Autumn 2021 - General Discussion

Gonzo

I am fairly sure I remember that leading up to the November/December snows of 2010 we had a very warm day and 21C with unbroken sunshine around the 1st or 2nd of October 2010. I was in college at the time and remember everyone sitting out having their lunch on the greens around the campus and it was like a summers day. A few weeks later we were buried in snow.

lolie

Looking Northwest here in south Cavan.

Blue skies very very slowly making inroads, was a lovely fresh morning

Currently 15°c out.

Gonzo

Fairly damp here in Meath and slate grey skies, cool too. Very similar to final days of August/first few days of September. Today may well be an isolated case of cooler than average temperatures and we should be back in the high teens from tomorrow.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117879955#Comment_117879955

11 October 2010 was one of the nicest days I have experienced. High teens and blue skies throughout the day was a beautiful sight to see in October. 12th was also another lovely day but there was a bit of a chill compared to the 11th as the onshore breeze picked up before it clouded over the following days. 10 October 2018 felt like a throwback to that day.

A mostly clear Ireland satellite image on 11 October 2010. It's rare enough to see our country clear as this in the middle of summer, never mind October.

Dungarvan (Waterford) did achieve 19.0C on 3 November 2010 too but that was a mild, cloudy and fairly unsettled period with outbreaks of rain for most areas so not very summery. Meanwhile, Clonroche (Wexford) got down to -11.5C 26 days later...

Oneiric 3

We are running up to 3 degrees warmer this year compared to the same period last year, which still came in warmer than average.

2020:

2021

Data from Met Eireann.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117879955#Comment_117879955

The NH profile for this coming week would be most welcome in winter. Maybe we'll get another big snow this year.

igCorcaigh

The forecast for down here today was quite a bit off. Constant rain for all day today (and tomorrow) was predicted, but it dried up in the afternoon. Not so bad after a very rainy morning. Let's see if the forecast of thundery rain plays out tomorrow morning.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117879955#Comment_117879955

I am currently watching the latest 'GavsWeatherVids' installment and he is musing that those looking for a cold winter that the odds aren't great as the stats show that warm Septembers tend to be followed by mild winters. Whether this is a direct correlation between both, or just coincidental noise I don't know, but interesting nonetheless.

Gonzo

I've been busy recently and havent had the time to watch Gav's winter forecast updates. I've heard it before that mild or warm Septembers can often be followed by mild winters. I find that a bit strange because it should be fairly normal to have a mild or warm September, especially the first half of the month which follows on from Summer. Our seasons have a habit of starting late and merging into the following season. Ive also heard that anticyclonic Octobers and mild, wet Novembers can help a cold winter too. I would probably consider sea surface temperatures a bigger player in what style of winter we get compared to how warm or cold a September is.

sporina

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117882337#Comment_117882337

was just about to post the same.. forecast was for rain all day today - no rain since 11am - whats going on with ME? wrong yday too

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117884111#Comment_117884111

Anytime the cet for example has finished as high as the 16,s Celsius (not that there has been many) for Sept has always been followed by a mild winter.

Think the cet at this stage of the month is in the 18s. So its likely it will probably finish in the 16s by the end of the month. Not good.

Remember the nights have been very mild too so far this month . We may be used to getting warm weather in September which is nothing new, but it has been very warm for September so far overall, probably most notably the nights.

OldRio

Raining here in South Leitrim after a cloudy day.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117884111#Comment_117884111

I believe we do because remember November 2009 was such a wet month with flooding in the west badly and then we had a cold December and very cold start to 2010

Danno

Quite a wet evening in this part of Laois. Two downpours in the late afternoon. AWS reports 10.2mm!

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117886340#Comment_117886340

I think November 1981 was exceptionally wet as well and that was followed by a cold and very snowy December/early January.

pauldry

I think it was 21c on Halloween a few years ago. Maybe it was in Britain. I'd say we definitely have lots of 20c days left before the end of October.

