If the Social Democrats were in Sinn Fein's place

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117961000#Comment_117961000

Uh - Lowry was booted out of FG like 20 years ago. Totally agree he should not be a TD - thanks Tipperary.

skimpydoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117961269#Comment_117961269

He is still being investigated.

McMurphy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117961276#Comment_117961276

I never mentioned anything about him and FG, only that he was still a TD.... Bit of an eagerness to defend FG there GT. Guilty Coney? 😝

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117955289#Comment_117955289

I think there's fair chance SF will be in a position to form a 'broad left' government without the involvement of FF or FG.

Ten of Swords

Let's stick to discussing SF and SD as per the op, there is a thread dedicated to FF/FG already

generic_throwaway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117961313#Comment_117961313

He's not FG. He was kicked out decades ago for corruption. If you are making some other point, I don't know what it is.

Anyway, out of respect for the mod's instruction, let's get back to SF and SD.

J.O. Farmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117961343#Comment_117961343

For that to happen FF and FG would need to lose around 35 seats be between them to be picked up by SF and others likely to be part of a broad left coalition.

This would assume the greens are going to be part of the next government and they've had their best ever election, they will do well to hold what they have in numbers nevermind make gains.

If we say SF can gain 20 seats (I don't think they will, I don't think any party will get to 50) this leaves 15 to be picked up by the likes of SD and Labour or perhaps PBP but I don't expect them in the next government, they're a real protest vote (they'd probably protest against doubling of SW rates as it still wouldn't be enough).

Outside of Dublin and perhaps a couple of other urban areas it's hard to see many of those 15 seats being picked up. Within the urban areas those 15 seats are going to be competing against SF second seats.

In rural 3 and 4 seaters there won't be many second seats either for any party. In 4 seaters it'll likely be 1,1,1 and maybe a second seat for someone (not necessarily SF) or an independent. In 3 seaters in some constituencies it'll be an independent with 2 seats divided between SF, FF and FG with independents coming into the mix in places, I can't see many second seats for anyone in those constituencies.

Now SF may get to numbers where a minority government propped up from opposition by FF or FG is a real possibility. Would either party want to do it. They'd get all the blame of letting SF into government with none of the benefits. More likely they would seek to be part of the government and frame themselves as the watchdog in government as the PDs did for years.

Best bet on the next government will be SF/FF and another party or 2 depending on the numbers. Could be the greens, labour or SD. I don't think PBP would be able to agree a programme for government.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117962092#Comment_117962092

I'm assuming if the numbers were there to form a non-FF/FG government, every faction of the left, including PBP, would ultimately row in behind it because they would be under huge pressure from their grassroots. On that basis the numbers are very nearly there already, the difficulty being how many of the 19 independents could reasonably be described as left/progressive. But even if you just took the imaginatively named Independent Group, that would get you to 75 TDs. So clearly my calculus of how much turnover of seats is required to enable an SF-led coalition is a bit different from yours...

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117962204#Comment_117962204

Even if they could be convinced to row in behind it, they'd still not vote for a budget.

Only about five of the Independents would ever support such a Government. Too much gravy to be got by backing a minority setup of the others.

J.O. Farmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117962255#Comment_117962255

I think this would be the problem with trying to get every faction of the left to form a government, they might agree on a Taoisech but I doubt they could agree on anythingelse especially a budget.

As Brendan Behan said the first item on the agenda of any new Irish organisation was the split and with any government with that many factions it'd be 3 of the top 4 items. This is especially true with the left. Just look at the history of people before profit or whatever they'll be calling themselves at the next election.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117962834#Comment_117962834

The 'United Left Alliance' government may not last very long but I'm still convinced it would be formed if the numbers were there, even barely. There would be an awareness on all shades of the left that it would be a first time in a century opportunity that may not come round again for a very long time.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117963270#Comment_117963270

If the Greens and FG can reconcile partnering with Fianna Fail, anything should be on the table. Especially now we know FF and FG are happy to partner.

I would like to see one party with a strong enough majority in the mix though. Too many with the same amount of seats wouldn't last.

Pawwed Rig

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117963779#Comment_117963779

FF can seem to match whatever party they are hooking up with. You could nearly see them in coalition with any party across the spectrum. The real divide now is between FG and SF. I cannot see them going into government together in the medium or long term.

The next election will be interesting for SF. Some of their elected TDs have been found severely wanting so may not get another go but if SF can identify those and replace them with a stronger candidates they may hold seats. Dumping an incumbent might cause all sorts of problems though

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117964058#Comment_117964058

If SF went into coalition with FG or FF it would put them back down to single digits IMO. Whatever about the sham of the FF/FG rivalry, anyone looking to SF won't be supportive of more FF or FG. It will be difficult without them unless FF and FG perform as poorly as FG did.

