Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Red Silurian

DarkJager21 wrote: »

I'd be embarrased to be as blind as you are as to what is going on. It's media manipulation of the worst kind and you are falling for it hook line and sinker. Questions popped up at the start of the week around the accuracy of the NPHET modelling that delayed reopening, and suddenly RTE etc go in to full blown doom mongering mode? They might be fooling some but thank **** some people in this country are finally opening their eyes to the bull**** we are being peddled. The media in this country should hang their heads in shame, not a single journalist among them with the balls or integrity to start asking serious questions about this. Nope, just nod along with Tony and MM and peddle the ****e.

Yes, all the media are wrong and a few conspiracy theorists on boards are right... Sounds logical haha

Got that link by any chance?

FlubberJones

Red Silurian wrote: »

Better than a clown adding lies and propoganda

At least we agree you're a clown.

Red Silurian

FlubberJones wrote: »

At least we agree you're a clown.

If the likes of you think I'm a clown then clearly I'm doing something right

DarkJager21

Red Silurian wrote: »

Yes, all the media are wrong and a few conspiracy theorists on boards are right... Sounds logical haha

The media cannot be trusted, they have proven that a number of times in the course of this pandemic. It's the government/NPHET line and nothing else, no dissenting opinions or hard questions allowed. It's people like you who happily swallow this bull**** that are the reason they get away with it.

Red Silurian

Ballynally wrote: »

sorry, i take it all back.I guess im too stupid to understand.
Thank you for your considered response.
Now, where is that ignore button!?

Click my username in the top left corner, it's one of the last options on the list

Ballynally

DarkJager21 wrote: »

I'd be embarrased to be as blind as you are as to what is going on. It's media manipulation of the worst kind and you are falling for it hook line and sinker. Questions popped up at the start of the week around the accuracy of the NPHET modelling that delayed reopening, and suddenly RTE etc go in to full blown doom mongering mode? They might be fooling some but thank **** some people in this country are finally opening their eyes to the bull**** we are being peddled. The media in this country should hang their heads in shame, not a single journalist among them with the balls or integrity to start asking serious questions about this. Nope, just nod along with Tony and MM and peddle the ****e.

i suggest you put him on the ignore list like i did.
No need to get aggravated.
My ignore list has grown quite nicely. Almost incrementally.Life is so much better..
Edit: it is fact so nice to see a hidden post so i dont have to read it..

Red Silurian

Ballynally wrote: »

i suggest you put him on the ignore list like i did.
No need to get aggravated.
My ignore has grown quite nicely. Almost incrementally.Life is so much better..

A big ignore list probably says more about you than anybody you ignored

DarkJager21

Ballynally wrote: »

i suggest you put him on the ignore list like i did.
No need to get aggravated.
My ignore has grown quite nicely. Almost incrementally.Life is so much better..

Na I'm not putting anyone on ignore, I have no problem with him (we simply disagree on the media role in all of this scaremongering). Nothing gets solved by putting fingers in your ears.

Hurrache

MOR316 wrote: »

I'm unsure of your tone here. It's quite cutting and insulting to many and I can't understand why and where it's coming

Out of curiousity, can I ask what's your particular issue with that protest/gathering?

I'll be more cutting and blunt, they're idiots all over the kip with their ideology, or lack of, as they haven't really a notion as to what's connected to what.

Where are you getting your sizable majority notion from? Everyone is fed up, but not to the point where they all just want to sit in a pub regardless.

But sure their gut feeling....

gozunda wrote: »

I think you may be mixing up initial symptoms and the risk of illness from a covid infection.

While many may experience only a mild infection - its certainly not 'a cold'

In the UK Meanwhile, infections from Delta are reported to be growing by between 2% and 5% each day.

Parts if NI are now also at their highest rate since January. But sure people will try find a way to bull**** those figures.

Anybody who believes COVID-19 at this stage is equivalent to a cold is being disingenuous. How many hospitalisations does the common cold cause?

