Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Ballynally

timmyntc wrote: »

We already are seeing big case numbers there, hospitalisations are still very very low.
And overwhelmingly in over 40s anyways (who are vaccinated).
Young people, even while unvaccinated are at negligible risk from the virus.

Atm, afaik, the official NHS numbers for age devide the under and over 50s.
Imo that over 50s grouping is too large. If we leave co morbidities aside, it might be suggested that, like previous waves and variants it is mainly the elderly who suffer severe symptoms and death due to their impaired immune system despite being vaccinated. Those numbers are still pretty low despite the rise in cases. Under 50s are much less likely to suffer prolonged symptoms and death. The younger you get the safer you are and the safest group are the under 50s with full vaccinations, having led to zero deaths in the UK so far.
It is all a matter of scale. In the UK they seem to understand that.
In Ireland, well..

gozunda

TefalBrain wrote: »

BBC World news had an expert on yesterday that stated the virus is no more dangerous now than a common cold for unvaccintated under 40's. Hospital numbers in the UK have seen no surge or even risen that much in the last few weeks. He also added that although Delta is more transmissible it is it anything less dangerous than the original Covid strain of the virus.

Don't expect RTÉ to have views like that expressed on radio or TV under threat from their main revenue provider at present the government

Out of interest - which 'expert' was that? The last guy who they had on was a consulting sociologist - if that's him he may be an expert but I wouldn't be consulting him about covid tbh.

ElTel

suicide_circus wrote: »

A change of rhetoric from our Aussie bretheren it seems;

https://mobile.twitter.com/10NewsFirstMelb/status/1410796394932105218

The ammo is mounting for MM to finally grow a pair and put Nphet back in it's box.
LV more likely to but will he?

Hurrache

normanoffside wrote: »

There is tomorrow at 12 at the GPO

https://www.instagram.com/p/CQuSSY0nPDL/

Seems like "Trust your gut" may have taken the same approach to all things in life, sure who needs education when you have your gut.

timmyntc

Hurrache wrote: »

Seems like "Trust your gut" may have taken the same approach to all things in life, sure who needs education when you have your gut.

Would you say Tony is trusting his gut when recommending demanding we dont relax restrictions?

Because the flawed modelling data certainly implies a lack of education

Hurrache

Chivito550 wrote: »

Folks, RTE have been massively propped up by HSE ad revenue over the last year. There's a clear conflict of interest at play. Surprised many can't see this.

BBC doesn't receive ad revenue. There's the difference.

You might want to take a bit more of a look into that with regards to the relationships between the BBC and the Tories.

MOH

Except that most of the increases have been seen in the younger cohorts that aren't yet vaccinated. Unless you're suggesting that we're vaccinating fast enough to outpace the 60% transmission increase from Delta. In which case, how would it "make no difference" if we started vaccinating even faster?

gozunda wrote: »

And the fact is that case numbers unfortunately are not declining as has been expected

Except the fact is that case number have declined much faster than expected.

7-day average Apr 1: 549 / May 1: 461 / Jun 28 (doom letter day): 324

Regardless of when you want to start counting Delta as having first entered the country, between then and June 28th when Tony told us it's at 55%, cases dropped dramatically.

I would suggest that the six and 8 month lows you've given extend well beyond the period when Delta was first detected here - therefore using either as an reference point to Delta infections is somewhat incongruous

How is it incongruous to point out that despite Delta becoming the dominant variant, it hasn't prevented all major metrics dropping to levels not seen since before Christmas?

But no I do not believe that "everyone is wrong about the increased transmissibility" or "that the estimates of the current prevalence of Delta in Ireland is wrong , or all our figures are unreliable to the point of uselessness"

Well, it still has to be one of those unless you have an alternative. My money is on the last one.

We know Delta has spread rapidly in the UK, a region we share an open border with. We also know we have active cases here. We also know that the detection of the new variant is ongoing.

