Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

OwenM

melekalikimaka wrote: »

I would be confident looking at their qualifications that a large proportion would have required studying data analytics within their professional studies yes

Data analytics didn't exist when they were studying, if we are talking about statistics and modelling, yes there is expertise but there are no epidemiologists on NPHET. The thing about statistics, you can manipulate them any way you want to get the answer you want, and the modelling produced recently is just to support Holohans opinion.

TheCitizen

Ballynally wrote: »

I think you actually CAN have a discussion about acceptable levels of deaths.
Nobody wants to talk about it but we accept certain death levels all the time.
One example is deaths from influenza.
We could say we have to accept the death levels normally associated w a bad outbreak of influenza or even an epidemic, proceed w vaccinations as rapid as possible, like we are, and let life continue as is.
The lockdown method has reached its ceiling, both financially and health wise.It can no longer be used.
Even halting indoor hospitality will not statistically influence the growth of variants much.
To get back to acceptable death levels: severe influenza outbreak in Ireland 2017/2018. Deaths:255.
You can give that answer to anyone asking and then pose a question back: what would YOU say is an acceptable level of deaths?
They wont have an answer because it seems absurd to them.
They would like to say: 0 but likely realise how stupid that sounds.

You could say the same about driving cars. There’s a certain level of deaths on the roads annually and they try with campaigns to promote safety but I don’t think anyone is suggesting we should ban private motoring because there’s always a few deaths on the roads every year.

Beasty

Threads merged

Russman

JRant wrote: »

Indeed and the claim is that for simplicity sake that's the way they have to model it. Unfortunately, it means any model derived from it is basically like trying to tell what the weather will be like in 2 weeks by putting your finger in the air. Now for an academic study it might be okay to do this but when you're basing real world policy on it then we have serious problems.

I remember early in my career we were trying to model how a piece of equipment would behave in the ocean with 6 degrees of freedom involved. One of the senior members of the team made a comment that stuck with me. He basically said we need to actually put one in the water as the sea won't be long making ****e of the calculations.

Trying to model highly complex scenarios with simple modelling just does not work.

You're right, but probably no government bar maybe a Tory UK or US with Donny in charge, will "put one in the water" when its their population that they're taking a chance with. I'm not for a second saying NPHET are right with their models, personally I can't see their two or three worst case scenarios ever coming to pass, but I'm no expert. I think ultimately a delay of a few weeks will buy us enough time to open after the August bank holiday, certainly well before they have any semblance of a coronapass developed or workable.

paw patrol

melekalikimaka wrote: »

alot of people here seem to know more than professionals... worrying times

I kinda like posts like this as they demonstrate such ignorance.
We should listen to expert opinion but never blindly accept it because it is usually based on a single issue with no concern for secondary impacts.

you have ignored that:

Expert Opinion isn't infallible

We should have a choice to follow that advice - a cost/benefit analysis so to speak - clearly my risk assessment/appetite differs from Dr Tony

NPHET aren't the only experts. Many experts say they are wrong.

Personal freedom - we shouldn't be owned by the state.

Finally, your deference to authority is laughable - they aren't here to save you. they exist to protect the state , you'll be left pissing in the wind if you rely on them. You are responsible for yourself always and it shouldn't be any other way.

But carry on...

Bsharp

melekalikimaka wrote: »

I would be confident looking at their qualifications that a large proportion would have required studying data analytics within their professional studies yes

Studying data analytics and the application of computer modelling to test probability of scenarios in the real world are two very different things.

In our company we have model development and model application. There's crossover but it's recognised as two different skillsets.

elefant

melekalikimaka wrote: »

I would be confident looking at their qualifications that a large proportion would have required studying data analytics within their professional studies yes

Philip Nolan is a professional, and chair of the modelling group, and what he tweeted about over 70s vulnerability to serious illness after vaccination is completely misleading.

You can say what you want about needing to trust in what experts are saying, and I've been staunchly of this view for the past year and half too, but you can't deny complete falsehoods staring you in the face.

If this falsehood didn't, in fact, factor into data used in the forecast NHPET made, then they should clarify that. Though this would then lead me to ask why he tweeted it in the first place.

JDxtra

bucketybuck wrote: »

You'd need to be pretty ****ing slow in the head to believe that this latest delay is only for 2 weeks.

Yes, when the Government say "2 weeks" it's just deferring an actual answer. Like a parent saying "we'll see" when a child asks for something (i.e. no).

That's how they are treating us.

is_that_so

TheCitizen wrote: »

How do you mean government ain’t the problem here? It’s their call at the end of the day. They’re being cautious, overly cautious by the looks of it. They remember that they got a lashback for opening up prior to Christmas. It looks like they were over optimistic then and over cautious now.