Red Silurian

DarkJager21 wrote: »

Na I'm not putting anyone on ignore, I have no problem with him (we simply disagree on the media role in all of this scaremongering). Nothing gets solved by putting fingers in your ears.

At least we can agree ignorance gets you nowhere... Did you manage to find evidence of the below? You knwo the proof that RTE are not following the science? All it takes is one article from the last 2 weeks

Ballynally wrote: »

Yes, you are right.
Just like they are reporting the Truth.
You know, following the Science..
In case you didnt get that, i meant it ironically..

FileNotFound

Red Silurian wrote: »

Yes, all the media are wrong and a few conspiracy theorists on boards are right... Sounds logical haha

Got that link by any chance?

In fairness people are looking at the UK with 60,000 people events and not overwhelming of hospitals and a decreasing R number.

Demanding links when faced with reality isn't going to help win your argument.

I sit on the side of - if the restrictions are justified - whats the point at which they won't be needed - seems the Gov and NPHET haven't figured that one out somehow.

Is the whole EU and UK ignoring all the science or is our interpretation using the worst possible scenarios? What are the best case on the models (not made available).


When our nation becomes an outlier people are right to question why - if you have the proof that all other nations are wrong throw up all the links there and everyone can learn from you.

facehugger99

Red Silurian wrote: »

Looks to me like RTE are just reporting the news, but each to their own

In fairness, it'd be difficult to come up with a better illustration of my summation.


Many thanks.

namloc1980

gozunda wrote: »

I think you may be mixing up initial symptoms and the risk of illness from a covid infection.

While many may experience only a mild infection - its certainly not 'a cold'

In the UK Meanwhile, infections from Delta are reported to be growing by between 2% and 5% each day.

Those at risk from more serious illness includes those who have had just one dose of vaccine as well as those who have none.

Here's some first hand accounts of those who have been infected with the Delta variant and found it was not a "cold"

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-sky-news-correspondent-enda-24438092

https://9now.nine.com.au/today/coronavirus-sydney-adam-marshall-describes-symptoms-after-being-diagnosed-with-delta-strain/9b666799-55a4-4151-8c12-82251b6d105b

We know a small number of people can get quite ill from it but in those examples they didn't die or end up in serious hospital situations.

I mean we cannot prevent every illness or death. Is there any level of risk at all that is acceptable?

Murph85

When the covid fearmongering eventually disappears , they can go back to their staples of news on the endless failures here in housing, health, infrastructure etc.... they might as well milk covid for all its worth...

FlubberJones

Red Silurian wrote: »

Click my username in the top left corner, it's one of the last options on the list

No way I'm going to ignore you, I find clowns great entertainment

Ballynally

DarkJager21 wrote: »

Na I'm not putting anyone on ignore, I have no problem with him (we simply disagree on the media role in all of this scaremongering). Nothing gets solved by putting fingers in your ears.

But it works for ME.
I put someone on the ignore list if i know that any interaction will be fruitless.
Some people are just way below the average line of understanding that its best to ignore.imo of course.
And you seem to think that something can be solved on a forum like this.
Thats a very nice thing to think and i wish i could share it.
Alas, i have no such hope..

ACitizenErased

Great article from Coughlan from Prime Time.

What do NPHET's models really say about a fourth wave?

The first key term is "step change". All the numbers presented are modelled based on the assumption there will be a "step change" in social mixing on 5 July, the date indoor dining was due to reopen.

Specifically: "A step change in close social contact is introduced on 5 July 2021 and maintained constant thereafter."

Based on that, four scenarios were presented. Two key inputs vary in each scenario. Two assume a large "step change", two assume a "moderate step change". So in all scenarios, an increase in social mixing is assumed to happen.

Yet the proposed step change on which the models are based is not due to happen anymore, since the Government has decided against reopening indoor dining on 5 July.

