Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

gozunda

normanoffside wrote: »

No, but he hasn't even graduated yet. Maybe you missed that point

George Lee once told us these models were designed by the best Mathematicians.

You mean this guy?

PhD Candidate in Mathematical Modelling of Social Spreading Phenomena on Networks

With this model?

Using daily Covid-19 case data, the code fits a generalized additive model (GAM) via a Bayesian framework before running simulations of the population-level susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model that is used by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG) reporting to the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET)

You know a lot about additive models (GAM) via Bayesian framework s?

MrMusician18

Deleted User wrote: »

It's kinda a no-brainer at this point. They could announce the re-opening of everything from Monday, and even if cases shot up to 10k a day a month later, they could just stand up, hands raised, and say "Folks, this is what you all wanted."

They can't do that. That would be irresponsible government.

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

People are so pissed off over this one, when the restrictions thread has the most thanked posts all on page 1 it is a little sample (or if modeled by Nphet it’s end of the world )

Everyone I’ve spoken too over the last day anecdotal I know is stunned by the carry on, now if it was all on dodgy data I think it’ll keep gaining traction.

But, in the middle of a pandemic, would Fianna Fail really try a leadership election?

I just cannot summon the thought of Michael Martin admitting he "misled" the public and therefore resigns as Taoiseach.

I could be wrong, but I just cannot (yet) see it happening.

bucketybuck

Sweet.Science wrote: »

In fairness there weren't given any time to dissect what NPHET presented them with

They are supposed to be in charge for ****s sake, if they wanted to take an extra day to look at the report then who was going to stop them?

Imagine where we could be if Meek Martin actually had a set of balls.

Zebra3

This all stinks.

Our glorious professionals using out of date data at the most important state meeting?

We’re meant to actually buy that? Sounds like a desperate attempt at a u-turn without admitting one.

If they wanna go with the former, it should be P45s all round. NPHET and Mehole. You’d be finished in a top private sector job if you were that inept.

Doctor Jimbob

MrMusician18 wrote: »

They can't do that. That would be irresponsible government.

I don’t disagree but what’s happening now is irresponsible government as well. They keep referring to what’s happening in Scotland - which Scotland don’t seem particularly concerned about.

elefant

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There's actually so much wrong with that vaccine slide it's scary. 95% efficacy does not mean 5% of people are at risk. At all.

This is a bonkers error for the chair of the modeling group to be tweeting out. It needs to be classified asap; the panic that could cause in people!

normanoffside

We really miss people like Vincent in the media

https://twitter.com/vincentbrowne/status/1410307797095522312

Sweet.Science

bucketybuck wrote: »

They are supposed to be in charge for ****s sake, if they wanted to take an extra day to look at the report then who was going to stop them?

Imagine where we could be if Meek Martin actually had a set of balls.

Agreed . The backlash has been huge in 24 hours though . I'm hopeful of it been made right soon

JeffKenna

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I agree. But what difference does the addition of the vaccinations make to the modelling?

That's the most valuable data, and I don't believe we yet have it.

The tweet seems to suggest that 95% of those vaccinated have protection with 5% still vunerable. If the number of people who have received the vaccine is wrong then the projections are wrong.

MrMusician18

gozunda wrote: »

You mean this guy?

PhD Candidate in Mathematical Modelling of Social Spreading Phenomena on Networks

With this model?



You know a lot about additive models (GAM) via Bayesian framework s?

Did you not know that he is running the statistics department at MIT in his spare time, in between posts on this thread

Did you not know Fields medal winner Normanoffside has over 400 citations of his paper on the Bayesian framework?

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It was erroneous.

Tony Holohan himself admitted it.

He did? Link please

titan18 wrote: »

You miss the whole it not taking into account the latest NIAC changes?

