New Housing for All Plan launched

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117855933#Comment_117855933

It normally ends up in a heated argument between two posters that goes downhill quickly and the thread gets locked!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117857754#Comment_117857754

The big shame is that we lost thousands of graduates to emigration after the 2008 crash and have spent the last few years trying to rebuild with immigrants from other nations.

To be honest most of the immigrants I know have no real desire to build a house or start a family here, they have come for the high wages and would be perfectly happy in an apt if they could rent one for decent money, this unfortunately gives them far more disposable income that a couple who want to stay in Ireland and are trying to save for a mortgage and have kids so they can stomach paying higher rents driving up prices.

I'm no expert but in Cork city at least a lot of its housing issues could be resolved by a few high density cost rental apt blocks with bus links to the city which would free up a lot of housing for families same as the student accommodation developments are doing.

Mr. teddywinkles

No one likes to say it but limit immigration drastically or at least throttle it back.

jill_valentine

There are at least a thousand apartments sitting unnoccupied in Dublin, which could house several thousand people and would be enough to affect the average cost of rent in the city (and thus housing generally, for several counties, in all directions) under functional market conditions.

Latching onto talk of undersupply or overpopulation is ludicrous when there's *that much* completely usable supply already inaccessible purely for reasons of economy.

So long as we keep implementing policies that inflate property values, we're just going to keep building more stuff to put money in, lock up, and leave empty. Doesn't matter how much housing we have or how many people we need to get into it, the relationship between the two is already abstracted.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117858684#Comment_117858684

We are part of the EU, that means freedom of movement, so we can't limit immigration.

Here are my suggestions:

encourage the immigration of Irish builders who emigrated in the past

severely restrict non-EU immigration

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117858545#Comment_117858545

I'm not sure that the native Irish population is actually growing at all. In most European states, the native population is is demographic decline. In fact, one of the arguments usually given to suppose immigration, and it's not at all unreasonable, is that a proliferation of youth will be and is necessary to care for the elderly as they continue to age. There are problems with this that I would point out, but demographics is not the topic of this thread.

Supply and demand is the problem, and one never exists without the other. There is a excessive demand for a commodity that is not met by the supply thereof. Thus, prices rise. Accommodation is indeed being built, but the gap between supply and demand continues to exist.

What you seem to be saying is that supply can be increased through more immigration because immigrants pay more taxes. I'm not aware that that is so, but even if it is true, more people means more demand. With respect, how is that sustainable?

RichardAnd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117858792#Comment_117858792

I can't find the source (I'll look later!), but I do recall reading that EU migration actually makes up little of the total net migration to Ireland. Thus, severely restricting non-EU migration would yield results.

Geuze

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/population/populationandmigrationestimates/

See table 1.3

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117858601#Comment_117858601

State infrastructure, renovations, and more houses - there will never be enough

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117858601#Comment_117858601

By the time we have enough houses in this country these people will have left again because of the inevitable crash that will follow

rob316

You should be nailed to the wall with tax if your holding vacant properties. That alone would stimulate supply and bring prices down quicker

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117868543#Comment_117868543

What changes are coming for the fair deal scheme in the Housing plan? Finding it hard to see anything concrete (pun unintended)

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117859008#Comment_117859008

To paraphrase, "immigrants who MIGHT be building homes.." and then, based on that nugget, the speculation that they're paying more taxes than average and then that goes toward building more homes indirectly.

That's some amount of speculation right there. And I'll wager there's sweet FA in terms of statistics to back it up.

The problem isn't supply, the problem is demand. A finite resource in competition with an infinite resource presents a single outcome. And that's why we are where we are, and will continue to be so.

Sierra Oscar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117868543#Comment_117868543

Aren't a lot of these derelict sites in the likes of large urban areas plagued by uncertainty as to who actually owns the site and so on? Usually involving complex inheritance disputes spanning different generations, foreign inheritors and so on and so forth. Such a tax will do nothing to alleviate these problems to be honest. Arguably the only real way forward would be to allow the State to CPO derelict sites, but that would probably require complex legal change including constitutional reform. There doesn't appear to be any political will to go there whatsoever.

There are many sites that have been derelict for 20+ years and much, much longer in some cases. If it was a case of a greedy hoarder waiting for the best moment to cash in then they have had plenty of times to sell up and make a pretty penny over the years.

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117881565#Comment_117881565

That's some amount of nebulous shyte there.

"Some work in our hospitals", and a special mention for "Google's" wow. Well if that isn't an excuse for a housing crisis, I don't know what is. So many facts and numbers.

"As was clearly shown earlier..." Nothing was shown earlier. Nothing. Never mind "clearly". The fact is that EU migration is relatively low. Fact. You know what fact means? Fact. That's a fact. Truth. ~80% of migration into the country (CSO 2020) was from outside the European Union. A fact. A truth.

Have you any facts or figures, statistics or proof? No, I won't be holding my breath. No, it's all nonsense you're spouting that has the solidity of belched air.

As for the "whistling" paranoia that all the pod people seem to ooze, no, it's the facts that have you screaming and pointing *must prevent factual discussionaarrrgghh*

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117892121#Comment_117892121

You say: "You know what fact means? Fact. That's a fact. Truth. ~80% of migration into the country (CSO 2020) was from outside the European Union. A fact. A truth."

CSO Says: "Non-Irish nationals from outside the EU continued to display strong migration flows, accounting for 30,400 (35.6%) of total immigrants"

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117892247#Comment_117892247

Yes that's true, but if you bothered to actually look at the data, rather than take conveniently scripted sentences, you'll find that NET migration, from the tables in your link, is....

3k from UK

19k from rest of world

Total Net migration 28.9k

So adding 3+19 =22, and 22k as a percentage of 28.9 provides 76.12%

So, my apologises for not including the word NET, I am absolutely positive that you had no ulterior motive in trying to present cooked numbers as a "gotcha". None.