The 2-3 week pause is not the problem here, it's the uncertainty of July 19 and way beyond that with the ridiculous modelling data. NPHET deciding government policy is also a factor but the government will get the blame for not planning something they were never going to do.

bucketybuck

melekalikimaka wrote: »

I would be confident looking at their qualifications that a large proportion would have required studying data analytics within their professional studies yes

Then why did they present such an obviously flawed model to the highest level of government?

normanoffside

paw patrol wrote: »

we were never in this together and the plot was lost last summer.

the state was paralyzed with fear and our leaders had absolutely no risk appetitie
imagine a leader in any sector in fear of taking risk - it wouldn't happen - they would have never achieved anything and not made leader for sure.

The country and esp the young people were sacrificed for a small cohort of panic merchants who swallowed the guff from NPHET ,the state and the paid off media.

the covid19 was an exercise in overblown hysteria.
The equivalent of the moving statues for the non secular ireland of the new century

It’s like a poker player folding 4 Aces because there is a chance the opponent has a straight flush. That kind of poker player would never win.

TheCitizen

paw patrol wrote: »

I kinda like posts like this as they demonstrate such ignorance.
We should listen to expert opinion but never blindly accept it because it is usually based on a single issue with no concern for secondary impacts.

you have ignored that:

Expert Opinion isn't infallible

We should have a choice to follow that advice - a cost/benefit analysis so to speak - clearly my risk assessment/appetite differs from Dr Tony

NPHET aren't the only experts. Many experts say they are wrong.

Personal freedom - we shouldn't be owned by the state.

Finally, your deference to authority is laughable - they aren't here to save you. they exist to protect the state , you'll be left pissing in the wind if you rely on them. You are responsible for yourself always and it shouldn't be any other way.

But carry on...

How is it protecting the state to shut down business?

You’re right that NPHET aren’t the only experts, the government in this case are being overly cautious. Whereas last Christmas they err on the side of populism. I think that error has them afraid to open up right now.

CruelSummer

elefant wrote: »

Paul Reid is a professional, and chair of the modelling group, and what he tweeted about over 70s vulnerability to serious illness after vaccination is completely misleading.

You can say what you want about needing to trust in what experts are saying, and I've been staunchly of this view for the past year and half too, but you can't deny complete falsehoods staring you in the face.

If this falsehood didn't, in fact, factor into data used in the forecast NHPET made, then they should clarify that. Though this would then lead me to ask why he tweeted it in the first place.

Wrong person, it’s Philip Nolan you’re thinking of.

Ballynally

Wibbs wrote: »

Well that's one problem with this country and its authorities. They are almost never held to account and if they are rarely enough get any sort of penalty. Once you're in, you're in and when you leave there'll be a nice pension in it. Politicians at the top of the three are worst if all for this, but that's on us for repeatedly voting them in. Though to be fair the choices aren't exactly great or much different to each other.

Ever since i moved to Ireland i have been struggling w the political system here.
Until one day it dawned on me.
I was travelling w a friend. We spoke about the recent dail elections. He told me he voted for X. I asked him why? He said person X was responsible for putting a good children's playground in his town.
But X is a member of parliament. Should this not be decided on a council level, i asked? The telling answer was that X was grand because X could do something for him at a local level.
I told him this means that members of parliament worry about votes in their constituency first and then worry about running the country even members of cabinet.
It doesnt seem to be in the right order.
I came to understand that Ireland is a highly centralised country w trickle down politics.
You can vote for who you want and hope that your representative in parliament has enough clout to suck up to the boss to release fund f your local pet project.
For that X has to stay on board, on message and look to be cooperative, ie, play the game..

Klonker

JRant wrote: »

I'll give it a go but it's nowhere as straight forward as the way Nolan described it. You don't take the 95% figure and apply it to an entire population. That 95% figure is at the individual level, so every person that recieves the vaccine has a 5% chance of getting a bad dose. You then need to factor in the prevalence of catching it, which is not 100% or anywhere near it. So if there's a 10% chance of catching it then you have 0.05 (5%) x 0.1(10%) = 0.005 (0.5%).

Taking Nolan's example of 700,000 over 70's it means it means 3,500 people are at risk of contracting a serious dose, not 35,000 as he stated.

Thanks JRant. And in your example of 3,500 at risk of serious disease, wouldn't they just have the same chance of severe disease as an unvaccinated person? Say for example if an unvaccinated over 70s has a 20% chance of severe disease if they catch covid, then the likelyhood is if 3,500 are susceptible to severe disease, only about 700 will get severe disease? As the baseline measurement of 95% protection isn't against getting severe disease, its against the chances of an unvaccinated person in the same circumstances getting severe disease.

