Autumn 2021 - General Discussion

Oneiric 3

National daily temp anomaly since April. Up and up and up.

Green line = 28 day running. Looking at the longer term trends, I think we are just at the start of renewed warming period after that relatively prolonged cool period that peaked during the Spring and a warming which I reckon will peak during the Winter and the first half of next year.

Data from Met Eireann.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117869104#Comment_117869104

From a subjective perspective, I've noticed how warm the nights have been.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117869364#Comment_117869364

I might take a look later on but it wouldn't surprise me if this was the longest run of excessively warm nights at this time of year on record. Long term average minima for here at least is between 8c and 9c for this time of year and these values just seem so unachievable this year.

Hairypoppins

Torrential downpours with flash flooding on and off all day here in South West Dublin, I could see other parts of the city doing well with sunshine while we were getting one monsoon after another

Oneiric 3

ECMWF 15 day temp average outlook:

No shift in the temp profile that we have seen since the 2nd half of summer at all. Wave after wave of excessive heat and humidity while only the eastern half of Europe gets to see anything remotely seasonal. Too early to say at this stage, but it wouldn't surprise me at all looking this forecast that this September could end up being one of the warmest on record. Not sure what is happening to the north Atlantic circulation, but the lack of any real circulation over the ocean that we have witnessed these last two months is totally abnormal. What is the cause? I don't know but the fact that temperatures in the Arctic region are running way above normal suggests that this could be one of possibly many drivers of this ongoing hell pattern.

Danno

Not sure that the Arctic temperatures are "way above normal". In fact, the majority of summer Arctic temperatures have been slightly below normal and it has been cooling off on par with average there with the exception of the last day or two...

As for 8c and 9c overnight minimas - around these parts, these are the ~10c or lower overnight minima recorded recently:

Sept 7th: 10.2c

Sept 5th: 10.4c

Sept 2nd: 10.8c

Aug 30th: 9.3c

Aug 29th: 8.1c

Aug 28th: 7.8c

Aug 27th: 10.4c

Aug 26th: 9.6c

Aug 25th: 9.5c

Aug 24th: 9.8c

So over the seventeen nights, we've had six nights of 11c or more. Not that bad I'd say.

Oneiric 3

While it seems average (thereabouts) north of the 80th, it isn't so much so south of it Danno.

Edit, and this is the 30 day 'hindcast'.

Excessive warmth, for whatever reason, became lodged between France and Iceland during the 2nd half of July and has not budged at all really, and even when it did, it returned almost instantly. I just don't know what is going on with that to be honest and can only speculate.

Billcarson

Hate this warm humid weather with a passion. I can accept it more to an extent when its summer because its summer but not in September when I'm getting into autumn mode. The mild humid nights of late are getting on my nerves .

Its feels like we are in the middle of summer temperature wise. Looking forward to it being fresher over the weekend.

Warm Septembers don't seem to bode well in recent times for those wanting a cold winter ,that's another thing I don't like about this current warmth. I know we are only 10 days into the month but I'd be surprised if the tone for the month overall has not been set ,so I think it is likely September will come in well above average . Just hope that doesn't set the tone for the following coming months.......

Beechwoodspark

Yep. Same. Probably my least favourite weather is grey and humid weather. Awful. Would prefer almost anything over this.

Calibos

This would have been an Epic Summer to rival or even surpass the greats and even I would have put up with the humidity.............if we had gotten more blue skies with the persistent High Pressure all Summer, instead for most of it the High has actually capped/trapped persistent cloud rendering what could have been an Epic Summer into a muggy humid dull Summer for the most part except for a couple of weeks here and there. The only consolation is that the UK fared the same and didn't even get the great 10 days in July like us. Nothing worse than us enduring a 'Meh' Summer, yet only 90km across the Irish Sea, see them enjoy an Epic Summer.

Amadan Dubh

Will summer ever end?

Another day where I have the feeling that summer will last 6 months once again. Coastal Wicklow location where any prospect of rain has consistently fallen away as the sun constantly breaks up the clouds. There has been approximately one day in the past few months where it rained all day and I can only recall a handful of times we even had some showers.

I'm sick of this two season climate we have!

Gonzo

There is nothing unusual about getting summer style temperatures and a warm spell during first half of September, we get one nearly every September. We will be back into autumnal conditions very soon and have about 8 months of cool, chilly and cold weather ahead of us. I would love another 3 weeks of summer warmth and sunshine and then the switch to autumn proper in October. We don't get enough dry, warm and sunny weather in this country so have made the most of the lovely weather over the past week. It will probably be mid May before we see 20C again.

