Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388297#Comment_118388297

For sure, but when do NPHET provide graphs such as the below.

This graph, provided by the COVID-19 NHS Situation Report, shows the number of COVID-19 hospitalisations in the UK driven by actual COVID-19 infection. In other words, patients who arrive in hospital for other reasons, such as a heart attack, but who are found to be positive for the virus (perhaps because they were asymptomatic) are excluded. This graph only concerns patients admitted to hospital because of COVID-19 viral complications.

As we can see, this is going down (until Dec 21) - as Delta is being superseded by Omicron (Delta viral hospitalisations peaking just before Nov. 16).

In other words, 80% are incidental COVID-19 cases, matching the 75% figure we have seen with South Africa.

This is very encouraging news, and it's the kind of objective, scientific evidence that should inform whether extreme restrictions are required (clearly, restrictions at this stage are an over-reaction).

Yet NPHET are unwilling to even address factors such as the above, let alone provide similar graphs for the situation in Ireland as present.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388359#Comment_118388359

Hey, that is the same as the one printed in the right wing, tory, brexiteer rag. 🤣🤣

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388359#Comment_118388359

Looks to me 81% incidental cases. Denmark showing similar findings also, but hey lets all lockdown and ignore the real world data eh ?

Quite funny really, "we are waiting on the data" from Uk and Denmark and then when the data comes along just ignore it.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388359#Comment_118388359

Is that 80% in hospital or 80% admissions. You mention admissions but the chart is titled proportion of increase in inpatients. The title kinda reads that it's the proportion of the increase in daily hospital figures.

In the UK as of 22nd Dec:

A) 1213 admissions

B) 8246 in hospital

C) 8033 in hospital the previous day, so a daily increase of 213.

So my question is whats the 80/20% worked out of?

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388508#Comment_118388508

Have a guess Wolfey, i bet you get it right.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388535#Comment_118388535

I'm honestly asking as it's been commented on here it's on the admission figures and then the chart looks to be just the difference in daily hospital figures.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388508#Comment_118388508

Of all hospitalisations throughout the UK, as of 24 December:

• 366 Omicron patients
• Total Omicron deaths to date: 29

Now, on 27 December, it's:

• 407 Omicron patients
• Total Omicron deaths to date: 39

On 29 December, it's 766 Omicron patients in hospital, out of a total of 8,200 patients in UK hospitals (9.3%).

Total Omicron deaths to date: 53

Divide the above figures by 13 to discover what Ireland-like figures might appear as.

Furthermore, the 53 patients who died are presumed to have had significant co-morbidities.

(note: the above figures are related to COVID-19 admissions / complications arising from Omicron disease - and not incidental findings).

Conclusion: the UK is not seeing a dramatic increase in Omicron hospitalisations due to viral disease.

I understand that this isn't the news that some would like to see, because they cling to the belief that Omicron would somehow invite the worst phase of the pandemic, but the facts are the facts - and these are the facts. Not only in the UK, but also replicated throughout South Africa and elsewhere.

In England (not the UK as a whole), only 20pc of so-called COVID-19 patient admissions is caused by viral complications.

The other 80pc are incidental findings, of patients who are presenting to the hospital with other conditions that have nothing to do with the virus.

So yes, we do often see graphs of hospitalisations increasing - as happens every time at this stage of the year. But it's simply disingenuous to associate that inevitable and unavoidable increase with Omicron COVID-19 admissions.

It's false, false, false!

Sobit1964

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388586#Comment_118388586

Post of the year.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388586#Comment_118388586

Assuming they are swabbing all admitted patients with SGTF and not just using random samples.

But anyway, how many total admissions have they had from 24-29th, would I be right in saying that the difference between the 24th and 29th is 400 new omicron admissions out of X admitted? The UK dashboard only has data up to 21st Dec.

It certainly explains why ICU figures are extremely stable in London.

bucketybuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388236#Comment_118388236

Which is about to be a huge problem, because I am pretty sure this is about to be a rabbit in the headlights moment.

Omicron is clearly hugely transmissible, by all reports it is spreading like wildfire among vaccinated people who are adhering to restrictions.

So that means we cannot play both sides of this, there is no longer a balance between lockdown and "let it rip". Now it's one or the other.

Try and fudge this with half hearted isolation dictates and you will do more harm than good. You will have the health service decimated by healthy people isolating while at the same time it is getting hammered by an increase in hospitalisations. That is the worst of both worlds.

Lock it down or let it rip, we have to choose. Thats why I say "Rabbit in the headlamps". Jump left, jump right, pick one but you have to jump or else get hit by the car.

Which is the problem, because M Martin clearly hasn't the balls to make the choice in time.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388656#Comment_118388656

Lock it down or let it rip.

Why are you jumping to these extreme poles?

South Africa, who made pregnant the variant, neither locked down nor "let it rip".

It's about being sensible, taking precautions whilst data is being collected - and then acting accordingly.

NPHET, incidentally, did the opposite - assumed they had the data, and acted in the most aggressive manner possible, counter to the best available evidence, even up to tonight.

In fact, it's even worse than that.

Now that the very impressive and encouraging data about Omicron has come to light, Holohan is doubling down on his "advice" about restrictions, perhaps with retail in his crosshairs, before the next recommendation on restrictions (and faux-modelling) to Government.

Zebra3

Simple. End the need to isolate for something that’s little more than a mild cold for most people.

