Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

IRISHSPORTSGUY

Serious question... how long could it take the NPHET computer scientists to change the input values on spreadsheets to reflect AstraZeneca and J&J being available to all groups? Surely it couldn't take more than a few hours?

Print the model again and then open up the country on the 5th. Madness how this is all down to outdated modelling.

Feria40

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Well yes, right now most businesses are closed since it's 12:20 at night.

Only a small number of leisure hospitality and entertainment focussed businesses remain closed, which is a tiny proportion of business in this country.

Teeny tiny proportion.

Tell that to the 25% of the working population that is on PUP/social welfare.

(By the way youth unemployment is currently running at 44%.. but hey it's no biggie).

gozunda

JRant wrote: »

WE didn't know about it but there is zero chance that Donnelly, Tony and NIAC didn't know about it before that letter was sent to government. At the very minimum it should have been called out in Tony's letter that new advice had been given on vaccine rollout that may have a material impact on everything else contained in it. What should have happened is that once Donnelly and Tony knew about the change they should have immediately commissioned a new model to reflect this change. If meant delaying publication by a week then so be it but make sure the reason for the delay is communicated clearly.

What appears to have happenes here is that cabinet were asked to make a decision on keeping indoor activities closed indefinitely on the back of a piece of paper not worth wiping your hole with.

I think you should email that to them. Evidently it never occurred to them. They'll be delighted with that..

Though there's so many suppositions and appropriating blame there it kinda reminds of that old football joke

The first fan blamed...: "I blame the manager; if we could sign better players, we'd be a great club."

The second fan blamed...: "I blame the players; if they made more effort, I'm sure we would score more goals."

The third fan blamed...: "I blame my parents; if I had been born in a different town, I'd be supporting a decent team."

funnydoggy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Vote him out so.

Oh I will. Didn't vote for him in the first place

MrMusician18

Feria40 wrote: »

Teeny tiny proportion.

Tell that to the 25% of the working population that is on PUP/social welfare.

(By the way youth unemployment is currently running at 44%.. but hey it's no biggie).

If 75% of people are working how does that square with the contention that everything is closed?

It doesn't, cos it's bollocks.

JRant

gozunda wrote: »

I think you should email that to them. Evidently it never occurred to them. They'll be delighted with that..

Though there's so many suppositions and appropriating blame there it kinda reminds of that old football joke

It clearly never occurred to them because they left that little tit bit out of the letter sent to government.

I'm not assuming anything. Donnelly was on camera saying he specifically asked NIAC to look at using J&J and AZ for under 40's. There's no way he asked first thing Monday and got a reply by lunchtime so both himself and Tony knew about this prior to the letter being sent to government.

Stormyteacup

gozunda wrote: »

Possibly because its a fairly new report (23 Jun 2021)and recommendations would take some time to be implemented I'd imagine. Though also its up to each EU/EEA country to decide on an appropriate course of action.

What we do know that the delta variant poses a risk to those who are unvaccinated and those with one dose of vaccine

From the ECDC report






There was no mention of vaccines being 'effective' btw. I referred to uptake as an example of issues which potentially may effect any modelling as was discussed.

So they can produce five models for a range of R0, transmissibility, number of close contacts but couldn’t run any models to take account of possible speedier vaccination?? Which was admittedly not decided but was certainly mooted. Are you contesting that they can’t model based on various vaccine uptake predictions?

ACitizenErased

Stormyteacup wrote: »

So they can produce five models for a range of R0, transmissibility, number of close contacts but couldn’t run any models to take account of possible speedier vaccination?? Which was admittedly not decided but was certainly mooted. Are you contesting that they can’t model based on various vaccine uptake predictions?

I'd ignore, I don't think that poster really gets it tbh.

JRant

Stormyteacup wrote: »

So they can produce five models for a range of R0, transmissibility, number of close contacts but couldn’t run any models to take account of possible speedier vaccination?? Which was admittedly not decided but was certainly mooted. Are you contesting that they can’t model based on various vaccine uptake predictions?

Remember, NPHET only use real world data and don't rely on simulated modelling. Oh, wait, that was for antigen tests.

JRant

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'd ignore, I don't think that poster really gets it tbh.

It's as clear as day that something very wrong has occurred this week. The CMO sent a letter to government with Armageddon type projections in it. It completely ignored the possibility of speeding up the vaccine program.

The man leading the modelling doesn't seem to understand with a 95% efficacy means, as shown by his tweets tonight.

The modelling assumes an R number of between 1.4/1.6 when Israel's data shows it drops significantly below that.

The UK data shows that a link between cases and severe illness is now broken.

MM appears to have misled cabinet on a fairly massive piece of information.

Even at face value there are serious questions to answer and shows a level of arrogance and complacency has taken root within the upper echelons of government and NPHET.

