US and Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan...- threadbanned users in OP

Hande hoche!

One suggestion was about six months for the capital to be threatened. Previously it was imagined that it would be a few years based on the post Soviet withdrawal era. An indicator would be towns or cities falling.

Yurt2

Curiously enough, probably the West's foremost expert on Afghanistan is a Paddy. A chap from Wicklow called Michael Semple. Has lived between there and Pakistan for decades and speaks a number of the local languages.

Very interesting character and well worth a Google. Was in the employ of the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs (well his salary was being paid by them) when Micheál Martin was Foreign Minister and he was Deputy Ambassador at the EU embassy in Kabul. A real Lawrence of Arabia type.

He was kicked out of Afghanistan by the government apparently at the behest of the US as they held that he was in fact an MI6 officer conducting back channel negotiations with the Taliban against American policy.

Hande hoche!

Sure it's quite telling that you have the UK defence minister saying that they would work with the Taliban if they take power. Meanwhile the group seems to be pushing on Kandahar from three directions.

Elmer Blooker

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117609736#Comment_117609736

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-16/taliban-militants-afghanistan-civilian-torture/100300730

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/01/afghan-civilians-forced-to-fight-taliban-as-foreign-troops-depart

https://time.com/6075566/hazara-shia-afghanistan/

What a mess

Yurt2

Shared a meal with some young US officers who had done tours of Afghanistan. All of them were bamboozled as to what the endgame of the conflict would be. These guys weren't meatheads, all educated in West Point with good heads on their shoulders.

Afghanistan will be a trouble spot for years to come. Despite what their state media is saying, it's going to become a thorn in the side of China now, with a significant amount of pissed-off Uyghurs and Tajiks holed up in the northern part of the country. China was actually quite comfortable with the US picking up the security tab for the country for this reason.

Gatling

They may have left but yet the US carried out airstrikes against Taliban position and also attacking and destroying equipment captured by the Taliban

jmreire

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117652661#Comment_117652661

Yes they have even now removed most of their physical military presence , but they did say that they would continue to defend their interests /allies there.....so I guess that will mean long distance strikes. The "warcry" and propaganda of the taliban about removing foreign invaders and restoring Islam to Afghanistan rings hollow when the talibs are just invaders themselves, (ex Pakistani Madrassa's,) and why bring Islam to an already Islamic Country? Poor Afghani's.

smurfjed

There is only so much support that they can provide with B52’s. Remembering that the Taliban actually reduced the production of poppies, I can see the northern tribal leaders going against them as they won’t want to be stopped again. As for the main cities, with a population of 30 million people, surely it’s up to them to fight for their future.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117656505#Comment_117656505

After the Russians ( and the Americans) left, all of the tribes and clans who had fought together to oust the Russians, turned on each other to the extent that had the Taliban not intervened, what was left of the Afghan cities after the Russian / Afghan war, would have been destroyed completely. They were welcomed initially, as they restored the peace, and brought stability and security to the part of the Country they controlled. And now these self same tribes and clans will wheel and deal to make the best of the present situation for them selves. So the Taliban didn't have to fight for all the land they are now claiming. Meetings were held, discussions took place,and agreements were made.Had all the cash and material that the US pumped into Afghanistan made its way to where it was actually intended for, then you can be sure that the Taliban would not be getting so many easy walk overs....but for many Afghans, especially in the rural areas, a deal with the Taliban might make better sense to them,and of course you have the religious obligation to remove the infidel invaders. So maybe you will have the Norther Alliance organizing a region in the North, but in the major cities? Kabul? Mazar-i Sharif? Herat? The resistance in the cities will come from powerfull individuals, who literally stand to lose everything if the Taliban take full control again. The Taliban followed Mullah Omars directive when it came to the poppy dealing...he turned that tap on and off when it suited him. Will be interesting to see who will control it now, and what they will do with this cash crop.

smurfjed

China has apparently reopened talks with the Taliban regarding Mining. But unfortunately from watching China dealing with Africa, they appear to bring nothing to the local economy and don’t hire the local workforce.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117657700#Comment_117657700

The bottom line an the Taliban be paid off for their "Protection". Can a tribe like that grasp that notion.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117658436#Comment_117658436

I'd say that is more to do with what happens to the present mining contract they have if or when the present Govt collapses.The Chinese do great deals only for the Chinese......they offer great loans to Countrys who cannot afford to upgrade or build new ports ( Ports being their favourite, but also anything else that gives them a foot hold in any Country they are interested in. Then in default, when the Country cannot meet the repayments, they step in an activate a clause that gives them exclusive control of the facility for X Nr of years. Which will have been build by them using Chinese labour, and when they take over, will be staffed with Chinese. And all perfectly legal.

smurfjed

I have seen that in a number of African airports in the last year, lovely new terminal buildings but there is a missing stretch of concrete so aircraft can’t use it, my guess is that the Chinese are waiting for final payment before they add the concrete.