That decision was based on these models.

The aim of that decision is to avoid the step change on which all the scenarios are based. The scenarios therefore should not come to pass.

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0702/1232678-nphet-models-fourth-wave-scenarios/

DarkJager21

Red Silurian wrote: »

At least we can agree ignorance gets you nowhere... Did you manage to find evidence of the below? You knwo the proof that RTE are not following the science? All it takes is one article from the last 2 weeks

My point has nothing to do with the "science" - I'm talking about the role of RTE & others in keeping the wheels of fear in motion. A week or 2 ago, it was all sunshine and lollipops. Then MM delays restrictions and serious questions around the truthfulness of those projections the delay was grounded on start popping up. Like clockwork out come NPHET and the media outlets to lay the doom on thick and fast lest any peasant get ideas they can question the mighty public health advise.

It's so transparent and I simply do not see how you can trust RTE or any other media outlet. Not a single one of them have questioned it, and it doesn't look like any will either.

Edit: Also, just to add that Delta has a 0.3% fatality rate. Alpha (the strain we started with) is up over 2.0%. If that's the science you want to discuss, then tell me why Ireland is the only country ****ting the bed over Delta when it's a dud?

Red Silurian

FileNotFound wrote: »

In fairness people are looking at the UK with 60,000 people events and not overwhelming of hospitals and a decreasing R number.

Demanding links when faced with reality isn't going to help win your argument.

I sit on the side of - if the restrictions are justified - whats the point at which they won't be needed - seems the Gov and NPHET haven't figured that one out somehow.

Is the whole EU and UK ignoring all the science or is our interpretation using the worst possible scenarios? What are the best case on the models (not made available).


When our nation becomes an outlier people are right to question why - if you have the proof that all other nations are wrong throw up all the links there and everyone can learn from you.

You left out the most important figure from the UK... Vaccines

Over 44m of a population of about 65m, almost 70% of their population... Ireland are way behind in that.

Also the UK have a stronger health service and have had many multiples of our cases and deaths per million so not really like-for-like

ElTel

is_that_so wrote: »

They are focusing on what has happened in the UK and projecting it to happen here and their real interest is in case rates.

Is the rate of change in daily cases slowing in the UK? When do they expect to peak?

Hurrache

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Great article from Coughlan from Prime Time.

What do NPHET's models really say about a fourth wave?

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0702/1232678-nphet-models-fourth-wave-scenarios/

Obviously the modelling based on the opening is no longer applicable because the opening is no longer happening.

lawrencesummers

Deleted User wrote: »

Anybody who believes COVID-19 at this stage is equivalent to a cold is being disingenuous. How many hospitalisations does the common cold cause?

There comes a point when the vulnerable cohort and above a certain age cohort are vaccinated that covid will be as virulent in the population as the flu.

What that point is nobody has offered any data on, but it should be the point at which restrictions are eliminated and non pharmaceutical measures such as masks are still in use.

Ballynally

namloc1980 wrote: »

We know a small number of people can get quite ill from it but in those examples they didn't die or end up in serious hospital situations.

I mean we cannot prevent every illness or death. Is there any level of risk at all that is acceptable?

What is imo not acceptable is that there seems to be NO discussion about a cost/benefit analysis. No endgame,no balance.
At which point does what happen?
I remember at least some discussion about this earlier in the pandemic.
The thing is, prospects of possible future hurt drives fear up and logistics down

gozunda

MOH wrote: »

Except that most of the increases have been seen in the younger cohorts that aren't yet vaccinated. Unless you're suggesting that we're vaccinating fast enough to outpace the 60% transmission increase from Delta. In which case, how would it "make no difference" if we started vaccinating even faster?

No I don't think vaccinations are outpacing Delta but they are having a significant impact even now. Why do you think we're seeing increases mainlh in cohorts who aren't vaccinated?

