Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

namloc1980

Boggles wrote: »

I'm sure the Finnish Health Ministry will monitor it. I imagine the outbreak will not just be contained to the 300 supporters that come home with like you suggested.

Obviously that data will depend on several key variables.

Personally I think Finland have managed the pandemic rather well.

But if you like you should fire them off an email, I'm not sure they would entertain your myopic wholly unqualified musings, but sure you never know.

Let us know how you get on.

LOL. You're the one who brought this up in the first place like it was the end of the world. So you have no data or evidence any of these are in hospital or ICU or have severe illness? That's grand and thanks for confirming that. You should have just said that at the beginning.

zebastein

MOH wrote: »

We also have a new note that "Taqpath S-gene PCR target results by specimen week show that the prevalence of S-gene positivity (proxy for Delta) has increased from 28% in week 24 to 55.5% in week 25."
No idea what that means, I'm guessing it's the percentage of positive cases that have been classed as the Delta variant? Or at least some measure of how prevalent it is. Yet despite this doubling, the 7-day average has increased by just 4%. It's also worth noting that at some point the previous week the 7-day average hit the lowest since mid-December.
Plus hospitalisations and ICU cases haven't increased.

That is the key element for me. If we were at 5/10% variant and that the "surge is coming soon", then you can maybe understand extra precautions.

But what has being told this week is that the Delta variant has reached 50% and that we have not seen any major impact, just a very slight increase in case numbers. We will see in 2weeks the variant reaching 90% of the cases, and if case numbers are still in the 500/600s, we will be asking ourselves: now what ?

gozunda

ecoli3136 wrote: »

I don't suppose I can interest you in a Finnish model?

I presume she's good looking:

ACitizenErased

Finally using some intelligence. The EU cert allows you to get it if tested or previously had covid too.
https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1410559065575542792?s=21

namloc1980

gozunda wrote: »

Ah so the goal posts have not only been moved - they have been seized and were last scene heading over the horizon?

The issue being ranted about was why NIAC decision to recommend additional vaccines wasn’t included in the model and report in the first place.

And we now know that the briefing on the model was already completed on day NIACs recommendation was announced.

So OK now thats moved to why didn't they delay?

Simply because a decision on indoor dining, needed to be made ASAP. The information presented was what what was relevant to a short delay in the opening of indoor dining and not several months down the line as more vaccines were being made available. Imo they made the correct decision at that point in time with existing data. There was no omissions because the parameters for the extra vaccines had yet to be worked out.

Once they have the new parameters- it shouldn't be a problem producing a new model.

Honestly, if someone presented a paper for decision to senior managers at work for an immediate issue but declared instead "ah listen lads there's some additional stuff coming down the line that I'll add in - so I didnt bother producing that paper which is needed now" - I would hope the individual would be taken to one side and given a serious talking to.
.

Not sure what this rant is trying to achieve but it's quite amusing, fair play.
You think it's acceptable to present outdated and incomplete data to decision makers? They presented data unrelated to reality and with a 10 fold difference between the best and worst case scenario. Absolutely farcical nonsense. But you seem happy with it so no wonder they can present this stuff and certain people with cheer and clap.

namloc1980

newuser99999 wrote: »

Would put Galway West TDs to shame. I got generic responses from PAs that my messages would be passed on to the TD. What are we paying these people for.

Got nothing from my TDs except 1 auto generated response. I'll be sure to remind them of that when they come knocking looking for votes at the next election.

growleaves

namloc1980 wrote: »

Got nothing from my TDs except 1 auto generated response. I'll be sure to remind them of that when they come knocking looking for votes at the next election.

They won't knock on doors, they'll campaign digitally is my prediction.

the kelt

the kelt wrote: »

Rinse and repeat

Yes - and if absolutely cornered on inconvenient facts, ignore them completely.

lawred2

gozunda wrote: »

Ah so the goal posts have not only been moved - they have been seized and were last scene heading over the horizon?

The issue being ranted about was why NIAC decision to recommend additional vaccines wasn’t included in the model and report in the first place.

And we now know that the briefing on the model was already completed on day NIACs recommendation was announced.

So OK now thats moved to why didn't they delay?

Simply because a decision on indoor dining, needed to be made ASAP. The information presented was what what was relevant to a short delay in the opening of indoor dining and not several months down the line as more vaccines were being made available. Imo they made the correct decision at that point in time with existing data. There was no omissions because the parameters for the extra vaccines had yet to be worked out.

Once they have the new parameters- it shouldn't be a problem producing a new model.