ACitizenErased

JRant wrote: »

It's as clear as day that something very wrong has occurred this week. The CMO sent a letter to government with Armageddon type projections in it. It completely ignored the possibility of speeding up the vaccine program.

The man leading the modelling doesn't seem to understand with a 95% efficacy means, as shown by his tweets tonight.

The modelling assumes an R number of between 1.4/1.6 when Israel's data shows it drops significantly below that.

The UK data shows that a link between cases and severe illness is now broken.

MM appears to have misled cabinet on a fairly massive piece of information.

Even at face value there are serious questions to answer and shows a level of arrogance and complacency has taken root within the upper echelons of government and NPHET.

100% agree

Billy Ocean

Always tried to keep a middle ground view regards opening up/restrictions etc. but the stuff from the last couple of days is absolutely banana's. What do our health 'experts' know that the most of Europe don't? Is all this down to a poorly resourced health system or are NPHET simply above their station and drunk on power? I think the government might be bricking it after xmas too although vaccines are a game changer from then. Seeing the crowds at the Euros have really been an eye opener, forget England as their ahead with vaccines and Hungary who have questionable leadership to say the least but seeing the crowds in places like Denmark made it really hit home.

emo72

Countries ****ed.
FF/FG gifted country to SF.
Countries ****ed.

Graham

Stormyteacup wrote: »

So they can produce five models for a range of R0, transmissibility, number of close contacts but couldn’t run any models to take account of possible speedier vaccination??

I'm sure they can. They should.

A few things have changed that now invalidate the current models. New models should take into account:

• offering J&J and AZ to under 40s and the expected supply of both vaccines
• the reduced interval for 2nd dose of AZ to the 60s cohort
• recent real world R0 and hospitalisation figures from the UK

Decisions can then be revisited as appropriate.

Deeper Blue

Yes we have

B2021M

JRant wrote: »

It's as clear as day that something very wrong has occurred this week. The CMO sent a letter to government with Armageddon type projections in it. It completely ignored the possibility of speeding up the vaccine program.

The man leading the modelling doesn't seem to understand with a 95% efficacy means, as shown by his tweets tonight.

The modelling assumes an R number of between 1.4/1.6 when Israel's data shows it drops significantly below that.

The UK data shows that a link between cases and severe illness is now broken.

MM appears to have misled cabinet on a fairly massive piece of information.

Even at face value there are serious questions to answer and shows a level of arrogance and complacency has taken root within the upper echelons of government and NPHET.

Yes agree. It does appear NPHET want to cover themselves from any future blame.

Given the magnitude of the decisions to be made the government should have access to other projections from an expert group independent of NPHET (and working 'blind' from NPHET so views can be independently gathered).

Billy Ocean

Beirut wrote: »

Let's thank Michael Martin for his (terrible) service, and send him off into the sunset with his massive pension. He's been an absolute failure for the people of this country.

We know 1 thing for sure himself or Leo currently aren't the individual running the country.

Rayne Wooney

We have the benefit of a time machine across the sea, it’s taken 32 days for their hospital number to double, despite high cases for weeks and weeks now the hospitalisation rate is around 1-2%.

If we get to the 1st of August and our hospital number doubles to 80-90 people, with 1.4 million additional vaccinations during that time, that is a great position surely, what is with the hysteria? Why couldn’t we open as planned?

We know where we will be in 5-6 weeks if we open indoor dining, there is plenty of data to work with, surely it makes more sense to open the country and monitor the UK with a 5 week safety cushion than to keep the country closed for fear of the unknown.

If NPHET are right and the UK needs to reimplement restrictions, the whole of Europe won’t be far behind, and the Irish will be locked down throughout. That is obviously the worst scenario imaginable. Think about it, there is no chance the UK introduce restrictions again while we are easing restrictions, that will never happen so we are in a lose lose situation there. If we open now and shít doesn’t hit the fan then we’ve avoided weeks/months of unnecessary lockdown, that looks to me like the reward is far greater than the risk, with a massive safety net built in.

If vaccines work then there’s no way NPHET can be right, the rest of Europe clearly agrees with that statement. We are at 4 million vaccinations, we’re on course for ~5.5 million by August, ~7 million by September. With that level of vaccination how can the hospitals ever reach tipping point again, it’s nonsensical.

Klonker

JRant wrote: »

It's as clear as day that something very wrong has occurred this week. The CMO sent a letter to government with Armageddon type projections in it. It completely ignored the possibility of speeding up the vaccine program.

The man leading the modelling doesn't seem to understand with a 95% efficacy means, as shown by his tweets tonight.

The modelling assumes an R number of between 1.4/1.6 when Israel's data shows it drops significantly below that.

The UK data shows that a link between cases and severe illness is now broken.

MM appears to have misled cabinet on a fairly massive piece of information.

Even at face value there are serious questions to answer and shows a level of arrogance and complacency has taken root within the upper echelons of government and NPHET.

