Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

gozunda

martingriff wrote: »

I can see MM saying anything in fairness and framing so others will not blame him. Should we not now get a new model done.

Well tbf no - its not MM making the claim. I did a quick search and can't find any cabinet minutes or even Catherine Martin who allegedly asked the question according to one story. There's another news report on this - but it seems to based on the info in that tweet. The journo who made the claim needs to back it up if its true.

But yeah I suppose no harm to throw the whole lot back through for another run. But afaik how the additional vaccines are to be distributed is yet to be decided. The other issue may be uptake - how many under 40s want AZ or J&J considering?

plastic glass

normanoffside wrote: »

Apparently we need to keep locked down because vaccines are only 95% effective and 5% of the vaccinated are still vulnerable.

With this mentality it can never end.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

This is extremely worrying that a senior member of nephet has said this. Partially because this is not accurate and partially because even if it was accurate 95% is actually amazing

titan18

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Bull****. This has nothing to do with the decimation of the hospitality or any other sector. The only people that care about that are those directly affected.
The measures taken by government have always been about reducing mixing in risky environments. This gives rise to so called contradictory regulations but this has been explained thousands of times on thread now. Lack of understanding at this stage can only be described as willful tbh.
This is about people having a whinge that the pubs won't be back to normal

Where do you think the money will come from to pay for all of this? Theres either serious cuts in future cos of the debt we're building up or serious tax hikes. Every day locked down is another day of pain in the longer term.

I don't even drink and have zero interest in heading to a pub (and I'm vaccinated so I'm ok anyway) and I still think this is ridiculous. We're never going to reopen anything longer term with this sh1te from NPHET and our government.

normanoffside

Nolan has also confirmed that the model he is using is indeed the one compiled by the snooker rakings student.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410315619656949765

Ballynally

eskimohunt wrote: »

Not at all.

I'm unimpressed. Deliberately publishing complex data models to nourish the illusion there is some greater legitimacy to his argument.

What we do know is that the Indian Variant is rampant in the UK, that they are several weeks ahead of us, and that no such threat of overwhelmed hospitals has existed or is likely to exist. That is real world data, independent of academic models. Israel, too, is an example of real world data.

I'll trust real world data over academic models any day of the week.

.

I have to somewhat disagree with you.
They are not using complex data models but instead simplistic representations of assumptions based on dubious data points and speculative multipliers.
Any statistician/ data analyser will hold his nose if presented by such a dubious presentation.
The models are deliberately simplistic to make a nice powerpoint presentation to those in power so their little brains wont be challenged by the actual variability and interaction of the complex parameters involved.
In other words, something no academic would present to his peers.
Politicians want clear cut answers to simple questions.
They want a direction with options.
So does the public.
A complex, interactive, variable and changing model simply wont do.
So you give them 5 simple ones with a different outcome.
Just enough that it gives the illusion of clarity and variability.
They'll pick one of the middle options as the most likely (as the jeweller says).
Very sensible.
Little do they know that other models are not even brought to table.
But the person who presents them does.
He has done the picking..

martingriff

gozunda wrote: »

Well tbf no - its not MM making the claim. I did a quick search and can't find any cabinet minutes or even Catherine Martin who allegedly asked the question according to one story. There's another news report on this - but it seems to based on the info in that tweet. The journo who made the claim needs to back it up if its true.

But yeah I suppose no harm to throw the whole lot back through for another run. But afaik how the additional vaccines are to be distributed is yet to be decided. The other issue may be uptake - how many under 40s want AZ or J&J considering?

Well my point was I could see MM could say this not that he did. I agree we need more on this before we can say for certain either way. Also I can't really see a politican asking that question either

Thespoofer

Guys a bit off topic and just a bit of an observation from around areas I work/live.

I've noticed more and more pubs ( non restaurant/no beer garden ) opening and serving away clearly had enough now.

I've even seen the guards driving past the pubs with the front door open and just drive on,,,clearly people have had enough now and theres a silent revolt now going on.

Zebra3

Thespoofer wrote: »

Guys a bit off topic and just a bit of an observation from around areas I work/live.

I've noticed more and more pubs ( non restaurant/no beer garden ) opening and serving away clearly had enough now.

I've even seen the guards driving past the pubs with the front door open and just drive on,,,clearly people have had enough now and theres a silent revolt now going on.

