Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

ACitizenErased

Hurrache wrote: »

Obviously the modelling based on the opening is no longer applicable because the opening is no longer happening.

Yeah that's the point. They never provided modelling for what will happen now. So we're in a period where nobody actually has a clue what's going to happen.

timmyntc

Hurrache wrote: »

Parts if NI are now also at their highest rate since January. But sure people will try find a way to bull**** those figures.

So f*cking what?

Cases dont matter - hospitalisations matter.
21 people are in hospital in NI. 2 in ICU. Thats what matters.
January peak was over 1000. We are currently at 2% of that.

MOH

Red Silurian wrote: »

What reports specifically don't follow the science? Can you link me to one example of this in the last 2 weeks?

I feel like I just did this, but:
https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1230774/

The most recent whole-genome sequencing data is three weeks old. Just 5% of cases were the Delta variant.
...
...
When the whole-genome sequencing is completed for last week, it’s possible more than 100 Delta cases will be associated with it.
That’s a significant increase: As of last Thursday, there had been 188 cases of Delta in total confirmed in Ireland.

a) make a statement about something possible.
b) immediately assume that as a fact, then use it to imply Delta cases increased by 50% in a week.
c) deliberately exaggerate the timeline. If the most recent sequencing data is 3 weeks old, then that's when the last confirmed Delta figures are from. So there were 188 cases confirmed as of 3 weeks ago.
So while it's technically also correct to say "last Thursday", it's deliberately misleading to exaggerate the supposed increase.

"Delta cases have increased by 32 in the last 3 weeks" doesn't sound nearly as scary, but does have the benefit of not being deliberately exaggerated to conclude the article on an ominous note.

Stheno

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Yeah that's the point. They never provided modelling for what will happen now. So we're in a period where nobody actually has a clue what's going to happen.

Apparently they modelled this week for no increase in social mixing. Should give some insight into the impact of it not changing before July 19th anyway

At the NPHET briefing on Thursday, Prime Time asked Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, if he'd run the models without the step change in social mixing included, and what the outcome would be.

"I did, and the answer is: it’s modest," he said. "Frankly, it is anywhere between Alpha-only and the optimistic scenario."

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0702/1232678-nphet-models-fourth-wave-scenarios/

MOR316

timmyntc wrote: »

So f*cking what?

Cases dont matter - hospitalisations matter.
21 people are in hospital in NI. 2 in ICU. Thats what matters.
January peak was over 1000. We are currently at 2% of that.

Yes, this is what I don't understand...

With every other disease going, we're only concerned about those who end up in Hospital and those who sadly pass away...

Yet, we're obsessed with case numbers with this disease, even people who don't even feel anything or know they have it, why? Especially with vaccinations working against it, I'm not understanding the fascination with the case numbers...

MOR316

Stheno wrote: »

Apparently they modelled this week for no increase in social mixing. Should give some insight into the impact of it not changing before July 19th anyway



https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0702/1232678-nphet-models-fourth-wave-scenarios/

OK, Dr Phil...Show us then!

Public health means the public should be shown this information

corkonion

RTE news : Govt to buy one million vaccine doses from Romania

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0702/1232726-vaccine-romania-purchase/

Game changer

MOR316

corkonion wrote: »

RTE news : Govt to buy one million vaccine doses from Romania

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0702/1232726-vaccine-romania-purchase/

Game changer

"But we're not there yet"

Allinall

MOR316 wrote: »

Yes, this is what I don't understand...

With every other disease going, we're only concerned about those who end up in Hospital and those who sadly pass away...

Yet, we're obsessed with case numbers with this disease, even people who don't even feel anything or know they have it, why? Especially with vaccinations working against it, I'm not understanding the fascination with the case numbers...

It's the transmissibility of Covid that is the issue.

Where have you been for the last 16 months?

Graham

corkonion wrote: »

Game changer

Absolutely.

Did not see that one coming :eek:

MOR316

Allinall wrote: »

It's the transmissibility of Covid that is the issue.

Where have you been for the last 16 months?

In Limbo.

Allinall

MOR316 wrote: »

In Limbo.

What are the numbers, hospitalizations etc. like there?

MOR316

Allinall wrote: »

What are the numbers, hospitalizations etc. like there?

Not bad, they have a proper health system in place there

Hurrache

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Yeah that's the point. They never provided modelling for what will happen now. So we're in a period where nobody actually has a clue what's going to happen.

Ah, I get you.

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1410979205970595842

Nphet will be saying the same once all adults have access to the vaccine.

KrustyUCC

Stheno wrote: »

Apparently they modelled this week for no increase in social mixing. Should give some insight into the impact of it not changing before July 19th anyway



https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/0702/1232678-nphet-models-fourth-wave-scenarios/

Interesting article overall

"He said he will be running more modelling early next week. That new work will consider the now-likely level of social mixing, any new data on the Delta variant, and incorporate the acceleration of the vaccine roll-out."

At least now he'll have to factor in the NIAC change and the 1million extra vaccine from Romania

Sobit1964

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1410979205970595842

Nphet will be saying the same once all adults have access to the vaccine.

What a demented tweet - stop going after the children.

walus

seamus wrote: »

The end goal here is herd immunity, or as close as we can get to it.

Once we've topped out the number of people who can and will take the vaccine, there won't be any choice except to move on with our lives.

This will obviously come with some requirement to have controls on inbound travel (since vaccination everywhere will not be evenly spread), and may also include some ongoing level of control in high-risk environments such as nursing homes and hospitals.