Manic Moran

Montenegro fell into that trap with their freeway. The debt ended up being higher than the country's revenue.

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/28/1010832606/road-deal-with-china-is-blamed-for-catapulting-montenegro-into-historic-debt

Europe has refinanced the loan. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-montenegro-debt/montenegro-in-final-phase-of-talks-with-europe-to-cut-china-debt-idUSKCN2DT1RS

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117658487#Comment_117658487

Last time they were in charge, they "levied" taxes on the areas they controlled...Farmers, business people, imports / exports etc. All paid taxes. But as to buying them off?? How do you mean?

I don't know.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117658436#Comment_117658436

It would be a lol and a half to watch China blunder into Afghanistan and get chewed up, and they would. Their state media already has printed articles to the effect that they are friends with the Taliban and will do business with them. The tribes of Afghanistan have been slowly strangling invading empires for sport since the Persians in the 12th century. The British, Soviets, Americans have all tried to take a bite and came away with their tails between their legs. They even butchered the grandson of Ghengis Khan.

The truth is they are extremely nervous about the security vacuum that the US will leave behind them. There's a not-insignificant amount of Uighurs and Tajiks hanging out in the north of the country; two ethnicities the CCP have been shoving in gulags in Xinjiang. If they p*ck-around with any mining interests they have secured, they'll find themselves in trouble very fast.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117661154#Comment_117661154

Everyone is jumping on the US ( and their Allies) for "invading" and regime change etc. And to be honest, these chages are more than justified,,Irag and the WMD being the worst of the lot. But Afghanistan is different I think. If there were elections or better still, a referendum in Afghanistan to decide if the US should go or stay after their 20 years stint....My bet would be an overwhelming "Remain" vote. That might seem strange, but when has an army of one country invaded another Country, to spend billions on it, and try to modernize it? Fot twenty years, the American tax payer has financed reconstruction in Afghanistan,,,,,,they built schools, hospitals roads, bridges, water treatment etc. and not only this, they paid the salarys of the military while they trained them, and lots more. That was a lot of money spent in Afghanistan. Some how, I can't see the Taliban lavishing the same amount...last time they were in charge, they ran the Country into the ground...the UN had to step in at times with food, it was that bad. And as for previous invaders, historically Afghanistan has defeated them all so far. Outside of the cities, it can be a very inhospitable place,,,,summer temps rising to the 40's + and sub zero in the winters. Yet you will see a lone Afghan walking along in tne middle of nowhere, in a climate you might not survive more than a few days in, under the same circumstances. As to how the Chinese might do.....interesting question, but we will have to wait a few mths more to see how that plays out. There's growing anger in the Islamic world about what is happening the Uighurs', and if they organise around that issue, they could make a lot of trouble fir China.

Gatling

That's a new one

"China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, called the Taliban “a pivotal military and political force,” but urged their leaders “to hold high the banner of peace talks,” according to a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

He pressed the group to work to burnish its diplomatic image and extracted a public pledge that the group would not allow fighters to use Afghan territory as a base to carry out attacks inside China, according to the statement."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/28/world/asia/china-taliban-afghanistan.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117675775#Comment_117675775

Keep an eye on this one. China and their buddies in Islamabad are the big losers in this security vacuum and Beijing would be correct to be worried.

Earlier this year Indian and Afghani intelligence rumbled a Chinese intelligence cell of a dozen people who were posing as businessmen and language teachers and were said to be financially supporting various extremist groups. China blandly saying they "will not interfere in Afghani internal affairs" is BS, they're already there doing so.

donaghs

Looks like the Taliban wants friendly relations with China, for now.

China Seeks Taliban Promise to Wage War on Uighur Fighters in Afghanistan (newsweek.com)

Taliban outlaws Uyghur Muslim fighters in bid to befriend China (telegraph.co.uk)

In an earlier precedent, Erdogan's Turkey have gone silent on the Uigher issue, in exchange for good relations with China.

The main international fallout I see from this is the Afghan Taliban's ally, the Pakistan Taliban (TTP). in a complicated situation, the Pakistan Intelligence services are aiding the Afghan Taliban - who are aiding the Pakistan Taliban, who are fighting the Pakistan Military.