Like he's not lying when he says susceptible but it gives the impression all that 5% will get severe disease.

Does that make sense what I've outlined above? If so the worst case scenario seems impossible even if every single person on the island caught covid between now and September!

the kelt

Theres another things which needs to be remembered here.

Everything was going along just fine, all the mood music was good, Vaccines are going well, bits about the link between cases and hospitilisations was being weakened and broken, Delta a bit of a dark cloud but looking at UK etc still looking good. All pretty much positive with a bit of "lets still be careful here " thrown in, kinda what ye would expect.

Then bang Monday, doomsday!

These experts in modelling etc didnt see this until when? Monday? Just on Monday it was like "oh, lets look at this"

Surely these doomsday scenarios would be something that you would be noticing, looking at, making government aware off but no boom come Monday morning we went from a dark cloud to killer tornado the likes never see in this country before.

Does that not ring a few alarm bells even for those who trust NPHET and their modelling without question?

elefant

CruelSummer wrote: »

Wrong person, it’s Philip Nolan you’re thinking of.

My bad, thanks!

Although, as he's a professional too, the point is the same.

Bsharp

bucketybuck wrote: »

Then why did they present such an obviously flawed model to the highest level of government?

This is the issue. They shouldn't have in the manner that they did. The headline figures were put out in the public and plenty of figures who have expertise in this field, and others, were not convinced. The response by government and NPHET highlight they're not convinced/confident either. Their clarification, while appreciated, raised more questions.
So we need to resolve how we're using available data, in theoretical analytics/modelling, to make real world decisions.

CruelSummer

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Again, no they can't.

That's updated licensing part of which is due to come in later this year and the rest in 2022.

Once brought in, the bill will mean that larger pubs and hotels can apply to open until 2am up to 104 nights per year, while smaller pubs will be able to open to 1am up to 104 nights per year. 1hr drinking up time brings it to 2am & 3am.

So therefore they can have people inside in said pubs until 3am come Autumn time. They’re not closed down and told they wouldn’t even be advised to reopen come end of September. They’re also not using a vaccine passport system. If you want to pick apart the finer details of the legislation, be my guest.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2021/0629/1232083-northern-ireland-pubs/

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-57644493

Bsharp

Ballynally wrote: »

Ever since i moved to Ireland i have been struggling w the political system here.
Until one day it dawned on me.
I was travelling w a friend. We spoke about the recent dail elections. He told me he voted for X. I asked him why? He said person X was responsible for putting a good children's playground in his town.
But X is a member of parliament. Should this not be decided on a council level, i asked? The telling answer was that X was grand because X could do something for him at a local level.
I told him this means that members of parliament worry about votes in their constituency first and then worry about running the country even members of cabinet.
It doesnt seem to be in the right order.
I came to understand that Ireland is a highly centralised country w trickle down politics.
You can vote for who you want and hope that your representative in parliament has enough clout to suck up to the boss to release fund f your local pet project.
For that X has to stay on board, on message and look to be cooperative, ie, play the game..

The name given to it is 'parish pump' or parochial politics.

paw patrol

TheCitizen wrote: »

How is it protecting the state to shut down business?

NPHET are afraid to allow any level risk and the exposing of the health service which is state run. As long as the EU print money the state services and civil service will be paid in full- maybe even a pay rise . No bother.
They are willingly to sacrifice all other private enterprise for that holy grail.
But are NPHET to blame - yes they are but in their defence , theirs is a single issue - the blame lies at cabinet and their cowardly deference to NPHET.

They have completely ignore the fact people to a large degree are willing to accept the covid risk.
Sure Newstalk and the rest will have surveys showing massive approval for NPHET
but your eyes will shows pubs/restaurants/parks/gyms/beaches and all the rest are packed and when indoor dining/drinking opens - they'll be further packed.
so make of that what you will.

Loafing Oaf

suicide_circus wrote: »

In response to Stephen Donnelly's assertion that NPHET have warned that "the greatest hurricane to ever hit Ireland" is approaching, I cannot do better than to quote this twitter user;


"if this is true then how come we aren't heading straight back to level 5? Surely just keeping indoor dining closed won't stop "the greatest hurricane to ever hit Ireland". I'm no virologist or statistician, but I'd say there is a high chance that statement is bollocks"


https://mobile.twitter.com/CoachRoche_/status/1410338908831899650

Do we know for a fact that he said this; it seems an astonishing outburst. Like, worse than the famine or the Black Death?:eek:

Stormyteacup

the kelt wrote: »

Theres another things which needs to be remembered here.

