Mayo GAA Discussion

Blackjack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326742#Comment_120326742

Poor Kelly might get a Chinese burn the next day as Karma.

Good luck also. Sure it’s all only a bit of Craic.

Happyilylost

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326075#Comment_120326075

Running across a defender no bother when the player is in possession. Handy way to win a free. Doing it a million miles away from the action is a totally different situation trying to get a lad black carded. In the modern game players run side by side all game long tracking runners. Lads were throwing themselves into each like that no one would be left on the pitch.

Anyway my comment was in jest more in defence of AOS than anything else. Galway is one of the more frequent teams he battered playing full forward and I still get the sweats when he lines up there.

Green Peter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326846#Comment_120326846

Sean Kelly is a super footballer and Mayo know it. He's well able for anything Aidan O Shea can produce at full forward. Kelly and Galway will win an All Ireland SFC in the next 3 years.

muddle84

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120327040#Comment_120327040

I dont think anybody said he isnt! He will have a league title in a few weeks as well im sure and good luck to him!

SqueakyKneecap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326777#Comment_120326777

Absolutely. I think it's a wide open All-Ireland this year and McStay has ye humming nicely. Tommy Conroy will be a huge threat this season.

muddle84

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120325722#Comment_120325722

Paddy Power have odds up now for it as well. Mayo 5/6,Galway 4/1, Kerry 6/1, Armagh 8/1, Roscommon 9/1, Tyrone 16/1

Blackjack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120327603#Comment_120327603

Early days yet. McStay has a habit of having teams running on all cylinders early. Maintaining the momentum for the whole season is what we need to be doing.

Galway getting to the final last year was no flash in the pan. I would have been a huge admirer of PJ as a player but I'm not sure about him as a manager yet. I could be proven wrong this year. I think having Cian O'Neill there alongside him is a great shout though.

PARlance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120328793#Comment_120328793

Those odds are more in line with what I was thinking. I would have Galway and Kerry closer.

It would be a big shock if Kerry lost at home to the Rossies next. If we give them the two points there, it could quite likely come down to Galway Vs Kerry as being the decider.

I can't see Armagh taking 4 points from Galway home and Tyrone away.

10/1 for Kerry is a crazy price imo and it's still available.

PARlance

I see AhRef is running with The McStayWay as a follow on from HoranBall... Tongues firmly in cheek.

Green&Red

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120327040#Comment_120327040

Are you not banned from this thread? Can't keep away

Blackjack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329545#Comment_120329545

I think how the bookies have priced this is reflected in the table in this tweet - if you add the %age chance of finishing 1st and 2nd. Galway being at home to Kerry would put them marginally ahead in the last game.

Roscommon would be underdogs away to Kerry and have Donegal in the last game which could be a relegation decider if we lose to Donegal and Ross lose to Kerry - and so far there's only been 3 away wins which add to the risk for Roscommon vs Kerry and for Kerry vs Galway.

That being the case - I don't expect the GAA betting book is huge so I don't believe the bookies pay a whole lot of attention to it unless they see unusual betting patterns. From what I heard recently PP have about 4 lads who set the odds for everything and the bulk of the work is done by algorithms which would take all sort of data into account. The Football ranking table that @laoisman11 manages (which is excellent by the way) gives a good idea as to how some of the pricing might be done. I expect his prediction model is fairly close to what the bookies would use for their GAA Algos. Oddly it has Mayo down to beat Donegal by 4.4 points but I don't know if it takes into account Donegal's record on Ballybofey.

https://twitter.com/StatsAndSolos/status/1632485062183727106?s=20

PARlance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330152#Comment_120330152

If I'm reading the table correctly, then it has Kerry the most likely team to finish second at 37% likelihood?

I would have thought similar myself. I expect them to beat Galway and Rossies (and I don't expect Armagh to get 4 points). If they beat both, they would be in pole position given the H2H and likely to be in a very strong position in terms of Score Difference if all 3 ended up on 8 points.

Anyway, I'm probably going off topic. Just find this stuff interesting and think the bookies have given a fair bit of value in Kerry at 10/1 and even 6/1.

Blackjack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330353#Comment_120330353

that would be my read of it too. Agreed Kerry look like good value but there are 2 rounds to play in the division and if they were to lose away to Galway that would potentially push them into 3rd, hence the price.

Blackjack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330517#Comment_120330517

That Kerry 3rd place would also assume they beat Roscommon. If Roscommon win or draw against Kerry, then that will almost certainly keep Kerry out of the top 3 unless Galway lose to Armagh and also then to Kerry.

MacDanger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330152#Comment_120330152

Slightly strange quirke in the model there where Kerry are most likely to finish 2nd but have a lower xP than either Roscommon or Galway. I presume it's to do with Kerry having only 4 points on board but still being favourites to win both of their remaining games

Blackjack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330993#Comment_120330993

I'd expect so - if we look at the prediction model from @laoisman11, Galway Armagh is expected to be a draw, and Kerry expected to beat Roscommon - I would imagine the league placing model predicts Kerry to win the next 2, hence the higher expectation of finishing second. That said - if 3 teams finish on 8 points Kerry would have to improve their score difference, but if only themselves and Galway were to finish on 8, it's on the head to head, and Kerry can only get 8 points by beating Galway.