MOH wrote: »

Except the fact is that case number have declined much faster than expected.
7-day average Apr 1: 549 / May 1: 461 / Jun 28 (doom letter day): 324

If you look at the graph linked you will note that case numbers have remained relatively high despite increased levels of vaccination. Why do you think that is? Much the same pattern can be seen going right back to April

https://i.imgflip.com/5f8rn7.jpg

MOH wrote: »

Regardless of when you want to start counting Delta as having first entered the country, between then and June 28th when Tony told us it's at 55%, cases dropped dramatically.

No its not 'regardless". An equivalent time frame is required to look at changes in infections but also how vaccination rates and restrictions may have made a significant impact.

MOH wrote: »

How is it incongruous to point out that despite Delta becoming the dominant variant, it hasn't prevented all major metrics dropping to levels not seen since before Christmas?

When did it Delta become dominant? Current estimates report that delta is likley to become dominant by mid-July.

But more importantly Delta was first detected here in April 2021 and in that time we have also had a rapid increase roll out of the vaccination programme. Restrictions to date are also a factor.

MOH wrote: »

Well, it still has to be one of those unless you have an alternative. My money is on the last one.

Or perhaps you've left out a number of important variables in your calculations? You are of course free to put your money where you wish

MOH wrote: »

We share a border with Northern Ireland. The one area of the UK which has seen no increase in hospitalisations due to Delta. (Also the one area that is neither participating in or hosting an international football tournament).

Afaik NI has a lower proportion of Delta cases than the UK with just over half of all NI cases linked to Delta variant. They also have high proportion of their population vaccinated compared to here.

MOH wrote: »

That article is very interesting, thanks, ...

No problem. I think what that article does highlight is the difficulties tracking evolving viral strains and the time lag required to determine quantitve rates of change relating to those strains. I believe an updated report is due out this week.

PTH2009

Good news about the vaccines but tbh won't matter a feck because NPHET will still be cautious

The government need to think about reopening further no matter what

mcsean2163

Hurrache wrote: »

I'll be more cutting and blunt, they're idiots all over the kip with their ideology, or lack of, as they haven't really a notion as to what's connected to what.

Where are you getting your sizable majority notion from? Everyone is fed up, but not to the point where they all just want to sit in a pub regardless.

But sure their gut feeling....



Parts if NI are now also at their highest rate since January. But sure people will try find a way to bull**** those figures.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-375-000-school-pupils-absent-over-virus-highest-number-since-children-returned-in-march-data-shows-12344800

Schools are being tested twice a week now I believe. There's now tiktoks on how to fake a positive covid19 test to get off school.

With PCR false positives are 0.5%, I'm assuming a lot higher with lateral flow tests.

Hurrache

mcsean2163 wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-375-000-school-pupils-absent-over-virus-highest-number-since-children-returned-in-march-data-shows-12344800

Schools are being tested twice a week. There's now tiktoks on how to fake a positive covid19 test to get off school.

With PCR false positives are 0.5%, I'm assuming a lot higher with lateral flow tests.

There were more tests in March, when there was less vaccinated, and a lock down, and the numbers were lower.
And I'm not convinced by the TikTok fad, I imagine it's blown out of proportion like everything youth related is over the decades.

MOR316

Hurrache wrote: »

I'll be more cutting and blunt, they're idiots all over the kip with their ideology, or lack of, as they haven't really a notion as to what's connected to what.

Where are you getting your sizable majority notion from? Everyone is fed up, but not to the point where they all just want to sit in a pub regardless.

But sure their gut feeling....

Fair enough, go tomorrow and say it to them if you feel that strongly about it.

As for people listening to their gut feeling, I assume you mean in the context of this yes? If you mean not listening to your gut overall, well that's your mistake

is_that_so

ElTel wrote: »

Is the rate of change in daily cases slowing in the UK? When do they expect to peak?

May already be slowing. R0 is now between 1.1 and 1.3 and infection rate down from 3.5% to 2.5%.