Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

lawred2

Russman wrote: »

To be fair though, no matter what side of the debate you're on, if that had happened, there would have been an equal amount of whining on forums like this (which I suppose are ultimately meaningless anyway), about how ".......peoples livelihoods being at stake and these guys are waiting for more data, what more info do they need ?...." bla, bla, bla.

you're probably right however that's a communication issue

namloc1980

gozunda wrote: »

They didn't have the data ergo the model wasn't outdated but more importantly the information presented was what what was relevant to a short delay in the opening of indoor dining and not several months down the line as more vaccines were being made available.

So time machine scenario it is them

Fair enough.

Ps. Highlighted bit - back to the old game of things never said?

You didn't read the NPHET letter did you? They modelled scenarios of indoor social mixing from the 5th of July, as was planned, up to end of Sept 2021. To do this without taking account of the NIAC advice on vaccines, which would significantly change the landscape, makes their scenarios from July-Sept redundant.

Maybe you should read the actual letter before commenting further.

Stormyteacup

gozunda wrote: »

Well done - you're argument was soundly trashed so now that's reverted to first position that they should have used a time machine and brought that data back in time so it could be already modeled on the same day it was announced. And all that despite the fact that a decision on the status of indoor dining was required asap? Brillant. You may also wish to look up how best case / worst case modeling is used btw.

You’ve invented the argument that people expected the modelling to be based on NIACs recent decision.

Not the case - simply querying why a speedier vaccine rollout wasn’t considered in any potential modelling scenario. You’ve determined that it’s a complicated metric to input to a modelling system. I disagree completely. They can theorise about rising R0 (though I believe this time they left R0 as current), they can input various close contact numbers for potential scenarios, different levels of base cases, various percentage of Delta proportionality - but it’s impossible to model for example a 20% faster vaccination rollout. A 20% faster vaccine schedule is as likely a postulate as a 20% increase in close contacts.

You can cling to the fact that NIAC rubber-stamped their decision at the same time as models were completed therefore the models couldn’t have included them. It’s completely true but it’s also completely irrelevant.

Anyway that’s only part of what is bonkers about the biased models presented to government. If it forces them to re-model with more accurate inputs it’s a good thing and will be very interesting to see how the updated models diverge from the ‘stark’ ones that put the fear of god into government on Tuesday.

gozunda

lawred2 wrote: »

Well in the circumstances I think the RAI might have been amenable to a few day's delay. Or do you not think so? Not that lobby groups get to dictate such deadlines to government anyway.

You sure about that? How many restaurateurs restaurants cafes which have to organise staff and perishable food etc would be amenable to suddenly saying yeah they didn't need a decision made ASAP. But yeah it was a "lobby group" which called for the Tuesday meeting. Maybe make a complaint.

Last week, the Restaurants Association of Ireland called on the Irish government to make a decision by Tuesday on whether all indoor entertainment will be allowed to resume from 5 July.

Beasty

Boggles wrote: »

II'm not sure they would entertain your myopic wholly unqualified musings, but sure you never know.

Let us know how you get on.

Do not post in this thread again

Zebra3

Shelga wrote: »

Anyone else feel like the vast majority of politicians are still too scared of coming out and saying they just don’t believe the CMO’s projections anymore, for fear of being portrayed as nutters?

Rather, they’re criticising things like indoor dining for vaccinated people only (which is obviously still worthy of criticism but detracts from the main issue).

It’s the emperor has no clothes on stuff.

Every gombeen politician waiting for someone else to call it out.

lawred2

gozunda wrote: »

You sure about that? How many restaurateurs restaurants cafes which have to organise staff and perishable food etc would be amenable to suddenly saying yeah they didn't need a decision made ASAP. But yeah it was a "lobby group" which called for the Tuesday meeting. Maybe make a complaint.

Are you sure about the opposite?

As for "Maybe make a complaint"

Is that trolling? Or bait posting? I don't quite understand what you're trying to achieve there. Are you holding the RAI responsible for government and NPHET timelines?

PTH2009

Let's hope we're now a step closer to the reopening of indoor hospitality by the end of the July

Still a lot of hurdles

gozunda

namloc1980 wrote: »

You didn't read the NPHET letter did you? They modelled scenarios of indoor social mixing from the 5th of July, as was planned, up to end of Sept 2021. To do this without taking account of the NIAC advice on vaccines, which would significantly change the landscape, makes their scenarios from July-Sept redundant. Maybe you should read the actual letter before commenting further.

Can you not accept you're completely off base on this now?

And again I see you're pushing the Time machine scenario that they should have included the data before they had it. Grand so.

And yes I read the letter. I was the first to post a link to it here afair. And when are restaurants being proposed to open following the delay? Atm mid to late July seems to on the cards all things going well.

Maybe you should look at all the information in context before commenting further.

gozunda

lawred2 wrote: »

Are you sure about the opposite?

Fairly sure tbh

Last week, the Restaurants Association of Ireland called on the Irish government to make a decision by Tuesday on whether all indoor entertainment will be allowed to resume from 5 July.