TsuDhoNimh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330993#Comment_120330993

Yeah, that's a fun one to get your head around at a glance.

With Kerry favourites to beat Roscommon/Galway, on paper at least, they'll have multiple scenarios (for now) where they'd pip the other two on equal points. For the scenarios where Roscommon or Galway progress they'd need to have more points than Kerry so ends up with Kerry having the higher % chance of making it while they end up with the slightly higher Latest xP.

Huge fan of the S&S twitter account. They're producing some genuinely fantastic information this year. Not getting nearly the attention they deserve yet. Hope it bumps in popularity to give them plenty of incentive to keep it going.

PARlance

Hadn't seen the S&S account until it was posted above. Great source of info.

Ah Ref podcast also touched on the FAI Connect App that was launched recently. It's genuinely a superb bit of technology. As they were saying, it would be fantastic if the GAA had similar... But it would require a lot more updates at a GAA match to be as effective.

thomas385

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120333969#Comment_120333969

The FAI connect app is genuinely revolutionary. Mayo soccer socials had been extremely lacking for some time (check out some club's Facebook or Twitter pages and their last posts are from 2017). Even with things like upcoming fixtures, team lineups for matches etc. there was such a void of information from Mayo soccer clubs online, save for maybe Kenneth Gannon's very good work for Westport Utd.

Nearly overnight that's been turned around with the new app. Would be a game changer for GAA clubs if something similar could be developed. I don't think it would be too difficult logistically either, as the FAI connect app is fed by the database that the Mayo League has regarding goals, assists, cards etc.

MacDanger

Club championship draw made:

https://twitter.com/MayoGAA/status/1633574093550223362?cxt=HHwWhIC8hfW-z6stAAAA

On the face of it, senior groups 1 & 4 look fairly straight forward; groups 2 & 3 could be tight enough

Groups 3 & 4 in the Intermediate look tight as well

PARlance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334065#Comment_120334065

Can't argue that the soccer has been lacking but they've been trying / making an effort for the last 5 years or so. I was managing a team 2018 -2020 and they used to have a weekly video round up / interviews which created a good buzz and was probably the start of it. But some clubs just didn't have the people interested to keep their social media updated.

Kenneth has been doing a great job for a long long time now. Celtic have this new Veo system for live streams which is also very impressive. Ballyheane had the first ever Mayo League game under lights last week, another positive step.

There's a few good young lads on the Mayo League committee now trying to drive things on. The weekly podcast is very detailed and a credit to them.

Something like FAI Connect would be excellent for GAA, shouldn't be that hard to do, my comment was more that it would be a harder job to keep it accurate with all the scores, various cards etc for a GAA match.

PARlance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334075#Comment_120334075

There'll be some anticipation in Balla/Mayo Gaels for that match.

Would love to see Charlestown get out of Group 2, they'll be more thankful of this year's draw.

Green&Red

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334714#Comment_120334714

You'd be the only one outside of Charlestown hoping for that Par

PARlance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334755#Comment_120334755

🤣 "love" might have been a bit OTT in fairness but I wouldn't mind it tbh, be good to see another team in the last 8 and lived with a nutter from there in college, so no bad feelings towards them.

StatsAndSolos

Hi folks,

Someone on Reddit directed me towards some discussion about my model on here so I've just popped on to explain a bit about it.

The model works a bit differently to others I've seen which typically use some form of the ELO method (winner takes points off loser). This is basically because it was a bit of a project to see could I create something "decent" purely from scratch.

Roughly it works by taking every game and saying "what would this team have scored and conceded vs a hypothetical average opponent in a neutral ground in the middle of July 2022" and then it considers a range of recent performances to get to a rating. It does this for goals and points separately.

This caused me all sorts of headaches and it has as many as if not more problems than other methods, just different ones! One thing I like about it though is wins can be viewed negatively and losses positively, which I think reflects reality. Home advantage can also be quantified explicitly by team.

On the %s to finish in each spot, each game has a predicted scoreline which I then treat as an average and do some maths-ing to simulate 1000 possible outcomes based on that average. So my model will have Kerry beating Roscommon in its prediction but in the 1000 scenarios they may win 85% of the time. As TsuDohNimh has already explained the xP vs % finish apparent contradiction comes from ties. Because the season is so short AND it is only 2 points for a win there are just so many instances of teams ending up on the same number of points. And therefore it can be the case that a h2h advantage (whether that be directly or through PF in a 3-way tie) can be worth a little more than a small amount of expected Points.

