What are your thoughts on the fertiliser price s for 2022

Reggie.

Local coop here is full to the gills with bags of fert

Grueller

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119059184#Comment_119059184

Heard second hand that CAN is available at €750 off a local merchant here that has a lot of unsold stock. Pay on the day.

Hershall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119059184#Comment_119059184

Same here local co-op yard full of fertiliser for the last month

Reggie.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119059752#Comment_119059752

So the auld shortage was bullshit it seems. Same as the diesel fuel

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119059848#Comment_119059848

If similar quantities had been bought compared to 2021 their would of been shortages, but the beef man for the most part simply hasn't bought half the usual quantities, and the dairy men have in most cases nearly a seasons supply already in the yard , the silage scheme might encourage some extra buying of product, but I reckon their could be good value to be got come late August for unsold fertilizer

Reggie.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119059900#Comment_119059900

But sure it was quoted back in Feb that if every dairy farmer bought his full supply in spring all fert supplies would be gone by June with no resupply in place.

Sure only last week wasn't one fert companies reporting something like 1bn profit extra already this year with same or less product sold as opposed to last year

Are people only buying what they want this year or planning for next year already? Looking to reseed next spring, should I buy 10.10.20 now? Price I don’t see changing, more worried about fert going hard/off till then and getting it when I want. I’ve bought a few tonne to do me till late spring 2023. Had few bags left over from last year go hard.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119081346#Comment_119081346

I be reluctant fir the exact reason you outline. It's unlikely that fertilizer will be any dearer next spring than at present.

Fine Day

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119082435#Comment_119082435

Anything possible in the current climate. 18 6 12 with sulfur is €950 today. Was €350 last year. Who says it won't be €1500 next year.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119109436#Comment_119109436

And who says it will be. There was two reasons it was so expensive this year. The main reason was that fertilizer manufacturers sold the gas they had forward purchased ( in very early 2021) last summer. The price had climbed so.much they decided that they would not make as much money producing fertilizer.

The Ukraine war added to the problem. Could fertlizer be more expensive. However RD99 said he was afraid that it would go hard in the yard as it happened to him before.

Now would I buy fertilizer for next year and stack it in the yard. I be very slow with the present prices. EU manufacturers will be unlikely to forward sell there gas this year. It put the spotlight on them this year as they have a protected market. Fertlizer imports are levied to protect them. If they repeat last year's stunt it's likely levies on imported fertilizer will disappear.

Already there is rumours of prices softening. Fertlizer in Independent merchants yards is dropping in price accordingly to some here.

Fine Day

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119109563#Comment_119109563

I hope you are right but with what we are seen anything is possible. There is alot of factors contributing to price increase in energy. Alot of stuff going on the n the world It's a real whirlwind setup now.

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119118445#Comment_119118445

Got two ton of 24.2.2.4.4 3% sulphur their today in local glanbia was 935 on account

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119118445#Comment_119118445

Check the independent merchants. Most of these had stock on a sale or return basics. The stocked from.the fertlizer companies who set the price. There is rumours that some of these are dropping prices. Have not had to price any as I bought in January and early February.

minerleague

Why would fertilizer companies reduce prices with farmers still buying at these prices?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119119040#Comment_119119040

it would depend on the level of stock they had. As a lot was delivered to merchants yards and they controlled the price it would depend on the amount any one company had in yards all over the country as well as in there own yards. Demand has definately slumped. The co-ops will have pre bought and have what ever stock they have in hand. However fertlizer companies will not want to be hauling stock back from merchants uyards or between merchants. As well they will not want to carryover stock to next year. In 6-8 months time the if the Russian/Ukraine war is over nobody knows which way prices for different commodities will go.

Easten

Prices had dropped back to €900 for cut sward but it's gone back up over €1,000 again.

Doesn't bother me now as I'm not buying, it's organics all the way from now on.

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119119167#Comment_119119167

Couple of hundred ton sitting in Local co-ops yard but what's gas is alot of it was silage mixes, compounds like 10:10:20 and alot of straight urea not protected, very little of it moving chatting yard lad, and they where trying to send alot of it back like you alluded to above, their will be value got come late August I reckon, what really boiled my piss was about 12 ton of can that they wouldn't sell to us last September that's now sitting in the corner of the yard unsaleable as it's hard as concrete after been left outside for the winter/spring you couldn't make it up

Siamsa Sessions

Grass growth has been good up to now. This will hardly encourage people to spread more fertiliser so I can’t see demand increasing.

Maybe merchants might reduce prices to move stock? Especially if the fertiliser companies don’t want to take it back but are looking for the money owed on what they’ve already supplied to the merchants.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119119474#Comment_119119474

I made the point last Autumn of the risk with storing fertlizer outside. While it may be ok any damage to the plastic will see bags go hard. If water enters that is it. The only option is to break it up and throw it into you slurry tank.

Waffletraktor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119119474#Comment_119119474

With malting Barley up around 450/t and Wheat going to be 350+ what way does fert carry over affect Tax bills as i'd imagine most lads would look to buy forwar and cover it out of the grain account this year at that time.

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119119167#Comment_119119167

Gas isn't going to be significantly cheaper by the spring, dearer if anything. So there's pretty much a backstop on how low prices can go.

Local merchants might get burnt and lose their margin. But all that will do is make them more wary of committing to anything next year.

Not the best scenario

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119124977#Comment_119124977

Are you talking about last year or this year. Strictly speaking you should put it as a carry over asset on the accounts. I have done it once or twice bough before Christmas and put it in that year's accounts.

However s lot depends on when they bought fertlizer this year. As well you will have way higher diesel and fertlizer bills this year

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119125073#Comment_119125073

Well if you feel sure you are right get out the cheque book and forward buy 30/50/100% of next year's requirements.

Gas price was not the only reason fertlizer was expensive. It was that European manufacturers only made 20-30% of there normal amount last year.

If 3-4 miller's closed in the locality do you think it would effect the price of rations. If every contractor in the county shut down do you think it would effect price. Gas was not the total problem.

At present wholesale gas in the UK is first cheap due to storage issues. I am sure that if fertlizer companies have storage they will be buying from them at present if that can store it

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119125073#Comment_119125073

They may decide to buy stock with farmers money, in that the farmer would decide what they want for the year and pay for it before a merchant orders anything.

yosemitesam1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119125106#Comment_119125106

Where do you see prices going over the coming year?

straight

Fertilizer Prices Just Fell 30% in One Day, Farmers Saw Prices Skyrocket 133% in a Year

https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/crop-production/fertilizer-prices-just-fell-30-one-day-farmers-saw-prices-skyrocket-133

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119125887#Comment_119125887

I am not sure. They could go up or down. If they go up commodities will more than likely follow them up in price. If the go dow the opposite could happen. If you look at dairy farmers who are tied to fixed prices with inputs rising sharply.

James2022

Fertiliser will slowly go down over the summer, raise up again in the Autumn and be in a worse position next Spring than this year.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119133995#Comment_119133995

Is that what the Crystal ball says

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119136938#Comment_119136938

Fertilizer demand in its main market, Asia has peaked and will go down till a rise again in September for the second main crop.

America has peaked in use, after Spring.

Western Europe is only 10% of the global market. It's going to have seen peak use already.

It's very hard to see cheaper gas anywhere in the world next winter.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119136972#Comment_119136972

Gas price was not the total issue last year. It was also down to the fact that European fertlizer decided do sell there contracted gas