Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2021 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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01-09-2021 2:24pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Autumn 2021.
If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved or deleted- please use the Spring Discussion thread for general chat.
Thanks
After a sunny and warm week last week, it has turned noticeably cooler and very cloudy over the past few days. Despite upper air temperatures being decent, the temperatures here at the surface do not reflect the rather warm uppers.
This relatively cool and mostly cloudy setup looks like continuing for another few days. There may be a few short lived glimses of sunshine but these will be few and far between in most areas and temperatures generally mid teens but may get into the high teens or low twenties during spells of sunshine in western areas. We will hold onto the dry conditions until later in the weekend with rain coming back across Ireland from late Sunday into Monday. However I feel there is still a bit of uncertainty with this rain as high pressure tries to hold on into the first half of next week.
It may become warmer from Monday into Tuesday with an area of high pressure ridging over us and this time winds will be from a much milder south-westerly or southerly wind direction lifting temperatures back up in eastern and northern areas.
The ECM is also pushing towards a warmer week next week with a warm southerly or south-easterly drifting up off a warm continent.
The biggest question mark is what will happen to the weather from this Sunday. Will it turn more unsettled or could it turn potentially warmer and remaining dry with a few days of continental warmth and maybe one last blast of summer style weather and temperatures.
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It looks like it will turn warmer from this weekend after a rather cool and very cloudy week. We may get a heat spike on Tuesday with some very warm temperatures for the time of year. 25 or 26C is possible on Tuesday if there is decent spells of sunshine. It will still be warm on Wednesday but turning progressively cooler after that.
GFS tends to undercook temperatures by 2 or 3C so mid twenties possible on Monday and Tuesday.
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Quite wet and breezy on Sunday, windy for a time along Atlantic coasts as the cold front approaches , could be some squally rain going through across the country on Sunday and charts have been showing a possible increase in wind speeds along the Eastern half of the country especially more towards the coasts for a time later in the evening/night . Noticeable temperature change with cooler air following as the front clears.
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Models showing deep areas of LP nearby around Fri /Sat so possibly windy depending on track. UKMO showing a secondary Low developing and hints of that in the ECMWF also. ICON showing it deepening considerably but still far too early to know for sure. Could be our first true windy spell of Autumn, will see.
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Watching how this will develop over next weekend. Area of rapidly deepening low Pressure developing to the SW of Ireland and moving in a N or NE direction but which track is the question ?? I put it in here as it starts to develop before +120hrs .
No doubt the UKMO ,of the main models, is the strongest atm .
Too much uncertainty to know which track and how strong it will be but no doubt being watched closely by meteorologists on these islands. Could easily be a named storm.
Been watching ICON and it is throwing out some extreme charts over the last few runs but different tracks and timings with each run, latest one showing it very deep and tracking across Ireland and dumping huge amounts of rain with very strong winds . UKMO showing similar heavy rains just off and touching Western coasts and very strong winds. ECM the weakest for us atm as it brings the less developed system over the UK. GFS different again bringing strong winds into France much later. Early days and loads of time for lots of changes one way or the other but interesting to see how it develops and what will come of it.
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Models more aligned showing the deep area of LP for the most part not effecting Ireland on Sunday as it deepens to the E /NE of the UK but there are areas of disturbance associated with it that have the potential to bring some strong winds to some part of the country.
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Thurs night into Friday looking quite windy along the W, NW and N as a fast moving Lp swings close to Northern coasts and leaving a blustery day in its wake across the Northern half of the country. Showery , wettest in the NW.
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Getting milder as the week goes on and signs of it getting into the high teens or even 20C and looking very wet now along Atlantic coastal counties and wet into the Western half of the country as we get sandwiched between Lp to the W and Hp to the E in a brisk S'ly / SW'ly moisture laden humid airflow with a long fetch from mid latitudes.
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Another very mild day tomorrow and quite mild on Tuesday also before it cools down Weds, Thurs and Fri with low temps at night, might get a touch of frost in a few sheltered places inland in the latter half of the week.
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French models picking up quick moving disturbance's Weds night into early Thurs morning crossing the country, strongest winds in narrow bands on a track from the NW to the SE and skimming Northern counties, nothing major but isobars tightening to produce some windy weather for an hour or so as they transits fairly quickly .
ECM picking up an area of LP crossing Northern counties and bringing a windy spell to parts of Ulster and North Leinster for a few hours overnight Weds into early Thurs morning. Maybe windy enough to give a yellow warning for a short time in Donegal.
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Dodged the weather moving into Southern England and France. Some very windy and heavy rain in Cornwall this evening.
Bit of a difference in the model predictions for wind tonight and early morning for Ireland, ECM showing very windy for a time in the NW and moving across Northern counties and N Leinster, UKMO /EURO 4 brining the strongest winds into the W and moving in a SE direction, French models showing the SW getting clipped , ICON Flash like the UKMO. Nothing huge, could produce strong winds on the coasts for a short time and blustery overland, might hear it overnight
as has been so calm for such a long time.
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Quite a wet week overall starting overnight tonight into tomorrow and looks to linger in the W and showers along Atlantic coastal counties , rain band spreading again slowly across the country later Tuesday and pivoting over the country on Weds and possible another slow moving band of rain moving up over the country later Weds from the S into Thurs, maybe slow to clear the East. Further rain to follow later Thurs into Friday.
Some of the predicted 24hr rainfall totals and last one ( different colour scale ) a rough guide to what the total accumulation might look like but this of course subject to change one way or the other.
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UKMO turned up a stormy picture for later Fri into Sat morning, GFS is on it, ICON and ARPEGE look to be following suit ( a bit to go as ARPEGE just goes out to +114 hrs in the higher Res, ECM 0Z didn't have it , will be interesting to see what it shows when the 12Z comes out soon. Fast moving system on the current runs aided by a fast Jet. Have seen many twists and turns in the charts over the last few days, will see where this one goes.
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ECM showing it now also, moving like the clappers being steered by the fast Jet, tracking more East than the others, long way to go though as usual before any clear idea of strength and final track. Initially maybe as low as 975hPa as it approaches Scotland on a sprint from Iceland and filling thereafter.
Low temperatures and feeling raw in the wind. Could get some wintry showers from the along the N,NW, NE perhaps if it pulls in enough cold air with it
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ARPEGE and UKMO at this stage showing very severe winds Fri into Sat, next GFS very strong and then ECMWF 0Z more keeping the strong winds along the coasts and coastal areas, ICON for once showing the least strongest winds on its latest run . Bit to go yet, ECMWF 12Z coming out soon will be interesting.
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Yeah ECM seems to prolong the strong winds more well into Saturday, certainly looks very windy / stormy along the NW/ N and NE coasts, it has shifted the strongest winds in over Ireland since the last run . It looks savage cold also and latest run has a lot more wintry weather with hail, sleet , snow showers and thunderstorms possible..... just to add a bit more into the fray!
Would have to think at this stage that it will be at least very windy and cold with wintry showers.
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After a very dry November up to this point it will turn more unsettled from Friday with rain or showers along with strong winds. The rain/showers may turn wintry in places particularly over high ground from Friday evening and into Saturday with a mixture of rain, sleet and possibly wet snow.
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UKMO churning out some very extreme charts now for a number of runs, not going to say it is going to be as strong as currently shown but something is afoot.
ICON has been the weakest of the bunch so far but a bit stronger on the latest run, GFS a bit less strong on the latest run, would think that the ECM is about average of the bunch now.
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