I was looking at Markree (a relatively cold station) on Climate Data on Met Eireann. Since July 1st there has been 8 or 9 days colder than normal and around 60 warmer or way warmer than normal.

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887320#Comment_117887320

Interesting. In Claremorris, there has been 10 days since July 1st (and up to the 11th of this month) that were average or cooler than average, and 62 days that were above. In other words, 86% of days above average and 14% on or below average.

• Data from Met Eireann.

DOCARCH

Fine morning in Greystones. 15.0c atm.

OldRio

Heavy showers this morning in Leitrim.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117881306#Comment_117881306

Woah, that is an incredible difference. You really feel it as well; the consistent and long-lasting warm and dry weather the last few months seems almost unbelievable (north Wicklow). It's not great to read there is a correlation with a mild winter - please do not let correlation equal causation!

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888819#Comment_117888819

To put those figures into more context, those 7 day values (re 2021) are running up to 1.0c or more above any LTA average 7 day period within the warmest section of the year (between July 15th & August 15th)

For example, the warmest 7 day period on average (81-00) at Casement Aerodrome is 16.1c between July 23rd & 29th which makes those referred to values even more remarkable.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888819#Comment_117888819

Well if correlation doesn't mean causation it has to mean something. If a trend sets up like a warm trend we have had of late i belive it can often set the tone for a number of months to come. Add to that the background warmth of a warming planet and this winter imo could be disastrous from a cold winter lovers perspective.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117888037#Comment_117888037

Roger that down the road here near Arklow

A warm feeling 18c

We've only had about 4mm rain in September so far Here

Current view :

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117887034#Comment_117887034

Yes I believe there's some link alright but only time will tell weather this winter will be stormy start and then cold, or mild and stormy

Meteorite58

Lovely calm fresh night out there, down to 12.6C now after a high of 17.7C, lovely air after the overcast humid day.

Quite wet overnight with 7mm in the gauge this morning .Great visibility in the sky this evening.

The Moon tonight: Waxing gibbous 61.4%

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117889022#Comment_117889022

I haven't looked but it wouldn't surprise me if mean wind speeds this year, and up to this point in the year, came in the lowest since that of the same period in 2010. Probably no connection at all to what occurred in the following Nov/Dec, but at the same time, an Atlantic without oomph struggles just that little bit harder to keep Arctic air masses at bay (once they get going that is).

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117893960#Comment_117893960

Yes there are some positives going into this coming winter. Quite Atlantic for much of this year. We are at around the same point in the solar cycle as a decade ago with that brief period of colder winters. And perhaps last winter was a bit of a teaser winter and this one will be better....

But I still wouldn't be surprised either at all if this coming winter is a complete dud .

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117893960#Comment_117893960

National average wind speed for January to August 2021 was 9.1 knots which is indeed the calmest for the period since 2010 (8.5 knots). This is more than a 1 knot decrease on the same period in 2020 which was the windiest since 2015.

Interestingly, Casement had its calmest January to August in 2021 since 1989.

I don't have the Irish station stats at the moment to say this is true or not but I believe this summer was one of the calmest on record, see the below.

https://twitter.com/weather_king/status/1434812313614397441?s=20

Wall to wall Blue sky

this morning in Arklow

Less than 4mm rain here so far in September

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117895099#Comment_117895099

Very interesting Syran. I just ran through the 'Ag reports' since the onset of the year and up to the 14th of this month, that 9.1 knots you have mentioned has fallen to 8.5 kts! But as you know, these set of data is based on 7 day running averages on a more limited set of stations than you would have used, so the general criteria differs. But still. September average so far (based on these reports and from the limited number of stations used on them) is just 5.5 knots! with the highest 7 day average being just 8.5 knots at Roches Point between the 7th and 13th of the month.

On a somewhat related note. 60 years ago today, and at around time of day, history was about to be made across the entire west of Ireland. If there was one event that I really wish I was around for, it would have been this one.