I think I'm a bit like Philip Nolan and don't fully understand how the vaccine efficency percentage is measured.
Anyone care to explain in simple enough terms for myself and Philly if he's reading:D

Micky 32

Meanwhile in the UK:

https://twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1410352883992776708?s=21

gozunda

Stormyteacup wrote: »

So they can produce five models for a range of R0, transmissibility, number of close contacts but couldn’t run any models to take account of possible speedier vaccination?? Which was admittedly not decided but was certainly mooted. Are you contesting that they can’t model based on various vaccine uptake predictions?

A bit odd that- Who is saying that?

But if they knew the precise details* of the proposal whilst undertaking the modelling - which as you say was "admittedly not decided" - I'm sure they could have. A time machine would have been handy otherwise. And I'm fairly certain they can also make model based vaccine uptake predictions - again once they had the precise details of the NIAC recommendations.

But I don't think everyone really gets that tbh.

*

While a target had previously been set to get every adult in Ireland who wants a vaccine fully vaccinated by the end of September, Donnelly told Virgin Media News that the NIAC advice could mean this would happen sooner.

He said: "We have been on plan before the NIAC advice to have every adult in the country who wants to be vaccinated fully vaccinated by the end of September.

"We're working right now to calculate exactly what the change might be in terms of vaccinating people earlier but certainly it will move it forward several weeks.

"It would be lovely to be able to see a situation where every adult who wanted a vaccine would be fully vaccinated ideally by the end of August.

"But we need to work through the exact modelling of that now with the HSE, with the taskforce, and as always these timelines are heavily dependent on the supplies that arrive in."

https://www.joe.ie/news/stephen-donnelly-hoping-adults-will-able-fully-vaccinated-end-august-725283

A miracle! Dunno how she done it

stateofflux

stateofflux wrote: »

That's a textbook example of a straw man fallacy

Why??? He is meant to ask questions. That's his job. Instead, he is too busy brown-nosing NPhet. Nothing more than a lapdog and sycophant

aziz

I don’t think we ever had the plot since the bloodless coup by nphet

gozunda

B2021M wrote: »

Yes agree. It does appear NPHET want to cover themselves from any future blame.

Given the magnitude of the decisions to be made the government should have access to other projections from an expert group independent of NPHET (and working 'blind' from NPHET so views can be independently gathered).

They do ...

From the ECDC

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-and-impact-sars-cov-2-delta-variant

suicide_circus

In response to Stephen Donnelly's assertion that NPHET have warned that "the greatest hurricane to ever hit Ireland" is approaching, I cannot do better than to quote this twitter user;


"if this is true then how come we aren't heading straight back to level 5? Surely just keeping indoor dining closed won't stop "the greatest hurricane to ever hit Ireland". I'm no virologist or statistician, but I'd say there is a high chance that statement is bollocks"


https://mobile.twitter.com/CoachRoche_/status/1410338908831899650

ingo1984

Looks like nphets days are numbered. Donnelly to set up new advisory group for roll out of rapid antigen testing. Essentially a zero vote of confidence in nphet.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/governmentset-to-defy-nphetadvice-and-press-on-withrapid-antigen-tests-40600533.html

agoodpunt

remember "the we are all in this together" now we are so far away from this its an obsolute shambles and it will cost us dearly we allowed our country to be as messed up as the HSE has always been

JRant

JRant wrote: »

It's as clear as day that something very wrong has occurred this week.

I’d agree with everything except I’d say that something very wrong occurred sometime in early or mid 2020 rather than last week. The same over-reach, the same fearfulness, the same abdication of political leadership, the same manifestation of out-of-your-depth incompetence, the same eagerness to quash freedoms for the illusion of safety, has been manifest right from the beginning.

Personally I excused it in March and April 2020 as no one really knew what we were dealing with. More astute people, such as Peter Hitchens, had the measure of this whole episode right from the beginning; alas, not me. I was in favor of lockdown and restrictions up until around May 2020. By then it was very clear that we had all - globally - overreacted and that the cure (shut downs, restriction of movement, mandatory detention, etc) was over reach, and worse than the disease.

In retrospect, the deference of incompetent, fearful politicians to incompetent, authoritarian civil servants in 2020 turned out to be an unwitting and all too casual prying at the lid of Pandora’s box for free societies like ours. The outcome: we now know which of our neighbors have a predilection for (soft) totalitarianism and we see that politicians and civil servants easily get addicted to it, too. It’s something you slip into, unknowingly, rather than forthrightly embrace.

agoodpunt

NPET would lock down for winter flu season if they kept govt control but am glad it falling apart and if they had any guts they would reform get rid of houlahan and co we need a better less over administration health service should have happened when the HSE was formed under guidance of Reid

setup an independent group to measure all data for 2 weeks shared with our EU partners and open indoor immediately if safe save our summer or what left