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117873896#Comment_117873896

While I agree with much of what you say Gonzo we will surely see 20c again this year and probably again this month. September 2021 will be in the top 5 warmest on record at least. Sure it was 27.9c at the start of the week! I'd say we will see 20c in September again and October maybe not November.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117873354#Comment_117873354

I am of the growing belief that rain in the summer is almost as rare as snow in the winter.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117874783#Comment_117874783

Ah stop 😂

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117874783#Comment_117874783

🤣🤣🤣🤣

OldRio

Great growing conditions for the grass. Fair amount of rain last week and warm temperatures.

Lovely day today. Warm and some sunshine.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117874783#Comment_117874783

East coast of Ireland, coastal south Dublin and north Wicklow, is my own area, and for sure this is becoming more believable. I haven't seen a good rain in weeks or months at this stage. Snow in the winter just gone never materialised either when it seemed to hit slightly more inland. It's like we are in a little dry, heat bubble here. I'm going to have to move west I think for some cooler, wetter weather.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875740#Comment_117875740

This is generally true

June and July often the driest locally here

We've been lucky at my location to catch some wet thunderstorms this summer

But other than that minimal rain

This is probably going to be one of my last regular posts on this site for a while,I've given the new format a chance but it's a mare and a headache on the eyed

Its just a pain to navigate

I'll drop back if there's significant weather

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117875740#Comment_117875740

I'm afraid you'd be jumping from the frying pan into the fire if you did move west. Rain seems to be becoming a thing of the past in these parts and if it is cooler weather you are after, then forget it. I honestly can't remember the last time I have felt in anyway cool. Even during other humid spells in other years, you'd get a bit of a breeze to help a little, but even those normal slight breezes have ceased to be. Heat and humidity aside, I don't recall such an extended period of stagnant, unchangeable, nothing weather in all of my born days.

rubbledoubledo

The new moon coming in very good. Standing straight up. Good weather to come. My father swore by it and that generation. He saying was if you could hang your hat off it , sign of very bad weather to come , in other words if it’s lying on it’s back , no good 😊

External Association

I picked an inland western station, Newport Furnace. June, July below average rainfall, August above. Drier than average summer. But plenty of rain fell. Same for Mt. Dillon.

https://www.met.ie/climate/available-data/monthly-data

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117874316#Comment_117874316

It gets increasingly difficult to get temperatures of 20C once we reach October. This mornings GFS is showing up a major heat plume over Ireland for the final week of September with temperatures possibly reaching 25C if it verified but it is very unlikely to verify being in the extended range of FI.

sryanbruen

The latest 20C on record for Ireland is 20.0C at Rathfarnham Castle (Dublin) on 4 November 1946. The earliest 20C on record I cannot 100% confirm but the earliest I am aware of is 20.7C at Valentia (Kerry) on 19 March 2005.

The latest 20C for Meath for Gonzo's interest is 20.2C at Navan on 27 October 2005 whilst the earliest is 21.0C at Warrenstown on 25 March 2012 (Dunsany achieved 20.0C same day and Navan achieved 20.6C).

Gonzo

I didn't think 20C was possible in November! In 1946 that must have been a direct hit African plume.

Today's models certainly have plenty of scope for low 20's at times over the next 2 to 3 weeks. My local station of Dunsany is currently running at 3C above average and with temperatures set to remain above average for the forseeable future, it will be interesting to see where we end up by the end of the month. This will most definitely be a warmer than average September.

Danno

Looking back at my own records here in Durrow going back to 2008, my latest 20c+ was October 8th (2010), whilst my earliest 20c+ was March 28th (2012), a stretch of 5mths and 3wks between the two calendar dates.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117878401#Comment_117878401

Rathfarnham - right under the Dublin mountains, there was some fohn effect that day!

Oneiric 3

I recall we got 20c + here in October about 2 or 3 years ago (can't remember exactly) as did a lot of places in the country.

Was lovely to be out in the (relatively) coolish air tonight and long may such nights continue.

sryanbruen

Yep, temperatures in the high teens and low 20s by November usually require the foehn effect coming into play with an ideal wind direction such as a southerly/southwesterly for Dublin in this instance. The only other time that November recorded 20C in this country was 1 November 2015 when Dooks (Kerry) achieved 20.1C which became our national record.

The day Oneiric 3 is thinking of is 10 October 2018 which was true Indian Summer conditions as late September had recorded some unusually cold nights and plenty of grass frost. Here's a selection of places that achieved 20C or more that day:

sporina

Jaysus tis lashing here in Cork City - I didn't see that coming (hadn't seen WF)

Gonzo

I am fairly sure I remember that leading up to the November/December snows of 2010 we had a very warm day and 21C with unbroken sunshine around the 1st or 2nd of October 2010. I was in college at the time and remember everyone sitting out having their lunch on the greens around the campus and it was like a summers day. A few weeks later we were buried in snow.

lolie

Looking Northwest here in south Cavan.

