Herd immunity is not going to happen

snowcat · 12-08-2021 11:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745383#Comment_117745383

https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/15/1028803/pfizer-wants-to-give-you-a-booster-shot-but-experts-say-its-too-soon/

12-08-2021 11:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745357#Comment_117745357

These lads ran the biggest empire the world has ever seen.

We abstained for WWII despite mass genocide in eastern europe and then sent Hitler a letter of condolsence at the end of the war.

Thats how we do our business.

brickster69 · 12-08-2021 11:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745473#Comment_117745473

Well, at least there is a big air force as back up. Oh hang on, those bar stewards do that for us as well

FoFo1254122 · 12-08-2021 11:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117744925#Comment_117744925

Cso for Ireland

all the stats are official and easily Googled

In the Uk there was unofficially 70,000 excess deaths between 2020 and 2018, for a population of 70 million is no big deal

expect 2021 total deaths to fall back to 2018 levels

amazing reading the old figures the 70s and 80s in the UK regularly saw well over 600k deaths annually, this reducing since the 90s

they were hardy people back then, just got on with it

13-08-2021 12:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745274#Comment_117745274

Why is this surprising?

Just as youd expect

The people unvaccinated are probably in the main young healthy people.

Im sure every graph in the developed world looks similar.

astrofool · 13-08-2021 12:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745455#Comment_117745455

That's still not what that (quickly googled) article is saying. Right now Pfizer are not recommending third or booster shots because they don't have results from studies yet, they might in the future, but Israel is going against current guidance if it starts giving out booster shots from a population that still hasn't hit a 70% vaccinated rate.

TonyMaloney · 13-08-2021 12:12am

I started this thread this morning and I've honestly no idea what you are all banging on about

astrofool · 13-08-2021 12:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745405#Comment_117745405

It's funnier watching you flail about pretending to understand things at this stage than showing you recent posts that you'll also probably fail to understand.

astrofool · 13-08-2021 12:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745562#Comment_117745562

I think the important thing is that you hopefully understand how herd immunity is reached and how and why it will be reached with Sars-Cov2.

TonyMaloney · 13-08-2021 12:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745579#Comment_117745579

Yes. Yes, of course.

I have learned all about that thing that you taught me, and all is now well with the universe

Good night everybody

brickster69 · 13-08-2021 12:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745568#Comment_117745568

Oh right. Is that an answer to a question that you totally never answered ?

What do you think?

One of the worlds superpowers, with one of the greatest scientific brains on the planet did a report by it's health ministry that showed the only vaccine it was using became more or less useless after six months for protecting the people from infection that first took the vaccine ie. the most vulnerable.

You think without double or treble checking all the data to see if it was all ok, they straight away (within 3 days), started to give a third dose to that group of people, going against all the available science at the time. Then they brought in further plans so that everyone over 40 should get a booster ASAP.

Do you somehow get the impression they are taking this very seriously and actually understand what a problem it could be if they do not act straight away ?

Flinty997 · 13-08-2021 1:06am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745640#Comment_117745640

"...became more or less useless after six month..."

Thats not what its says at all.

Flinty997 · 13-08-2021 1:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745510#Comment_117745510

Life expectancy from the 70's to now is up from 70 to 82. Maybe not so hardy.

Not that this is just about deaths, but with everyone locked down the normal deaths from accidents, and such didn't happen. Yet the death rate went up.

So you're two for two, well three for three with being wrong. At least you're consistent.

nocoverart · 13-08-2021 1:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745682#Comment_117745682

Yeah, mods should really crack down on this nonsense. That poster is continuously spreading misinformation. He/She is not the first and not the only one but it’s getting silly now. Feel sorry for the more versed in these matters than I that try to explain in a rational manner. I wouldn’t have the patience.

Charles Babbage · 13-08-2021 1:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741128#Comment_117741128

Last year was last year. hHousehold infection with Delta was very common in the Spring in the absence of vaccination. Why compare two things that are not the same?

Infection will provide some protection for those not vaccinated, but how much? A lot more data is needed. How about people infected and then vaccinated or those who became infected after vaccination?

Flinty997 · 13-08-2021 1:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745126#Comment_117745126

Hardly a website without an agenda is it.

Flinty997 · 13-08-2021 1:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745419#Comment_117745419

The figure is debatable as its early days, and this is at preventing transmissions only. Its still highly effective at the other aspects.

Lets say its 40%, Seems a lot better then 0%.

Marilynr2 · 13-08-2021 3:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745070#Comment_117745070

No, that number is not necessarily accurate at all.

To get a better idea of likelihood of catching it while vaxxed or non-vaxxed the groups would have to be in the exact same environment under the same 'test conditions!