This article gives a fairly good overview of how Delta was first tracked here.

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1230774/

[/quote]
We share a border with Northern Ireland. The one area of the UK which has seen no increase in hospitalisations due to Delta. (Also the one area that is neither participating in or hosting an international football tournament).

That article is very interesting, thanks, since it seems to be saying that basically we're not tracking Delta at all. We're tracking Alpha, and assuming that as Alpha prevalence falls it's being replaced by Delta. So basically it's all pure speculation.

This section in particular stands out as a perfect example of RTEs reporting on Covid:

When the whole-genome sequencing is completed for last week, it’s possible more than 100 Delta cases will be associated with it.

That’s a significant increase: As of last Thursday, there had been 188 cases of Delta in total confirmed in Ireland.

Wow! Cases up by over 50% in one week?! That sounds scary!
... Except they're comparing possible (not even probable) cases with confirmed cases. It's in no way a "significant increase", it's not even a valid comparison.
Holohan's letter from 5 days later states a total of 220 confirmed cases to date.
And also notes 80 confirmed and 80 probable cases over the previous six weeks.
But sure those kind of numbers won't monger the fear quite as much.

Hurrache

timmyntc wrote: »

Would you say Tony is trusting his gut when recommending demanding we dont relax restrictions?

Because the flawed modelling data certainly implies a lack of education

The government makes the decision, like they always have. If you made a mistake in your first take, it would have been quicker for you to delete rather than strike through.

is_that_so

timmyntc wrote: »

We already are seeing big case numbers there, hospitalisations are still very very low.
And overwhelmingly in over 40s anyways (who are vaccinated).
Young people, even while unvaccinated are at negligible risk from the virus.

There is unquestionably an argument to use case rates as a starting point to predict potential hospitalisations but when that level is very low it also needs to feed back into the assumptions. In our own case we've been at a level of 300-400 cases a day yet hospital rates have declined significantly. NPHET continue to use the 5 day rate etc as justification for their stance but it doesn't look like that risk is there any more.

timmyntc

Hurrache wrote: »

The government makes the decision, like they always have. If you made a mistake in your first take, it would have been quicker for you to delete rather than strike through.

I never said Tony made the decision - re-read my post, it was clearly lost on you.
And the strike through is for emphasis, not mistakes.

MOR316

Hurrache wrote: »

Seems like "Trust your gut" may have taken the same approach to all things in life, sure who needs education when you have your gut.

I'm unsure of your tone here. It's quite cutting and insulting to many and I can't understand why and where it's coming

Out of curiousity, can I ask what's your particular issue with that protest/gathering?
A sizable majority are fed up, frustrated, financially and mentally broken, no one is calling the Government or NPHET out on certain decisions...It's very understandable to me why such a thing was organised. As long as there's no trouble or violence at it, I'm really not sure what the problem is here?

If you haven't been affected by things as badly as others and you're happy out, great. I just don't see why you're venting about something that has zero bearing on you. They're not breaking any laws

Can you explain to me please?

Red Silurian

facehugger99 wrote: »

Top 5 stories on BBN News Website

• Forces to quit Afghanistan Base
• Boy Scouts Sex Abuse Compensation
• Lebanon Energy Crisis
• Toppling of statues in Canada
• Microsoft Windows Operating System update

Top 3 Stories on RTE News Website

• Vaccine for Younger people
• India Covid death toll passes 400k
• Australia tighten borders to curb Virus

People are being played for fools in this country and there are many too stupid to even see it.

Looks to me like RTE are just reporting the news, but each to their own

is_that_so

Now this is what the CMO is worried about!

British teenagers are using TikTok to learn and share tips for faking positive Covid-19 tests as hundreds of thousands of pupils in “bubbles” are already being forced to miss school.

https://inews.co.uk/news/technology/tiktok-fake-covid-positive-test-schools-1079693

DarkJager21

Red Silurian wrote: »

Looks to me like RTE are just reporting the news, but each to their own

RTE are a cog in the machine for government and NPHET, the poster is outlining that all of their top stories are purely there to crank the fear machine. Other countries barely register Covid related news but our disgustingly incompetent media can do nothing more than act as a hype man for it.

