Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362207#Comment_118362207

Well the optimistic for Omicron was 7k cases a day

Going by positive swabs today we hit that

It's the pessimistic for Omicron (20000)that may be off

Their earlier projections pre Omicron were well off

Be interesting to see how their projections for Omicron hospitalisations pan out though.

I see Philip Nolan is already tweeting that early signs are not good

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362292#Comment_118362292

He seems to be more about extreme caution and accepts that we don't know about the impact on hospitals yet.

copeyhagen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362173#Comment_118362173

schools are closed dude

kirk.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people

I reckon the British public will lead us back to normality

Even us sheep over here will eventually want their freedom back

Heading into a 3rd year now with boosters and masks for kids

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362327#Comment_118362327

And that's Owen Jones writing that. Not exactly easily dismissed as some "right wing anti vaxer"

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362318#Comment_118362318

Agreed but tbh I'm sick of his endless essays on twitter.

Particularly when he doesn't seem to get much right a lot of the time

facehugger99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362327#Comment_118362327

I don't really consume any Irish media and it is incredible how different the UK have been in their approach to Covid. They have MPs who openly question the value of restriction and the economic costs and side-effects of them.

We appear to have nothing but a bunch of cowards happy to sit at the trough, keeping their heads down while the debt racks up - all well insulated from the coming shitstorm. And all the while the media just pumps out the hysteria 24\7, happy to be getting the clicks and HSE advertising revenue. It's galling to observe.

The problem is a lot of Irish people are incredibly insular and have no idea what's going on in other countries, other than what RTE chooses to tell them.

kirk.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362354#Comment_118362354

There'll have to be riots on top

Sure the media is only watching the way the wind is blowing

Robots in power are shutting society down over nothing

AlekSmart

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118359565#Comment_118359565

Very true,and so relevant to the situation we now find ourselves in.

Yet,France was to the fore in the "coalition" which dragged the likes of Libya back to the fuedal state it currently exists in.

In the midst of all the posturing about how Evil General Gadaffi was,none of the wealthy western leaderships bothered with the very good reasons why he was (and remains) well regarded in his own country.

https://www.dandc.eu/en/article/libya-has-worlds-largest-irrigation-project

Except for the green and fertile strip along the Mediterranean coast, Libya is mainly a huge desert with a few scattered oases. Rain falls only on five percent of its surface. There is not a single river that would carry water the whole year round. Water scarcity has always been a huge problem.

I can imagine the level of decision making amongst those suave developed World leaders as they signed off on the Military actions required to oust their then new "least-favoured" despotic leader...

So far, Libya has managed to build the GMMR without financial support from other countries or loans from banks. Taxes on tobacco and fuel contributed to mobilise money, and of course oil revenues helped. The total costs of the GMMR amount to more than $ 36 billion so far. By 2007, three out of five project phases were implemented, providing all major cities with water. Phase four has made good progress, but further construction was put on hold because of the revolution in 2011 and on-going civil war ever since.

The Libyan and many other African peoples have damn good reason to be reticent about what Western "assistance" actually amounts to,something which many,in their rush to be on message,continually fail to appreciate.

In the course of the civil war, the GMMR has suffered severe damage. During the revolution in 2011, NATO airplanes bombed water ducts in Brega. They also targeted a pipe factory, possibly in order to cut off Gaddafi’s forces from their water supply. More recently, sabotage actions took place in the south. In March 2017, the GMMR administration issued a warning that repeated assaults on wells at Jabal Hasawna might completely stop the water flow to Tripoli and other north-western cities.

Either way,our incredibly unified Western Covid response,is so well embedded on it's course to allow us all to return to (a new) normality,that few of us are capable of seeing the developing trends in how we are going to be assisted in this....and you can be damn sure the World's Banks via the Pharmacuticals,will be well embedded in the financing of these adventures...we'll not be having any truck with despot African leader's attitudes to self-financing.

I declare this rant now ended 🤠

Faugheen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362458#Comment_118362458

The modelling is based on if everything stays the same - including the amount of people who have got vaccines.

Why does this point have to be made every single time?

People here don’t want to know because it doesn’t suit their agenda.

You can say there is too much emphasis put on the modelling (which there is) without making up lies.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362537#Comment_118362537

The problem is that nobody ever remembers or brings up the specific times Nolan is wrong - which is in the hundreds of times at this stage. And that's without even mentioning his calling antigen tests "snake oil" (but who, in his recent round of tweets, mentions people using those precise tests).

Let's not forget what Nolan said only 4-weeks ago.

Its possible [there will be 450 people in ICU by Christmas day] but we are trying now to do everything we can to evert that scenario.

Current total in ICU: 100 people

The man hasn't a clue.

Then, there's today.

Nolan tweeted the following:

https://twitter.com/PhilipNolan_MU/status/1473712001494966275

But we do know how seriously ill people will become with Omicron.