You might say the vaxxed are out and about more and indoor dining etc. so they are exposed more than the non vaxxed which would mean the true number could be even higher for catching it if non vaxxed, but I know lots of people who are double vaxxed who are still keeping their distance from everyone and not socialising or going to the shops etc, while I know lots of non vaxxed who are mixing with lots of different groups and taking no precautions!

So it could be the case that it is the behaviour of the 2 groups that is skewing those figures!

Along with socialising and mixing I know a few non vaxxed who have stopped wearing masks recently and who have stopped using hand sanitiser. There's many who are also seeking out the non discriminatory businesses who don't require mask wearing, barbers etc, and specifically going to those places, which are possibly much higher risk than the other ones in the area!

I'm not vaccinated, but my contacts are still to a minimum, I wear a mask and I use hand sanitiser....my chances of catching covid are a lot less than the non-vaxxed who are partying and not wearing masks, sanitising their hands and so on, so it's not simply about whether people are vaccinated or not!

Atlantic Dawn · 13-08-2021 3:56am

Whoy would you need herd immunity if vaccines work? Those not wanting the vaccing make their own decisions, let the stats decide.

Former Former Former · 13-08-2021 7:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745836#Comment_117745836

Totally agree. Let those not wanting the vaccine make their own decisions. Also, let them be prohibited from workplaces, bars, restaurants, cinemas, schools, public transport, non-essential retail and indoor socialising.

If too many people decline to get vaccinated, the virus continues to circulate in society. If the virus continues to circulate, the majority of people who are vaccinated will not catch it and those who do will have very low risk of illness. However, there are a lot of people who (mainly through age or illness) will not have enough immunity, vaccinated or not, and these people remain at risk of serious illness. The only way to protect them is to keep the numbers declining the vaccine very low (which seems to be working) or keep the unvaccinated people away from everyone else.

No one should be forced to get the vaccine. But equally you should not be allowed to insist on being part of society when it suits and demand your individual freedoms when it doesn't.

(yes, I know the virus is going to continue to circulate anyway)

Lumen · 13-08-2021 7:53am

I think there's a world of difference between offering time limited "early access" to indoor public spaces to the vaccinated while a vaccine rollout is in progress, and creating a permanent state of affairs where unvaccinated people are excluded from public life.

I think most vaccine hesitant people are utter morons, but I do not support a permanent infrastructure for limiting the freedom of morons in this way, even when the exercise of those freedoms contribute to a certain amount of disease and death.

That said, I think I might support businesses that choose to restrict access, on the basis that people ought to be able to choose to go to places where others are also vaccinated. That does sound a lot like apartheid by market forces, though, so it doesn't make me comfortable either.

Marilynr2 · 13-08-2021 7:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745949#Comment_117745949

The vulnerable people are vulnerable right now and yet it seems to be ok for them to be at risk at the moment? Vaccinated people are allowed to mix even though we're still officially in a pandemic, they haven't got the required numbers for herd immunity.. and the vaccinated can still spread it.

The government also had to tell vaccinated people who were showing symptoms to 'STAY AT HOME' because some of them seemed to have forgotten the rule of the last 18 months and went out socialising even though they had covid symptoms and passed it on.

Also people are vulnerable to flu, and no one ever seemed to care about that, or anything else that could be spread to vulnerable people. You're saying the unvaccinated should be excluded from society basically. So what about the vaxxed? what if they have flu or norovirus or anything else? should it be a crime for them to leave the house in this new society or is that kind of thing ok?

Former Former Former · 13-08-2021 8:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745976#Comment_117745976

Ah yeah, I may be exaggerating for dramatic effect.

But I think some level of differentiation is inevitable in the short to medium term, it has to be. When the pandemic gets to manageable levels, remove them, but we are at least a year from that now.

We have incredible levels of vaccine uptake. I would like to believe it's because we're all civic minded and responsible, but a little part of me suspects that the lure of indoor pints is playing a role too. If we can all go back to normal behaviour regardless of vaccine, then maybe people don't bother with it.

The carrot of staying healthy and protecting others obviously isn't enough for some people, and if the carrot doesn't work, then you need a stick.

Lumen · 13-08-2021 8:17am

@Former Former Former wrote

When the pandemic gets to manageable levels

It is at manageable levels now, at least in Ireland.

Aside from some edge cases, the vulnerable are vaccinated. I said months ago that when we reached this point in the vaccination programme we should reopen fully. I am disappointed that we have not achieved herd immunity through vaccination, but I will not allow my goalposts to be moved by that.

If we're not going to crush Covid in mid summer with a freshly vaccinated population, I'm not holding my breath for that happening this winter, or even next summer.