If the SD's up their profile they might pick up some more seats.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117964244#Comment_117964244

I have to agree with you. Sinn Fein are the party of permanent protest and whinging. Going into government exposes that there is nothing beneath that surface, so they would be back down in single digits.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117964261#Comment_117964261

You misunderstand. Like many politicians after the last election there was a call to not go in with FF/FG. I for one would not like to vote for SF/PBP/SD etc. only to have FF or FG slip back in.

Like the Greens? Many of us have had a belly full of FF/FG.

Galwayguy35

How many people who voted SF in the last election or are intending to vote for them in the next one actually know what their policies are though I wonder.

I've a feeling it might be half at best and the other half voted SF to give FF/FG a bit of a kicking.

There is a good chance they will be in Government at some point but I can't see the hard left going in to coalition with them, I mean seriously does any left leaning poster here want to see the likes of Brid Smith or Mick Barry anywhere near a Government Dept making decisions that might affect them.

BBP etc don't want to have to make unpopular desisions anyway, its much easier criticise from the opposition side and tell their voters they are entitled to everything and should pay for nothing.

J.O. Farmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117964261#Comment_117964261

A lot of unknowns, depending on how long the this government lasts and how the economy goes in the next few years could make or break them.

If things get bad SF may get into power just as everything gets a bounce again. On the other hand it could be that they get in as things go from bad to worse. Some of these things are a matter of luck.

FF still get blamed for destroying the economy, truth is had FG been elected in 2007 things might not have been much different and they would be blamed for destroying the economy.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117964707#Comment_117964707

Is this the 'Lehman's did it' school of thought?

We had our own crash well on the way. The global one just quickened it. House of cards, 'boom will get boomier' and so on. It was a clear case of the Irish finances new clothes.

Don't forget the poor regulations, special loans and moving money from Billy to jack.

Pawwed Rig

I can see SF and FF merging at some point in the future tbh. I think we are seeing the swan song of FF as a major party. The future will be FG and SF.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117964987#Comment_117964987

Not likely, especially if FG's voting patterns continue on the decline.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117965040#Comment_117965040

If SF emerge as the dominant party then the laws of political gravity demand there will be a strong counterpoint to them. And among current parties of any significance, FG are by far the best placed to be that counterpoint.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117964987#Comment_117964987

SF have yet to do a single day in government. They are certainly not at the height of their pomp anymore but I wouldn't write off FF yet.

J.O. Farmer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117964957#Comment_117964957

No this is FF and FG were both going to fuel the boomier boom regardless of who was in power school of thought. FG were lucky Bertie won that last election in 2007.

In the years leading up to the crash I don't recall FG calling for prudence, if anything the criticism was about having unspent surpluses.

I don't recall FG pushinging for tighter banking regulations at the time either. Was anyone in the Dail even aware of the practices prior to 2008.

CDarby

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117966427#Comment_117966427

Someone needs to tell that to Michaél and Leo, as they seem to think they have.

Each time one of the two are presented with an uncomfortable truth about how badly either or are doing here, the answers usually along the theme of "you're in government in the north".

The shared executive isn't really government though, it's more trying to herd cats, but doesn't stop Tweedle Dum/Dee regardless.

Pawwed Rig

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117966420#Comment_117966420

That was also my thought. I just cannot see a place for FF in the long term. They are going to be the middle ground to a (slightly) right of centre party and a left wing party. A vote for them in an election could be a vote for either SF or FG as FF will jump into bed with anyone. I couldn't see a situation where there was a FG/SF coalition with FF in opposition.

That is why (imo) FF are a spent force.

As for the SDs I was genuinely interested in them early on as a new force in politics however at this stage I cannot see that they add anything other than whinging. A merger with the labour party would seem like the best idea but my sense is that they will just fade away over time as an irrelevance.

Ten of Swords

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117966539#Comment_117966539

@J.O. Farmer Miss the mod note a few posts above huh? Don't post in this thread again

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117967341#Comment_117967341

The Soc Dems should survive, they have a lot of friends in the media and most accurately represent the WOKE left demographic , they are very similar to both Labour and the Green Party though so it's a crowded space vying for middle class progressive voters

cute geoge

On watching the week in polotics both Holly Cairns and Garry Gannon really impressed me ,probably the most eloquent and concise of the newcomers TD's .Having them placed in prominent positions on topical issues will be sure to gain more support fot the S.D. Catherine Murphy is not dynamic to increase the popularity of the party and Roisin Shortall is passed it at this stage

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117968916#Comment_117968916

Neither Murphy nor Shortall will go quietly.

Even if one of them doesn't run in the next GE, they will likely hold the co-leader position to the very end.