Honestly, if someone presented a paper for decision to senior managers at work for an immediate issue but declared instead "ah listen lads there's some additional stuff coming down the line that I'll add in - so I didnt bother producing that paper which is needed now" - I would hope the individual would be taken to one side and given a serious talking to.
.

ASAP? Not even a few days to reassess? Was needed immediately! That very second!?

That's a bit weak to be honest when something is of this import.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

I presume she's good looking:

Well within your range.

namloc1980

Aviva closing for a rugger match while Donnelly is predicting armageddon and the need to get as many vaccines as possible done asap. Not a great look.

niallo27

gozunda wrote: »

Ah so the goal posts have not only been moved - they have been seized and were last scene heading over the horizon?

The issue being ranted about was why NIAC decision to recommend additional vaccines wasn’t included in the model and report in the first place.

And we now know that the briefing on the model was already completed on day NIACs recommendation was announced.

So OK now thats moved to why didn't they delay?

Simply because a decision on indoor dining, needed to be made ASAP. The information presented was what what was relevant to a short delay in the opening of indoor dining and not several months down the line as more vaccines were being made available. Imo they made the correct decision at that point in time with existing data. There was no omissions because the parameters for the extra vaccines had yet to be worked out.

Once they have the new parameters- it shouldn't be a problem producing a new model.

Honestly, if someone presented a paper for decision to senior managers at work for an immediate issue but declared instead "ah listen lads there's some additional stuff coming down the line that I'll add in - so I didnt bother producing that paper which is needed now" - I would hope the individual would be taken to one side and given a serious talking to.
.

If someone presented a paper to senior management on future projections for the company that were so widely different, they wouldn't be given a talking to they would have been told to **** off out of the company.

melekalikimaka

namloc1980 wrote: »

Aviva closing for a rugger match while Donnelly is predicting armageddon and the need to get as many vaccines as possible done asap. Not a great look.

you are aware the stadium is privately owned?

gozunda

namloc1980 wrote: »

Not sure what this rant is trying to achieve but it's quite amusing, fair play.You think it's acceptable to present outdated and incomplete data to decision makers? They presented data unrelated to reality and with a 10 fold difference between the best and worst case scenario. Absolutely farcical nonsense. But you seem happy with it so no wonder they can present this stuff and certain people with cheer and clap.

Well done - you're argument was soundly trashed so now that's reverted to first position that they should have used a time machine and brought that data back in time so it could be already modeled on the same day it was announced. And all that despite the fact that a decision on the status of indoor dining was required asap? Brillant. You may also wish to look up how best case / worst case modeling is used btw.

Sofa King Great

melekalikimaka wrote: »

you are aware the stadium is privately owned?

You are aware that hundreds of privately owned businesses remain closed pending further progress on the vaccine roll out?

namloc1980

melekalikimaka wrote: »

you are aware the stadium is privately owned?

Yes what has that got to do with it? There's no plan in place to even temporarily replace that capacity. Again with Donnelly and NPHET predicating doomsday stuff if we don't vaccinate and tell us every day counts. It's just yet another shambles to add to the omnishambles.

namloc1980

gozunda wrote: »

Well done - you're argument was soundly trashed so now that's reverted to first position that they should have used a time machine and brought that data back in time so it could be already modeled on the same day it was announced. And all that despite the fact that a decision on the status of indoor dining was required asap? Brillant. You may also wish to look up how best case / worst case modeling is used btw.

:pac: Only in your head bud.

You keep saying this. Are you trying to convince yourself of it at this point? Seems so. The decision, as you have rightly pointed out and appear to accept, was based on flawed and outdated data. You're still cheering for it though as you have done throughout - NPHET can never be wrong!!

A 10 fold difference between best and worst case scenarios is absolute nonsense and is absolutely useless for decision makers. It means your inputs/model are junk or complete guesswork, if that's what you're getting out.

gozunda

lawred2 wrote: »

ASAP? Not even a few days to reassess? Was needed immediately! That very second!?That's a bit weak to be honest when something is of this import.

Not me saying that

Last week, the Restaurants Association of Ireland called on the Irish government to make a decision by Tuesday on whether all indoor entertainment will be allowed to resume from 5 July.

And tbf I can understand why - restaurants cafes etc needed to have a quick decision allow for logistics etc if opening was going to happen. Maybe have a word with them if that didn't suit.

Bsharp

gozunda wrote: »

Well yes. I believe that was already covered. Afaik the mathematical model used was the population-based SEIR model

From the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group to NPHET


Tbf the modelling is being overseen by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group whose members have considerable expertise in this area despite what some want to believe.

Thanks, appreciate the response. I'm interested in the assumption they've used in the model i.e. is it recorded cases which will be an underestimation of the actual total, under by a substantial amount I'd imagine. All the little things in modelling add up.