Opinion | The Taliban is playing a double game - The Washington Post

The Afghan Taliban have been reassuring everyone of their good intentions. "That looks like a smart strategy — yet we’ve just seen a striking departure from this pattern. On July 26, the head of the Pakistani Taliban gave an extraordinary interview to CNN in which he declared that his group intends to seize control of Pakistani territories along the Afghan border and “make them independent.” Why did the Taliban leadership allow him to make such a provocative statement?"

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117679200#Comment_117679200

So Islamabad are now worried about the Taliban.....seeing as they facilitated the madrassas that gave birth to them, with a view to controlling events in Afghanistan. And now they threaten Paklistan itself. Poetic justice, and richly deserved. But it will be interesting to see how China fares out, assuming that the Taliban radical religious stance remains the same as it was before.

ChickenDish

Trillions of dollars, hundreds of thousands of deaths later what have the Americans achieved........? Nothing!

It all plays out like some sick demented joke, infrastructure destroyed, resources/money wasted, trauma/misery caused, human loss, fortunes made, war crimes committed etc etc . And the end result is what?! Nothing has been achieved.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117690763#Comment_117690763

Afghanistan is a security lynchpin for the region. Bang in the middle of a very fragile neighborhood and is a convenient ungovernable bolthole for nefarious actors.

The world (more than that, their neighbors) need a stable Afghanistan. I'll give the US credit for trying to deliver it, even if it was huge cost to them. Islamabad and Beijing (and Dehli for that matter) will need to pick up the slack now.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117690763#Comment_117690763

Not nothing at all; that money and effort bought the experience of what the country could be like if not run by the taliban.

ChickenDish

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117691430#Comment_117691430

So you would have us believe that before America went in to Afghanistan it was unstable and the reason they invaded a sovereign nation was to create stability in the region - what the actual Fcuk

Have you any idea of the instability the Americans and their allies have created in the middle East since they invaded Afghanistan!?

Afghanistan and Iraq are 2 of the most dangerous and unstable countries on the planet because of the Americans.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117691527#Comment_117691527

I'd take a look at the history of Afghanistan before laying the blame at the door of the Americans on this one.

Spare me the WTFness.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117691527#Comment_117691527

I wouldn't call any of these places "stable" before the US, and their allies went into either place. I wouldn't say they made it better or made it worse. They were crazy to into either place. If the Chinese go in they'll plunder any resources and just disappear any opposition, they won't play nice. But its not much different to what the west did with its empires. I doubt anyone will object if they do. The human rights abuses, no one will do anything about because China is too big.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117690763#Comment_117690763

You get your info from some Afghans? Or where? So 20 years of secure education and health services, especially for women, was a waste of money? I've mentioned this earlier but in case you missed it:- If there was a referendum in Afghanistan on whether the US should stay or go, which way would it go??? Believe me , the Taliban are also invaders, but of a most unwelcome kind....they are not bringing peace, stability,prosperity and security. Wait and see what Afghanistan will be like after even one year of Talib rule.

#

Relax brah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117690763#Comment_117690763

They will claim killing bin laden as the victory of going into Afghanistan and in doing so they have made the world a better place

Relax brah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117690417#Comment_117690417

Its amazing how few people understand this.

Pakistan wants a weak Afghanistan to prevent their country from allying with India, Pakistan's arch nemesis, and surrounding Pakistan on two sides.

This is why they have provided tacit support to the Taliban (and terrorist groups) since the invasion. The US literally never stood a chance.

They want to partition Pakistan and each get their lands back(india wants Kashmir and Afghanistan pakhtunkwa). India has been the closest afghan ally since 2000s. India supports Afghanistan in nearly every sector. So much so that the current parliament of Afghanistan was built by India as a gift to them.

AbusesToilets

The US hasn't been fighting the Taliban the last decade or so, it's been fighting the ISI. If Pakistan wasn't wasn't actively supporting and training the Taliban, Afghanistan would have been in an entirely different position. Looking forward to watching Pakistan collapse in on itself in the near future, I just hope that it doesn't come with a nuclear exchange.

ChickenDish

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117691623#Comment_117691623

What Has China got to do with it.

ChickenDish

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117691551#Comment_117691551

What are you on?! So who's fault is it that Afghanistan is a cluster fcuk - the Afgans lmfao

ChickenDish

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117691912#Comment_117691912

Your knowledge of Afghanistan is astounding - seriously the Afghans are better off and want the Americans to stay - what the actual fcuk.