We knew it almost a month ago with the South African data.

Lately, we knew it with the London data.

Today, data from Scotland shows that Omicron has a two-thirds less likely risk of causing hospitalisation.

Statistician he may be, but as a "public health expert", the man is clueless. Loves the position and the status and all that comes with it, but in real terms, pretty useless at this position.

Beechwoodspark

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362458#Comment_118362458

Can you list out your qualifications in public health there Eskimo and we will make up our own minds. Thanks

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362623#Comment_118362623

Nolan's modelling has been catastrophically wrong. Not marginally wrong, but catastrophically wrong.

He was the primary reason that restrictions remained throughout the summer. His nonsense modelling was the direct cause. Maybe you should have a word with Nolan about his public health expertise and qualifications that led to such a disastrous performance. Most of the population were against this "public health expert" and we turned out to be right, and he turned out to be wrong. There's nothing amazing about public health expertise; you don't require 10 Masters degree to work out what to do.

Furthermore, this is what Nolan considers public health advice that only he and other PhD academics can teach us; you know, the kinds of detail that us silly little people without PhDs wouldn't have a clue about.

https://twitter.com/PhilipNolan_MU/status/1473712728279822344

To me, this tweet is totally patronising.

If you are willing to elevate Philip Nolan as some bastion of public health expertise, that's well within your right.

For me, all the evidence - every single scintilla of it - points in the opposite direction.

AlekSmart

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360058#Comment_118360058

It's far from a Joke.

the good Doctor's participation in this jape will have been decided upon and managed to the smallest detail by one of the NPHET "Sub Groups"..."Behavioural Change",and where better to start than with Children..."Give me the Child until he is 7,and I will show you the Man"

https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/3008f6-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-nphet-covid-19-subgroup-be/

At this juncture,it's unlikely the current CMO will suddenly decide to revert to normality himself,and so,by association,neither will anybody else.

Covid itself,is and has been for a long while,a busted flush in terms of a Public Health Emergency.

However,none of the many and various restrictions and the Public's widespread unquestioning acceptance of them was anything other than well planned and executed.

He's a celebrity,get him outa there,would be an appropriate show to keep the thing grinding onwards ?

Hego Damask

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362354#Comment_118362354

Exactly, gives me a lot of hope to see someone like Owen Jones writing that...

Hego Damask

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362446#Comment_118362446

Remember other countries aren't great either - Spain just reintroduced mandatory mask rules - for outdoors.

It's insane, most countries in europe are embracing authoritarianism , the only sensible places seems Florida and some other red states.

I would be there in a heartbeat if the option existed.

Faugheen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362581#Comment_118362581

You just ignored everything I said about the modelling being based on if absolutely nothing changes.

And shock horror instead of acknowledging this, you go off rambling on something I never actually said.

Why are you posting this nonsense when I told you that the modelling is based on if nothing changes?

Let's look at what has changed in the four weeks since Nolan made those remarks.

1. More restrictions have come in
2. People are working from home again.
3. More people are getting booster vaccines
4. Whether you like it or not, a lot of people are absolutely changing their behaviour because they would rather spend Christmas with their families.

Yet you're saying 'he was wrong because he said this would happen if nothing changed' when it has completely changed. This has always been the way.

You are making completely unqualified remarks because it suits whatever warped agenda you have.

Like I said, there is too much emphasis put on the modelling (and this is nothing more than an excuse for the government) but you, the man who likes to base things on science, are now denying science. Why? Because it doesn't suit the point you want to make.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362697#Comment_118362697

I support the science from South Africa, from London, and from Scotland concerning the impact of the Omicron variant.

This is the best source of data available, and is a far better reflection of what to do with the variant rather than relying on speculation, conjecture, and the false assumption that the Omicron variant has the same severity as Delta or Alpha.

And we knew most of this data before the latest restrictions came in, so you can't hide behind that as an excuse either.

I am indeed following the science, it's a pity that Philip Nolan isn't.

Faugheen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362709#Comment_118362709

Let me say this to you again, so you can get it into your head.

The modelling

is based on

if no changes

were made

whatsoever

None. Zero. Zilch. Not even an extra vaccine.

Why are you lying about the modelling when you either haven't the first clue about it or you are completely ignoring it?

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362264#Comment_118362264

Ok where did you come up with that? Is there a source for your findings

I ask because religious cults usually make stuff up on the internet about our experts in an attempt to boost registration numbers

323

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362177#Comment_118362177

Yep, Last months conspiracy theory (third jab), today's reality. Fourth jab now on the way and covid passport chip implant being announced today.

AlekSmart

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360191#Comment_118360191

You may,sadly be far more accurate than many realize.

Much of the Western Worlds Pandemic Response has long ago moved on from "Protecting citizens" and all that jazz.

The focus now is on Behavioural & Attitudinal change,and how to achieve that without undue expense.