Specifically with Division 1 I would say the model is assuming Kerry will perform in their next 2 games at a level they have been nowhere near so far. My model is very slow to change its opinion (depressingly in most circumstances that seems to be the best approach). I think in the case of the game v Galway at least it is fair to say they are less likely to win as many of the 1000 games as the model will be forecasting (it has Kerry by FOUR). This not only means their xP is a little high but Roscommon & Galway's is a little low.

Blackjack

Keep up the good work.

Cartman78

Dempsey gone from the Limerick job....sounds like he resigned but it's fairly weird timing either way.

Blackjack

I heard he got voted out by the players.

Cartman78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120343209#Comment_120343209

Yeah...seen that just now.

Although it's very hard to find anything of note in local media here...Aaron Gillane returning to the hurling squad and Treaty Utd getting stuffed by Cobh is taking all the attention 🙄

MacDanger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120342617#Comment_120342617

Great work S&S, have really enjoyed reading it so far 👍

MacDanger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120343161#Comment_120343161

Yeah, seems like he jumped before being pushed. I actually thought they had potentially turned a corner after a draw against meath and kildare up next isn't a bad game. Disappointing for Dempsey, hoped he'd do better there although D2 was always going to be difficult

dodo mommy

Slight change in subject but mayo gaa none the less.

I was talking to one of the mayo u20 hurlers and he was telling me that last year after every training session the got a drink and a roll to eat, this year they are getting nothing. Very poor form I thought, what are yere opinion's on this?

Blackjack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120345413#Comment_120345413

Shocking if true

MacDanger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120345413#Comment_120345413

That's extremely poor

Squatman

nearly time to start talking about the donegal game?

HBC08

They need it a lot more,we don't even know if we want to be in a league final.

We've never ever won a league game in Donegal.They might think they owe us one after miracle escapes up there in 2018 and more so 2020 (also that famous day in Castlebar in the Super 8s)

I think Donegal will win this but hope not. No injuries and a good performance would be good.

muddle84

I think this will be our first league win against donegal in the league! Would we have held on for those draws in Donegal if they didn't have Michael Murphy or McBrearty?

I get the league final is the week before Connaught, but seriously, a league win for this team would be a huge boost!!

PARlance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120365267#Comment_120365267

Ah Ref had the stats, 9 games in Donegal, 5 defeats and 4 draws.

Given the circumstances, I wouldn't be too confident that we'll get that first win. Donegal absolutely need the win, we'll more than likely look to bring in a few players who haven't played much. O'Hora and Plunket started in a challenge last weekend, I expect we'll see a few more changes like that this weekend.

Green&Red

Good pod by ref this week. Interesting that DOC is being trialled at CB, I think he would be a lot better than Loftus there

spakman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120365373#Comment_120365373

Just to clarify - its Doherty, not Diarmuid O'Connor that was played CB.

PARlance

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120365373#Comment_120365373

Yip, they seem to be going all in on this new CB role, with Loftus and Jason Doc the clear frontrunners. It's a big call and a brave move. You can see what they're trying to do, but I'm not sure I like it...

Despite not losing yet, teams have come through the middle far too easily for me. What we might be gaining in terms their passing ability etc, I think it's wide open to being found out come the business end of things.

spakman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120366130#Comment_120366130

Yep, I'd have the same worry. If we had Oisín Mullin there, I'd be very content...

HBC08

Jason doc is a much stronger tackler and in the air than Loftus.

Sebastian Dangerfield

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368115#Comment_120368115

A lot less mobile though surely...

HBC08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368144#Comment_120368144

Loftus would have him for pace.

Ideally I'd like to see Diarmuid there,he's the perfect candidate but he's needed in mf,he's in the form of his life

happyoutscan

Missed the first half, but TG4 showing some great points that were taken. Looking forward to the second half.

PressRun

Reape terrific on the kickouts and commanding his square.

Aidan imposing himself again and doing very well on the mark. I feel like there is serious work being done with him in training to clarify his role. He has had a good day out.

Mattie seems to have found some form and was running into contact a lot less today.

Paddy Durcan is so direct, you miss him when he's not there.

Unfortunately, the game passed James Carr by. He just couldn't get into it at all. When Conroy came on, he tried hard and is looking okay. Just probably needs a bit more time to get that full match sharpness back.

Our defence did very well as a unit. We plugged some gaps today. Now that all said, Donegal weren't exactly direct or penetrative in attack. Felt they lacked a bit of fight, surprising given what's at stake for them.

Blackjack

Good win. First time to beat Donegal in Donegal. That’s us in the league final now. Some spread of scorers too. Aido deserved MOTM, he was excellent today, put huge pressure on Donegal when they had the ball coming out from goal, and we got a few good possessions and scores off that too. Added 4 points to the scoreboard too, which is great to have him adding to the scoreboard.

Donegal were poor enough all the same.

Barlett

Donegal weren’t great but Mayo have made a lot of teams look poor in the league so far. It’s been an excellent campaign so far & it would be a massive shame not to win the league now.

PressRun

Yeah, I think we have to go for it now. Would be a great bounce going into championship.