist over this exactly? Because the under 35's won't be able to go to a restaurant and sit inside for a few more weeks? Is that it?

That really doesn't seem like that great a sacrifice tbh.

The way some are going on here you'd swear that they'd announced that u35's were going to be in indefinite solitary confinement.

Do you seriously think it's because u35s can't have a meal inside?

It's the ridiculous models that this is based on. It's the ridiculous situation that u35s may very well be OK to serve you in a restaurant but would not be able to use that restaurant for a personal meal.

It's the continued decimation of the hospitality sector. It's the hypocrisy of some of the rules (you can go to a wedding with 50 strangers but can't have an indoor drink with your partner).

It's the absolute spineless 'leadership' that this government have shown over the last few days.

This is far greater than 'a meal inside'.

namloc1980

beaz2018 wrote: »

Nolan has a 36 tweet thread now on the modeling. “Throw enough detail at them, they won’t read it and will assume it’s right”

Did he mention it takes no account of the vaccination plan and NIAC recommendations, and as such isn't worth a shiite?

martingriff

gozunda wrote: »

Looks like claim is based on this tweet

https://twitter.com/McConnellDaniel/status/1410272784127778816?s=19

So apparently and allegedly. I can't find MM saying that tbh. Maybe he did or maybe him or the journo have it mixed up.

Thing is not sure how it stands up to a fact check - because the announcement by NIAC of AZ / J&J being made available to the under 40s was only reported on the 28/06/21. The same day the briefing letter of NPHET's recommendations was sent by the CMO to the Government. I would presume the models had been completed at that point and as the CMO stated didn't include the additional vaccines only just announced for the under 40s

Not the first time I've seen that Indo hack - tweeting 'he said / she said' type stuff that's nearly impossible to verify. You nearly think its for clicks or something ...

I can see MM saying anything in fairness and framing so others will not blame him. Should we not now get a new model done.

Jinglejangle69

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Go on them, explain why this is such a huge problem. I'm failing to see, in the context of everything that has happened over the last year and a half, how this is a great disaster.

Can't go inside in a pub or restaurant for another few weeks. Aside from publicans and restauranteurs who would be understandably upset, why this is a huge problem.

Another few weeks.

The point is its been a year and a half of this.

At some point they have to give it up.

We are now the last to open indoor dining in Europe.

It's not about the dining specifically, but the fact we are the last.

Francie Barrett

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Can we stop driving please, what level of road deaths are acceptable....

Alcohol kills 1000 people a year, smoking kills 6000 people year. They'll need to go as well as motor vehicles.

JeffKenna

Xaniaj wrote: »

Do you seriously think it's because u35s can't have a meal inside?

It's the ridiculous models that this is based on. It's the ridiculous situation that u35s may very well be OK to serve you in a restaurant but would not be able to use that restaurant for a personal meal.

It's the continued decimation of the hospitality sector. It's the hypocrisy of some of the rules (you can go to a wedding with 50 strangers but can't have an indoor drink with your partner).

It's the absolute spineless 'leadership' that this government have shown over the last few days.

This is far greater than 'a meal inside'.

As someone getting married in the next few months, please leave weddings out of this!

Xaniaj

JeffKenna wrote: »

As someone getting married in the next few months, please leave weddings out of this!

I'm seriously glad you can have 50 (genuinely!)

Sweet.Science

How can they give these predictions yet allow weddings increase to 50

Actually based off their modelling we should be in a level 5 lockdown

Doctor Jimbob

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Having a read of it and while I still think there are some overly negative assumptions being made, the man deserves credit for taking the time to explain the reasoning behind it all.

Not at all.

I'm unimpressed. Deliberately publishing complex data models to nourish the illusion there is some greater legitimacy to his argument.

Facts are facts. It was these very models that were used by NPHET in March, predicting enormous case loads and hospitalizations at this phase of the year. Clearly, these models aren't that effective nor accurate. They also depend on assumptions. Again, these depend.

What we do know is that the Indian Variant is rampant in the UK, that they are several weeks ahead of us, and that no such threat of overwhelmed hospitals has existed or is likely to exist. That is real world data, independent of academic models. Israel, too, is an example of real world data.

I'll trust real world data over academic models any day of the week.

And you do not require a PhD in statistics to come to the obvious conclusion that NPHET are being overly pessimistic.

He is posting these tweets to somehow legitimize his fearmongering nonsense. It's nothing more than feeding his own ego, knowing full well the scale of public loathing that now exist for the NPHET organism.

Ballynally

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0630/1232241-covid-ireland-figures/

Ireland is the only country in the EU not ready to introduce the DCC.
It was because of the HSE hack.
Funny, because i remember some official saying the DCC implementation was not in jeopardy because it was run from outside the HSE.
This was said at the beginning of june after the EU made a statement indicating july1 as the official start of the cert but urged countries to start sooner which many did.
Weve had over a month to prepare. Now they are hiding behind the HSE hack.
Nothing indicating that they are actually ready to implement it.
I havent received any notification regarding proof of vaccination.
"We'll look at it closer to the date of july19".
All leading up to a bottleneck situation.

martingriff

Xaniaj wrote: »

Do you seriously think it's because u35s can't have a meal inside?

It's the ridiculous models that this is based on. It's the ridiculous situation that u35s may very well be OK to serve you in a restaurant but would not be able to use that restaurant for a personal meal.