You’ll need a better username to convince us that is happening.

namloc1980

normanoffside wrote: »

Apparently we need to keep locked down because vaccines are only 95% effective and 5% of the vaccinated are still vulnerable.

With this mentality it can never end.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

Are NPHET going for a zero death strategy from Covid? If so, we're going to be at this for years and years while the rest of the world will have all but forgotten about Covid. This is an extraordinary statement from a member of NPHET and very worrying.

ACitizenErased

"TAOISEACH Micheál Martin wrongly told Cabinet colleagues that updated guidance on the National Vaccination Programme was factored into dire Nphet forecasts about the impact of the Delta wave.

Mr Martin told a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday that warnings from public health officials that over 2,000 people could die in the coming months because of the Delta wave was based on new advice to expand the use of certain Covid-19 vaccines on younger age cohorts and thus potentially expedite the vaccination of people under 40.

Independent.ie understands Tourism Minister Catherine Martin specifically asked the Taoiseach if the new advice from the National Immunisation Advisory Council (Niac) was factored into the forecasts."

"Mr Martin responded by telling the Cabinet meeting Nphet’s projections had accounted for the significant changes in the National Vaccination Programme."

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/taoiseach-wrongly-told-cabinet-that-updated-vaccination-advice-was-factored-into-nphets-dire-delta-forecast-40600175.html

jusvi2001

I am not surprised.

Ireland not ready to comply with EU travel cert introduction tomorrow

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0630/1232241-covid-ireland-figures/

martingriff

normanoffside wrote: »

Apparently we need to keep locked down because vaccines are only 95% effective and 5% of the vaccinated are still vulnerable.

With this mentality it can never end.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

No what is means is that everytime it it given to a person it has a chance of 95% effective not if you have a 100 people and the first 95 are effective the other 5 are in deep dodo. Its the same as saying a coin can be head or tails 50% of the time. but that means per toss. you can toss 6 times and have 6 heads

Oscar Bravo

Thespoofer wrote: »

Guys a bit off topic and just a bit of an observation from around areas I work/live.

I've noticed more and more pubs ( non restaurant/no beer garden ) opening and serving away clearly had enough now.

I've even seen the guards driving past the pubs with the front door open and just drive on,,,clearly people have had enough now and theres a silent revolt now going on.

Ive seen none with the door open but yes many have the regulars back in now . Great to get a decent Guinness again.

Red Silurian

martingriff wrote: »

In fairness it was not because of this as this was only known a bit ago. The rest I agree with. I am going to Killarney in a week and a half and because I am booked in I can eat inside. I am also going to cinema next week to see Fast & Furious (whatever number) which will be 2 and half hours where once I am in I will be able to take off mt mask and eat and drink for the whole lot if I want

Here's a thought... What if you changed a pubs description to cinema and showed a movie while serving drinks?

namloc1980

ACitizenErased wrote: »

"TAOISEACH Micheál Martin wrongly told Cabinet colleagues that updated guidance on the National Vaccination Programme was factored into dire Nphet forecasts about the impact of the Delta wave.

Mr Martin told a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday that warnings from public health officials that over 2,000 people could die in the coming months because of the Delta wave was based on new advice to expand the use of certain Covid-19 vaccines on younger age cohorts and thus potentially expedite the vaccination of people under 40.

Independent.ie understands Tourism Minister Catherine Martin specifically asked the Taoiseach if the new advice from the National Immunisation Advisory Council (Niac) was factored into the forecasts."

"Mr Martin responded by telling the Cabinet meeting Nphet’s projections had accounted for the significant changes in the National Vaccination Programme."

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/taoiseach-wrongly-told-cabinet-that-updated-vaccination-advice-was-factored-into-nphets-dire-delta-forecast-40600175.html

He should resign.

Thespoofer

Thespoofer wrote: »

Guys a bit off topic and just a bit of an observation from around areas I work/live.

I've noticed more and more pubs ( non restaurant/no beer garden ) opening and serving away clearly had enough now.

I've even seen the guards driving past the pubs with the front door open and just drive on,,,clearly people have had enough now and theres a silent revolt now going on.

Thank goodness for that.

The traditional small business owner needs to do what they need to do. If I were them, I'd do the same.

Father Hernandez

https://twitter.com/kevdoyle_indo/status/1410336298284486656?s=21

Surely he has to resign.