Yurt2

Chill out ChickenDish and pick up a book. Afghanistan has been at war both internally and externally with only brief interludes of peace since the early 19th century with the Siege of Herat. The US occupation is blip on the timeline.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117692871#Comment_117692871

You'll soon find out Henry Kissenger.

Saudi Arabians flew planes into the world trade centers. But Afghanistan was on the list. "Carpets of gold, or carpets of bombs" was the warning the Taliban received from a US diplomat (in relation to some natrual resource deal, IIRC) in the summer of 2001.

Saudis hit the WTC. But Afghans got it in the neck. Planes grounded all over the U.S., but the Bin Ladens are allowed to fly out on their private planes. Bush the Lesser was Head Goat Fu*ker at the time, you may recall. The Bushes and Bin Ladens had been doing business for decades. I don't know what the lessons are, but the phrase 'forked-tongue' comes to mind.

expectationlost

where did the Taliban get all its weapons/ammo from?

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117692887#Comment_117692887

I actually lived there for several years, Kabul ,Kandahar and Herat and my knowledge comes from my personal experiences while there plus I'm still in close contact with my Afghan friends....as for the Americans staying, just wait and see what the Taliban will do...remember they are invaders too, and particularly unscrupulous ones at that. They have already started executing anyone who criticizes them, including a comedian in Kandahar who joked about the Talib leadership on TicTok,,,,,dregged him out if his house in front of his family, slapped him around and then killed him,,they have also shot dead 20 Afghan Soldiers in cold blood after they captured them. The reign of terror has begun..now, if you were an Afghan, and faced with a choice, Taliban or American, who would you pick.???

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117693472#Comment_117693472

May I ask what you were doing there? Were you a service member with a foreign force or contractor?

It's somewhere I'd love to visit if the security situation allowed it, which will probably be never unfortunately the way things are looking.

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117692871#Comment_117692871

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/565460-china-moves-quickly-to-replace-america-in-afghanistan

China has ambitions all over Asia, and China has a border with Afghanistan.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117693500#Comment_117693500

I was connected to a conflict / natural disaster aid organization ( not governmental / military.) As for Afghanistan itself, its a time machine, once you leave the cities and head for the rural areas. Lots of things unchanged since their forefathers time, including their tribal / clan / family systems and way of thinking. One of their gripes against the Taliban is that as they have always been Islamic, why did the Taliban feel that they had to come into their Country, and impose their brand of Islam? Life has improved during the 20 years the US were there, at almost every level, but especially health and education, but even they were unable to stop the corruption, especially at Govt level,,,,and thats the primary reason they failed. The wealth the US spent simply did not trickle down to the ordinary Afghans, it was siphoned off at a mega scale. They're a lovely friendly hospitable people. Always a pleasure to share a meal or simply a cup of tea and have a conversation with them., or have a walk in the bazaars and parks. Well worth a visit if you can manage it.

Thomhic312

Oil.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117692880#Comment_117692880

yes, the afghans are the main reason why afghanistan is a dump.

wes

The Taliban will likely win, as they represent Pashtun Ultra nationalism, and they live there, despite the bizarre claims that they are invaders from some on here.

It is best to leave Afghanistan alone at this point, and let them sort themselves out.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117695624#Comment_117695624

Pashtuns are a transnational ethnic group, there's 10s of millions of them in Pakistan across the border. At various points, Taliban activity would have been more directed from across the Khyber Pass in the tribal areas (and elsewhere) of Pakistan than not. Not to mention with the on-again-off-again assistance of the Pakistani ISI.

I mentioned him earlier on in the thread, but the West's foremost Afghanistan expert is an Irish chap called Michael Semple. Very much 'went native' so to speak (fluent speaker of several local languages including Pashto and Dari) and there's plenty of videos on Youtube and article contributions where he explains the complex mesh of Afghan and Pakistan tribal politics as it related to the conflict in Afghanistan.

smurfjed

Now the Afghani government are blaming the deterioration in safety on the USA’s sudden withdrawal, so yes they really wanted them to stay there. Not to mention that the taliban have refused to even talk about women’s status in the future. The country is doomed, those who got rich on US greenbacks will leave to live wonderful lives in Dubai, the average person will get screwed.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117695624#Comment_117695624

After the Russians left, the original Taliban ( students) swarmed out of the Pakistani madrassas. Hence my statement calling them invaders. They were never invited in to Afghanistan, and were never democratically ( or otherwise ) elected. What they have now morphed into is something else, but for sure, they are not what the majority of Afghans want.