But,the reality is of having been down this tunnel many many times before,and always with the same result.

1979 Rolling Stone article,long but WELL worth reading....

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/in-the-valley-of-the-shadow-of-death-guyana-after-the-jonestown-massacre-242259/

The whole process – this denial of the tower’s function – reminded me of George Orwell’s 1984, in which the Party re-forms language in such a way as to make “heretical thought” impossible. The language is called Newspeak and makes abundant use of euphemisms. In Newspeak, a forced labor camp is called a “joycamp.” The guard tower at Jonestown was the architectural equivalent of Newspeak.

OTT ?....currently yes,but it is a very short,funnel shaped road leading to the Dead End.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362723#Comment_118362723

That's simply unpersuasive.

Let's take 2 examples.

(a) At the time that restrictions were being recommended during summer, you - or your equivalent at the time - could have argued exactly the same point; in which case, restrictions would have continued.

(b) Second, we can relate our COVID-19 experience to other, similar countries who did not impose such restrictions - such as the United Kingdom. This shows that these restrictions are totally unnecessary.

So it's all good to say that Philip Nolan's scenarios (technically they're not 'predictions' because his 'scenarios' are based on certain assumptions - which have also been shown to be false assumptions) are proposed 'if nothing was done', but that's to live in a vacuum. When you consider points (a) and (b) above, we can see why there are significant reasons to be suspect about the way he and others are conducting their so-called "modelling".

AlekSmart

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360433#Comment_118360433

The fact is,the authorities choose NOT to provide such data.

Exercising that choice is VERY relevant to the direction we have been told to take.

Fear of the unknown.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362165#Comment_118362165

it does appear that some here have given over so much space in their heads for someone to live in that they have no space left when it comes to critical reasoning.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362735#Comment_118362735

Again, things that happen are not a conspiracy.

You have to explain why they're happening.

The chips (RFID) have existed for a few years already and have been used for lots of things (and they also exist on most phones that people carry around 24/7...), annual boosters have been talked about from the start (question is whether it'll be more than annual, but this will be based on the science).

Don't Chute!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362623#Comment_118362623

Should you not be busy nailing all the doors shut in case your murderous sister gets in?

AlekSmart

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362723#Comment_118362723

Ah the primacy of modelling,and modellers.....another growth era in the Pandemic industry.

The British Pandemic establishment are in a bit of a tizzy after the Spectator magazine's editor managed to get a bit of info from an unguarded Modeller,info that did'nt do a whole lot for the "Science" of Modelling...at all ,at all.....😁

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19799463.bbc-criticised-interview-spectator-editor-covid-modelling/

Fraser Scott's crime,as it now seems,was to ask the gifted,well qualfied professional academic some questions the lad down t'pub might ask if he were to sit beside the Modeller on the 19 bus....

The Pandemic Insustry is doing all it can to fill the media with as much TLDR output,in order to prevent the dopey proletariat from focusing their rheumy eyes on a single line in the interview...

The contentious point came when Medley told Nelson that his team "generally model what we are asked to model" by those setting government policy with a dialogue about what would be best to inform decisions.

It may well be science Faugheen,just not as we know it ? 😃 😃

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362766#Comment_118362766

If we do relate our COVID-19 experience to our near neighbour the U.K. it shows that they U.K., who were very slow at introducing restrictions initially, have twice the death per capita we have.

I do not know what assumptions the U.K. made with modelling, but their daily new case have risen from 50,004 to more than double that today at 106,122.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362811#Comment_118362811

And, as I've already said, when Nolan came along demanding extra restrictions because of flawed modelling throughout summer, his modelling was heeded.

We knew at the time he was embarrassingly wrong, not least because of what was happening right across the European continent.

Now, everyone knows it - including politicians, who are more than ever talking about how wrong we were to listen to Nolan's projections of hospitalisations at the height of summer.

The same principle applies here. He and others are ignoring, for whatever reason, the data from South Africa and London (and presumably now Scotland).

And as more days pass, even more evidence (as we predicted) has come to light that Omicron is indeed less severe on the whole; that it's not, as per one of the assumptions in Nolan's modelling, of the same or similar severity to the Alpha or Delta variant.

Modelling is only as good as its assumptions. If an assumption is wrong, the modelling is by default wrong - yet the restrictions will continue.

It's flawed, highly flawed - and represents a pattern over the past couple of years.

But Michael Martin doesn't want to be the politician to preside over some hospital catastrophe (which is an empty fear, regardless), so he blindly follows NPHET for political purposes. NPHET, too, are covering their own backsides because they, too, don't want to be seen to do anything wrong - so they overdo it, and clearly ignore data on the ground in other parts of the world. It's a toxic spiral. Better to overdo it, than underdo it, is their position.

This isn't evidence-based science, let alone "following the science".

It's old fashioned politics and nothing more.

You talk about facts. These are the facts - the scientific and political facts.