Ballynally

facehugger99 wrote: »

Top 5 stories on BBN News Website

• Forces to quit Afghanistan Base
• Boy Scouts Sex Abuse Compensation
• Lebanon Energy Crisis
• Toppling of statues in Canada
• Microsoft Windows Operating System update

Top 3 Stories on RTE News Website

• Vaccine for Younger people
• India Covid death toll passes 400k
• Australia tighten borders to curb Virus

People are being played for fools in this country and there are many too stupid to even see it.

Same in the rest of Europe. Covid is a side issue on many national websites atm.Still there but not headlining, despite Delta.
Ireland IS the only country with full, constant Covid profiling, designated time slot every day on RTE w actors keeping it in your face, online, on TV and radio.
It is so interesting to see the juxtaposition between ourselves and everyone else.
Now, what wouldve happened if a different CMO w have taken a more relaxed view with support for the relaxation of restrictions but keeping an eye on future developments? The government wouldve proceeded w the july5 opening, taking the country in a more positive direction and THAT would imo have been fully supported by RTE as well.
George Lee et al wouldve come on and be the messenger of hope.
Instead we got TH and the rock of doom and the message was swallowed wholesale..

MOR316

is_that_so wrote: »

Now this is what the CMO is worried about!


https://inews.co.uk/news/technology/tiktok-fake-covid-positive-test-schools-1079693

Tony Holohan on Karaoke nights...

"I'm too sexy for the Tok! Too sexy for the Tok, too sexy for TikTok!"

Patrick2010

The figure for those fully vaccinated and hopefully more or less fully protected is 45% and c 70% who have had one dose and would have a high degree of protection also. The unknown figure must be those who were infected but had no symptoms. There must be a lot in the younger age group like this who have had no vaccination yet but presumably are carrying antibodies. When you add these to those vaccinated there must be a very high level of protection in the general population yet Nephet only focus on the vaccinated figure.

Red Silurian

DarkJager21 wrote: »

RTE are a cog in the machine for government and NPHET, the poster is outlining that all of their top stories are purely there to crank the fear machine. Other countries barely register Covid related news but our disgustingly incompetent media can do nothing more than act as a hype man for it.

Ah of course... That sounds completely logical and not at all like what a crank in a fear machine would say

is_that_so

Patrick2010 wrote: »

The figure for those fully vaccinated and hopefully more or less fully protected is 45% and c 70% who have had one dose and would have a high degree of protection also. The unknown figure must be those who were infected but had no symptoms. There must be a lot in the younger age group like this who have had no vaccination yet but presumably are carrying antibodies. When you add these to those vaccinated there must be a very high level of protection in the general population yet Nephet only focus on the vaccinated figure.

They are focusing on what has happened in the UK and projecting it to happen here and their real interest is in case rates.

Ballynally

Red Silurian wrote: »

Looks to me like RTE are just reporting the news, but each to their own

Yes, you are right.
Just like they are reporting the Truth.
You know, following the Science..
In case you didnt get that, i meant it ironically..

is_that_so

Patrick2010 wrote: »

The figure for those fully vaccinated and hopefully more or less fully protected is 45% and c 70% who have had one dose and would have a high degree of protection also. The unknown figure must be those who were infected but had no symptoms. There must be a lot in the younger age group like this who have had no vaccination yet but presumably are carrying antibodies. When you add these to those vaccinated there must be a very high level of protection in the general population yet Nephet only focus on the vaccinated figure.

They are focusing on what has happened in the UK and projecting it to happen here and their real interest is in case rates.

DarkJager21

Red Silurian wrote: »

Ah of course... That sounds completely logical and not at all like what a crank in a fear machine would say

If you can't see it, you can't see it.