Time for people to grow up.

bucketybuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388680#Comment_118388680

Because they are the logical end point of a severely transmissible virus.

The alternative is to implement a bunch of measures that don't do dick squat to prevent transmission in any meaningful fashion. You restrict the populace and it spreads anyway, so you get the worst of both worlds.

I don't think full lockdown will actually work by the way, but at least it is a logical approach as opposed to a mish mash of "restictions" that won't work.

Continue as we are and we get a pandemic of healthy people isolating while the remainder try and deal with a surge in hospitalisations. Who does that help?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388711#Comment_118388711

At this stage of the pandemic, people should be prudent and cautious yet optimistic.

I think Government announcing a "let it rip" strategy would send the wrong signal. My concern is that South Africa wouldn't have been exposed to a Holohan-esque lockdown before - meaning that natural immunity is likely higher through increased socialisation and so forth; and so it's more likely that our population, with the greatest of restrictions in the past, is less exposed to the virus compared to SA. South Africa also has a much higher, younger population than we do. These are the only reasons I can think of to be cautious, though.

For sure, all the evidence is that Omicron is a favourable development but Government should still advocate responsibility.

Not Holohan-level restrictions, but just age-old responsibility.

That said, once this peak passes - as it surely will, and probably sooner than people think (SA has already reached said peak) - all restrictions should be removed instantly, and not over time, and the bureaucratic organism that is NPHET, should be disbanded.

CruelSummer

If I was in retail right now, I would be reeally mad at Tony Holohan suggesting people don’t go to their businesses.

Zebra3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388711#Comment_118388711

Got off the bus at 8.55 this evening and one of the local pubs (I live in a town of about 20,000) was emptying out. No discretion involved. Walked further down the road and a lot of noise coming from the next pub tho I couldn’t actually see anyone, it sounded quite boisterous.

That says a lot about what stage we are at. Not so long ago, people would’ve been on the phone to the guards, and people would be getting chucked out within minutes.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118387590#Comment_118387590

I fully expect this variant to cause absolute havoc in other countries where vaccination rates are a fraction of ours, here we might have 800 in hospital and I hope that I'm wrong and it's much lower

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388786#Comment_118388786

We need more anecdotes like this.

Richard Hillman

No lockdown can stop this type of mass spread. The people presenting now are likely to have picked it up in the days leading up to Christmas. The Christmas/Stephens Day spread are a day or two away.

Nobody can get a test. You have 16k cases a day, an average of 3 close contacts (close contacts will be even higher being Christmas). You have people who have failed anti-gen tests and their close contacts. Even anti-gen tests are hard to come by.

We are knocking about 100k people out of the economic system every day. We will cease functioning in about a week.

As I said a few pages back, businesses are shutting because they have no staff. My local bookies is closed, local Chinese is closed, these are grand. It's only a matter of time before prison Services, petrol stations, public transport, Garda, health service won't be able to fulfill staff levels.

I would say we are about 1 week away from full on meltdown unless close contact rules are completely dropped.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388835#Comment_118388835

And though what you've said sounds bad, it's actually good - it means that herd immunity is evolving, and fast.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388835#Comment_118388835

But 3 days after that week, 100k people can get back into the economic system.

I do agree the close contact rules/isolation rules need to be looked at.

It makes sense, but you never know, it's a way of locking out vast numbers from the workplace/retail/hospitality etc... so it's a mini lockdown as such to keep the spread down (not like that's possible with Omicron)

ceadaoin.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388824#Comment_118388824

Like South africa?

CalamariFritti

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118387560#Comment_118387560

https://www.worldometers.info and its summer down there now.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118389157#Comment_118389157

Summer in Australia also and their Omicron wave surpasses their Delta wave. I know restrictions play a part reducing the Delta wave, but summer in Australia with high vaccination (less natural infection though) but still a steep rise, like most of European countries who have an Omicron wave.

SA peaked in about 3 weeks, we're 2 weeks in. London, its hard to judge, but they look to have peaked (unless it's down to lack of testing) after about 3 weeks.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388359#Comment_118388359

Guardian says otherwise.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/29/how-can-we-measure-the-true-scale-of-uk-covid-hospital-admissions

70% primarily covid19. Was actually looking for a source to post your chart to Tony. I'm assuming you got it from a Dr John Campbell video?

Edit:

Wasn't easy but found the with/ from data here for England:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

I have no idea where the 80% chart came from but it does not appear to be the NHS as claimed. Pity because I really wanted it to be true.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118389075#Comment_118389075

It's not causing as much damage in South Africa because a lot of the population there were infected with previous variants

Wait till it hits certain states across the Atlantic...

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388705#Comment_118388705

Ironic that you suggest people grow up when the most grown up amongst us are the ones most at risk... Sorry, bad one, but I had to...

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388777#Comment_118388777

I'd be realty happy if what he said was the extent of what happens, nothing worse than working in a clothes shop and having to wade through people to put clothes on a rack

In saying that Tony's suggestions have a habit of becoming law so I don't think it will be the extent of it

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118389316#Comment_118389316

And yet South Africa is still there and emerging from this **** show quicker than us??

So basically we fucked up with lockdowns, restrictions, 50 billion in supports etc.

What a waste of time.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118389304#Comment_118389304

Did people misread the charts? Guardian figures are literally the opposite of what people were posting here today.

It's not out by a little margin, it's literally the opposite. Then again the Guardian figures are those currently in hospital, figures quted here today were just admissions.... with it being specific to Omicron. So quite selective.