It's the continued decimation of the hospitality sector. It's the hypocrisy of some of the rules (you can go to a wedding with 50 strangers but can't have an indoor drink with your partner).

It's the absolute spineless 'leadership' that this government have shown over the last few days.

This is far greater than 'a meal inside'.

In fairness it was not because of this as this was only known a bit ago. The rest I agree with. I am going to Killarney in a week and a half and because I am booked in I can eat inside. I am also going to cinema next week to see Fast & Furious (whatever number) which will be 2 and half hours where once I am in I will be able to take off mt mask and eat and drink for the whole lot if I want

MrMusician18

Xaniaj wrote: »

Do you seriously think it's because u35s can't have a meal inside?

It's the ridiculous models that this is based on. It's the ridiculous situation that u35s may very well be OK to serve you in a restaurant but would not be able to use that restaurant for a personal meal.

It's the continued decimation of the hospitality sector. It's the hypocrisy of some of the rules (you can go to a wedding with 50 strangers but can't have an indoor drink with your partner).

It's the absolute spineless 'leadership' that this government have shown over the last few days.

This is far greater than 'a meal inside'.

Bull****. This has nothing to do with the decimation of the hospitality or any other sector. The only people that care about that are those directly affected.
The measures taken by government have always been about reducing mixing in risky environments. This gives rise to so called contradictory regulations but this has been explained thousands of times on thread now. Lack of understanding at this stage can only be described as willful tbh.
This is about people having a whinge that the pubs won't be back to normal

beaz2018

On the way into blanch shopping center there is a large sign which reads in large font "thank you HSE". Took a closer look earlier and in small writing there is a HSE logo in the corner.

Having spent time in China where I used to laugh daily at the CCPs news channel, it really is hard to beleive this level of prooganda has reached our shores.

martingriff

namloc1980 wrote: »

Did he mention it takes no account of the vaccination plan and NIAC recommendations, and as such isn't worth a shiite?

In fairness it is not like Nephet are trying to keep this quiet so at least they seem to be able to tell some truth. Also good on him for showing whatever they used. Again damned if he does damned if he doesn't.

Buford T Justice

Heads up, the grim reaper George Lee now is on RTE news

Doctor Jimbob

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not at all.

I'm unimpressed. Deliberately publishing complex data models to nourish the illusion there is some greater legitimacy to his argument.

Facts are facts. It was these very models that were used by NPHET in March, predicting enormous case loads and hospitalizations at this phase of the year. Clearly, these models aren't that effective nor accurate. They also depend on assumptions. Again, these depend.

What we do know is that the Indian Variant is rampant in the UK, that they are several weeks ahead of us, and that no such threat of overwhelmed hospitals has existed or is likely to exist. That is real world data, independent of academic models. Israel, too, is an example of real world data.

I'll trust real world data over academic models any day of the week.

And you do not require a PhD in statistics to come to the obvious conclusion that NPHET are being overly pessimistic.

He is posting these tweets to somehow legitimize his fearmongering nonsense. It's nothing more than feeding his own ego, knowing full well the scale of public loathing that now exist for the NPHET organism.

I don’t disagree with that at all but people wanted the reasoning to be explained and Nolan is making an effort to do that. It’s better than Holohan’s “how dare you question me” attitude.

UrbanFret

Buford T Justice wrote: »

Heads up, the grim reaper George Lee now is on RTE news

His hard on has returned. Hes absolutely buzzing.;)

normanoffside

beaz2018 wrote: »

Nolan has a 36 tweet thread now on the modeling. “Throw enough detail at them, they won’t read it and will assume it’s right”

TLDR

namloc1980

martingriff wrote: »

In fairness it is not like Nephet are trying to keep this quiet so at least they seem to be able to tell some truth. Also good on him for showing whatever they used. Again damned if he does damned if he doesn't.

But the model outcomes are useless because they don't reflect the actual reality. Absolutely useless yet crucial decisions are being made on the basis of flawed data.

normanoffside

namloc1980 wrote: »

Did he mention it takes no account of the vaccination plan and NIAC recommendations, and as such isn't worth a shiite?

Apparently we need to keep locked down because vaccines are only 95% effective and 5% of the vaccinated are still vulnerable.

With this mentality it can never end.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

sp00k

normanoffside wrote: »

Apparently we need to keep locked down because vaccines are only 95% effective and 5% of the vaccinated are still vulnerable.

With this mentality it can never end.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

People over 70 are vulnerable to a lot of things other than covid also. We should just all stay at home till every disease on the planet has been eradicated.

lawred2

normanoffside wrote: »

Apparently we need to keep locked down because vaccines are only 95% effective and 5% of the vaccinated are still vulnerable.

With this mentality it can never end.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

Well that's just plain bonkers.

ACitizenErased

There's actually so much wrong with that vaccine slide it's scary. 95% efficacy does not mean 5% of people are at risk. At all.

PTH2009

Don't be questioing our betters

normanoffside

sp00k wrote: »

People over 70 are vulnerable to a lot of things other than covid also. We should just all stay at home till every disease on the planet has been eradicated.

That seems to be the thinking

For Forks Sake

normanoffside wrote: »

Holonez has used his world renowned models to declare the best ping pong player of all time so he can't be wrong.

I've sold badly modeled statistics to Brockway, Ogdenville, and North Haverbrook, and, by gum, it put them on the map