As for "Maybe make a complaint"
Is that trolling? Or bait posting? I don't quite understand what you're trying to achieve there. Are you holding the RAI responsible for government and NPHET timelines?

No simply a little it of exasperation But no matter. And again things which were never said :rolleyes:

lawred2

gozunda wrote: »

Fairly sure tbh






No simply a little it of exasperation. But no matter. And again things which were never said :rolleyes:

there's exasperation all round

Why should a complaint be made to the RAI?

Ballynally

funnydoggy wrote: »

Stephen "Trampoline" Donnelly on the radio with Pat "COVID plume" Kenny. No questioning the lies there, just disinformation and hysteria.

Balanced as f*ck.

Pat K was asking about the update of the DCC, the Green Cert. Donnelly replied that it will go 'live' on july19 as planned and then proceeded to talk about how great Ireland was w the vaccine rollout.
I expected Kenny to ask him what 'live' actually meant, but no, thats where it stopped..

Edit: it is a bit like it was w the delay of opening up.fr 5 to 19 july. Meaning: we'll see how we are by that time, not actually have anything concrete in place on that date.

facehugger99

TomTomTim wrote: »

This mindset is effecting all policy in Ireland, not just COVID. Anything that exists outside of "accepted speech" or standards, will not be opposed, mainly due to cowardice. We truly have a broken democracy in this country.

Too many people afraid of being labeled 'granny-killers'.

A politician will choose to spend tens of billions of euro rather than stand up to social-media abuse - sure why not, it's not their money they're spending.

gozunda

Stormyteacup wrote: »

You’ve invented the argument that people expected the modelling to be based on NIACs recent decision.

Nope. Not at all and not the case - it would appear that the general gist of the critics here was that Data was presented to cabinet without that information included or modelled.

Here's just one example

ACitizenErased wrote: »

....

Data was then presented to cabinet without that information included or modelled. There should have been scenarios included which factored in full vaccination of the population by August. What was shown to cabinet was a scenario where full vaccination of the population was not completed until September or October, as per previous projections. ...

So I'll leave the rest of your comment there as its not relevant

Patrick2010

PTH2009 wrote: »

Let's hope we're now a step closer to the reopening of indoor hospitality by the end of the July

Still a lot of hurdles

Can't see it, haven't you heard there's a covid hurricane on the way?. It'll be pushed out initially until after the bank holiday, then until after schools reopen. By that time there'll probably be another variant even more infectious.

cluelessbuyer9

PTH2009 wrote: »

Let's hope we're now a step closer to the reopening of indoor hospitality by the end of the July

Still a lot of hurdles

Deluded.



Maybe July 2022 if that's what you were referring to.

facehugger99

facehugger99 wrote: »

Too many people afraid of being labeled 'granny-killers'.

A politician will choose to spend tens of billions of euro rather than stand up to social-media abuse - sure why not, it's not their money they're spending.

Such a good point didn’t some politician say this more or less during the last year that they have to manage their social media profile likes etc. Real downside of social media if likes and shared are all that counts. Would it be a reason why other countries are ahead of us in the reopening not so dependent on social media just a thought could be a factor.

namloc1980

gozunda wrote: »

Can you not accept you're completely off base on this now?

And again I see you're pushing the Time machine scenario that they should have included the data before they had it. Grand so.

And yes I read the letter. I was the first to post a link to it here afair. And when are restaurants being proposed to open following the delay? Atm mid to late July seems to on the cards all things going well.

Maybe you should look at all the information in context before commenting further.

LoL. You got caught out badly there. You claimed:

..the information presented was what what was relevant to a short delay in the opening of indoor dining and not several months down the line as more vaccines were being made available.

The NPHET letter says otherwise and they did "model" several months down the line with indoor dining factored in. But not increased vaccinations (even as a scenario they should have modelled this in even without the exact details) or seasonality for that matter. Ouch, badly caught out.

gozunda

namloc1980 wrote: »

LoL. You got caught out badly there. You claimed:
The NPHET letter says otherwise and they did "model" several months down the line with indoor dining factored in.But not increased vaccinations (even as a scenario they should have modelled this in even without the exact details) or seasonality for that matter. Ouch, badly caught out.

Lol. Sure when in context you already know that what I referenced was to the NiAC recommendations not being factored in . You already quoted it btw

:..the information presented was what what was relevant to a short delay in the opening of indoor dining and not several months down the line as more vaccines were being made available.

Thats a miss I'm afraid.

Stormyteacup

gozunda wrote: »

Nope. Not at all and not the case - it would appear that the general gist of the critics here was that Data was presented to cabinet without that information included or modelled.

Here's just one example



So I'll leave the rest of your comment there as its not relevant.

Honestly? You’re disregarding the fact that a faster vaccination rollout was already a more than very likely scenario based on the last few weeks discussions with a reduction in gap for AZ and the work to implement same, coupled with the likelihood that NIAC would widen the recommendations for vaccines.