Making life changing decisions based on outdated data?

martingriff

namloc1980 wrote: »

But the model outcomes are useless because they don't reflect the actual reality. Absolutely useless yet crucial decisions are being made on the basis of flawed data.

And that is why new models should be done up and the Covid group ( am guessing this is the 3 leader, minister of health maybe Finance minister?) should have asked for it before making any decisions

Jizique

[Deleted User] wrote: »

All the deaths are absolutely terrible but in case it escaped your notice, we've vaccinated most of the vulnerable groups and it might also shock you to know that people sadly die for one reason or another every day of the week. None of us are immortal, but we've endured 1.5 years of our lives at a standstill. ENOUGH!!!!

So where are Europe going wrong and Ireland and NPHET going right so???

Did your great bullshít detector of a journalist, ever bother his arse to investigate the 4500 untested people that were moved from hospitals to nursing homes???

Indeed; what next, will the govt pass a law banning death from any cause?
Continue vaccinating and open up to f&ck

_Kaiser_

Heave starting?

TAOISEACH Micheál Martin wrongly told Cabinet colleagues that updated guidance on the National Vaccination Programme was factored into dire Nphet forecasts about the impact of the Delta wave.

Mr Martin told a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday that warnings from public health officials that over 2,000 people could die in the coming months because of the Delta wave was based on new advice to expand the use of certain Covid-19 vaccines on younger age cohorts and thus potentially expedite the vaccination of people under 40.
.
.
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Three Cabinet sources confirmed Mr Martin told the crucial meeting on indoor dining that Nphet’s projections took into account the changes to the vaccine roll-out.

However, a spokesperson for Mr Martin would not respond to questions about whether or not the Taoiseach told Cabinet that new Niac guidance was included in the forecasts.
.
.
.
Spokespersons for both Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan would not comment on whether the Taoiseach’s comments factored into their decision to delay the reopening of indoor dining

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/taoiseach-wrongly-told-cabinet-that-updated-vaccination-advice-was-factored-into-nphets-dire-delta-forecast-40600175.html

Pretty strong accusation, despite the attempts to again hide behind NPHET.

namloc1980

Father Hernandez wrote: »

https://twitter.com/kevdoyle_indo/status/1410336298284486656?s=21

Surely he has to resign.

Making life changing decisions based on outdated data?

Gross incompetence or deliberate? Either way he should resign.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

Did they? Tbh I dont see that referenced?

That comes across as a barely disguised- "I'm a PhD researcher - so there tweet"

The replies below, one guy, Mark, took a FOI request on Nphet's data-modelling. One of the four guys who developed the modeling system had previous papers published on Snooker Rankings and Fantasy Football. Seems a bit of a leap to suddenly make a jump to predicting the amount of viral infections. Now if NPHET had looked at various data models and carefully chose one, then fair enough, but they have provided no transparency on any of their processes.


There is also no record of their expenses which considering they are an instrument of the Irish government where there is a lot of focus on at the moment, it sounds alarm bells
https://twitter.com/EwanMacKenna/status/1361990777212178434


https://twitter.com/MarmaladeMax/status/1409797586563837954

martingriff

Zebra3 wrote: »

You’ll need a better username to convince us that is happening.

In fairness this has been happening for months but are now more open about it. Food probably east to take away and.or pints in glasses you can take away and sit down outside

ACitizenErased

The data should never have been sent to cabinet if it was outdated. That's scandalous.

martingriff

Red Silurian wrote: »

Here's a thought... What if you changed a pubs description to cinema and showed a movie while serving drinks?

Hmm you might have a business venture there

Edit I want at least a mention when you make it big

Thespoofer

Zebra3 wrote: »

You’ll need a better username to convince us that is happening.

It seemed a good name at the time !

aziz

Father Hernandez wrote: »

https://twitter.com/kevdoyle_indo/status/1410336298284486656?s=21

Surely he has to resign.

Making life changing decisions based on outdated data?

Will he though

Like **** he will

Just pass the buck to someone/something else

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

Gross incompetence or deliberate? Either way he should resign.

Though we'd all like it, there is no chance in hell that Mike Martin will resign.

CruelSummer

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1410337625735581700?s=21

I have no words…

Jizique

martingriff wrote: »

And that is why new models should be done up and the Covid group ( am guessing this is the 3 leader, minister of health maybe Finance minister?) should have asked for it before making any decisions

That’s why Nolan is out on Twitter defending his screwed up model again