But now we're all the on the same page, so as I said before, ~80% net are migrants from outside the EU for 2020 from the CSO.

And given that it is oft declared that "there's nothing we can do about EU migration", and that 300k dwelling units are proposed, while an expected 360k migrants are to be allowed in during the exact same time period...I call that a sickening joke as a "solution" to the housing crisis.

But let's not leave it at 2020 alone. Let's see what the net migration was for other years too. Why not.

2014: an overall net negative loss of 8.5k people total. 22k of which were Irish leaving, while 8.8k were non eu entering. That's approximately 200%

2015: overall net gain of 5.9k. While 13.1k were from rest of world. That's 222%

2016: 75% net migration from outside EU.

2017: 79%

2018: 61%

2019: 57%

2020: 76.12%

So, on average, the net migration into Ireland since 2014 is, accounted by non-eu is....111.5%....im doing this on the fly, but... Wtf?

The variance by going over 100% is accounting for the net loss, ie EU emigrants leaving versus non-eu immigrants arriving.

I'm actually doubting myself at that whopper. If that's true, and I have my doubts, that's criminal. I invite anyone else to analyse the numbers to verify.

Separately, this isn't about vilifying people, it's about an underhanded governance.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117892356#Comment_117892356

It's a strange calculation NET on Nationality level, for various reasons.

Note that the percentage are falling. For the years of 2009 to 2015 NET immigration used to be 100% none-EU nationals

lossless

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117892482#Comment_117892482

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117892356#Comment_117892356

I did a few more calculations in an edit that you wouldn't have seen.

You are correct (in one way) that net migration from outside the EU was 100% in some years. However, when compared against net loss of eu migrants, those numbers are near 200% and above in some cases.

They were falling, to a low of 61%, but then increased again recently.

This is madness. I never want to hear the excuse of "it's the EU people, so hands tied" nonsense ever again.

This is deliberate. A government(s) promising to fix a housing crisis, while out of sight they are inviting a gigantic cohort of people into the country at the same exact time. People that they have zero legal obligation to invite.

Maybe they have "essential skills" that can't be filled by the appx 450 million people within the EU. Yeah, not suspect at all.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117878698#Comment_117878698

Apparently the government's plan is to send out a letter to all houses asking people to declare if the house is vacant or not, not exactly sure how that is meant to work unless they are hoping An Post will do all the work for them and return all the letters posted to houses that have no windows or doors never mind a post box 🙄

And like you say its very difficult to find out who owns a property that doesn't have its deed registered with the land registry and even then it might say "John Smith, 123 Fake street" and that's the exact house that is in ruin!

The law needs to allow local councils to CPO properties after say a 6 month period of putting signs on it, ads in the paper, all due diligence etc and no-one coming forward and then auction them off with the caveat that they have to be utilised within 2 years or some penalty charge will apply.

Sunny Disposition

I was concerned that the thread I started was shut down.

It’s worrying if you can’t even discuss immigration. Shutting down debate is a dangerous road to go and it will backfire eventually.

By no means am I anti immigrant, I was an immigrant for years myself, arrived in London as a teenager that people might understandably have felt had little to offer, but ended up employing hundreds of people and building a few thousand houses.

There is no question immigration is a factor in the housing crisis, it’d be absurd to state otherwise, totally absurd. It’s not racist to say it either, it’s as obvious as saying Wednesday follows Tuesday.

In a generation Ireland has gone from a country of very few immigrants to having 13% of the population being foreign nationals. Of course you can argue that is a very positive thing either socially or economically or both, but saying it’s not a major factor in the Irish housing market is simply ridiculous. Clearly Ireland is struggling to house everyone and it’s not surprising given the changes here since the mid 90s.

There’s no question many immigrants are outstanding people, I employ a few of them, great workers, friendly, honest as the day is long. But that doesn’t mean that all the macro economic effects of immigration are inevitably positive ones.

Sunny Disposition

Another few thoughts.

The current crisis is seeing a backlash against people who make objections. This is very wrong, Ireland has terrible planning, villages all along the west coast are being ruined, the cities already have plenty of ghettos through badly planned developments, people should be encouraged to make submissions about their local built environment.

Ireland really has a terrible record already, especially in rural areas, and it is being compounded now. With prices out of control proper planning is being seen as an inconvenience, not something that’s essential.

The SF spokesmans comments about smaller landlords are deeply unfair and will probably see more people exit the market when the next election comes in the horizon.

The State needs to be far more active in the construction sector, but lessons have to be learned from the many disasters of the 60s, 70s and 80s, no more ghettoes please.

L1011

Sunny Disposition - do not attempt to reopen a closed thread in this manner. Do not discuss moderation on thread. Any further attempts to do either will result in sanctions.

Do not reply to this post.

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117922099#Comment_117922099

Ireland's economic recovery has been massively driven by immigration, when the news reports on Google opening a new office creating 500 skilled jobs where do you think most of those people come from? That's an extra 500 people on say an average €40k a year each contributing directly and indirectly massively to the Irish economy and we didn't have to pay a single euro to put them through college or subsidise raising them to be a productive adult in any way, massive net gain for us.

The issue is that one hand of the government has been attracting all this new investment and jobs without giving any consideration to where these people are going to live for years, so the other hand is holding up houses and apts in planning and making them far more expensive with new building regulations every year.

I see it clearly in Cork City, loads of new fancy office blocks being built but no apt blocks as they are not viable due to build costs or held up for years in planning, objectors and fire cert arguments, there a reason the government had to allow big developments go straight to ABP because local councils are useless at dealing with anything in a decent timeframe.

L1011

Immigration is off topic here. Stop replying about it.