September 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2021. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.

6. BONUS -- We will have a relatively short-range bonus question -- predict the total rainfall at Mullingar in the first six days of the month (rainfall ending with the observations on Monday 6th). If no rain falls by the time you enter, there will only be the late penalty for late forecasts, but if rain has fallen before your forecast is submitted (as part of a late forecast) then there may be a cap on your potential score. (just in case anyone interprets the bonus as six different forecasts, we just want the total by (and including) the sixth of the month. The normal value will be set as the GFS numerical prediction for the interval appearing on the first as part of the 00z run.

Deadline will be 0300h Wednesday 1st of September. Late penalties are one point per four hours late, to 1500h 2nd, after which it increases to one point per hour.

200motels

200motels----------- 13.3----- 21.2--- 2.2------- 82------- 98-------- 2.2mm

pauldry

pauldry----------- 13.1----- 24.2--- 0.2------- 120------- 98-------- 28.7mm

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____ 13.3 _ 22.1_ 1.9_ 95 _ 95_ 4mm

sunflower3

sunflower3____ 13.5 _ 22.8_ 1.5_ 92 _ 85_ 3mm

dasa29

Dasa29____ 13.4 _ 22.0_ 1.0_ 95 _ 105_ 10mm

DOCARCH

DOCARCH_____12.9__23.6__0.8__96__110__4.2mm

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ______ 13.8 __ 22.2 __2.3 __123 __ 96 __ 8mm

John mac

john mac____ 13.4 __24.8__ 1.8__ 103 __ 90__ 8mm

waterways

waterways____ 13.4 _ 23.7_ -2.0_ 85 _ 101_ 11.1mm

mrskinner

Skinner___13.5___24.5___0.5___90___110___15mm

mr.stonewall

Mr stonewall____12.9___21.8__1.8___93___88___5.2mm

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium _______________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 105 _ 095 _ 12.1 mm

NormaL ____________________13.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0.5 mm*

The 12z GFS on Aug 31 was showing 17.5 mm but the 00z run shows just trace amounts. Anyway, that is what NormaL is going with, for better or for worse.

Most of the rainfall on the 12z run was Saturday into Sunday.

Joe Public

Joe Public____ 14.1 _ 23 _ 1.4 _ 70 _ 120_ 3.5mm

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___13.1 ___ 21.02 __ 1.01 ___ 105 ___ 95 ____ 5mm.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir----------- 13.1----- 19.5--- -1.8------- 110------- 80-------- 4.5 mm

appledrop

Appledrop__13.4__22.5__1.8__90__85__9mm

dacogawa

Dacogawa _________ 13.3 _ 22.7 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 091 _ 2.4 mm

Gonzo

Gonzo _______________ 12.9 _ 22.3 _ -0.8 _ 117 _ 092 _ 4.1 mm

Artane2002

Artane2002 ____________________13.3 _23.2 _ -1.3 _ 95 _ 105 _ 3.8mm

Jpmarn

Jpmarn  ____________________13.8 _ 25.5 _ 0.5_ 120 _ 105 _ 18.5 mm

adam240610

Adam240610__13.1__23.0__0.1__135__88__19.2mm

Sorry for late entry!

Bsal

Bsal ____ 13.4 _ 25.0_ -0.5_ 105 _ 90_ 7mm

Danno

Danno ____ 13.8 _ 24.2_ 0.7_ 80 _ 115_ 13mm

M.T. Cranium

Table of Forecasts September 2021

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Prc Mul 1-6

Joe Public _________ 14.1 _ 23.0 _ 1.4 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 3.5

Jpmarn ___________ 13.8 _ 25.5 _ 0.5 _ 120 _ 105 ___18.5

Danno ______ (-4) __13.8 _ 24.2 _ 0.7 _ 080 _ 115 ___13.0

Tae laidir __________13.8 _ 22.2 _ 2.3 _ 123 _ 096 ___ 8.0

MrSkinner _________ 13.5 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___15.0

