Winter 2021/2022 - General Discussion

Pet day here near Arklow today

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118172678#Comment_118172678

MTC is a sheep farmer? Ya learn something new everyday!!! 😂

Láidir agus Dílis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118239544#Comment_118239544

He tends to his flock on boards!

Loughc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240972#Comment_118240972

He has pulled the wool over our eyes from time to time. 😜

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118240972#Comment_118240972

And when the weather gets unseasonal, his flock can sometimes get maggots. Hard to detach type. Will it snow on my front drive tomorrow at 5?...

Stockholm Tar for the lot of them....

Graces7

Essential also to separate the sheep from the goats..

A blissfully peaceful early day here.

met ie promise a wet wet day so please cover your sheep/fleeces well.. Wet fleeces stink!

A pig of a day here in Galway, heavy rain, half dark since 3.

Larbre34

I say it every year, usually more in hope than in expectation, but it does feel more like expectation today - the trend is our friend.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Welcome to winter! 🙂 Thread title edited....carry on your general winter weather discussion here.

M.T. Cranium

Wot's all this?

Just dropped in to comment that the models are at war this morning, Euro and GEM have a major low pressure system diving southeast around Tuesday into Wednesday, across Munster into France. It would produce very strong east winds for parts of Ireland and a sleety cold rain turning to snow on hills. Other models (GFS, UKMO, JMA) don't buy into this and just have some cold zonal flow continuing at that time. However, the GFS does run 30 "perturbations" and about a third of those develop a storm in the general area mentioned. The other two thirds do not. So by Tuesday into Wednesday the operational "ensemble" shows an unusually high spread of over 30 mbs near Ireland. Can we make a forecast from all this? Not really, it's like trying to make soup out of tomatoes, potatoes, and maple syrup. I notice that met.ie have just said that it could get windy and left it at that.

Graces7

Wildest out here for many a while. Hail starting now. driven sideways against the windows by a fierce wind. And the ocean at low tide is a magnificent maelstrom.

West Mayo offshore

Shilock

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118249455#Comment_118249455

It sounds like a wild place wherever you are, somewhere I'd love to retire away from everyone and hit the local town now and again for supplies lol

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118249513#Comment_118249513

And yes! Exactly what I did ; only I don''t even go off island at all; email a list and it comes over on the ferry. Not my first island home either. Love it! Mightily~.... and all the more when we are cut off like now!...

Yes we get more extreme weather BUT it is more that is has much greater effects on daily life than in towns. It is an integral part of life; so no hype as often there is here! Gales are dramatic but create basic practical problems and are very limiting. Not something to yearn for. Just a part of life.

Pangea

Very rough morning here in Donegal, bins tossed , good few commenting that they didn't expect this wind.

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118250290#Comment_118250290

Is it more severe than met ie warned?

Dazler97

I've been trying to find this tread the last few weeks and only found it because someone posted in the autumn forum

mcburns07

First day of winter and it feels it in East Cork. Wind chill is brutal.

pauldry

Ya lots of bins and branches everywhere in Sligo too. It would probably have gotten to force 8 and gale force 9 at times (80 to 90kph) but because we are in NW wind was constant so gusts had more of a "push" so to speak.

Graces7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118250930#Comment_118250930

We tend not to have bins out here. and most native trees gave up to the "ocean breezes" long ago. A case of climate creating surroundings and makes storms less damaging.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118251950#Comment_118251950

No UFO,it's on all camera phone pic's that have the sun in them

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118251980#Comment_118251980

Ah no..it could be the UFO is solar powered 🤣🤣

Gonzo

1st day of winter and it's fairly chilly outside. I think this December will be a little bit colder than average but nothing too wintry on the horizon yet. December is likely to feature a north-west to south-east zonal flow for much of the time with some mild spikes in between. It is currently not clear how unsettled the month will get, how much rainfall or wind we will get but I would expect precipitation to become more wintry in nature if this continues. We may also have a high pressure period at some point during the month that could lead to frost and fog. We may get another northerly plunge at some point before Christmas but it will probably be short lived before the Atlantic rolls over it.