Blue skies very very slowly making inroads, was a lovely fresh morning

Currently 15°c out.

Gonzo

Fairly damp here in Meath and slate grey skies, cool too. Very similar to final days of August/first few days of September. Today may well be an isolated case of cooler than average temperatures and we should be back in the high teens from tomorrow.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117879955#Comment_117879955

11 October 2010 was one of the nicest days I have experienced. High teens and blue skies throughout the day was a beautiful sight to see in October. 12th was also another lovely day but there was a bit of a chill compared to the 11th as the onshore breeze picked up before it clouded over the following days. 10 October 2018 felt like a throwback to that day.

A mostly clear Ireland satellite image on 11 October 2010. It's rare enough to see our country clear as this in the middle of summer, never mind October.

Dungarvan (Waterford) did achieve 19.0C on 3 November 2010 too but that was a mild, cloudy and fairly unsettled period with outbreaks of rain for most areas so not very summery. Meanwhile, Clonroche (Wexford) got down to -11.5C 26 days later...

Oneiric 3

We are running up to 3 degrees warmer this year compared to the same period last year, which still came in warmer than average.

2020:

2021

Data from Met Eireann.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117879955#Comment_117879955

The NH profile for this coming week would be most welcome in winter. Maybe we'll get another big snow this year.

igCorcaigh

The forecast for down here today was quite a bit off. Constant rain for all day today (and tomorrow) was predicted, but it dried up in the afternoon. Not so bad after a very rainy morning. Let's see if the forecast of thundery rain plays out tomorrow morning.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117879955#Comment_117879955

I am currently watching the latest 'GavsWeatherVids' installment and he is musing that those looking for a cold winter that the odds aren't great as the stats show that warm Septembers tend to be followed by mild winters. Whether this is a direct correlation between both, or just coincidental noise I don't know, but interesting nonetheless.

Gonzo

I've been busy recently and havent had the time to watch Gav's winter forecast updates. I've heard it before that mild or warm Septembers can often be followed by mild winters. I find that a bit strange because it should be fairly normal to have a mild or warm September, especially the first half of the month which follows on from Summer. Our seasons have a habit of starting late and merging into the following season. Ive also heard that anticyclonic Octobers and mild, wet Novembers can help a cold winter too. I would probably consider sea surface temperatures a bigger player in what style of winter we get compared to how warm or cold a September is.

sporina

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117882337#Comment_117882337

was just about to post the same.. forecast was for rain all day today - no rain since 11am - whats going on with ME? wrong yday too

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117884111#Comment_117884111

Anytime the cet for example has finished as high as the 16,s Celsius (not that there has been many) for Sept has always been followed by a mild winter.

Think the cet at this stage of the month is in the 18s. So its likely it will probably finish in the 16s by the end of the month. Not good.

Remember the nights have been very mild too so far this month . We may be used to getting warm weather in September which is nothing new, but it has been very warm for September so far overall, probably most notably the nights.

OldRio

Raining here in South Leitrim after a cloudy day.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117884111#Comment_117884111

I believe we do because remember November 2009 was such a wet month with flooding in the west badly and then we had a cold December and very cold start to 2010

Danno

Quite a wet evening in this part of Laois. Two downpours in the late afternoon. AWS reports 10.2mm!

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117886340#Comment_117886340

I think November 1981 was exceptionally wet as well and that was followed by a cold and very snowy December/early January.

pauldry

I think it was 21c on Halloween a few years ago. Maybe it was in Britain. I'd say we definitely have lots of 20c days left before the end of October.

I was looking at Markree (a relatively cold station) on Climate Data on Met Eireann. Since July 1st there has been 8 or 9 days colder than normal and around 60 warmer or way warmer than normal.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887320#Comment_117887320

Interesting. In Claremorris, there has been 10 days since July 1st (and up to the 11th of this month) that were average or cooler than average, and 62 days that were above. In other words, 86% of days above average and 14% on or below average.

• Data from Met Eireann.

DOCARCH

Fine morning in Greystones. 15.0c atm.

OldRio

Heavy showers this morning in Leitrim.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117881306#Comment_117881306

Woah, that is an incredible difference. You really feel it as well; the consistent and long-lasting warm and dry weather the last few months seems almost unbelievable (north Wicklow). It's not great to read there is a correlation with a mild winter - please do not let correlation equal causation!