If we can't draw a line in the sand then we're essentially admitting that our relationship with infectious disease had fundamentally changed, and that we're no longer going to accept any level of preventable death from it.

SARS-Cov-2 is not Ebola. It was reasonable to deal with it cautiously when our hospitals were being overrun. We must now find an accommodation with it, and try to return to normal. Those who have an extreme dislike of being sick, myself included, can opt in to precautions and moderate our lifestyle to suit. I did that years ago, eschewing packed public transport for the joys of a bicycle. I will continue to make those type of choices.

brickster69 · 13-08-2021 8:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745718#Comment_117745718

Excuse me, how is it misinformation. i said "did a report by it's health ministry that showed the only vaccine it was using became more or less useless after six months for protecting the people from infection that first took the vaccine ie. the most vulnerable."

I am only going on what has been published not making anything up you know. Hopefully it is wrong who knows.

If it is correct it means that on the 17th of July protection for people who took the jab had 16% protection which is not great, but at least they still have decent protection from severe effects. Maybe after a month it shoots up to 90%.

So again it is not misinformation, it only only information you may not want to hear. Maybe it is false information,hopefully it is. But you would be better pointing the finger at Israel's Health Agency not me.

13-08-2021 8:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117745640#Comment_117745640

Outright lying or trolling at this stage

Former Former Former · 13-08-2021 8:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746013#Comment_117746013

"I am disappointed that we have not achieved herd immunity through vaccination, but I will not allow my goalposts to be moved by that."

We are at 62% of the population fully vaccinated. When did anyone think 62% was going to be remotely enough for herd immunity? Even pre-Delta it needed to be much higher than that.

13-08-2021 8:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746057#Comment_117746057

You are a dangerous purveyor of misinformation. Through deliberate misrepresentation or ignorance, one or the other. Look at the right side of your f*ucking chart.

Add to this the fact that those vaxxinated in January are disproportionately the elderly and vulnerable, those least likely to elicit a strong vaccine reponse.

brickster69 · 13-08-2021 9:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746113#Comment_117746113

Did you read what i said "but at least they still have decent protection from severe effects" This is true, not misinformation or ignorance at all, it is good news which i acknowledged as being so.

If a year ago someone said we have a jab that does not stop you getting it but saves your life everyone would take it straight away. any effectiveness at all is a bonus in my book.If the waning is true it means we will all need a top up at some point.

Flinty997 · 13-08-2021 9:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746057#Comment_117746057

Thats not what it says. Whats the difference between 16% and the 39% in your chart.

I'll say your because you keep posting them with out a link to the source article.

Lumen · 13-08-2021 10:31am

@Former Former Former wrote:

We are at 62% of the population fully vaccinated. When did anyone think 62% was going to be remotely enough for herd immunity? Even pre-Delta it needed to be much higher than that.

I guess I'm jumping the gun a bit based on countries like Iceland which are a little ahead of us (around 69% total pop. fully vaccinated).

From what I recall the original projections were 60% immunity based on an R0 of 2.5 (estimates from early 2020), which could be achieved in theory with around 70% of the population jabbed with a vaccine that reduced transmission by around 85%. There were other positive assumptions like children not being a major source of infection which have since been cast into doubt.

Do you think that herd immunity with normal levels of social contact is still achievable without some further breakthrough in vaccine development?

Former Former Former · 13-08-2021 10:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746573#Comment_117746573

I think we will get to herd immunity - just not the level of herd immunity we enjoy from measles and diptheria. Most Irish people have never even seen a case of measles, let alone contracted it - that won't be the case for Covid, ever.

I think we'll get to the point whereby we can regard Covid like the flu - yes, there will always be people who catch it, get really sick and some will die, but most of us will not have to worry about it day to day.

However, that is a way off yet and the fastest way there is vaccine vaccine vaccine. Teenagers, kids, boosters for the vulnerable and probably boosters for those who got the AZ vaccine first time around. My concern is that when normal life starts to resume, people will become blase about the vaccines and then we slip back.

13-08-2021 11:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746369#Comment_117746369

Why state the vaccine is useless then? Its not useless, at more than 6 months it still maintains almost 90% effectivity at preventing what was the primary goal, serious illness and death in the most vulnerable populations.

Over 75s had a 10% chance of death, under 40s had < 0.1% chance of death. A 90% reduction still leaves >10x rate of death in vaccinated elderly than unvaccinated young. It does not mean its a useless vaccine for the vulnerable.

TomSweeney · 13-08-2021 11:03am

We learn to live with it !!!

Thats what, as new variants emerge they will most likely be less severe albeit more transmissible.