I am still expecting a proper cold spell at some point during January and it remains to be seen if we start getting more of an artic influence on the weather towards the end of December. I think January will actually deliver for us fingers crossed. February of course could also feature another proper cold spell before we transition into the Spring. Of course not all properly cold spells feature snow, sometimes we can get bitter cold but no precipitation, hopefully we get at least one very cold and highly unstable 'direct hit' period of weather this winter. I would also love to see a proper 1982 style battleground situation where a frontal system dumps a red level warranted amount of snow from the Atlantic across the whole country with bitterly cold air already in place and the cold air ends up winning the battle and the mild air staying offshore. Not asking for much am I!, but I feel we may have a better chance this winter than the majority of mild winters since 1992.

M.T. Cranium

There is still considerable model disparity for developments mid-week next week, with the ECM sticking to a deep low moving southeast into France, not quite as severe looking on 12z though, would be a nasty 24 hours of sleety cold rain for many in Ireland, but now the GEM has jumped ship and joined the other models with the more zonal track. Meanwhile the GFS has shifted a bit with a more intense look to the zonal flow, albeit same latitude for the central lows, but with more gradient wind affecting Ireland. This is also the general trend on some other models. Both the GEM and JMA still want to go out of zonality into modified blocking around late in the week, while the GFS keeps a parade of strong disturbances turning into all-out stormy conditions within two weeks.

With this much disagreement between the models, anyone can make any forecast they want and have some hope of verification.

Don't shoot the messenger, I have to get back to my sheep and the 9 to 5 (think I finally understand what all that was about, the guy in the other thread was commenting on how storm Emma was a nightmare for him as a sheep farmer with a 9 to 5 job, and with 70 cms of snow you can understand that. Now trying to decipher the stuff about maggots, that is not a place I really want to spend much time though.

nacho libre

The Netweather winter forecast is a good read: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96436-netweather-winter-forecast-20212022/

Also the UK Met 10 day forecast explaining the current uncertainty with regard to next week is worth a look:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=CBLhNf_Ktus&feature=emb_logo

Graces7

Here? Just tale what comes... Heavily influenced by the basic practical effects of bad ie severe weather of any kind. as it affects daily life to a considerable extent. eg access to supplies that need mainland access..

Love the calm weeks when the ocean mirroring sky is breathtakingly glorious.

With a full pantry and bulging cupboards, what comes will come. No favourites re any one weather. Just the practicalities... like organising when my turkey comes over! YOU know; the vital things that are weather oriented here.

And lovely this long wakeful night listening to the wind oh so slowly and reluctantly lessening and quietening. And now rain....heralded by stronger gusts.

And well before six o'clock; deep intense silence.

West Mayo offshore

bazlers

Just a quick question. If a polar Low advanced over the irish sea, does its percipitation get the sam ooomph so to speak as is the case with streamers and showers coming off the irish sea when frigid air advances over the relatively warmer sea?

OldRio

Horrid last few days. Cold wet and windy.

On the plus side we still have animals outside. Grass was still growing until last week. We'll bring them inside at the weekend. The forecast is not good. (Thank you to everyone who posts forecasts and predictions on this particular board, its appreciated)

Just as a guide. I remember a few years ago we brought them all inside in mid September. (That summer was constant rain and cool)

Whatever happens this winter I can guarantee one thing. Some people will be disappointed.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118254889#Comment_118254889

Polat lows really only pop up quickly

They're not often modeled well beyond 72hrs if at all

In Jan 87,one not strictly fitting the bill but originating in artic Scandinavia drifted across Southern Scotland and Northern England and down the Irish sea into the East, exiting eventually into the Atlantic around Kerry

It dumped close to 2 feet of snow in parts of Dublin

I know this because in the blizzard,we had to walk from Ballinteer to Clonskeagh to catch a bus into town,sometimes knee deep in snow

We took a train from Connolly to Arklow which really struggled from Glenealy to Avoca where something ahead of it was clearing snow

The section inland via Rathdrum down to about woodenbridge was truly awe inspiring

It looked like something out of a Hercule poirot film murder on the orient express

Walked home from Arklow in pouring snow again knee deep at times

So yes Artic origin low's do get an Ooomph when they hit the Irish sea

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118256119#Comment_118256119

If I remember correctly that was a very cold northerly week from about Xmas eve onwards with a front meeting the cold air new years eve falling as snow but turning back to rain on its back end as the mild air flooded in

There was then a 9 year cold spell drought

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118256826#Comment_118256826

Most hills would have alright but most urban areas didn't

By spell too I mean more than 3 or 4 days