When do you think we are going to get there?

gozunda

namloc1980 wrote: »

We know a small number of people can get quite ill from it but in those examples they didn't die or end up in serious hospital situations.

I mean we cannot prevent every illness or death. Is there any level of risk at all that is acceptable?

Didn't say they did btw. What they do show is that Delta is not simlly a cold with some sniffles as was being suggested . It has the potential to cause everything from mild to serious illness in otherwise healthy individuals.

And of course no one is suggesting preventing every illness or death.

But full vaccination puts hell of dint in the known risk from Covid. And afaik that's what we're going for.

Beechwoodspark

That absolute clown Micheal o Leary on NT warbling on and on

He is completely disregarding to the silent majority.

Public health comes first, not Ryanair profits.

Absolutely despicable from him and his cronies since the pandemic. So many ppl have told me they’ll never fly with Ryanair ever again.

normanoffside

30 families are bringing wrongful death suits against nursing homes.
They are also asking for a public inquiry into the handling of Covid 19 in nursing homes.

This could get interesting for some.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nearly-30-families-bringing-wrongful-death-suits-against-nursing-homes-over-covid-19-40604467.html

_Kaiser_

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That absolute clown Micheal o Leary on NT warbling on and on

He is completely disregarding to the silent majority.

Public health comes first, not Ryanair profits.

Absolutely despicable from him and his cronies since the pandemic. So many ppl have told me they’ll never fly with Ryanair ever again.

What is he wrong about exactly? Seems to be making a lot of sense really.

the kelt

corkonion wrote: »

RTE news : Govt to buy one million vaccine doses from Romania

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0702/1232726-vaccine-romania-purchase/

Game changer

Personally speaking up until Monday i would have seen news like that and thought the same, brilliant, bring it on, fantastic news.

Honestly and maybe its just me im looking at it saying "so what?" NPHET still obsessing over cases, hospitals not able to cope COVID or no COVID etc etc.

For me im just looking and thinking it wont make a difference, there will always be something.

Maybe its just me, arm aching since my 2nd jab on tuesday and havent been feeling well since and just keep thinking, "whats the point?"

lawred2

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That absolute clown Micheal o Leary on NT warbling on and on

He is completely disregarding to the silent majority.

Public health comes first, not Ryanair profits.

Absolutely despicable from him and his cronies since the pandemic. So many ppl have told me they’ll never fly with Ryanair ever again.

Silent majority?

Beechwoodspark

Great news about the Romania buy

Hopefully we can get the roll out ramped up

timmyntc

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That absolute clown Micheal o Leary on NT warbling on and on

He is completely disregarding to the silent majority.

Public health comes first, not Ryanair profits.

Absolutely despicable from him and his cronies since the pandemic. So many ppl have told me they’ll never fly with Ryanair ever again.

Lol. The silent majority have long since flipped. You're in the minority now bud

Beechwoodspark

timmyntc wrote: »

Lol. The silent majority have long since flipped. You're in the minority now bud

Not at all. Stop fooling yourself

Michael O'Leary on Newstalk now, asking an interesting question about the NPHET modelling.

Why, he asks, if the UK is weeks ahead of us (he says 6 weeks, but lets say it's more like a month), are they seeing only tiny rises in hospitalisation? They have indoor dining, no restrictions except for social distancing.

Hmm. Kinda seems like there shouldn't be any delay for the vaccinated, and we're still talking about an extended closure.

MOH

gozunda wrote: »

If you look at the graph linked you will note that case numbers have remained relatively high despite increased levels of vaccination. Why do you think that is? Much the same pattern can be seen going right back to April

No its not 'regardless". An equivalent time frame is required to look at changes in infections but also how vaccination rates and restrictions may have made a significant impact.

When did it Delta become dominant? Current estimates report that delta is likley to become dominant by mid-July.

But more importantly Delta was first detected here in April 2021 and in that time we have also had a rapid increase roll out of the vaccination programme. Restrictions to date are also a factor.

Why do you think cases have remained "relatively high" since last April when in reality they dropped by 45% from April 1st to Jun 28th?

Or by "the same pattern" do you mean "going up and down day by day"? They do that you know, that's why we use averages when we're looking at trends. Unless of course we're deliberately trying to obfuscate facts.
A bit like posting images of graphs of unsourced data. Just use Worldometer, at least they link to the HSE page they source the data from.

This was after Glynn and Varadkar stated at the end of March that we'd be lucky to keep cases below 500-600 per day because of the UK variant. Presumably he was aware we were vaccinating people, and of existing restrictions, and factored that in. He obviously didn't factor in the 60% more transmissible Delta since it wasn't here yet.
And yet despite Delta comprising more than half the cases by June 28th, and restrictions being eased in the meantime, case numbers dropped significantly, as did hospitalisations and deaths.

Also you might want to let NPHET know Delta isn't dominant yet. They're going around telling everyone it's now 70% of cases.

No problem. I think what that article does highlight is the difficulties tracking evolving viral strains and the time lag required to determine quantitve rates of change relating to those strains. I believe an updated report is due out this week.

Agree with that. It also does highlight how RTE are quite willing to deliberately
manipulate data to scare people.

timmyntc

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Not at all. Stop fooling yourself

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-public-split-on-pace-of-lifting-covid-19-restrictions-1.4596630



And this was only June.
Expect after the July fiasco, and seeing most of EU back to normal that opinions will shift even further in favour of reopening sooner.

So much for your silent majority :pac: