Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

gozunda

MOH wrote: »

I feel like I just did this, but:
https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1230774/

a) make a statement about something possible.
b) immediately assume that as a fact, then use it to imply Delta cases increased by 50% in a week.
c) deliberately exaggerate the timeline. If the most recent sequencing data is 3 weeks old, then that's when the last confirmed Delta figures are from. So there were 188 cases confirmed as of 3 weeks ago.
So while it's technically also correct to say "last Thursday", it's deliberately misleading to exaggerate the supposed increase.

"Delta cases have increased by 32 in the last 3 weeks" doesn't sound nearly as scary, but does have the benefit of not being deliberately exaggerated to conclude the article on an ominous note.

The first thing that's a media report is not a scientific report - secondly whilst it useful information on the evolving situation with regard to the work being carried out - the report itself is over a week old - so you need to allow for that. Afaik there's a update on sequencing due this week.

Btw it doesn't mention that cases doubled / otlr increased by "50%". I think that's your own reading. I certainly take that from what was written

Beechwoodspark

timmyntc wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-public-split-on-pace-of-lifting-covid-19-restrictions-1.4596630



And this was only June.
Expect after the July fiasco, and seeing most of EU back to normal that opinions will shift even further in favour of reopening sooner.

So much for your silent majority :pac:

Let’s see how many show up to the lockdown “protests”....

KrustyUCC

the kelt wrote: »

Personally speaking up until Monday i would have seen news like that and thought the same, brilliant, bring it on, fantastic news.

Honestly and maybe its just me im looking at it saying "so what?" NPHET still obsessing over cases, hospitals not able to cope COVID or no COVID etc etc.

For me im just looking and thinking it wont make a difference, there will always be something.

Maybe its just me, arm aching since my 2nd jab on tuesday and havent been feeling well since and just keep thinking, "whats the point?"

yes I know what you mean

any easing of restrictions is going to be contingent on the vaccination program more than ever after Tuesday

The quicker we can get people fully vaccinated the better

It should help in terms of cases, hospital numbers and ICU

The Romania vaccines will mean 500,000 people being vaccinated sooner if the government actually get the vaccines into the country

timmyntc

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Let’s see how many show up to the lockdown “protests”....

MOR316

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That absolute clown Micheal o Leary on NT warbling on and on

He is completely disregarding to the silent majority.

Public health comes first, not Ryanair profits.

Absolutely despicable from him and his cronies since the pandemic. So many ppl have told me they’ll never fly with Ryanair ever again.

Silent? Oh yes...Classic Ireland
Majority? Hmmm wrong on that one I'm afraid

Ballynally

Shocking news from Northern Ireland:
Positive cases up by 63% since last week.
Admissions to hospital up by 90%.
Makes a nice headline.

But...

Look at the numbers:

Cummulative positive cases:
30 april..12.229- 30 june..13.772= 1.541 over 2 months

Cummulative hospital admissions:
30 april..9.383- 30 june..9.500 = 117 over 2 months

Inpatients in hospital:
30 april..75- 30 june..21

Deaths: 30 april- 30 june:.... 0 (zero)

So, of the positive cases 7.5% went to hospital (over 2 months)
However, inpatients DECREASED fr 75 to 21 over the same period.
And deaths: 0

I just love statistics.

People (and media) can draw their conclusions out of that data.
I dont need to.
The people in NI, including politicians are not overly worried about these numbers.
Live music starting on july 5.

Meanwhile on the other side of the fence...

is_that_so

MOR316 wrote: »

Yes, this is what I don't understand...

With every other disease going, we're only concerned about those who end up in Hospital and those who sadly pass away...

Yet, we're obsessed with case numbers with this disease, even people who don't even feel anything or know they have it, why? Especially with vaccinations working against it, I'm not understanding the fascination with the case numbers...

Causality, x numbers can lead to y% in hospital and z% dead. That worked fine as a model for a long time but now a combination of vaccination levels and those at risk, predominantly in younger groups, is making us question that. Even so the likes of the 5 day and 7 day rates may still indicate something, which is why they are so fixated on them.

Deeper Blue

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That absolute clown Micheal o Leary on NT warbling on and on

He is completely disregarding to the silent majority.

Public health comes first, not Ryanair profits.

Absolutely despicable from him and his cronies since the pandemic. So many ppl have told me they’ll never fly with Ryanair ever again.

Silent majority my hole. The government have lost the vast majority of ordinary people with their disgraceful carry on this week.

walus

There is always a benefit to be slightly behind so that one can learn from the experience of others. That is of course if one has an open mind and wants to learn from the experience of others.

They already know they have made a mistake in UK: https://youtu.be/QBcLVDAjadI (interview with a member of UK modelling group).
Vaccine efficacy and people’s behaviour has been better than the models assumed to be the case.

And here we are. Why would we learn from their outcome? Just made the same mistake. Backwater Ireland. Same old, same old.

DarkJager21

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That absolute clown Micheal o Leary on NT warbling on and on

He is completely disregarding to the silent majority.

Public health comes first, not Ryanair profits.

Absolutely despicable from him and his cronies since the pandemic. So many ppl have told me they’ll never fly with Ryanair ever again.

You are not a majority no matter how many times you say it

Beechwoodspark

Mcinerney wiping the floor with Leary

Calling out blatant lies and pathetic attempts at deception

KanyeSouthEast

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Mcinerney wiping the floor with Leary

Calling out blatant lies and pathetic attempts at deception

It’s O Leary and you’ve made your feelings on Ryanair clear long before the pandemic. Please God we’ll all be able to travel after the 19th. Those that don’t want to can stay at home and stay safe.

_Kaiser_

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Mcinerney wiping the floor with Leary

Calling out blatant lies and pathetic attempts at deception

I think it's Michael who's calling out Sarah/RTE in fairness.

walus

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Michael O'Leary on Newstalk now, asking an interesting question about the NPHET modelling.

Why, he asks, if the UK is weeks ahead of us (he says 6 weeks, but lets say it's more like a month), are they seeing only tiny rises in hospitalisation? They have indoor dining, no restrictions except for social distancing.

Hmm. Kinda seems like there shouldn't be any delay for the vaccinated, and we're still talking about an extended closure.

Because vaccine efficacy and people’s behaviour is actually better than the estimated and used in modelling. The link between cases and hospitalisation is broken.

the kelt

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Let’s see how many show up to the lockdown “protests”....

There will be eff all turn up for any type of protest in this country.

Through my job today i was speaking to one of my local TD's and a TD in a neighboring county.

Ask them what the silent majority is thinking now?

Genuinely both of them said they've never seen anything like the level of response and correspondence from people on it and to be fair to both of them theyre as frustrated themselves.

Gauging public opinion from protest marches in Ireland is a waste of time cos even when theres a bloody branch down on a road the local TD gets a call.

MOR316

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Mcinerney wiping the floor with Leary

Calling out blatant lies and pathetic attempts at deception

It may have escaped some of you from listening and watching the likes of Miriam O'Callaghan, Claire Byrne, Pat Kenny, Zara King etc to name a few but...

And believe it or not, this is how it's supposed to happen...

It's a journalist's job to challenge who they're interviewing!!! It's not the job of a journalist to tickle the belly of the interviewee!!!

It's like if U2 bring out a new album and they say it's their best ever, they're supposed to be challenged on the topic!! Just like Philip Nolan and Dr. TH were supposed to be challenged on their models and assumptions but, for some strange reason, they weren't! :rolleyes:

Red Silurian

corkonion wrote: »

RTE news : Govt to buy one million vaccine doses from Romania

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0702/1232726-vaccine-romania-purchase/

Game changer

Careful now, some people on here think rte is a religion and they don't believe in it

Micky 32

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So many ppl have told me they’ll never fly with Ryanair ever again.

You actually believe them? When this settles Ryanair will become very profitable again.

MOR316

Red Silurian wrote: »

Careful now, some people on here think rte is a religion and they don't believe in it

No?!

They just think RTE are a shower of **** and rightly so!

You don't need a pandemic to come to that correct conclusion

JPCN1

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Mcinerney wiping the floor with Leary

Calling out blatant lies and pathetic attempts at deception

McInerney couldn't wipe the floor with a mop.

CruelSummer

MOR316 wrote: »

It may have escaped some of you from listening and watching the likes of Miriam O'Callaghan, Claire Byrne, Pat Kenny, Zara King etc to name a few but...

And believe it or not, this is how it's supposed to happen...

It's a journalist's job to challenge who they're interviewing!!! It's not the job of a journalist to tickle the belly of the interviewee!!!

It's like if U2 bring out a new album and they say it's their best ever, they're supposed to be challenged on the topic!! Just like Philip Nolan and Dr. TH were supposed to be challenged on their models and assumptions but, for some strange reason, they weren't! :rolleyes:

This is very true - perhaps the mainstream media could start giving NPHET, Dr Holohan and especially members of ISAG some actual scrutiny when interviewing. I have to imagine BAI are bought up by this stage - such is the farce of so called 'impartial' presenting / news reports. More like extremely biased to hysterical.

Whatsisname

Sobit1964 wrote: »

What a demented tweet - stop going after the children.

These people are ridiculous. It’s not a new virus ffs.

I saw a series of tweets from a member of the JCVI here in England the other day who expressed his concern at the idea of vaccinating kids and said to do so, you’d have to be absolutely certain the benefit outweighs the risk as covid is largely unthreatening to teenagers and kids. Currently it seems the UK won’t be recommending any vaccine for kids under 18.

Some people won’t be happy until every breathing organism on the planet is vaccinated.

gozunda

MOH wrote: »

Why do you think cases have remained "relatively high" since last April when in reality they dropped by 45% from April 1st to Jun 28th?
Or by "the same pattern" do you mean "going up and down day by day"? They do that you know, that's why we use averages when we're looking at trends. Unless of course we're deliberately trying to facts.

You ignored the question why do you think infection rates in those not vaccinated remains high?

As to your question and to the graph showing case numbers "going up and down by day"

Thats the point of that graph. The figures are not going down - rather they remain relatively high. They are indeed "going up and down" and have been doing do for some time. And to that Ireland has the 4th or 5th highest 14-day case notification rate per 100 000 inhabitants in the EU and have had for some time. The daily graph simply illustrates whats going on in the background. So no facts
obfuscated ...

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

MOH wrote: »

A bit like posting images of graphs of unsourced data. Just use Worldometer, at least they link to the HSE page they source the data from.

The graph if you wish to check is on the wiki Ireland Statistics page and are derived from hse daily reported cases. I posted a snapshot btw.

MOH wrote: »

This was after Glynn and Varadkar stated at the end of March that we'd be lucky to keep cases below 500-600 per day because of the UK variant. Presumably he was aware we were vaccinating people, and of existing restrictions, and factored that in. He obviously didn't factor in the 60% more transmissible Delta since it wasn't here yet. And yet despite Delta comprising more than half the cases by June 28th, and restrictions being eased in the meantime, case numbers dropped significantly, as did hospitalisations and deaths.

Also you might want to let NPHET know Delta isn't dominant yet. They're going around telling everyone it's now 70% of cases.

And if you wish to go on a general rant about Nphet and what some politicians said out of context at some point in March then please feel free.

As to "dominant' that would mean a proportion of cases prevailing over all others as in the UK. We still have a large proportion of Alhpa cases here.

This is what Degascun has publicly stated with regard to Delta not yet being dominant. If you also wish to split hair over his use of the term dominant don't let me stop you.

https://twitter.com/CillianDeGascun/status/1410009380548923397?s=20

As to this

Agree with that. It also does highlight how RTE are quite willing to deliberately
manipulate data to scare people.

Tbh I didnt find anything in that which was "manipulating data". Bear in mind its also a media report not a scientific one at the end of the day.

Why is that you seem to believe everyone is trying to manipulate / obfuscate / lie? Is it some big conspiracy or ?

Beechwoodspark

I’d commend dr Henry’s interview on RTÉ radio just now to anyone in doubt that the approach being taken is not the correct one

Backstreet Moyes

Hurrache wrote: »

Obviously the modelling based on the opening is no longer applicable because the opening is no longer happening.

Do you think because pubs are not opening that people are going to say ah sure we will stay at home.

People who have nowhere to go are just going to socialize in people's houses like the past few months.

Outdoor venues are going to be packed because of lack of places to go.

The only thing this is going to achieve is people drinking crammed into an outdoor pub or on top of each other in houses.

The models should be adjusted again because keeping hospitality closed is going to drive up cases more than if it was open.

It's not rocket science why we have hospitality closed and are one of the worst in Europe.

namloc1980

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Yeah that's the point. They never provided modelling for what will happen now. So we're in a period where nobody actually has a clue what's going to happen.

Correct. Their models are woefully inadequate. If they could model what would happen if we opened, they should have equally modelled what would happen if we stayed as is so that an even more informed decision could be made. Mind boggling.

Ballynally

Murph85 wrote: »

When the covid fearmongering eventually disappears , they can go back to their staples of news on the endless failures here in housing, health, infrastructure etc.... they might as well milk covid for all its worth...

It is as if you have been looking in the dark corner of my brain..

DarkJager21

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I’d commend dr Henry’s interview on RTÉ radio just now to anyone in doubt that the approach being taken is not the correct one

Everyone else is wrong and we are right - gotcha.

KanyeSouthEast

Either this place is full of trolls or comical Ali is posting!

MOH

gozunda wrote: »

The first thing that's a media report is not a scientific report - secondly whilst it useful information on the evolving situation with regard to the work being carried out - the report itself is over a week old - so you need to allow for that. Afaik there's a update on sequencing due this week.

Btw it doesn't mention that cases doubled / otlr increased by "50%". I think that's your own reading. I certainly take that from what was written

So you genuinely don't believe that "it’s possible more than 100 Delta cases will be associated with it. That’s a significant increase: As of last Thursday, there had been 188 cases" is deliberately trying to convey the impression of cases rising by 100 in just a week, when the total date last week was 188? An increase of 53%? I'm baffled as to what other conclusion you could get from that.

I'm not sure you can really call it a media report since it's from RTE, but close enough. But the rest of your post is pointless anyway. A poster asked for an example less than two weeks old of RTE not following science, I gave them an example of RTE deliberately mangling figure to instil fear.

I fail to see how a scientific report or some other report that doesn't exist yet would have been relevant.