Nope. The fact is the Nphet model couldn't have included the latest NIAC changes with regard to additional vaccines being made to the under 40s - because the NIAC recommendations were only announced on the day the finalised Nphet briefing letter was sent (including details of the completed model) by the CMO to the Government

Red Silurian

normanoffside wrote: »

We really miss people like Vincent in the media

https://twitter.com/vincentbrowne/status/1410307797095522312

The modelling in November last year predicted between 100-150 deaths in January, as we know it was closer to 1,000

ACitizenErased

Red Silurian wrote: »

The modelling in November last year predicted between 100-150 deaths in January, as we know it was closer to 1,000

Modelling in November did not feature a new variant.

For Forks Sake

eskimohunt wrote: »

If I were a competent FF politician right now, I'd be making political moves.

Not necessarily for the leadership, preferable though that is, but because of how the measures are considered locally for many TDs.

Oxymoron alert.

Red Silurian

Red Silurian wrote: »

The modelling in November last year predicted between 100-150 deaths in January, as we know it was closer to 1,000

The modelling in March predicted far more cases/deaths in June/July -- and that turned out to be grossly wrong.

Doctor Jimbob

It’s telling that “NPHET got it wrong the other way too” is now being rolled out as a defence for their stance.

Hellrazer

Hellrazer wrote: »

He comes across as another one with no spine - he could have called on all his members and the Vintners etc to picket the Dail this weekend.

If I was in his position I would have put the gun to the governments head and said open by the 5th or we will bring Dublin to a standstill.


That's what this country needs - someone with a spine to stand up to these incompetent idiots.

I'll keep saying it, the Vintners and Restaurants should be saying "We're opening as scheduled come what may" and just see what happens.

A local pun landlord is fairly high up in one of the government parties. Pretty sad to see him show more loyalty to his party than his country or even to his family and staff.

For Forks Sake

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Oxymoron alert.

I plead guilty as charged!

CalamariFritti

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Why is it we're getting our knickers in a twist over this exactly? Because the under 35's won't be able to go to a restaurant and sit inside for a few more weeks? Is that it?

That really doesn't seem like that great a sacrifice tbh.

The way some are going on here you'd swear that they'd announced that u35's were going to be in indefinite solitary confinement.

it is just one aspect, one symptom of it.

It is infuriating that not once in this whole shambles, not once since March 2020, have I heard a statement of intent from the government or our health experts of how and when and under which criteria we can go back to normal and how we get there. No urgency at all. Happy to piss our money and our future into the wind so no blame can be laid on them for a single death.

I am usually not a cheerleaders for the UK but at least they seem to show some commitment to lead their country out of this catastrophe. There are clear statements of intent to end this as soon as humanly possible. And it rubs off thankfully. Without their courage and their intent there would be no data to look at. Like it or not currently the UK seem most likely to drag the rest kicking and screaming out of this,

There has to be a vision and a goal and a drive towards it. We can't have a friggin media battle every time we are supposed to get a tiny snippet of our freedoms back. We will tear ourselves apart as a country if this continues in that fashion.

Ballynally

Bsharp wrote: »

I couldn't see a reference to allowance for previous infections in his tweets, I'd like to know what number is assumed. Potentially a big range seeing as recorded cases are a lot lower than actual.

I quoted something from an actual report. It was one of the downloads offered in the link within the tweet.
I deliberately took the most technical one having sufficient knowledge of these matters.
You know pretty quick if something is presented clear and coherently.
Neither seems to be the case.

MrMusician18

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I don’t disagree but what’s happening now is irresponsible government as well. They keep referring to what’s happening in Scotland - which Scotland don’t seem particularly concerned about.

What exactly is irresponsible about restricting indoor hospitality to the vaccinated. I am genuinely having trouble understanding why this is considered a huge imposition (aside of course from the numerous cranks on thread who use any chink or crack to wedge their lever of opposition in).

I love the pub and the restaurant, probably more than most, but jaysus I'll live without sitting inside for a few more weeks (or months if required) until my turn comes around.