Everything was going along just fine, all the mood music was good, Vaccines are going well, bits about the link between cases and hospitilisations was being weakened and broken, Delta a bit of a dark cloud but looking at UK etc still looking good. All pretty much positive with a bit of "lets still be careful here " thrown in, kinda what ye would expect.

Then bang Monday, doomsday!

These experts in modelling etc didnt see this until when? Monday? Just on Monday it was like "oh, lets look at this"

Surely these doomsday scenarios would be something that you would be noticing, looking at, making government aware off but no boom come Monday morning we went from a dark cloud to killer tornado the likes never see in this country before.

Does that not ring a few alarm bells even for those who trust NPHET and their modelling without question?

Just because I dislike the man so much and have such a low opinion of him, which I appreciate is not shared by all - I reckon TH resented greatly having his scheduled meeting moved forward from Thursday to Monday to accommodate the alcohol-facilitators of Ireland and was minded to shut down even the rational possibility of a three-week delay and switched to ‘we were never going to recommend you can open until the end of September anyway - so there’ (*not THs actual words).

paw patrol

TheCitizen wrote: »

How is it protecting the state to shut down business?

You’re right that NPHET aren’t the only experts, the government in this case are being overly cautious. Whereas last Christmas they err on the side of populism. I think that error has them afraid to open up right now.

for clarity , I meant on as an individual the state doesn't care for you

people will be left drowning in debt (and other stuff like missed cancer treatment etc..)_ when this is over and the government will be gone to the next item on the agenda. MM will give his hangdog sigh remembering his school teacher days as he patronises you (again) and Leo will throw out some new soundbites for the LOLz

Go back to 2008 and the years after....how the state didn't give a hoot while people were left dying in some cases due to all sorts of fcukery.

facehugger99

It's quite clear that Holohan is using Covid as a personal chance at redemption for his past failings. By painting the virus as a deadly killer he gets to portray himself as the hero that will save us all.

He doesn't care if he has to drag the entire country down to do it and the Government are too cowardly and weak to stop this from happening.

This is very dangerous, ego-driven nonsense from a man who does not want to relinquish control and who is prepared to bully, leak and mislead his way to get what he wants.

The fact it's being lapped up by large swades of the population is worrying.

Red Silurian

JDxtra wrote: »

Yes, when the Government say "2 weeks" it's just deferring an actual answer. Like a parent saying "we'll see" when a child asks for something (i.e. no).

That's how they are treating us.

12th March 2020 - Leo Varadkar, standing in front of the cameras in Washington DC, closes schools and requests working form home for 2 weeks

Throughout April, May and June there was 3 week extensions

Throughout July and August there were 3 week extensions to the "phase 4" reopening (essentially pubs that don't serve food and a few more people allowed at mass gatherings)

What I'm trying to say is I think you're right...

Ballynally

Ballynally wrote: »

Ever since i moved to Ireland i have been struggling w the political system here.
Until one day it dawned on me.
I was travelling w a friend. We spoke about the recent dail elections. He told me he voted for X. I asked him why? He said person X was responsible for putting a good children's playground in his town.
But X is a member of parliament. Should this not be decided on a council level, i asked? The telling answer was that X was grand because X could do something for him at a local level.
I told him this means that members of parliament worry about votes in their constituency first and then worry about running the country even members of cabinet.
It doesnt seem to be in the right order.
I came to understand that Ireland is a highly centralised country w trickle down politics.
You can vote for who you want and hope that your representative in parliament has enough clout to suck up to the boss to release fund f your local pet project.
For that X has to stay on board, on message and look to be cooperative, ie, play the game..

The way I'd describe it is that we're incredibly corrupt but small enough that enough people benefit from it that it looks ok. Seeing us rank super-low on corruption indexes and the like always gets a chuckle from me.

Dr. Bre

It’s a pity we had a general election just before covid. Decisions would be different if election was near

Jinglejangle69

Donnelly on Pat Kenny explaining things to us like we're 5 year olds.

Explaining and listening is what us plebs need.

Snooker Loopy

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's quite clear that Holohan is using Covid as a personal chance at redemption for his past failings. By painting the virus as a deadly killer he gets to portray himself as the hero that will save us all.

He doesn't care if he has to drag the entire country down to do it and the Government are too cowardly and weak to stop this from happening.

This is very dangerous, ego-driven nonsense from a man who does not want to relinquish control and who is prepared to bully, leak and mislead his way to get what he wants.

The fact it's being lapped up by large swades of the population is worrying.

Give up the amateur psychology.