M.T. Cranium ______ 13.5 _ 24.0 _-1.5 _ 105 _ 095 ___12.1

sunflower3 ________ 13.5 _ 22.8 _ 1.5 _ 092 _ 085 ___ 3.0

Bsal _______ (-3) __ 13.4 _ 25.0 _ -0.5 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 7.0

john mac __________13.4 _ 24.8 _ 1.8 _ 103 _ 090 ___ 8.0

waterways ________ 13.4 _ 23.7 _-2.0 _ 085 _ 101 ___11.1

Appledrop _________ 13.4 _ 22.5 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 085 ___ 9.0

Dasa29 ___________ 13.4 _ 22.0 _ 1,0 _ 095 _ 105 ___10.0

___ Con Sensus _____13.4 _ 23.0 _ 0.7 _ 096 _ 095 ___ 7.0

Artane2002 ________ 13.3 _ 23.2 _-1.3 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 3.8

Dacogawa _________ 13.3 _ 22.7 _-1.0 _ 110 _ 091 ___ 2.4

200motels _________13.3 _ 21.2 _ 2.2 _ 082 _ 098 ___ 2.2

sryanbruen ________ 13.3 _ 22.1 _ 1.9 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 4.0

pauldry ___________ 13.1 _ 24.2 _ 0.2 _ 120 _ 098 ___28.7

Adam240610 __(-1) _13.1 _ 23.0 _ 0.1 _ 135 _ 088 ___19.2

Kindred Spirit ______ 13.1 _ 21.0 _ 1.0 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 5.0

Gaoth Laidir _______ 13.1 _ 19.5 _-1.8 _ 110 _ 080 ___ 4.5

___ NormaL _______ 13.1 _ 25.0 _-1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 0.5

DOCARCH _________ 12.9 _ 23.6 _ 0.8 _ 096 _ 110 ___ 4.2

Gonzo ____________ 12.9 _ 22.3 _-0.8 _ 117 _ 092 ___ 4.1

Mr stonewall _______ 12.9 _ 21.8 _ 1.8 _ 093 _ 088 ___ 5.2

________________________________________

23 forecasts means that Con Sensus (median) is 12th ranked forecast in each category.

Tae laidir

Most models forecasting little or no rain for Mullingar.

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117840731#Comment_117840731

Looks like it all went further north but Newport had over 10 mm earlier. It all went up towards Ulster though.

GFS 12z on Aug 31 not good, GFS 00z Sep 1 much closer. Will likely beat all of us.

Tae laidir

Mullingar 0.2mm yesterday.

appledrop

We should get our Max temperature today.

M.T. Cranium

Our lowest forecast for the bonus was 2.2 mm (200motels) and I assume the final total will be well under that. (NormaL was posted as 0.5).

That being the case, scores would be as follows ... somewhat irregular but I tried to give similar forecasts the same score as well as going in pairs as the basic concept (NormaL and Con Sensus don't count as forecasters):

10 _ NormaL (0.5), 200motels (2.2), dacogawa (2.4)

9 _ sunflower3 (3.0), Joe Public (3.5)

8 _ Artane2002 (3.8), sryanbruen (4.0), Gonzo (4.1), DOCARCH (4.2)

7 _ Gaoth Laidir (4.5)

6 _ Kindred Spirit (5.0), Mr Stonewall (5.2)

5 _ Con Sensus (7.0), Bsal (7.0), Tae laidir (8.0), johnmac (8.0)

4 _ Appledrop (9.0)

3 _ dasa29 (10.0), waterways (11.1)

2 _ MTC (12.1), danno (13.0)

1 _ MrSkinner (15.0), JPmarn (18.5), Adam240610 (19.2)

0 _ Pauldry (28.7)

______________________________

there had to be one group of three to get pairs to work (11 scoring levels), but once I listed them that way, some large gaps appeared in the same scoring level on several occasions so I reshuffled the deck to get closer groupings. Thus Adam240610 escaped the zero level, and various other problems were resolved.

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117852559#Comment_117852559

Probably, and probably a higher one tomorrow. 🙂