People need to get a grip here.

titan18

gozunda wrote: »

He did? Link please



Nope. The fact is the Nphet model couldn't have included the latest NIAC changes with regard to additional vaccines being made to the under 40s - because the NIAC recommendations were only announced on the day the finalised Nphet briefing letter was sent (including details of the completed model) by the CMO to the Government

Exactly, so it's outdated.

normanoffside

Red Silurian wrote: »

The modelling in November last year predicted between 100-150 deaths in January, as we know it was closer to 1,000

Exactly

Doctor Jimbob

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What exactly is irresponsible about restricting indoor hospitality to the vaccinated. I am genuinely having trouble understanding why this is considered a huge imposition (aside of course from the numerous cranks on thread who use any chink or crack to wedge their lever of opposition in).

I love the pub and the restaurant, probably more than most, but jaysus I'll live without sitting inside for a few more weeks (or months if required) until my turn comes around.

People need to get a grip here.

It’s irresponsible to keep people out of work and keep parts of society closed based on such flimsy grounds. They keep referring to the situation in Scotland (which Scotland aren’t worried about), and are going off a worst case scenario that involves 50% of our COVID deaths to date occurring over a period of two months.

I could understand pausing things for a couple of weeks to see how things go in the UK. I could understand implementing a vaccine pass that also allows for negative tests. I can’t understand the logic behind ignoring both those options and presenting a false dichotomy of closing to September or having vaccine certs. It’s preposterous.

normanoffside

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Modelling in November did not feature a new variant.

Or seasonality.

CalamariFritti

Arghus wrote: »

Kinda feels like he's damned if he does release it and damned if he doesn't...

The UK is monitoring delta since Feb 1.

They had 92,000 severe cases from it. Where severe means hospital attendance to some degree or worse. They recorded 117 deaths. 0.12%.

Of the severe cases. So when you factor in not severe cases, simply people who tested positives it stands to reason you can divide that by anything between 10 and 20. Then you can add the the non-detected cases which are anyone guess but a reasonable assumption would be another factor of 5 to 10.

Thats why they are confident to have 60,000 in Wembley and confident to move ahead with the complete abandonment of restrictions very soon. For now, granted, but like I said they are monitoring since February.

NPHET must have known this before the CMO released this letter.

The question must be asked, are they indeed conspiring against us? Like going secretly for some zero-covid/elimination strategy?

MOR316

If I or anyone had posted in January...

That we'd get to the end of June, with a sufficient vaccine rollout, with the vulnerable all but better protected from serious illness or death but that Tony Holohan and NPHET wanted indoor pubs and restaurants to remain closed, for possibly the rest of the year, along with concerts, theatre events, but would agree to let them open if people who were vaccinated were only allowed in, while the rest of the people who haven't been offered one were to be shunned from society, in quite an unlawful way but those who haven't been vaccinated can still in work in said locations, they just had to leave as soon as their shift finished and the Government would agree to it...

Out of curiousity, how many people would have called that poster a nutjob, a conspiracy theorist and it would go without saying, whoever posted it would have gotten banned from here...

That's how unbelievable this **** is!!

I said yesterday that the vaccine passport thing entered me head a few times but, just as soon went out of my head...But this?!?

Good Lord...I truly despair.

bear1

So... The DCC isn't ready.
Does that mean that it makes no fcukon difference to enter the country as they still want this idiotic PCR test?

MOR316

MrMusician18 wrote: »

What exactly is irresponsible about restricting indoor hospitality to the vaccinated. I am genuinely having trouble understanding why this is considered a huge imposition (aside of course from the numerous cranks on thread who use any chink or crack to wedge their lever of opposition in).

I love the pub and the restaurant, probably more than most, but jaysus I'll live without sitting inside for a few more weeks (or months if required) until my turn comes around.

People need to get a grip here.

And tell me...

What's your opinion on the musicians, artists, performers, actors and comedians who have been out of work since March 2020, who needs the bars, pubs, clubs and theatres to perform and to earn a living...

Should they get a grip too? Or do you not care about them because you're happy?

If you're happy to sit around and let people's freedoms and needs to be controlled and taken away, that's fine. But, doesn't mean you're right and it certainly doesn't give you the right to throw assumptions and petulant remarks at people who are annoyed about it