There's things in their modelling approach which could also lead to an underestimation. Assuming last years' social interactions as a basis for this year is an interesting one. Whilst indoor hospitality is closed, the risk tolerance for young people is probably a lot higher this year, leading to many more contacts.

gozunda

namloc1980 wrote: »

You keep saying this. Are you trying to convince yourself of it at this point? Seems so. The decision, as you have rightly pointed out and appear to accept, was based on flawed and outdated data. You're still cheering for it though as you have done throughout - NPHET can never be wrong!!A 10 fold difference between best and worst case scenarios is absolute nonsense and is absolutely useless for decision makers. It means your inputs/model are junk or complete guesswork, if that's what you're getting out.

They didn't have the data ergo the model wasn't outdated but more importantly the information presented was what what was relevant to a short delay in the opening of indoor dining and not several months down the line as more vaccines were being made available.

So time machine scenario it is them

Fair enough.

Ps. Highlighted bit - back to the old game of things never said?

OwenM

namloc1980 wrote: »

:pac: Only in your head bud.

You keep saying this. Are you trying to convince yourself of it at this point? Seems so. The decision, as you have rightly pointed out and appear to accept, was based on flawed and outdated data. You're still cheering for it though as you have done throughout - NPHET can never be wrong!!

A 10 fold difference between best and worst case scenarios is absolute nonsense and is absolutely useless for decision makers. It means your inputs/model are junk or complete guesswork, if that's what you're getting out.

It's always been junk, when they publish R numbers with a ranges like 0.7-1.1 then it should have been obvious - a range like that says

ummm, infections could be falling rapidly or growing slowly

totally useless.

Leftwaffe

I reckon I’m gonna have to book a staycation ASAP by the sounds of it, these ****ers are gonna lock us all up again.

Shelga

Anyone else feel like the vast majority of politicians are still too scared of coming out and saying they just don’t believe the CMO’s projections anymore, for fear of being portrayed as nutters?

Rather, they’re criticising things like indoor dining for vaccinated people only (which is obviously still worthy of criticism but detracts from the main issue).

lawred2

gozunda wrote: »

Not me saying that



And tbf I can understand why - restaurants cafes etc needed to have a quick decision allow for logistics etc if opening was going to happen. Maybe have a word with them if that didn't suit.

Well in the circumstances I think the RAI might have been amenable to a few day's delay. Or do you not think so? Not that lobby groups get to dictate such deadlines to government anyway.

TomTomTim

Sofa King Great wrote: »

You are aware that hundreds of privately owned businesses remain closed pending further progress on the vaccine roll out?

That's one of the worst arguments I've heard on here. Your house is privately owned too, yet I can't do what I want in my house, I still have to follow the law.

TomTomTim

Shelga wrote: »

Anyone else feel like the vast majority of politicians are still too scared of coming out and saying they just don’t believe the CMO’s projections anymore, for fear of being portrayed as nutters?

Rather, they’re criticising things like indoor dining for vaccinated people only (which is obviously still worthy of criticism but detracts from the main issue).

This mindset is effecting all policy in Ireland, not just COVID. Anything that exists outside of "accepted speech" or standards, will not be opposed, mainly due to cowardice. We truly have a broken democracy in this country.

namloc1980

gozunda wrote: »

Not me saying that



And tbf I can understand why - restaurants cafes etc needed to have a quick decision allow for logistics etc if opening was going to happen. Maybe have a word with them if that didn't suit.

I'm certain the Restaurants Assocaiation, and the wider public, would've expected any decision to be an informed one and not a guesstimate not based on reality.

Sofa King Great

TomTomTim wrote: »

That's one of the worst arguments I've heard on here. Your house is privately owned too, yet I can't do what I want in my house, I still have to follow the law.

If your house was being used as a HSE vaccination centre you'd have a valid point here

Northernlily

TomTomTim wrote: »

This mindset is effecting all policy in Ireland, not just COVID. Anything that exists outside of "accepted speech" or standards, will not be opposed, mainly due to cowardice. We truly have a broken democracy in this country.

Agree. Its been that way for a long time.

Russman

lawred2 wrote: »

Well in the circumstances I think the RAI might have been amenable to a few day's delay. Or do you not think so? Not that lobby groups get to dictate such deadlines to government anyway.

To be fair though, no matter what side of the debate you're on, if that had happened, there would have been an equal amount of whining on forums like this (which I suppose are ultimately meaningless anyway), about how ".......peoples livelihoods being at stake and these guys are waiting for more data, what more info do they need ?...." bla, bla, bla.