FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

pauldry

Certainly trending colder if only frosty for the end of the month.

This is the mild muck we usually get in December so the cold might set in earlier than March or April this Winter.

Models like to predict cold at the end of November though as I've seen it many years and it's ended been 10 or 11c

Gonzo

GFS 18z isn't cold like the 12z, however more runs are turning colder than average, a definite downward trend in temperatures from November 17th with at least 3 of them getting close to -10C uppers at the very end. We may have to wait a few more days to see if the ECM and GEM follow.

Uppers look warmer than average until the 17th but if high pressure takes control from this weekend and into next week, those warm uppers may well not be reflected on the ground if clear skies take hold with night time frosts and fog a possibility, so air temperatures could turn fairly chilly.

GFS is also mostly dry over the next 2 weeks with barely any rain away from the north-west.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118139265#Comment_118139265

0z brings the cold back and it’s the coldest run yet for how low the 850s get. Don’t know what it is with the GFS consistently over-amplifying this mid-Atlantic ridge at the moment.

sryanbruen

All gone on 12z operational now again, FI looks zonal even 😂 maybe now things will calm down instead of these overamplified cold outliers.

pauldry

St Patrick's Day is looking like an ice age on CFS.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118142652#Comment_118142652

12z very mild indeed and the colder outliers now also pulled back into milder territory. GEM and ECM also both very mild from current frame to the last frame. No real sign of any cold between now and the 3rd week of November.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118142997#Comment_118142997

It's all very interesting when the models flip flop! When will there be a reasonable consensus?

esposito

My big fear is that this mild weather will continue into December and into most of January which to be honest is quite plausible as we’ve had many horror winters (from a coldies perspective) in recent times. Hated the winters of 16/17, 18/19, 19/20.

pauldry

Ya Winter doesn't really exist anymore just darkness and a few cold days. Most days are 8 to 14c in "Winter"

Birdnuts

I have a feeling things will "flip" at some stage over the coming months - just like we went from near record cold during April/May to a memorable summer this year.

Gonzo

The flip is bound to happen at some stage over the next 2 months. We are close to an uninterrupted 6 month warmer than average anomaly at the moment:

June, July, September and October were very much warmer than average. August was still warmer than average but only ever so slightly.

November is currently warmer than average by about a degree already and this may become considerably warmer than average within the next week.

December could be fairly mild too however the flip could occur just after Christmas or early January.

The Atlantic seems dead, so what brings warmth in summer could bring cold in winter.

id be happy enough with the dryness continuing.

almostthere12

The end of the ECM run this evening is looking positive for colder weather on the 20th, will be interesting to see if it continues that tomorrow!

Gonzo

GFS 12z also looking a little bit better. I think the most likely outcome is a big cold plunge will take place into central and eastern Europe during the 3rd week or 4th week of November and we will get a mainly dry and cool swipe for a day or so with high pressure just to our west keeping the real cold and unsettled conditions more towards Germany and down into eastern Europe and possibly Greece. At the same time if this comes off it may well lead to the first proper sightings of frost this season.

Tyrone212

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118147821#Comment_118147821

Yes. At least some interest to keep an eye on. Yesterday evenings runs were dire.

Nabber

Will be interesting to see how far the snow cover will encroach into Europe. Plenty built up so far across Russia.

last year or the year before (all a blur with Covid) we had a relatively good set up but there was a lack of depth to the cold pool in Europe at the time. It fizzled out.

pauldry

Looking at charts there's not much to get excited about yet.

Everyday I look there seems to be overriding mild weather like this week with some rain at times.

Then around the 20th to 24th November a cold spell of temperatures probably 7c by day but then back to the 10 to 13c nonsense and 8c nights.

So looked at CFS for a laugh but charts on it don't really change until 2022.

It's quite likely we will have one of the mildest Novembers (I think 2011 is the mildest but hard to get info) and we may even have one of the mildest December's too.

Gonzo

The long term models are mostly hinting at cold for January with zonality back in business for February so I'm guessing we may see a week or two of cold after Christmas. This November will most likely finish well above average temperatures and our Decembers are usually very mild too, particularly around Christmas. Even in the 1980's and early 1990's we rarely got snow before Christmas. November/December 2010 is really the only time I can remember proper wintry conditions before Christmas, so I'm not expecting much in the way of cold between now and Christmas other than maybe the odd brief toppler.

The current pattern of very mild south-westerlies and the Azores high ridging over us has been with us for the most part since the end of May so we appear stuck in this rut for now. We need a major pattern change to shift the current setup.

PukkaStukka

I've been watching GFS for the first time in a while this week. It has done as it's always done and thrown a cold teaser into the end of run a run only for it to disappear or be kicked down the road into a later time-frame in subsequent runs. 🙄

almostthere12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118150705#Comment_118150705

It has 2 attempts off it in the 6z with of course the last one being the biggest teaser!

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118150361#Comment_118150361

I love how quickly you are writing off whole months. Come on, keep the faith! We have a 4.5 month window ahead.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118150882#Comment_118150882

Not really writing off anything, just I think the main chance for wintry weather will be after Christmas/ early in the new year and possibly again in March. All we need is one week of decent cold to make winter memorable.

Nabber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118150882#Comment_118150882

March snow.. ok.. maybe.

but come April I want sunshine and dry days. As much as I love snow, I’d rather not see it that late.

pauldry

The old GFS pub run brings the gravy train down at the end of November. Does it think its 2010 oe something?

pauldry

Yup next run has sobered up or maybe I was drunk.....on sweets.

Mild for the whole run and record breaking mild November results.

Think I'll have to start my own average temperature blog for Sligo using Finner as a base for past couple of years as I can't seem to get the year to year information anywhere. Do you have to pay for it? Where do Oneric and sryanbreun get it?

PokeHerKing

The trend for the gfs this week is for at least 1 run to bring a cold northerly plunge around the 20th of Nov but then its completely gone on the next few runs. Time will tell I suppose.

Gonzo

At the moment the GFS in extended range is poor, can't even pick up a reliable trend as it keeps showing up outlier runs for cold or very mild. if you stripe away the very mild and cool outliers there is still a slight cooling trend towards the end of the month but nothing cold enough to get excited about with temperatures more average compared to the current theme of temperatures well above average.

The only way we would get decent cold this early is from a direct long fetch northerly with as slight NE tilt to it to get proper cold down from the pole without any Atlantic influence. It's too early in the season for a standard easterly with no cold pool built up yet on the continent. If we were to get an easterly over the next week or two it would probably result in rain or sleet at best and would most certainly be of rain along eastern coasts. I don't mind waiting another 3 to 4 weeks before the fun starts to give us a better chance of tapping into decent cold from the north and east.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118154993#Comment_118154993

Hear, hear!

pauldry

Ya might as well have a record breakingly mild November so the COP activists can say "see we told ye"

sryanbruen

First, get the silly out of the way as I think this is worth banking in the archive of fantasy land charts. The GFS 06z operational showed an exceptionally cold easterly to end November with snow showers into the east and a Channel Low delivering a rare November snowstorm for southern England.

Secondly, suddenly there does seem to be a signal emergence for mid-Atlantic ridging of some kind in the second half of November from the GFS ensembles and even the ECM ensembles rather than solely individual GFS operational runs which have been going nuts lately with the amplification. There is a trend for the NAO to go negative and means the weather is likely to go cooler which you'd expect given the time of year. However, that's all it is, a drop in temperature towards average or slightly below with northerly topplers the most likely solution from after next weekend based on current outlook. Looks largely dry and benign otherwise continuing the theme of this November and indeed most of this autumn too.