This zero covid nonsense is pure fantasy, hopefully the world will be moving on and living with it, look at Norways announcement of all restrictions removed by late September - knowing that covid will still be spreading and causing serious illness and death in some - but this is inevitable.

Meanwhile Australia and NZ will still be screaming at their citizens that chatting is selfish and prepare for another "snap lockdown" in 5 years time ...

TomSweeney · 13-08-2021 11:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117741371#Comment_117741371

We protect them by vaccinating them, not much more we can do, would you like people to be locked into their homes Chinese style ?

brickster69 · 13-08-2021 11:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746703#Comment_117746703

I never disputed that, i acknowledged it.

" more or less useless after six months for protecting the people from infection that first took the vaccine ie. the most vulnerable."

That is what i wrote, if others read interpret that as saying the whole vaccine is useless then what can i do ?

seamus · 13-08-2021 11:28am

@Former Former Former wrote:

I think we'll get to the point whereby we can regard Covid like the flu - yes, there will always be people who catch it, get really sick and some will die, but most of us will not have to worry about it day to day.

I always qualify things like this with, "Covid is not the 'flu", but sometimes is useful as a way for people to understand the nature of these things. If you've ever had 'flu, you know it doesn't fvck around. A little bit of fatigue, maybe a cough, some sniffles, a day or two on the couch watching TV, is a cold.

2-5 days of being able to barely drag yourself out of bed, staring into space because you basically have no energy for anything else, spiking fevers, brain fog so bad you may as well be dreaming, followed by 3 weeks of feeling a bit "off". That's 'flu.

If your relative over 65 contracts 'flu, there is a not insignificant chance that it will finish them off, especially if they have any pre-existing conditions. Thankfully the flu is considerably less contagious than we typically believe it to be, and as a result it's relatively rare to hear about someone's parent who got the flu and ended up dying a week later. But it happens, every year, all the time. It's just life.

The covid vaccine effectively brings us to the same place. That is, that statistically it will be unlikely for your elderly relative to die from it. The contagiousness will remain high, and people will catch it, but far fewer die from it. But some will die from it. And that is just life. We can't make covid an exception just because it's novel and just wait for an end that may never come.

astrofool · 13-08-2021 11:35am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746057#Comment_117746057

Another chart from brickster69 that has failed to be understood by brickster69.

You've got to be one of those "funny diagram" parody accounts at this stage?

brickster69 · 13-08-2021 11:50am

Haha

Well Israel are pressing ahead

https://timesofmalta.com/articles/view/israel-begins-covid-19-booster-shots-for-over-50s.893245

crossmolinalad · 13-08-2021 12:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117740662#Comment_117740662

Did hear a story also , loads of Olympic players all double vaccinated and lived in a bubble and still got Covid

7 Belgian people in an elderly home , all vaccinated and died with the Colombian virus no unvaccinated person was allowed to get near them so it brought in by vaccinated people

astrofool · 13-08-2021 12:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746945#Comment_117746945

I would guess this is their response to the low uptake in the religious groupings so try and stamp down infections elsewhere to protect those who won't protect themselves (but are politically powerful).

I've no doubt we'll see boosters for older people in Ireland, but the waning efficacy (and really it's not a big drop and is expected as it occurs with all vaccines) doesn't support a mass rollout unless you've already got a weak immune system.

brickster69 · 13-08-2021 1:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117747183#Comment_117747183

Yeah probably. Looks promising early

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-approves-booster-for-people-as-young-as-50-676625

seamus · 13-08-2021 1:33pm

The most important piece of the Israeli puzzle is the vaccine take up by age cohort.

They only have around 90% of their over-60s vaccinated, the rest are holdouts (probably religious orthodox).

All of the data coming out of Israel says that those vaccinated are still well-protected, and if they are struggling with death and hospitalisation rates, it's not because the vaccine is less effective, it's because they have a substantial number of their vulnerable population still completely exposed and a more contagious variant on the loose.

The lessons from Israel are not "we need boosters to keep us going", but "aim for as close as possible to 100% vaccination in people over 55".

astrofool · 13-08-2021 1:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117747450#Comment_117747450

I think that's the difference delta has made for vulnerable, you can't rely on others to get a shot for you anymore.

TomSweeney · 13-08-2021 2:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746846#Comment_117746846

Spot on .

Great post

And we would have disagreed much in the past.

As this progresses , we will see lots of people's opinions diverge into basically the same .. area ... thing .. whatever ... you know what I mean ..

Marilynr2 · 13-08-2021 4:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117746103#Comment_117746103

WHO (among others) estimated it at 60-70% last year based on how transmissible the virus was initially and I assume they thought that the vaccine would stop transmission also!