FlubberJones

Red Silurian wrote: »

Ah of course... That sounds completely logical and not at all like what a crank in a fear machine would say

In your opinion possibly.....

But the point made earlier that Ire news has very little interest in showing anything but COVID was well made.

Red Silurian

Ballynally wrote: »

Yes, you are right.
Just like they are reporting the Truth.
You know, following the Science..
In case you didnt get that, i meant it ironically..

What reports specifically don't follow the science? Can you link me to one example of this in the last 2 weeks?

DarkJager21 wrote: »

If you can't see it, you can't see it.

Because it's not there, because it's not there...

FlubberJones wrote: »

In your opinion possibly.....

But the point made earlier that Ire news has very little interest in showing anything but COVID was well made.

Do you people actually realise how stupid you all sound? I'd be embarrassed to type that kinda tripe online

lawrencesummers

namloc1980 wrote: »

They had a full house for the snooker final in Sheffield 2 months ago. We still can't have any organised indoor events except for, bizarrely enough, weddings.

Don’t forget that indoor dining resumed in Ireland on the 2nd of June.




Granted that it was very effectively protected against covid because the patrons were dining in a building that also had mattresses which clearly protects people from contracting the virus as there haven’t been any notable outbreaks in the hotels of Ireland since they opened a month ago.

FlubberJones

Red Silurian wrote: »

What reports specifically don't follow the science? Can you link me to one example of this in the last 2 weeks?



Because it's not there, because it's not there...



Do you people actually realise how stupid you all sound? I'd be embarrassed to type that kinda tripe online

Lol... another clown just sitting on the fence... adding NOTHING

gozunda

Quags wrote: »

The "Delta" variant has a case fatality rate of 0.1% (Public Health England, 11 June 2021).
The true infection fatality rate is lower than this.
Common symptoms are said to include a headache, sore throat and runny nose.
In other words, it is a cold.

I think you may be mixing up initial symptoms and the risk of illness from a covid infection.

While many may experience only a mild infection - its certainly not 'a cold'

In the UK Meanwhile, infections from Delta are reported to be growing by between 2% and 5% each day.

Those at risk from more serious illness includes those who have had just one dose of vaccine as well as those who have none.

Here's some first hand accounts of those who have been infected with the Delta variant and found it was not a "cold"

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-sky-news-correspondent-enda-24438092

https://9now.nine.com.au/today/coronavirus-sydney-adam-marshall-describes-symptoms-after-being-diagnosed-with-delta-strain/9b666799-55a4-4151-8c12-82251b6d105b

Ballynally

Red Silurian wrote: »

What reports specifically don't follow the science? Can you link me to one example of this in the last 2 weeks?



Because it's not there, because it's not there...



Do you people actually realise how stupid you all sound? I'd be embarrassed to type that kinda tripe online

sorry, i take it all back.I guess im too stupid to understand.
Thank you for your considered response.
Now, where is that ignore button!?

DarkJager21

Red Silurian wrote: »

What reports specifically don't follow the science? Can you link me to one example of this in the last 2 weeks?



Because it's not there, because it's not there...



Do you people actually realise how stupid you all sound? I'd be embarrassed to type that kinda tripe online

I'd be embarrased to be as blind as you are as to what is going on. It's media manipulation of the worst kind and you are falling for it hook line and sinker. Questions popped up at the start of the week around the accuracy of the NPHET modelling that delayed reopening, and suddenly RTE etc go in to full blown doom mongering mode? They might be fooling some but thank **** some people in this country are finally opening their eyes to the bull**** we are being peddled. The media in this country should hang their heads in shame, not a single journalist among them with the balls or integrity to start asking serious questions about this. Nope, just nod along with Tony and MM and peddle the ****e.

Red Silurian

FlubberJones wrote: »

Lol... another clown just sitting on the fence... adding NOTHING

Better than a clown adding lies and propoganda