Even if it wasn’t rubber-stamped you really believe NPHET should not have run a model where the vaccination control variable was more favourable over the next three months?

gozunda

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Honestly? You’re disregarding the fact that a faster vaccination rollout was already a more than very likely scenario based on the last few weeks discussions with a reduction in gap for AZ and the work to implement same, coupled with the likelihood that NIAC would widen the recommendations for vaccines.Even if it wasn’t rubber-stamped you really believe NPHET should not have run a model where the vaccination control variable was more favourable over the next three months?

No. Simply a diatribe of could of/ should of / would of is just really not relevant to the issue where bizarrely some are still flogging a dead horse and thinking a time machine should have been employed by Tony et al. And no I'm not a supporter - but rather simply looking at what actually happened. But there we are.

I'll leave it there I think. There's only so much head bashing that's really possible.

Ballynally

To the back and forth posters above:
Nobody wants others to point out their mistakes and/or inconsistencies.
It does not fare well.
People will deny, deflect, re-construct and re-conceptualise.
There is one thing they wont but should do: REFLECT.
I have yet to find a person to admit they got something wrong and leave it at that.

Stormyteacup

gozunda wrote: »

No. Simply a diatribe of could of/ should of / would of is just really not relevant to the issue where bizarrely some are still flogging a dead horse and thinking a time machine should have been employed by Tony et al. And no I'm not a supporter - but rather simply looking at what actually happened. But there we are.

I'll leave it there I think. There's only so much head bashing that's really possible.

Yes head bashing indeed.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/dr-tony-holohan-has-asked-niac-if-unused-astrazeneca-vaccines-may-be-administered-to-20s-age-group-40576908.html

Tony Holohan busy working on speeding up vaccination rollout but decides not to include it as a factor in modelling for the next three months.

Yes, shall leave it at that then.

gozunda

Ballynally wrote: »

To the back and forth posters above:
Nobody wants others to point out their mistakes and/or inconsistencies.
It does not fare well.
People will deny, deflect, re-construct and re-conceptualise.
There is one thing they wont but should do: REFLECT.
I have yet to find a person to admit they got something wrong and leave it at that.

To be fair Ballynally. We could all write that about those who we don't agree with.

namloc1980

gozunda wrote: »

Thats a miss I'm afraid.

It's literally what you said. Embarrassing yourself now by denying what you yourself said.

is_that_so

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Yes head bashing indeed.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/dr-tony-holohan-has-asked-niac-if-unused-astrazeneca-vaccines-may-be-administered-to-20s-age-group-40576908.html

Tony Holohan busy working on speeding up vaccination rollout but decides not to include it as a factor in modelling for the next three months.

Yes, shall leave it at that then.

Not sure why he's doing that, it's a HSE purview and they've been the ones working with NIAC.

gozunda

namloc1980 wrote: »

It's literally what you said. Embarrassing yourself now by denying what you yourself said.

Thing is about feelings of embarrassment - is that you cannot project them on to others. Only yourself.

But yes it is what I said and it goes to disprove what you're trying to claim. But no matter. Leaving it there. Ta.

LeeroyJ.

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1410586796111667201?s=20


67% 1-Dose would put us ahead of Israel, the UK and the US and 45% 2-Dose is about equal to the US and the UK. Kind of mad that we still have one of the strictest lockdowns in the western world. You have to applaud the vaccine effort, but it raises the question as to what exactly is the endgame here

0lddog

Anyone listen to BBC R4 'World at One' today ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000xfgz

Skip to around 18:45

The Brits have finally got it !

FileNotFound

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

This is from the time when the Alpha variant was emerging at the very end of 2020. It's as good an explanation as I've seen about why increased transmissibility is so serious for the public health situation.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/

Interesting read, but a few too many maybe's really in it.

There is no doubt that a virus with higher transmissability carries higher risk.


However this conversation is really how can one justify taking the risk last year (and it worked out fine for the summer) with no immunity while now we run scared with some immunity in a large proportion of the population.

Also we have to look at Ireland (most large cities carry 1-3 times our population sometimes way more) yet are open with higher density and thus easier spread for the virus. But we have decided to lead the way in hiding away.


I have been a strong proponent of taking the safe option, but based on how last summer went with indoor dining open, the now utter indifference to restrcitions of many, the increased immunity in our population through both vaccination and infection, the current low levels in hospitals, the information from the UK that high case load is not meaning high hospitalisation or death.

I just still cannot understand the standout modelling leading us - unless it is from a point of absolute fear .

I mean I watched 1000's in stadiums on tv and no nations is being overwhelmed???

Theoretical worst case based on unknown/unspecified data, is not in line with actual reality now. Thats my real concern. We have the worlds biggest case stufy next door - we can just keep an eye on that and react accordingly.

Now maybe I am wrong and am happy to be shown anything that says so - if the proof is there I will even back us going into full lockdown. Alas I haven't come across anything to support our current course.


It has always been save the at risk and don't overwhelm the hospitals - when did case numbers become the new game??